C.J. Spiller – RB Clemson

Overview

C.J. Spiller is the most dangerous running back in the draft this year, as he can do pretty much anything he wants out on the field.  His world-class speed, vision, and elusiveness make him a threat to take it to the house on any given play, whether it’s on a handoff out of the backfield or catching balls out of the slot position.  C.J. also returned kickoffs and punts last year, and was the only player in the NCAA to score a touchdown in every game of the 2009 season.  His overall production led him to set records for both Clemson and the NCAAs, as he is the only player in college football history to gain 3,000 yards rushing, 2,000 yards on kickoff returns, 1,000 yards receiving, and 500 yards on punt returns over his career.  His skill-set makes him worthy of a first-round pick, though he’s not likely to start out as an every-down back at the next level due to his lack of size and short-yardage capabilities.

Pyro’s Take

Spiller has commonly been compared to former USC star and current Saints RB Reggie Bush, and for good reason.  They have the same build and can both do it all out on the field, but Spiller isn’t afraid to run it up the middle while also possessing the willingness to stand up to much larger linemen and linebackers in pass protection.  He also did not record a fumble throughout his four years at Clemson.  We see Spiller’s floor as being at least a Leon Washington, with a ceiling of becoming the next Chris Johnson.  The kid is simply electrifying.

Fantasy Value

This all depends on where he goes in the draft.  If he goes to a team like Seattle, he could end up as the starter real quick and would have really nice fantasy value going into the 2010 season.  If he finds himself in a city like San Francisco, he’ll be a backup/3^rd-down back and won’t be more than a handcuff next year.  Spiller has all the ability in the world, so wherever he goes, his skills will eventually shine through and make him useful for your fantasy squad both this year and beyond.

Ryan Mathews – RB Fresno State

Overview

Even though Mathews missed one full game and parts of others during his 2009 campaign, he still came in second to Toby Gerhart in rushing yards with 1,808 this past season.  Some will say his numbers were inflated due to the lack of competition he faced playing for Fresno State in the WAC, but even when he did face elite teams, his numbers were still on par with his games against lesser talented teams.  He has plus size and strength for a running back, yet still has the speed and agility to get to the outside and cause havoc for defenses.  One of his best attributes is his determination, as he regularly breaks tackles anywhere on the field and does well as a blocker in pass protection.  He might be the most complete back in this year’s draft and should be taken somewhere in the bottom half of the first round.

Pyro’s Take

We’re not completely sold on Mathews just yet, as injuries seem to strike him more than most and we have yet to see what he can do against elite talent for a full year.  However, if he can stay healthy, we believe he has the necessary tools to be a successful RB in the NFL as a mid-tier, every-down back.  He’s a humble kid who works for what he gets, which transfers well going into the pros.  Whichever team gets him late in the first round, he’s sure to be popular with his teammates and a favorite among his coaches.

Fantasy Value

Projected as a late first-round pick, he’ll obviously be playing for a probable playoff contender next year.  If he goes to a team with an established RB like Green Bay, he’ll be groomed for the future and live as a backup all year, which leaves him with little worth for 2010 but promising for dynasty leagues.  If he gets snatched up by a team like the Chargers, he could very well step into the starting role immediately and have some high-end potential both in 2010 and years beyond.

Jonathan Dwyer – RB Georgia Tech

Overview

Even though it appears he hurt his stock a bit at the combine, Dwyer will still get snatched up somewhere before the middle of the second round.  His less than stellar 40-yd dash wasn’t all that surprising (unofficially clocked anywhere from 4.57-4.74 range), but his lack of muscular structure and fluidity within the drills has some scouts concerned.  The reality is, Dwyer is a bruiser that runs well on the inside and breaks tackles better than most, so to expect differently would simply devalue his strengths.  He can get to the outside and outrun linebackers when needed, but he projects to be more of a Cedric Benson/Jonathan Stewart type one-cut runner.

Pyro’s Take

It’s tough to nail down exactly what Dwyer will turn into on the pro level, as it seems the second anyone has a good read on him, he completely changes form.  He was a sprinter coming out of high school at barely 200 lbs, then two years and 40+ lbs later, he ends up as a fullback in Georgia Tech’s option offense.  “Diesel” lost about 15 lbs for the combine weighing out at 229 lbs, which looks to be the perfect playing weight for him at this point.  Our bet is that San Diego takes a long hard look at him with the 28^th pick, and if that falls through, he goes to either Seattle, New England, or Houston in the 2^nd thus becoming a steal for that team.

Fantasy Value

Dwyer has the opportunity to become an impact fantasy player his rookie season if taken by a team with running back needs, which we believe he will.  His pass-catching skills out of the backfield has yet to be determined, but the word is that he has soft hands and simply never got to use them in Georgia Tech’s scheme.  If this is the case, “Diesel” could be an every-down type of back with a huge plus in the TDs category due to his size and short-yardage capabilities.  Think Jonathan Stewart in 2008.

Jahvid Best – RB California

Overview

A lot came down to how Best performed at the combine, and the California Bear would not disappoint.  After suffering a devastating concussion that kept him out of the final four games last season, scouts were wondering if Jahvid would come back looking the same.  His solid 199-lb build settled some of the nerves at first sight, and then Best took off running.  A staggering 4.35 in the 40-yd dash impressed enough people to put him back into the top echelon of this year’s RB crop after falling out of favor due to the concussion.  He’s the same type of back as C.J. Spiller – electric in the open field, elusive near contact, faster than most everyone on the field at any given time, and able to score from anywhere.  His size and durability are a bit of a concern, and he doesn’t project to be much more than a third-down back/return specialist, but he should be taken in the top-50 when all is said and done.

Pyro’s Take

His speed, agility, size and ankle-breaking moves on the field have us thinking poor-man’s Barry Sanders, but that could be a little high-reaching at this point.  He should be able to make some noise as a return specialist and third-down back next year, depending on the needs of the team that drafts him.  If he were somehow able to gain 10 lbs and still play at the same speed, we’d have him going in the top-10 of the draft.  However, his (lack of) size, inside running and blocking abilities has him falling outside the first round for us. 

Fantasy Value

Like C.J. Spiller, his value completely depends on where he goes in the draft.  If he goes to a team lacking a true starter, he could put up a good fight for the role and come out with some decent fantasy value in 2010.  However, his true value next year is likely as special teamer as both a return man and a gunner.  No matter where he goes, his big-play capability will assure him of at least some third-down work, but it might not be enough to up his value to the point of usability on your fantasy team next year.

Sam Bradford - QB Oklahoma

Overview

Bradford would have likely gone to the Detroit Lions over Matthew Stafford with the #1 overall pick in last year’s draft, but instead, he opted to stay in school to try and win a National Championship for his beloved Sooners. Things did not go quite as he planned. In Oklahoma’s first game of the season against BYU, Bradford would sprain his throwing shoulder, causing him to miss the team’s next three games. He returned to beat Baylor in Week 5, but re-injured the shoulder against Texas the following week and would miss the remainder of the season. Bradford could have returned to Oklahoma for another shot at the title in 2010, but after a successful surgery performed by Dr. James Andrews, he decided to work toward the NFL Draft instead. His reputation as a leader, a winner, and a premier athlete still has him ranked as the top option at QB on essentially everyone’s board.
 

Pyro’s Take

We believe he'll go #1 overall to the Rams, as they recently passed on both Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez the past 2 drafts. St. Louis is in desperate need of a leader, and Bradford fits the bill. If all the doctors that are sure to be consulted give Sam and his repaired shoulder a thumbs-up, consider this pick a done deal. If not, then the Rams will have no problem snatching up either Suh or McCoy, and Bradford will be left on the board for either the Redskins at #4 or Buffalo at #9.
 

Fantasy Value

Bradford’s fantasy potential is intriguing. If he goes to the Rams, which we fully expect, he'll be a starter from Day 1 and could make for a decent fantasy backup QB. With the ridiculous amounts of money these first-round QBs are getting paid these days, teams can’t afford to have them sitting on the bench learning the game from the wings. If he goes to either the Redskins or the Bills, he might not start from the get-go, but will eventually get his chance as the main man as neither Jason Campbell nor Trent Edwards look like they’ll ever be able to get the job done at the pro level. If this happens, Bradford won’t have the same fantasy value as he would on the Rams, but should still be drafted on the chance he gets a shot later in the season.

Jimmy Clausen – QB Notre Dame

Overview

Clausen chose to attend Notre Dame instead of USC for one reason: head coach Charlie Weis. So when Weis was fired last December, Clausen decided it was time to move on as well and applied for early entry into the NFL Draft. Playing under a former NFL offensive coordinator for three years at ND gave Jimmy the experience at running a pro-style offense that NFL teams love to see. His poise in pressure situations and “love-of-the-game” type of leadership has him ranked just below Bradford on most team’s draft boards, with a few even seeing him as a better prospect down the road.

Pyro’s Take

We can’t envision a scenario where Clausen drops out of the top-15, and he could end up going as high as #4 to the Redskins if Bradford gets taken by the Rams. His maturity has been questioned in the past, but we believe that the jump to the next level will even out his head enough to humble his fiery tendencies. His tools aren’t quite what Bradford’s are, but should progress enough over the next couple of seasons to have a lasting career at the pro level.

Fantasy Value

Clausen is the most NFL-ready quarterback of the bunch in terms of knowledge and understanding of the game, but his skills could take some time to catch up to his head. He’ll get a chance to start at some point next season, but it’s not likely to be in Week 1 unless a team desperate for a QB (such as Buffalo at #9) snags him. He should be drafted, but don’t expect too much out of him in 2010. He is, however, a great pick for dynasty leagues.

Colt McCoy – QB Texas                     

Overview

For the past two years, Colt McCoy was at the top of the list of contenders for the Heisman Trophy, but failed to come away with the hardware.  His second place voting in 2008 and third place voting this past year speak volumes about his consistency, but that won’t be enough to gain first-round status in the upcoming draft.  Even though McCoy is a natural leader who left the college game with an overall record of 45-8 (3-1 in Bowl games and the most wins ever for a college QB), his diminutive size will scare most teams off and likely put him into early-second round territory.  His foot-speed and short-toss game are way above average, but his long-ball could use a little help if he is going to be successful at the pro level.

Pyro’s Take

Any team in need of a QB that doesn’t grab one in the first round will snatch McCoy up with their second pick.  This could mean the Rams, Redskins, Seahawks, Bills, Jaguars, Raiders, or maybe even the Vikings.  We love this kid’s moxie and understanding of the game, and as soon as he is able to completely learn an NFL system, we believe he’ll become a playoff-caliber QB.  In the long run, he might end up looking a lot like last year’s Super Bowl MVP, Drew Brees.

Fantasy Value

It doesn’t take this kid very long to be able to get the job done, as he proved by going 10-3 as a red-shirt freshman back in 2006.  Of course, it’s a little different when you get to the pros, but he’ll get his chance early if he ends up on a team like Buffalo, Washington, or even the Rams.  Fantasy-wise, 2010 might not see him as being worth more than a third-string QB on your team, but his accuracy, intelligence, and overall character and athleticism should make him a fantasy force to be reckoned with in the future.

Tim Tebow - Florida

Overview

Tebow was an absolute dream for head coach Urban Meyer down in Florida… and a nightmare for opposing defenses.  His statistics were off-the-charts as a three-year starter, both as a passer and as a runner; though some will say he was more a product of Meyer’s offensive scheme than anything else.  Regardless, his overall awareness led him to rarely throw interceptions while his toughness made him difficult to bring down whenever he scrambled out of the pocket, two things the Meyer-scheme theory cannot account for.  His mechanics could definitely use some work, but it looks like he has the strength and talent to eventually overcome his flaws.  He’ll be a project for whichever NFL team drafts him, but a very welcome project with tremendous upside.

Pyro’s Take

There’s no doubt that Tebow is an all-world talent, but it’s difficult to project where he’ll be in five years.  Will he even turn out to be a QB, or will he end up as a tight end?  Or an H-Back?  Or maybe even a linebacker?  Who knows?  One thing is for sure though – Tebow possesses all the physical skills and intangibles it takes to be a starter at some position in the NFL.  There’s no way that he slips past the second round in the draft, but at the same time, there’s no way of knowing which team will decide to take on the project that he is.

Fantasy Value                                  

Because of his mechanics and lack of a definitive position at this point, it’s unlikely that he’ll make a splash in the fantasy world this upcoming year.  Once whatever team he goes to figures out exactly what to do with him, he could become a force at whatever position he plays, but that might not happen for a couple of years.  He’s a nice pick for dynasty leagues, but for year-to-year fantasy leagues, he’s probably worth no more than a late-round flier right now.

SOURCE: http://www.richardashcroft.co.uk

Fantasy Year End Review – Wide Receivers

Nobody shattered the world on the Wide side this year but we did get some fresh new blood breaking into the top the ten.  Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson were not total surprises but we can put them into the “good stories of 2009” column for this year.  We can hope to see this young class of talent lead the way into the next decade.  One noticeable stat to look at for drafting in 2010 is that only 100 points separated #1 Wide Andre Johnson and #30 Wide Austin Collie.  It’s a better separation than our QB class in a ten man league that starts 1 QB and 3 Wides, but RB’s remain the focal point of the first round for 2010.  Still, there is nothing like seeing your Wide Receivers drop a couple bombs on your opponent come Sunday afternoon.  Having a strong receiving core is more important than ever with RBBC’s taking hold of the NFL.  Let’s take a look at this season’s final numbers.  We used a Basic Scoring format that breaks down like this…

ReYd:     1.00 point for every 10.00

ReTD:     6.00 points each

Getting In Tune

The aforementioned foursome who cracked into the top ten were all nice bargains but none was a stronger buy than Miles Austin.  He was likely a pickup in most leagues as many owners were taking a chance on Roy Williams breaking out as Tony Romo’s top gun.  With only 81 catches, Austin ended up third in yards and tied for third in touchdown catches (1320 and 11).  Along with DeSean Jackson who only recorded 63 catches (1167 and 9), Austin proved week in and week out that he only needed a few opportunities to bring the big play to the house.  These two exploded onto the scene in the NFC East and we expect them to stick around heading into 2010. 

We Won’t Get Fooled Again

If there was any doubt about Greg Jennings chances to be a top 10 Wide Out this season, your speculation likely rested on Aaron Rodgers to meet expectations and deliver him the rock.  It turned out Rodgers absolutely killed it and left Greg Jennings behind while he flew to the #1 QB slot for the year.  Two other top talents who we’re stealing it all year long as well were Calvin Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh.  Calvin ended the year 23^rd overall and was being selected as top five Wide on draft day.  He was muddled with injuries throughout the year so we still expect big things out of him in 2010.  We will not be expecting as much out of TJ Whatshisnameh as we were heading into 2009.  The high priced Free Agent Seahawk vastly underperformed.  Housh was targeted a hefty 135 times and could only pull down 79 catches for a miserable 911 yards and 3 Tuddies.  The numbers tell the tale; he was not open and unable to get the separation he had in the past as a Bengal.

Going Mobile

There were five Wides that really delivered their value this season.  As owners, when we drop a high round pick on a player, we need our guys to deliver the points we’re expecting.  Sure, leagues are won after the 4^th round, but you only have that chance if the players you grabbed in the first four rounds deliver the consistency that got them to their draft positions.  Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Roddy White were the pillars of consistency in this year’s Wide Receiver class.  PYRO had Andre Johnson and Randy Moss rated #1 and #2 and that’s exactly where they landed.  Andre is flat out ridiculous and the sky is the limit for his freakish talent.  He outdid all the rest in yards by over 200.  Randy looked a bit lost at times this season finding his timing with Brady again, but in the end, he delivered another hall of fame style season with 1264 yards and 13 tuddies.  You’ll find him roosted up high going into 2010 again, and regardless of all the speculation about the aging Star, he’ll be one of the guys that delivers, AGAIN.

The Kids are Alright

On top of some of the young stars who emerged and broke into the top ten this year, the NFL had a nice sample of rookie Wides on the scene as well.  The pack was lead by Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks.  Harvin thoroughly enjoyed the benefits of being Brett Favre’s #2 with 91 targets.  The two young talented Wides tied for 25^th in the league at Receiver making them top tier numbers threes at Wide on Fantasy Squads with 12 teams.  Other notable rookies were Mike Wallace (29th), Austin Collie (30^th), Jeremy Maclin (37^th), and Kenny Britt (47^th).  All these kids can play and it should be interesting to see where they land on the PYRO draft position board going into 2010.  Either way, the NFL is stacked with talent at Wide Out and we can all count on the passing attack to continue ruling the offensive game plans for years to come. 

Click here to see the full list of RBs and how many points they scored along with their statistics:

view as WEBPAGE

view as PDF

view as EXCEL 

LaDainian Tomlinson Tidbits:

- First NFL player to rush for 1,000 yards and catch 100 passes in the same season

- Fourth most rushing yards before the age of 30 (Barry Sanders, 13,778;  Emmitt Smith, 12,566;  Jim Brown, 12,312;  LaDainian Tomlinson, 11,760;  Walter Payton, 11,625)

- Nine straight seasons with at least 10 rushing TDs (NFL Record)

- Most rushing TDs (28) and Total TDs (31) in a season

- Tied for longest streak of games with a TD – 18 games (Lenny Moore)

- Seventh all-time in rushing yards per game (88.6)

- Second all-time RB throwing TDs with, First is Walter Payton with 8

Brian Westbrook Tidbits:

- Played college football at Villanova University, a 1-AA Division school

-  The first player in the history of college football with 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards in one season (1998)

- Holds the all-time NCAA record with 9,512 all-purpose yards

- In 2008, Westbrook scored two receiving and two rushing touchdowns with 100+ yards in the same game, the first time that had been done since 1975

McFarlane NFL Figure: LaDainian Tomlinson 21 - San Diego Chargers

McFarlane NFL Figure: Brian Westbrook 36 - Philadelphia Eagles

Here are a few LaDainian Tomlinson articles:
http://www.chargers.com/news/article-1/21-best-memories-of-21/875a7f7d-755a-4c29-a9b4-de258b19f811
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/02/23/chargers/index.html
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0224-haugh-bears-ladainian-tomlins20100223,0,5369005.column

And here are a few Brian Westbrook articles:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/nfl/02/23/eagles-westbrook.ap/index.html
http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=20318&spadaro=1
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20100224_Paul_Domowitch__Westbrook_had_no_weakness__and_few_peers.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20100224_Bob_Ford__Brian_s_swan_song__Eagles_show_Westbrook_the_door.html

Ben Roethlisberger

Everyone knows that Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best in the NFL at getting the job done when the most is on the line.  No question there.  He’s the type of QB that likes to sprinkle a little bit of stress on his Corn Flakes every morning just so he never forgets what it’s like to eat pressure for breakfast.  However, one thing that fantasy footballers might NOT know about Big Ben is that over the last five seasons (2005-2009), he actually ranks as a top-ten QB in quite a few relevant categories:  He’s 6^th in the league in yards (16,681), tied for 6^th in TDs (110), ranks 8^th in completions (1,330), 9^th in QB Rating (90.9), and 10^th in yards/game (228.5).  That being said, what matters most to fantasy owners is where the Steelers quarterback ranks in terms of fantasy production, which unfortunately, is not in the top-ten.

Ben has the ability to be a top fantasy QB in the league, as evidenced by his 4^th ranking in 2007 when he threw for 32 TDs (more than Manning, Favre, and Brees) and his 9^th ranking this past year when he threw for 4,328 yards (more than Favre, Rivers, McNabb, and Warner), but there are a few reasons why I believe he won’t return to fantasy starter status is 2010:

1)      Run, Rashard! Run!  -  Pittsburgh is a run-first team and always has been.  After leaning heavily on their passing attack in 2009, Steelers owner Art Rooney told Coach Mike Tomlin that he wants to go back to a ball-control, run-first philosophy in 2010.  Tomlin agreed, as he understands that in order for the defense to work the way that it should, the offense needs to run the ball much more than it did in 2009.  Rashard Mendenhall came far enough along last year to prove that he can shoulder a full load, so expect Roethlisberger’s pass attempts to drop back into the low 400’s as opposed to his career high of 506 last year.

2)      Troy Polamalu  -  Without the services of SS Troy Polamalu for 11 out of 16 games last year, the Steelers defense wasn’t close to its dominant self.  In the 5 games Troy played in, Pittsburgh went 4-1 and gave up just 13.8 points/game.  When he was out, they went 5-6 while surrendering 23.2 points/game.  Basically, the Steelers needed to score more to win, which meant relying on Big Ben’s arm much more than usual.  That isn’t expected to happen in 2010, as Polamalu isn’t known as an injury-prone player and is said to be fully recovered in time for OTAs.

3)      The Numbers  -  Not just his particular numbers, but the team’s numbers.  Nothing in Big Ben’s career statistics implies that he will suddenly become a 30+ TD, 4,000-yard passer.  In fact, his averages say that he shouldn’t do much better than 21-23 TDs and 3,200-3,400 yards.  Throw on top of that the fact that Pittsburgh has a tougher schedule against pass defenses in 2010 than they did in 2009 (average rank of opposing pass D in 2009 was 15.8 compared to 14.4 in 2010) and you’re looking at a guy that will be lucky to crack the top-15 fantasy QBs next season.

Brett Favre

The moment Brett Favre put his signature on the dotted purple line, the expectation was that the sure-fire Hall-of-Famer would lead Minnesota to the Super Bowl.  Lofty expectations?  Sure, but understandable.  Pressure-filled?  Absolutely, though nothing Favre wasn’t used to.  The one thing the Vikings were NOT expecting out of Favre was for him to put up arguably his best statistical season ever.  Nobody saw his 2009 campaign coming, and no one should expect to see it again in 2010… if he comes back at all.

1)      Adrian Peterson  -  If Favre does decide to return for a 20^th season in 2010, I guarantee that the first request he makes of the upper management and coaches is that they take some of the pressure off of him and get Adrian Peterson more involved in the offense.  Favre may have put up numerous career top-5 numbers in 2009, but one of those numbers he won’t be able to duplicate in 2010 is the 34 sacks he endured throughout the season.  Expect far fewer dropbacks out of the old-timer in 2010.

2)      Age  -  Speaking of age, how long can we realistically expect QBs to last nowadays with defensive players coming into the NFL at the average size of a large cougar?!?!  Favre will turn 41 years old by the fifth game of the season, and although he might hold the Ironman badge of the NFL for eternity, that by no means makes it a foregone conclusion that he’ll make it through this next season unscathed.

3)      The Numbers  -  The most important number going into next season is his increasing age, which I talk about above.  But the other numbers that matter here are the numbers he has no chance of increasing in 2010.  The stats that he put up in 2009 were staggering to say the least.  He accumulated career top-5 numbers in QB Rating (1^st), completion % (1^st), yards/attempt (1^st), completions (t-2^nd), yards (3^rd), TDs (t-4^th), while also throwing the least amount of INTs he’s ever thrown (7, previous low was 13).  One more number that matters is the amount of sacks he suffered, 34, which was tied for the 4^th most he’s ever had in a season.  The chances of a 41-year old QB putting up numbers like these again are, in my estimate, about 100-1, so don’t go expecting him to be in the top-5, or maybe even the top-10 QBs again in 2010.

Thomas Jones

Thomas Jones has been the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL for years now, meaning he simply “don’t get no respect”.  He’s on the verge of 10,000 career rushing yards and will most likely end his career amongst the top-25 in yards, attempts, and rushing TDs.  That being said, it will probably take him a few years of RBBC or backup duty to accomplish it, and I don’t see any way whatsoever of him repeating the numbers he put up in 2009:

1)      Shonn Greene  -  When finally given the chance in the playoffs last year, the 3^rd-round pick out of Iowa, Shonn Greene, showed the world what he could do in a primary role and more importantly, showed it to the New York Jets brass.  Couple Greene’s fast-paced ascent with the fact that Leon Washington will be back in 2010 to hawk a chunk of carries and Jones is already looking at a major decrease in opportunities to repeat the stats he put up in 2009.

2)      Age  -  Jones will be 32-years old at the start of the 2010 season.  Typically, the age where running backs max out on their abilities is right around the 30-year old mark, so for Thomas to have done what he did last year at 31 is special, but not likely to happen again.

3)      The Numbers  -  Jones is owed a $2.8 million roster bonus in March, along with a $2.8 million salary in 2010.  Basically, the Jets might not even keep him.  The problem with this is that even if he does get released and picked up by another team, whatever team that is, they won’t have close to as good of an offensive line as the Jets have.  Jones was in the ideal situation to succeed in 2009, seeing that the Jets had a superior O-line and a rookie QB running the show.  No matter what happens, that won’t be the case in 2010.

Ryan Grant

There’s no question that the Green Bay Packers offense goes as Aaron Rodgers goes, but what people tend to neglect is what Ryan Grant does for this team.  With defenses keying on the passing game, Grant quietly put up career highs in both rushing yards (1,253) and rushing TDs (11) while at the same time not losing a single rushing fumble.  So with the Packers not likely to change their offensive scheme anytime soon, why would I think that Grant won’t return to top-10 fantasy status?  I’ll tell you:

1)      One-Trick Pony  -  Grant is basically a straight-line runner.  Sure, he’s a nice-sized back with good strength and decent speed, but he’s extremely mediocre when it comes to “total-RB” features such as blocking and receiving out of the backfield.  The Packers have one of the worst offensive lines in the game, and with Rodgers being their golden ticket back to the Super Bowl, they need a running back that can both block well and catch balls in the flat.  Grant is clearly not that guy.  The Pack has even talked about going out and getting another RB to use in an RBBC with Grant, which would greatly diminish his chances of repeating last year’s success.

2)      Can’t Hang with the Big Boys  -  Ryan Grant has a propensity to disappear against the better Rush Defenses in the league.  In 2009, he played 8 games against top-16 rush Ds and 8 games against bottom-16 rush Ds.  By the end of the year, he had gained 233 more yards against the bottom half of the league while posting a 4.5 YPC and rushing in 6 TDs.  Against the top half, he didn’t do too poorly as he put up a 4.36 YPC along with 5 TDs, though 100 of those yards and 2 TDs came at the end of the year against a 15^th ranked Seattle team that had already given up on the season.

The Numbers  -  With the Packers improving as much as they did in 2009, that of course means that their schedule won’t be as friendly in 2010.  The average rank of the rush Ds that Grant faced in 2009 was 15.25, which is easier than what it will be in 2010 when he faces an average rank of 14.25.  It’s not a big difference, but considering that Grant doesn’t do as well against the better teams, it could mean more to a back like him.  I wouldn’t expect him to be anymore than a decent RB2 for fantasy teams in 2010 because of this.

Steve Smith (NYG)

Steve Smith of the New York Giants was easily one of the biggest surprises of the 2009 season.  Not just because he came out of nowhere, but because he outplayed his namesake of the Carolina Panthers in just about every statistical category that matters in fantasy (they tied in touchdowns with 7 apiece).  However, that’s exactly what it was; a surprise.  A surprise is something that catches you off-guard, something that won’t happen in 2010, and here’s why:

1)      Eli Manning  -  The physical breakdown of Eli Manning in the middle of the year and on through the end of the season is something the Giants cannot afford in 2010.  With the healthy return of a rushing attack that features Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, I expect the Giants to go back to a ball-control offense in order to save Manning for an end-of-season push into the playoffs.  That means fewer opportunities for Stevie to repeat the massive numbers he put up in 2009.

2)      Crowded Corps  -  Smith wasn’t the only Giants receiver that opened some eyes this past year.  The emergence of second-year receiver Mario Manningham and the rookie play of Hakeem Nicks were nearly as impressive as Steve Smith’s performance and I expect the Giants coaches to try and get those two more involved in 2010.  Add to that a nice, young tight end in Kevin Boss and few other young receivers in Domenik Hixon, Sinorice Moss, and Ramses Barden, and the targets just keep on dwindling and dwindling for Smitty.

3)      Won’t Get Fooled Again  -  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on all the stupid defenses that end up not realizing they actually have to cover Steve Smith.  Like I said, Steve Smith was a surprise in 2009, but a surprise is a one-time thing.  I fully expect Giants opponents to grasp this concept in 2010 and make Smith a priority in their scheme.  He’s a very good possession receiver, somewhat in the mold of a Wes Welker, but now that teams have a bead on what he can do, I just don’t see those numbers repeating themselves next year.

Sidney Rice

Sidney Rice worked like a madman in the off-season last year to do exactly what he did in 2009, which is why this is the most questionable of my selections to this piece.  You can’t say enough about the encouragement it gives a player to work with former stars of the league such as Jerry Rice and Cris Carter, which is exactly what Rice did the summer before last year.  However, there are too many other factors that can play into his downfall to ignore, which is why I have to challenge his ability to be able to stay among the league’s elite in 2010:

1)      Brett Favre  -  There is no question whatsoever that Favre had a huge impact on the success of Rice in 2009, which is a large reason why I don’t think his numbers can be repeated in 2010.  One way or another, whether it’s because Favre will be scaled back this upcoming season or whether he decides not to play at all, Rice is the one who will feel the Favre-Effect the most.  If Favre returns, I expect Rice to stay within the top 15-20 WRs in the league (which isn’t a far cry from his 8^th ranking in 2009).  However, if Favre retires and the Vikings have to go with either Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson, don’t expect to be able to use Sidney as more than a WR3 on your 2010 fantasy team.

2)      Percy Harvin  -  Minnesota got lucky when the multi-talented Percy Harvin fell into their lap with the 22^nd pick of the 2009 draft.  Easily the most athletic player of the crop, Percy was called upon to do a multitude of things for the team despite that he was just a rookie.  Suffice it to say, the young buck didn’t disappoint, and he’ll be called upon to do even more in 2010.  This means more reps at WR, which also means fewer targets for Sidney Rice.  Couple that with a toned down passing attack and all of sudden it doesn’t matter if Favre is the one throwing the ball or not.

The Numbers  -  The Vikings had one of the easier schedules in the league last season when it came to their opposing team’s pass defense.  The average ranking of their weekly opponent in 2009 was 17.31, whereas their 2010 opponents mark is 15.5.  Rice will also have to face the top-2 pass Ds in the league next year when they play Buffalo at home, and then travel to meet Darrelle Revis and the New York Jets in East Rutherford at some point as well (which is basically a guaranteed fantasy goose-egg).  If the almighty ancient one comes back for another season, Sidney will put up good enough numbers to warrant a WR2 starting position on your fantasy team throughout the year, but if not, I don’t expect much more than a WR3 slot.

Hines Ward

It’s tough to find a receiver in the NFL that deserves more respect than Steelers WR Hines Ward.  Even at the ripe old age of 33, the guy plays his ass off every single play and still has more fun doing it than a pig in a shitstorm.  He put up close to career highs in both receptions and yards this past year, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that won’t happen again:

1)      Tradition  -  As was stated with Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers plan to go back to their roots and convert their offense back to a more traditional run-based scheme.  That means less targets, less receptions, and consequently, less yards (Ward has never been a yards-per-reception guy).  Hines is also one of the best blocking wideouts in the league, so I expect him to be used in that capacity quite a bit in 2010.

2)      Mike Wallace  -  Pittsburgh found themselves a nice diamond in the rough last year when young Mike Wallace burst onto the scene.  He’s not even close to the same type of receiver as Ward, but he’s definitely a high-octane guy that will open up the field more for Santonio Holmes.  At the very least, Wallace will steal targets away from Ward as the Steelers look to get him more involved come 2010.

Age  -  Slowly but surely, Ward’s age is catching up to him.  He’ll be 34 in March, which will make him 34 and a half come the start of the season (those ½ years make a difference in the NFL when you get this old).  He might be a little craftier in his old-age, but the physical beating he allows his body to take over the course of a year won’t do much for him down the stretch of the season.  This was evidenced in 2009 when his receptions, yards, yards/catch, and TDs all fell off in games 9-16.  I just can’t see him being more than a decent WR3 for fantasy teams in 2010 due to all these factors working against him.

Heath Miller

Heath is actually one of those unknown, supreme talents that teams like to keep a secret for as long as they can, but the Steelers couldn’t resist and used him as one during the 2009 season.  The guy can pretty much do it all.  He can block, he can run, he can catch, and he’s a huge target… all the things you look for out of a dominant tight end.  However, Miller happens to be caught up in a team ripe with tradition, and even more so, engulfed in a system much more geared towards using him for his size instead of his fantasy, playmaking abilities.  His 2009 stats essentially mirrored those of perennial All-Pro Tony Gonzalez, but that won’t happen again in 2010:

1)      Block It Out  -  As stated earlier with both Big Ben Roethlisberger and the ageless Hines Ward, the biggest factor working against Miller this upcoming season is the team’s commitment to going back to their traditional run-based offensive attack instead of relying on the QB to generate the team’s points.  2009 was an anomaly for Heath, as he destroyed his season highs in targets (98), receptions (76), and yards (789).  Along with his 6 TDs, these numbers slid him up into the top-10 in TE fantasy production, something he isn’t likely to see in 2010 with the Steelers pledge to re-establish the run-game.

Taking Advantage  -  Heath did most of his damage last season against the weaker teams in the league.  In the 7 games in which he faced pass Ds that ranked in the bottom half of the league, he put up 41 catches, 446 yards, and 4 TDs.  In comparison, the numbers he put up in the 9 games against the top half of the league; 35 catches, 343 yards, 2 TDs; and you can see that he clearly struggles as the defense gets better.  Elite tight ends don’t have this difficulty, and in fact are depended on more during those games due to the wide receivers being shut down with more consistency.  Heath will be facing 10 pass defenses ranking in the upper half of the league in 2010, so with the running game becoming more of an emphasis a swell next year, don’t expect Miller to come close to the gaudy numbers he amassed in 2009.

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Fantasy Year End Review – Running Backs

Any time the Fantasy world is treated to a 2000 yard season by ANY running back, you know you were just treated to a piece of sweet NFL history.  With RBBC’s taking the focal point across the Fantasy Landscape, Carries is quickly becoming the key to a successful backfield and a chance at Fantasy Gold.  There are no stats like Running back stats, so let’s dig in and take a look at what happened this year.  We used a basic scoring format that breaks down like this…

Running Backs

RuYd: 1.00 point for every 10.00

RuTD: 6.00 points each

ReYd: 1.00 point for every 10.00

ReTD: 6.00 points each

I Call that a Bargain, the Best I Ever Had…

This was the year of the Bargain as many late picks found their way into a top 15 final spot.  Ray Rice led the way in the Bang for the Buck column with a monster year on the ground and in the air.  Prognosis coming into the year was that the Baltimore backfield would be crowded with Ray Rice having the chance for a featured roll.  If you gambled around the 4^th round on Ray you just may have found yourself in the playoffs this year.  101 targets for the gifted back helped lead to 2000+ yards from scrimmage – way impressive.  Ricky Williams is back on the Fantasy scene and surely will be ready to retire again if his Carries even sniff 300, but let’s give the once and future prodigal RB king a hand.  The injury to Ronnie Brown was the obvious catalyst here, but it wasn’t all together unpredictable.  Still, whenever you drafted (or likely picked up) Ricky, you were pleasantly surprised with the 1100 yards and 11 TD’s with only 7 starts.  Joseph Addai crawled his way back into the top 10 with a surprisingly small roll for the rookie Donald Brown. Brown was only able to play in 11 games and only stole 78 carries out the Colts vault.  Addai’s carries and yards were down, but the back was able to vulture 13 TD’s out the Colts prolific offense.  Thomas Jones did what he does every year, surprise the Fantasy World with yet another gem season.  All this guy does is lift weights and watch film.  Make no mistake about TJ, the Pyromaniac staffers love this guy.  Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson rounded out the rest of the bargains in the top 15.  Overall, if you look at where the top 15 backs were supposed to shake out pre-season, this was a surprising cast that should present plenty of great question marks going into the 2010 campaign.

Same as it Ever Was…

There were a few backs that landed in a reasonable vicinity of where they were drafted.  Purple Jesus owners were expecting Chris Johnson’s numbers and Chris Johnson owners would have gladly settled for AP’s final numbers.  Either way, if you were in position to grab AP, MJD, or CJ28, you were all well rewarded for your draft position.  There is little reason to believe these three won’t be top 3 backs again next year.  Any way you cut it, AP’s 1389 yard season with 18 TD’s still felt a bit disappointing.  The long stretch of the “100 yard game” drought owners dealt with down the stretch won’t be quickly forgotten, but 18 TD’s is nothing to bitch about.  The guy is still supremely talented and depending on how things shake out on the QB front in Minny this off season, it could get even better.  MJD, the human bowling ball, is truly a joy to watch and his fantasy numbers were right where any owner hoped they’d be on draft day – near 1400 yards and 16 end zone dances.  And then there’s the freak.  CJ28 did a little more than surprise his expectant owners with a 2000 yard season, he broke the all time Rushing + Receiving yardage in a season record.  Not much more needs to be said there.  Here’s a little more: GET HIM. 

You Ain’t Nothing but a Hound Dog

Matty Forte’s new nickname is going to be Forty for his yardage production each game if he doesn’t turn things around real quick.  He was peppered across the country on pre-season draft boards in the top five and ended the season 18^th overall – short of 1000 yards and only 4 tuddies.  OUCH.  If you drafted Matt Forte you either missed the playoffs or were pissing and moaning all season long about how great your team could be if Matt Forte had produced.  The fact he came in 18^th is pretty surprising and we’ll have to take a long look at what Mike Martz does to RB’s for next season.  Steve Slaton was one of the sexy names going into the draft and I heard a lot of whispers about how owners were going to steal him on the back side of the first two rounds.  What a disaster.  Slaton registered 437 and 3 rushing tuddies.  LT - many owners were quietly predicting a big revival.  RIP brother.  Stick to the Electric Slide my man.

Won’t You Stay Forever Young

After last year’s ridiculous rookie running back class, CJ28, Forte, Slaton, J. Stewart, and Kev. Smith, the NFL was due for a snoozer class and that’s about what they got.  Knowshon Moreno was the only Rookie RB to crack the top 30 and he did it with a nice supply of….  Drum roll please….  CARRIES.  He ended the season with 247 attempts, 41 targets, and 9 total tuddies.  Not too shabby.  The rest of the class, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene, and Donald Brown, have some nice potential and should have a bigger impact next season.  Particularly, Shonn Greene really shined in the post season for the Jets and he gave owners a nice glimpse of what “could be” given a featured roll.

Click here to see the full list of RBs and how many points they scored along with their statistics:

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Fantasy Year End Review - Quarterbacks

What a year we were treated to this season!  With more and more RBBC’s (Running Back By Committee) taking center stage, the need to be solid at QB is getting more and more key to Championship contention.  Teams without top tier production at QB were exposed early and often this season by the teams with big guns like P. Manning, Brees, and Rodgers.   Let’s take a look at the season’s final numbers.  We used a Basic Scoring format that breaks it down like this…

Quarterbacks

PaYd: 1.00 point for every 20.00

PaTD: 4.00 points each

RuYd: 1.00 point for every 10.00

RuTD: 6.00 points each

Bang for the Buck!

The big standouts here were Aaron Rodgers and Matt Schaub, these two guys were sexy names going into this year’s draft and you were able to get them a bit later than the big names - P. Manning, Brees, and Brady.  Rodgers had an incredible season behind an AWFUL offensive line that really struggled to protect him early in the season.  He fought through all the sacks and notched the one slot overall.  His numbers should be pretty similar next season as the young QB matures.  The rushing TD’s (5) were a real nice addition, but those will drop off next season.  He should make up for it in the passing game.  Matt Schaub finally stayed healthy and rewarded owners with the season everyone thought he could have, stealing a passing title with 4770 yards. 

Big Ben Roethlisberger torched teams for most of the season until late in the year when he sustained a nasty head concussion vs. Kansas City that helped round out a five game losing streak.  While Big Ben was in, he absolutely killed it this year to the tune of 22.7 points per game, well enough for third overall at QB.  He finished the season with a career high in yards beating his previous high of 3513 by more than 800 yards.  Overall, it was a sick and unforeseen year from the Steeler leader.

The Bears Are Who We Thought They Were?

Anytime you have a chance to grab Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, do yourself a Fantasy Favor and get it done.  Don’t overthink it, just shout their name, do the "Smack the Pony" dance, and prepare for total point contention.  In a boom or bust world filled with surprises and disappointments, these two set the bar for consistency.  You often don’t “get what you pay for”, but you do with these two.  Another guy who delivered his value in most leagues was Tony Romo and he was a steal in many others.  I am not a Dallas faithful, but I will admit it was nice to see Tony at least get off the snide with the Playoff win this season.  Another December collapse, and we may have seen this guy's career go down the drain.    

Can I Get a Refund?

On the other hand, even with 28 TD’s and almost 4400 yards, Tom Brady was a mild disappointment in the end.  Unless your league was sleeping on Tom 'cause of the knee injury, you likely paid heavy and went home early with the Stetson man at the helm.  Don’t expect a lot more next year either.  He's not going to be the same Fantasy QB he was pre-knee injury.  

Young Guns

Matthew Stafford put together some nice numbers for a rookie, but he struggled to stay on the field.  When he did, the Rook put himself in 14^th place amongst Q's in points per game with 18.8.  A lot remains to be seen from this young gunslinger, but he put himself on the Fantasy map this year and he has some nice weapons on offense to work with.  Josh Freeman is the other significant rookie QB, but he was pretty weak in the Fantasy Stat columns.  He was able to rally his squad and show some leadership to get his team a few wins, including a 3 TD comeback win performance in his debut against the Packers. 

One More Year?

No, more like 3 more years, but any way you want to cut Favre up, you can’t ignore that he had arguably the best statistical season of his career at 40 years old.  Would you quit if you were klling it this hard?  With 33 TD’s and 4200 yards passing, retirement would be a mistake for him.  He has to be thinking about the "what ifs"on the turnovers in the NFC championship, and those will haunt him enough to bring him back in 2010.  One thing you can count on, we won’t know until about 2 days left in training camp so he can avoid that ass pain.  If he has proven anything in this retirement mess, it's his disdain for football in August and he’s not trying to hide it.      

Click here to see the full list of QBs and how many points they scored along with their statistics:

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view as EXCEL 

Emmitt Smith is a man who needs no introduction.

Well, maybe two sentences...

“My presentation will consist of two sentences,” Pro Football Hall of Fame writer Rick Gosselin said before he made the presentation of Emmitt Smith to the selection committee of the HOF. “When you have a first ballot hall-of-famer, you shouldn’t have to say much.”

Indeed, it was a mere formality when Smith was elected into the Hall of Fame Saturday. The NFL’s all-time leading rusher’s resume is more decorated than Clark Griswald’s house on Christmas.

Smith made the Pro Bowl in each of his first six seasons with the Dallas Cowboys and led the league in rushing four of those six years. He was named to the All-Pro team four years in a row (’92-’95) while his team won the Super Bowl three out of those four years. 

But speaking to the true competitive nature of Smith, it’s the fourth Super Bowl that the Cowboys missed out on that still hurts him today.

After winning consecutive Super Bowls in ’92 and ’93, the Cowboys were looking to create a dynasty. Behind Aikman, Irvin and Smith, the Cowboys were nearly unstoppable. That is, until the San Francisco 49ers rumbled into their path.

In the 1994 NFC Championship game, the Cowboys took on a 21-0 deficit in the first quarter as the 49ers converted three turnovers into three touchdowns behind the play of Steve Young, Jerry Rice and Ricky Watters. In spite of their disasterous start, the Cowboys would work themselves back into the game by bringing the score to within 10 points in the 3^rd quarter on Smith's 2nd TD run of the game. However, the Niners would counter Dallas' push on the next possession with their own TD rush by Young. In the end, Smith and Co. were outworked as they eventually lost 38-28.

Even though the Cowboys came back to win the Super Bowl the following season for their third title in four years, Smith still has dirt in his mouth from that game.

"Yeah, we won three, but it's the fourth one that got away," Smith told the Dallas Morning News. "How about that one?"

Smith needed that sort of competitive edge in order to succeed in the league, as he was seen as having a small build for a running back with just average speed. It was this fierce desire to succeed, as well as his unmatched vision and effort, that went on to make him the NFL all-time leader in rushing yards, attempts, and rushing TDs. He was quick to the hole and never gave up after first contact. He became famous for runs where he would disappear behind his blockers and slip through a seam before popping out the other side and bursting toward the end zone untouched. His outstanding leg strength allowed him to run low to the ground and make sharp cuts, even at full speed.

It was all these aspects of his game that prompted the Cowboys to take a “gamble” on him with the 17^th overall pick in the 1990 NFL Draft. How the 16 teams picking before them overlooked a running back who ran for over 1,000 yards by the seventh game of his freshman season at Florida (then, an NCAA Record) and ran for just under 1,600 yards his junior year is fascinating. Smith would go on to be named the SEC and NCAA Freshman of the Year, while also finishing 9th in that year's Heisman Trophy voting. His record-breaking junior year came after he spent most of his sophomore year sitting on the sidelines with a knee injury.   

But Smith, known for his physical toughness, wouldn’t let injuries slow him down. During his 12-year tenure with the Cowboys, he never played less than 14 games in a season and rushed for over 1,000 yards every year but his rookie season. No moment exemplified Smith's fortitude more than during the last game of the 1993 regular season, as the Cowboys faced the New York Giants with the division title and first-round bye on the line...

Late in the second quarter, Smith bruised his sternum and separated his shoulder on the same huge hit by Giants defensive back Greg Jackson. From then on out, his cousin would shout to him whenever he took a hit that he couldn’t play football if he couldn’t deal with the pain, so Smith stayed in the game, finishing with 168 rushing yards to complement 61 receiving yards on 10 catches. It was his unselfish and determined play that helped the Cowboys earn a 16-13 win, the division title, a first-round bye, and an eventual Super Bowl trophy (Smith took home the Super Bowl MVP).

"[The Cowboys training staff] gave me some medicine. It was supposed to help me with the pain, but it didn't,” Smith told the Dallas Morning News. "What helped me get through that game was the fact my teammates were counting on me. When I came to the huddle and looked the guys in the face, I could see their concern for me, but I also knew how important the game was. There was a lot at stake.”

For his boundless heart and courage, Emmitt received a highly justified respect from his teammates, and still, his tenacity was not the only aspect of his NFL career that demanded the awe of his peers.  Smith's statistical output over the span of his tenure is also just as majestic as his character.  Aside from the records mentioned earlier (rushing yards - 18,355; rushing attempts - 4,409; rushing TDs - 164), Emmitt also had a five-year stretch from 1991-1995 in which he gained 9,742 yards from scrimmage, about 1,000 yards more than fellow Hall-of-Famers Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas put up in that span, and over 3,000 more yards than anyone else.  In 1993, Smith won both the AP MVP of the league and the Super Bowl MVP in the same year, a feat no other non-QB has ever accomplished (Kurt Warner, '99; Steve Young, '94; Joe Montana, '89; Terry Bradshaw, '78; Bart Starr, '66).  Emmitt also rushed for over 1,000 yards in a season 11 times, most in NFL history (it should also be noted that those 11 seasons were all in a row as well).

After retiring with the Arizona Cardinals in 2004 (he technically signed a one-day contract with the Cowboys so he could retire in a Dallas uniform), Smith took his game smarts to the broadcast booth where he became an analyst for the NFL Network and ESPN. He also had a successful stint on Dancing with the Stars in 2006.

Speaking to his true competitive nature, and the fact that he gives his full effort and dedication to everything he does, Emmitt went on to take home the Dancing with the Stars title. Much like Smith twirled his way to victory on Dancing, he darted and dashed his way through defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs en route to the Hall of Fame. Maybe, like Dan Marino, he’ll give us one more move to remember during his Induction Ceremony speech.

As the first fantasy football decade of the new millennium comes to a close, we here at Pyro thought it appropriate to give our readers a bird’s-eye view of the significant fantasy stats that played out over the past ten years.  We also decided it would be interesting to give our viewers a bit of a different perspective and show how those same statistical categories looked back in the decade when fantasy football was gaining its momentum and taking the form of what it has become today:  The 90s.

There are a few striking points of interest here that we’d like to point out, just so they don’t escape the attention of your fantasy subconscious: 

Quarterbacks

QB  -  Notice how the trend of 4000+ Yard and 25+ TD passers has gone up these past few years.  More and more teams seem to be switching to a pass-heavy attack nowadays, which means more QBs are primed with the ability to climb into what was once known as the ‘elite’ status.

FANTASY Relevance  -  What this means in terms of fantasy is that the premium paid on these ‘elite’ QBs isn’t quite what it used to be.  Using a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on a player like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees might not give you the same value now as compared to those who take high-end running backs or wide receivers with those picks.  In years past, having Manning or Tom Brady could make all the difference in winning your league.  But now, besides #1 fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers (who had an unbelievable year), the difference between the #2 QB and the #9 QB was just 25 points in a basic fantasy scoring format.

Running Backs

RB  -  Notice that even though the number of 1200+ Yard rushers has gone down as of late, the number of 10+ TD rushers has gone up.  The reason behind this is yet another trend that seems to be taking over the NFL… the RBBC (Running Back By Committee).  More and more teams are using two (or three) RBs in their offensive scheme in order to keep their backfield fresh throughout the game.  However, there are two different types of RBBCs that are being employed.  1)  The “Smash and Dash” - This strain of the RBBC lets the more athletic RB of the two (or three) collect the lion’s share of the carries throughout the game while allowing the bigger RB takes on the short-yardage and goal-line carries.

FANTASY Relevance  -  Without being allowed to take on all the carries in a game, it’s hard for the athletic back to reach that 1200-yard mark over the course of the season.  At the same time, it also takes away their ability to gain value in the TD department.  As for the bigger back, he won’t come close to having a relevant amount of yardage to make a fantasy difference during the season, but gains a decent amount of value simply by stealing away TDs from the smaller, more athletic back.  2)  The “Who’s Better? Split” – This species of the RBBC can easily be the most annoying.  It’s when a team enters into the season having no idea which of their running backs is the better suited for the job and decides that the best way to go about the dilemma is to give each of them an even split of the carries out of the backfield.

FANTASY Relevance  -  Sometimes the split is 50-50, sometimes 60-40, but whatever the case, neither RB comes out having enough fantasy value to be able to start him on your fantasy team with confidence each week.

Wide Receivers

WR  -  The amount of 1200+ Yard and 10+ TD receivers doesn’t seem to waver much regardless of how many QBs end up with ‘elite’ status during any particular year.

FANTASY Relevance  -  What this shows is that the reward for fantasy owners who end up drafting one of those hidden gems that rise to the classification of ’elite’ receiver each year, can be the one maneuver that lands them the coveted pot ‘o gold in the end.  Every good fantasy player knows that there will always be those 4-6 receivers that will be at the top of the league every season, and of course, it’s nice to have one of those guys.  However, for those who use their top draft picks keeping pace with the rest of the league concerning running backs and QBs, it’s those one or two wide receivers that you grab in the later rounds of the draft that can make all the difference in whether your team prospers or hits the skids.  Basically, wide receivers demand research, and the more legwork you put in, the happier your team will be through the whole of the season.

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The New Orleans Saints Superbowl Drinking Game

1. Every time they mention Hurricane Katrina, drink 1

2. If they show pictures of the City of New Orleans right after Katrina, drink 1

3. Every time they say how much the Saints mean to the City of New Orleans, drink 1

4. Every time the words "tragedy", "flood", or "devastation" are used, drink 1

5. Every time they talk about how good Reggie Bush was in college, drink 3

6. If they show Kim Kardashian in the stands, drink 5

7. Every time they show a picture of Reggie Bush with a bat or say "bringing the wood", drink for 5 seconds

8. Every time Reggie Bush gets negative yardage trying to run around in the backfield making jukes and outrun the defense, drink 1 and turn to the person next to you and say "I told you Vince Young should have won the Heisman"

9. Every time Reggie Bush gets up and flexes his arms in that pose he likes to do, drink 1

10. If they mention Tim Tebow for any reason, funnel a beer

11. Every time they say that "it's destiny for the Saints to win", drink 1

12. If they show footage of Katrina survivors at the Superdome, take a shot of cheap liquor

13. If they call Saints fans the most passionate fans in football, drink 1

14. If they say that the Saints, Saints fans, or the CIty of New Orleans "deserve" a Superbowl victory, drink 1

15. Every time they say how good of a story the Saints are, drink 1

16. If Jeremy Shockey pretends to be hurt after dropping a pass, drink 2

17. If they mention the Bears beating the Saints in 2006 to get to the Superbowl, cry and remember when our team was good and we had a chance to win a championship… then shotgun a beer

18. Every time they mention Drew Brees as the Mardi Gras King, drink 1

19. Every time they show Archie Manning, drink 1 and mention how bad he sucked as a player. If they show old footage of him on the Saints, drink 5. If they mention how tough of a decision it was for him as for whom to cheer for, drink 10

20. Every time they show a Saints fan yelling "Who dat!" or a sign/shirt saying the same, drink 1

Other Rules Not Involving Saints:

1. Every time they show Eli Manning in the press box, drink 1

2. Every time Pierre Garçon is mentioned with Haiti, drink 1

3. If Brett Favre is mentioned for any reason, drink 1 

HERE IS A PRINTABLE VERSION FOR YOU TO BRING TO YOUR SUPER BOWL PARTY. CLICK HERE FOR THE PDF.

Game Changers: How Videogames Trained a Generation of Athletes 

By Chris Suellentrop                               FROM WIRED MAGAZINE - FEB 2010

The situation was desperate for the Denver Broncos. On the first Sunday of the National Football League’s 2009 season, with only 28 seconds left in the game, they trailed the Cincinnati Bengals 7-6. The ball was on the 13-yard line — their own 13-yard line. On second down, Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton heaved the ball downfield, only to see a Bengals defender deflect the pass away from the receiver. And then something remarkable, close to miraculous, happened. Instead of falling to the ground, the ball popped into the air and landed in the outstretched arms of Broncos wide receiver Brandon Stokley, who started racing down the field. All across America, in living rooms and basements and sports bars, people broke into cries of wonderment and delight, heartbreak and disbelief.

Then they witnessed something even more startling.

Just before he reached the end zone, with 17 seconds remaining, Stokley cut right at 90 degrees and ran across the field. Six seconds drained off the clock before, at last, he meandered across the goal line to score the winning touchdown. For certain football fans, the excitement of a last-minute comeback now commingled with the shock of the familiar: It’s hard to think of a better example of a professional athlete doing something so obviously inspired by the tactics of videogame football. When I caught up with Stokley by telephone a few weeks later, I asked him point-blank: “Is that something out of a videogame?” “It definitely is,” Stokley said. “I think everybody who’s played those games has done that” — run around the field for a while at the end of the game to shave a few precious seconds off the clock. Stokley said he had performed that maneuver in a videogame “probably hundreds of times” before doing it in a real NFL game. “I don’t know if subconsciously it made me do it or not,” he said.

Today’s football players have an edge that no athletes before them have possessed: They’ve played more football than any cohort in history. Even with the rise of year-round training, full-contact practice time on the field hasn’t increased — in fact, it has actually gone down, as coaches have tried to limit the physical punishment that the game exacts. But videogames, especially the ubiquitous Madden NFL, now allow athletes of all ages to extend their training beyond their bodies.

If you’re, say, an All-American quarterback at a top college program, odds are that you’ve been training on a very sophisticated, off-the-shelf simulator — a cross between a football tutorial and a real-time documentary, drizzled with addictive Skinnerian action-reward mechanics — for as long as you can remember. The many hundreds — even thousands — of hours that athletes put into videogame football give them more game experience (and, as Stokley demonstrated, sometimes more game awareness) than Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, or Joe Montana were able to log in previous eras. And there’s the possibility, too, that all this electronic play is changing the structure of their brains, at least in some ways, for the better.

For more than 30 years, sports videogames have been focused on simulating real-life athletics more and more perfectly. But over the past decade, games have moved beyond just imitating the action on the field. Now they’re changing it.

This revolution has sneaked up on many athletes, coaches, and fans. Sports and videogames — a combination that was one of the first diplomatic efforts in the emerging worldwide jock-geek armistice — have been interconnected since October 1958, when William Higinbotham, a nuclear physicist at Long Island’s Brookhaven National Laboratory, hooked up Tennis for Two, an electronic game of virtual tennis that is widely regarded as the first videogame. The first home videogame console, Magnavox’s Odyssey, included a digital version of table tennis, and then there was Atari’s Pong. The genre quickly expanded to baseball, basketball, football, auto racing, track and field, boxing, soccer, martial arts — if two or more people competed in something in the flesh, pretty soon they could compete in a digital version.

From the beginning, publishers and game designers were locked in an arms race of realism. George Plimpton mocked Atari 2600 owners for their underwhelming baseball game (Home Run) in a 1981 commercial for Mattel’s Intellivision console. (”Here’s an easy question for you,” Plimpton said. “Which of these games is the closest thing to the real thing?”) A couple of years later, a new wrinkle emerged when Electronic Arts signed Julius Erving and Larry Bird to the first-ever licenses to use athletes’ names and images in a sports game, 1983’s One-on-One. Soon there were releases like Tecmo Bowl and R.B.I. Baseball, which featured rosters of professional athletes playing for their real professional sports teams. It was a mind-blowing development for sports fans — and young athletes — who had previously been able to imagine themselves as their favorite players only during backyard pickup games.

Of all these games, John Madden Football — first published by Electronic Arts for the Apple II in 1989 and for the Sega Genesis console in 1990 — was perhaps the most committed to simulating its sport in all its complexity, including, for the first time, 11 players on each side. (”Most of my friends would tell you I started EA as an excuse to make a football game,” company founder Trip Hawkins says. “And there’s probably a fair amount of truth to that.”) Madden and its sequels became the most commercially successful sports videogame ever produced. (That success was cemented in 2004 by an exclusive license with the NFL that eliminated direct competitors.) In 2008, Madden NFL sold more copies than any other title except Wii Play, according to the research firm NPD Group, making EA an estimated $263 million. While John Madden’s career as an excitable TV commentator and analyst made him famous, the Madden videogame franchise — the Gospel of Coach John, available everywhere for $60 — has exerted a larger influence on football, from Pop Warner to the pros.

It was only a matter of time before the generation that grew up playing Madden and games like it transformed the gridiron. For years, the sophisticated play of professional teams trickled down to their college and high school counterparts. Recently, that flow has been reversed. Now the way football is played in high school and college — a style dominated by the so-called spread offense, which involves a lot of passing and relies on quick reads by the quarterback to analyze the opposing team’s defense — is bubbling up to the NFL. The sport is being taken over by something you might call Maddenball — a sophisticated, high-scoring, pass-happy, youth-driven phenomenon.

“These games nowadays are just so technically sound that they’re a learning tool,” says Tim Grunhard, an All-Pro center for the Kansas City Chiefs in the 1990s who now coaches high school football in the Kansas City area, where he encourages his players to use Madden to improve their knowledge of football strategy and tactics. “Back when I was playing football, we didn’t realize what a near or a far formation was, we didn’t really understand what trips meant, we didn’t understand what cover 2, cover 3, and cover zero meant,” Grunhard says, charging through jargon that’s comprehensible only to Madden players and football obsessives.

These days, Grunhard says, high school players have a much deeper understanding of offensive formations and defensive coverages, a development he attributes to their long hours on videogame consoles. “It just seemed to help out,” he says. “The kids understood where the counterplay or power play was going to open up. Or the middle linebacker lining up for a blitz — where the gaps were going to open up.”

No wonder younger quarterbacks are finding more and more success at the college and professional levels. This season, a 19-year-old freshman started for USC, a perennial Pac-10 power. In the NFL, rookie quarterbacks are entering the league and excelling immediately at an unprecedented rate (think of the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger, the Falcons’ Matt Ryan, and the Ravens’ Joe Flacco). In decades past, young passers sat on the bench for a year or two while they mastered reading NFL defenses. Now, having learned to differentiate between zone and man-to-man coverage over the course of years on their Xboxes and PlayStations, the rookies are less in need of such apprenticeship.

It’s one thing to suggest that videogames may be making us smarter. It’s another thing altogether to say they might be making us better athletes. But when you add it up, the evidence starts to look pretty overwhelming. At the Pop Warner Super Bowl in 2006, the winning team had 30 offensive plays, which it had learned through Madden. (”I programmed our offense into Madden to help me memorize our plays,” one 11-year-old told Sports Illustrated. “It was easier than homework.”) Dezmon Briscoe, an all-conference wide receiver for the University of Kansas, credited Madden 2009 with teaching him how to read when defenses “roll their coverages” — move their defensive backs to disguise their strategy. Chuck Kyle, a high school coach who has won 10 state championships in football-mad Ohio, has programmed his team USA playbook into Madden and uses it to teach players their assignments. So have coaches at Colorado State, Penn State, and the University of Missouri, among other schools. An offensive lineman for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers used the videogame as a preparation tool for an entire season, scouting his opponents digitally. While even-more-sophisticated software is available for virtual sports training, coaches and players at all levels of football say that Madden’s off-the-shelf simulation is good enough.

Marshall Faulk, former superstar running back for the St. Louis Rams (he appeared on the cover of Madden 2003), says that when he entered the NFL in 1994, “probably 10, 15, 20 percent” of the players were gamers. “Now? Anywhere from 50 percent on up,” he says. “Because Madden is sort of a mainstay in football, a lot of the kids playing in the NFL now grew up on it. It makes you a better football player.” Faulk may be understating the title’s popularity in the league: When I asked Stokley how many NFL players are Madden players, his estimate was even higher: “Everybody.”

As mass entertainment, the National Football League was created by television — in the image and likeness of NFL Films and the sound of John “Voice of God” Facenda, who for years narrated slo-mo footage of the game’s greats. Now it’s the first sport to have almost entirely transitioned into the videogame age. For young NFL athletes, “I played him inMadden” is replacing “I watched him on TV” as the awestruck thing to say about the most respected veteran on the team. (A few years ago, when Junior Seau, the longtime San Diego Chargers linebacker, became a Miami Dolphin, teammate Channing Crowder said, “Dead honest: I played him at running back in Madden ‘95 because he was the best player in the entire game.”)

Players are using videogames in increasingly innovative ways. Lauren Silberman, a 25-year-old graduate student in MIT’s comparative media studies program, wrote her master’s thesis on athletes who use them to enhance their physical play — on the football field, on the baseball diamond, on the basketball court. Of the athletes she interviewed who could play as themselves, more than 90 percent did so regularly. More and more, players at even the college level are able to practice with virtual versions of themselves. (The sims are so realistic that a class-action lawsuit has been brought by amateur athletes who want EA to share a portion of the revenue with them.) Briscoe, the University of Kansas wide receiver, told me that NCAA Football 10 — the college-football equivalent of Madden NFL — had successfully imported “a majority” of his team’s plays into its virtual playbook.

Baseball players have gotten in on the act, too. When Vladimir Guerrero, All-Star outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels, began his Major League career with the Montreal Expos, he would spend hours playing a PlayStation baseball game as himself.

But this activity isn’t just an exercise in self-obsession. Whether they know it or not, these athletes may actually be strengthening their brains. Cognitive scientists have published a series of studies demonstrating that playing fast-paced action videogames — mostly first-person shooters like Call of Duty and Halo — can alter “some of the fundamental aspects of visual attention,” as a paper published in the July 2009 issue of Neuropsychologia put it. By training on these games, researchers found, nongamers can achieve faster reaction time, improved hand-eye coordination, and greatly increased ability to process multiple stimuli. Studies have demonstrated that military pilots and laparoscopic surgeons can improve their professional skills by playing videogames. It’s not much of a leap to think that athletes could, too.

There are limits to how much virtual training will be able to boost on-field performance, of course. Don’t expect football to follow on the heels of poker, a game in which Internet-trained players have upended the professional cartel. (Chris Moneymaker won’t be quarterbacking the Titans next year.) A better analogy for virtual training could be weight lifting: It’s an activity that won’t turn you into a professional athlete, but if you are one, it will make you better at your sport. And once everyone starts doing it, you’ll need to do it regularly to remain competitive.

For the first time in 30 years, John Madden wasn’t in the broadcast booth as the NFL season kicked off. Sipping from a coffee cup and clad in a navy baseball cap, khaki pants, and an untucked plaid button-down, Madden was enjoying the games from a custom-built screening room at a production facility in his hometown of Pleasanton, California, the same place he once shot his TV commercials for tough-actin’ Tinactin. He had invited a dozen videogame designers and software developers to join him. In the 21-year history of the Madden videogame, EA employees had never watched football live on a Sunday with the actual Madden — he had always been too busy calling the games with Pat Summerall and Al Michaels.

“When you have your name on something, your credibility goes with it,” Madden told the group before kickoff, thanking them for their work on Madden NFL 10, the game’s newest version. And then Madden settled into a low-slung, ornate throne in front of a 16- by 9-foot projection screen framed by nine 63-inch high-definition televisions. Over the next six hours, he would be, well, John Madden: In addition to analyzing the tactics and strategy of nonvirtual football, he praised Brett Favre for being Brett Favre, he made jokes about players’ fashion choices, and he expressed mock frustration about the absence of mustard on Troy Aikman’s dress shirt. (”I wish his tie was loose. The guy’s perfect.”)

Then Brandon Stokley snagged the ball on the play that would soon be dubbed the Immaculate Deflection and pulled his astonishing did-you-see-that Maddenball maneuver. Donny Moore, an EA designer who was sitting to Madden’s left, leaped to his feet. “That’s what happens in the game!” he screamed, ecstatic. Moore knew that an experienced gamer would never run right into the end zone and give his opponent time for a comeback. No coach taught Brandon Stokley to drain the clock like that. Madden the game did.

“They play our game!” Moore roared. The room erupted, as everyone clapped and cheered, not for the Broncos, but for the moment. It wasn’t the first time — and it certainly won’t be the last — that life was imitating Madden.

Chris Suellentrop (chris.suellentrop@gmail.com) 

READ STORY ON WIRED.COM HERE - http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/01/ff_gamechanger/

An Excerpt from Time Magazine's most recent article on the concussion problem in the NFL:

Concussive Dangers
Football has been a rough sport since the leather-helmet days, but today's version raises the violence to an art form. No other contact sport gives rise to as many serious brain injuries as football does. High school football players alone suffer 43,000 to 67,000 concussions per year, though the true incidence is likely much higher, as more than 50% of concussed athletes are suspected of failing to report their symptoms.(See the top 10 medical breakthroughs of 2009.)

The human brain, although encased by a heavy-duty cranium, isn't designed for football. Helmets do a nice job of protecting the exterior of the head and preventing deadly skull fractures. But concussions occur within the cranium, when the brain bangs against the skull. When helmets clash, the head decelerates instantly, yet the brain can lurch forward, like a driver who jams the brakes on. The bruising and stretching of tissue can result in something as minimal as "seeing stars" and a momentary separation from consciousness.

Repeated blows to the head, which are routine in football, can have lifelong repercussions. A study commissioned by the NFL found that ex–pro players over age 50 were five times as likely as the national population to receive a memory-related-disease diagnosis. Players 30 to 49 were 19 times as likely to be debilitated. Of the dozen brains of CTE victims McKee has examined, 10 were from either linemen or linebackers; some scientists now fear that the thousands of lower-impact, or "subconcussive," blows these players receive, even if they don't result in documented concussions, can be just as damaging as — if not more so than — the dramatic head injuries that tend to receive more attention and intensive treatment...

READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE FROM START TO FINISH:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1957046-1,00.html

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By Kenny Legan

How do you define a legend? Is a legend something that seems to defy the laws of science, such as Paul Bunyan? Is a legend a tale that is just out of the scope of reality, like Alexander the Great? Or is a legend someone who performs tasks that any normal human being would be incapable of? Well, in the case of former Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter, his legendary status encompasses all three.

Carter had always been physically gifted. He was recruited by Ohio State to play football and basketball (this was back in the day when people actually played more than one sports, a la Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders), but he decided to focus on football after he made an immediate impact. During his freshman year, he set a Rose Bowl record with 172 receiving yards. He would go on to break the Big Ten record for receptions the following year, and then reset it his junior year.

He was able to do this because he caught anything thrown his way. His athletic prowess was something that tall tales are made of. During the Citrus Bowl, at the end of the 1985 season, he snagged a pass with his left hand that quarterback Jim Karsatos was throwing out of bounds (you can see it right below at the 20 second mark). “When I finally saw it on film, he was tiptoeing the sidelines and he jumped up and caught the ball left-handed by the point of the football at least a yard out of bounds. Then he somehow levitated back in bounds to get both his feet in bounds. I swear to this day he actually levitated to get back in bounds. When I saw it on film, it just blew me away."

However, things took a turn south before they came back around to the north. Carter was set to break numerous records his senior season, but he landed in some hot water. After his junior year, he secretly signed with an agent, and received money and gifts- a huge NCAA no-no. Carter was ruled ineligible his entire senior year and he pleaded guilty in court to defrauding the school and concealing money received from agents. He had to pay a $15,000 fine and perform 600 hours of community service.

But that wasn’t the end of Carter’s troubles. He was picked in the 4^th round of the 1987 NFL Supplemental Draft (a controversy unto itself) by the Eagles, and he posted impressive numbers in his 2^nd and 3^rd seasons catching a total of 84 passes for 1366 yards and 17 touchdowns. Yet, he was cut the following year due to alcohol and cocaine abuse problems, something he readily admits doing and something that contributed to his demise in Philly.

Luckily for Carter, most people believe in a second chance, especially if Chris Berman’s catch phrase for you is “All he does is catch touchdowns.” Minnesota picked Carter off the waiver wire in 1991 for the outrageously high price of $100 and Carter vowed to mend his ways. Well, the rest is history. Carter made the Pro Bowl in eight straight seasons from 1993-2000 and during that span he exceeded the 1,000 yard receiving mark every year except ’93 and he never caught less than 7 touchdowns in a season. His best season came in 1995, when he caught 122 passes for 1,371 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also helped the Vikings make the playoffs eight straight years and reach the NFC Championship in 1998 and 2000. He became only the second player to reach the 1,000 receptions in a career plateau and if it wasn’t for Marino, Carter might be the best player to never win the Super Bowl.

Carter’s best asset was by far his hands. He was a dependable go-to receiver because he was guaranteed to be in the right spot and his soft hands would always make the catch. In fact, NFL films named him to have “the greatest hands of all-time”. He was a consistent and cerebral player who, like Jerry Rice, used clean route running and an outstanding knowledge of the game to produce very solid numbers. He also made a habit of catching the ball with one-hand, something nobody can do on a consistent basis.

Unfortunately, all legendary careers must come to an end. The emergence of Randy Moss in the late 1990’s gave the Vikings a new deep threat to supplant the likes of Carter as the team’s key receiver.  Aging as he was and perhaps a step or two slower than he had been in the past, Carter opted out of his contract to look for a new home.  Carter found no takers until mid-way through the 2002 season, when the Dolphins brought him on to remedy their porous receiving corps.  After just one game, Carter was hospitalized with a kidney issue and played very little for the rest of the year.  Carter retired after the season.

Now, Carter works as an analyst for ESPN and a columnist for Yahoo! Sports. He continues to be involved with the NFL and isn’t afraid to call out his former teammates (http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2009/12/cris-carter-shocked-by-pathetic-performance-by-randy-moss/1). Carter’s son plays wide receiver for Ohio State and he seems to be following in his father’s footsteps, in more ways than one. He was declared ineligible for the Rose Bowl and did not play. However, Carter’s immaturity at the beginning of his career is a long forgotten footnote, and all that will be remembered are the legendary “levitating” catches he produced and the career he had that even his own quarterback sometimes didn’t believe it was real.

by Uncle Dogmatica

Matt Ryan

Many people had Matt Ryan pegged as a possible top-ten fantasy QB going into the 2009 season.  Well, many people turned out to be wrong.  However, with the addition of All-Pro tight end Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White’s rise to elite status, and the domination of RB Michael "Burner" Turner, who could be blamed for making that call?  Hell, we had Ryan tabbed as the No. 11 QB going into the season, and with good reason.  Ryan had one of the best rookie seasons ever, as you’d have to go back to 1998 and Peyton Manning to find a rook who threw for more yards than he did in 2008.  He also put together a streak of nine straight games of 200+ yards, something Manning didn’t do until his second year in the league.  He played a steady game with poise and confidence, and ended up leading the Falcons to a playoff berth with an 11-5 record, seven games better than the previous year. 

So what happened that brought about the plunge to the 19^th fantasy QB in 2009 from 15^th in 2008?  There were a couple of factors: 

1)      Injuries, Injuries, and even more Injuries  -  When your star running back goes down, as Turner did, that allows the defense to take an extra man or two out of the box and put them back in coverage.  Couple that with various injuries to three different starting offensive linemen over the course of the season and you’re looking at some serious trouble for your QB.  Not to mention, Ryan got injured himself (turf toe, a much more painful injury than it sounds) during the 11^th game of the season and wasn’t the same from then on out.  Injuries really can kill a fantasy season, whether they’re to your player or not.

2)      Strength of Schedule  -  The Falcons had a cakewalk in Ryan’s rookie year due to their 4-12 record in 2007.  However, because Atlanta performed so well in 2008, they ended up with one of the toughest schedules in the league this past year.  The combined record of the teams they faced in 2008 compared to 2009 was 117-138-1 in ’08 to 129-127 in ’09.   That’s a pretty big difference as far as SoS goes.

So what makes us think that Ryan belongs in the group of players here that we’ve dubbed ‘Flops to Tops’?

1)      Health  -  First of all, Ryan has been told to rest his turf toe until March so that it can fully heal, a task which he’ll have no problem accomplishing.  He’ll be back at full strength next season, as will his beast of a running back “Burner” Turner.  You can’t say enough about health when it comes to a sport like football.

2)      Tony Gonzalez  -  This was the first year Gonzo played in a Mike Smith conservative, rush-based offensive system, so there were bound to be a few growing pains.  With a year under his belt of learning how to mesh with Ryan, Turner, Roddy White and the Smith system, the only place for production to go is up.  There were also rumors Tony G. might retire, but he quickly squashed the gossip by confirming his return in 2010 last week. 

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3)      The Numbers  -  The Falcons will have an easier schedule in 2010, with the opposing teams combining for a 127-129 record in 2009.  Not just that, but the average ranking of their opponents Pass Defense is much more forgiving as well.  In 2009, the average rank of their opponents Pass D was 12.14, one of the toughest in the league (based on a scale from 1-32, with 1 being the toughest D).  In 2010, the Falcons see a four-slot turn as they will face Pass D's that sport an average ranking of 16.25.

With the return of the team’s overall health, another off-season to gel, and the numbers swinging back in their favor, look for Matt Ryan to jump into the top-12 fantasy QBs in 2010 and be a nice sleeper that can likely be had on the cheap.

Matt Cassel

Everybody and their mother knew Matt Cassel wouldn’t have the same success in Kansas City as he had with the Patriots in ’08, so his fall to 20^th in QB fantasy points in ’09 should come as no surprise to anyone.  No Randy Moss, no Wes Welker, no Bill Belichick, a first-year head coach in 42-year old Todd Haley, a major dip in offensive line talent, and the pressure of an oversized contract on his shoulders all spelled Catastrophe from the outset.  That said, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the man who spent his entire career as a back-up for Heisman Trophy winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, and then most recently, NFL MVP Tom Brady.

So, where does this tunnel end, and more importantly, how is Matt Cassel going to get there? 

1)     Charlie Weis  -  Sure, the swamp creature from the butterball lagoon could keel over at any moment, possibly before he gets the chance to even meet Matt Cassel, but if Weis does stay upright for at least one season, he undoubtedly will make a difference.  Weis is the one who installed the Erhardt-Perkins offensive system in New England that made Tom Brady into the QB he is today, a system that Belichick still uses and won three Super Bowls with.  For all of Notre Dame’s shortcomings while he was their head coach the past five years, one area they continually excelled at under Weis was the passing game.  Matt Cassel isn’t going to magically become the next Tom Brady, but one thing is for sure; Cassel and the Chiefs offense are going to get a lot better in 2010.

2)     Jamaal Charles  -  The evil toxin that goes by the name of Larry Johnson and his 2.9 YPC are gone from the Chiefs system.  The antidote?  Jamaal Charles and his 5.9 YPC, along with his 40 receptions out of the backfield.  Charles will force opposing defenses to pay attention to the Chiefs running game again, something they didn’t have to do with LJ toting the ball.  This will cause the field will open up considerably for Cassel and the wide receivers as defenses won't being able to drop back in coverage on every down.  Add to that Jamaal's pass-catching ability and a whole other dimension to the offense opens up for Cassel to use.

3)     Dwayne Bowe  -  Just a guess here, but I’m thinking ‘Somewhere Over the Dwaynebow’ is done with diuretics, which means Cassel will have one of the best young receivers in the game for a full 16-game season next year.  Add to that another off-season to build up a good rapport and we could see both Cassel and Bowe break out together in 2010.

4)     The Numbers  -  Like Matt Ryan and the Falcons, the Chiefs will have an easier schedule in 2010.  The overall combined record of the teams Kansas City faced this past year was 132-124, whereas the combined 2009 record of the teams they will face in 2010 is 125-131.  Furthermore, like Atlanta, the opposing Pass Defenses they will face next year will be much more porous than what they faced in 2009.  In fact, the numbers are almost identical between Atlanta and KC:  A 12.13 average ranking in 2009 compared to a 16.38 average ranking of their opponents Pass D’s in 2010.

If Charlie Weis can implement his offense with complete comprehension before the beginning of next season, and Cassel, Charles, and Bowe can gel over the off-season, I expect Cassel to rise from his 20^th ranking in '09 to being right on the cusp of being able to be used as a starting fantasy QB in 2010.

Felix Jones

All the talk in the Dallas off-season was that Felix Jones was going to be given the chance to split carries out of the Cowboys backfield in 2009.  Didn’t happen.  Well, not until the final quarter of the season, and definitely not enough to make a difference in the world of fantasy.  It wasn’t until the last game on the schedule that Felix finally got more touches in a game than the other running backs on the roster, and Jones would eventually end up with 105 less touches than Marion Barber over the course of the year.

What makes me think that the Cowboys will give Felix Jones the shot at top RB on the team in 2010, especially after putting up a strong playoff season like they did?

1)     Talent  -  Felix Jones, plain and simple, is the most talented RB on the Cowboys roster.  Barber may be strong, and Tashard Choice may have a nice, well-rounded game, but Felix brings it all to the table in spades.  His speed and shiftiness are off the charts, and his ability to take it to the house and change the game on any given play is immeasurable.  He is very much in the mold of a Chris Johnson, in that the electricity he exudes whenever the ball is in his hands is downright heart-stopping.  Dallas knows this, and I expect them to put their knowledge into action come 2010.

2)     Marion Barber  -  Barber has become too much of a one-dimensional back.  He started out as a short-yardage/goal-line bruiser in 2006, then had his role expanded in 2007-08 to pretty much an every-down type of guy.  But this year, his declining YPC and ability to get those tough yards fell to the point of being noticeable, and his lack of catches out of the backfield made him a bit too easy to read whenever he was out there.  OC Jason Garrett loves to pass the pill, so to be a feature back in his offense, you’d better be able to make something happen in the vertical game as well.

3)     Injuries/Carrying the Load  -  One of the bigger knocks on Felix over the years is that he’s never proven that he can endure a full-year's worth of beating as the No. 1 guy in a backfield.  In college, he was the second option behind Darren McFadden at Arkansas for three years, never carrying the ball more than 154 times in a season.  In the pros, he’s already had a couple of injuries, with a toe injury cutting short his rookie season and a sprained PCL forcing him to miss a couple of games in 2009.  However, when Barber started to break down towards the end of this season, Jones was counted upon to handle more of the touches in the offense.  He responded much better than the ‘Boys could have hoped for... and then there were the playoffs.  Against two tough-nosed defenses in Philly and Minnesota, Felix was given 17 touches/game and produced like a top RB in the league should, scoring one TD and gaining 269 total yards from scrimmage in those two games combined.

Felix has emerged as an obvious choice for the lead-back role of the Cowboys future.  The question is, will he garner enough touches to be able to make a difference on fantasy teams in 2010?  After seeing what he did at the end of the 2009 season, I believe Dallas has no choice but to give Jones his due.  Expect him to break out of his Handcuff status of 2009 and become a starting RB for fantasy teams next year.

Matt Forte

Matt Forte was a clear-cut selection as a No. 1 RB for fantasy teams in 2009 and was a top-5 pick in most fantasy drafts.  What those owners received as a return on their investment over the course of the season was Sunday after Sunday of severe mental distress and in the end, were left with nothing short of a long fantasy off-season highlighted by Beam-and-Cokes and a seven-month head-pounding depression.  There were a number of reasons why this unforeseen fall to 17^th on the fantasy running back rankings occurred, and all of them have the ability to be corrected before next year.

1)     Mike Tice  -  The biggest problem the Bears had this year was along the offensive line.  They were completely inept in ‘09, having not just season-long troubles with opening holes to run through, but also in giving Jay Cutler enough time to find open receivers.  Mike Tice was hired to fix that problem, and fix that problem he will.  He’s one of the best O-line coaches in the business as he tutored 5 different linemen in Minnesota to 10 Pro Bowl appearances.  If anybody can turn the Bears offensive line woes around, it’s Tice, and Forte will benefit greatly from it.

2)     Jay Cutler/Bears WRs  -  Even though Cutler demanded respect from opposing defenses, it didn’t outweigh the lack of respect they had for the Bears wide receivers.  The entire sporting world, minus Bears GM Jerry Angelo, had the Bears receivers ranked in the bottom few teams in the NFL coming into 2009.  However, by the end of the year, a few guys ended up giving Chicago hope for the future at that position, as Devin Hester and rookies Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu turned heads at various points during the season.  Give Jay Cutler a full off-season to gain some rapport with these guys and opposing defenses will have to stop putting 8 in the box against the Bears, thus giving Matt Forte a lot more room to run.

3)     Nagging Injuries  -  Forte played through a slew of injuries in ’09.  From a partially torn hamstring to a sprained MCL, Forte had to tough them all out over the 16 games, and each of his injuries will be completely healed by the time OTAs roll around.  Health makes a huge difference from year to year.

4)     The Numbers  -  The Bears had to play against the hard-nosed defenses of the AFC North in 2009, something they won’t have to do in 2010.  The average ranking of opposing teams Rush Defenses this past year was 11.44, one of the toughest in the NFL.  Next year, that number goes up to 12.81 based on the 2009 stats.  It’s not a huge jump, but it can definitely make a difference when all is said and done.

An off-season to become fully healthy, along with a better offensive line and more cohesiveness in the Bears overall offense, should be all Matt Forte needs to rise back up into the elite fantasy backs in 2010.  He finished in the top-5 back in 2008, and though he may not reach that lofty goal again next year, I fully expect him to rank in the top-10 when ’10 fantasy season ends.

Steve Smith

Everyone figured on Steve Smith finishing in the top-10 in WR fantasy points this year, maybe even in the top-5, so how the hell did he end up down in the 19-slot?!?!  With defenses having to key in on the Panthers awesome rushing attack, Smitty was a sure bet to take advantage of the situation and come away with elite wide receiver numbers in the end.  Not even close.  In fact, Smith finished with less than 1,000 yards in a non-injury plagued season for the first time since 2002.  His 66 catches were also the lowest output since 2002. 

Is this the beginning of the end for the 30-year old, 5’9” beast?  I don’t think so, and I’ll tell you why:

1)     Matt Moore  -  The Panthers may finally be rid of one of the most over-rated QBs in the history of the NFL, Jake Delhomme.  He’ll most likely still be on the team, as the Carolina brass made the mistake of giving him a 5-year deal that runs through 2014, a contract that would be tough to tear up if the collective bargaining agreement talks go well.  However, Jake the Mistake won’t be the starter, and that alone gives Steve Smith more value.  What’s more, though, is that Carolina finally found out what they have in young QB Matt Moore, and what they have is a guy who worked well with Smith down the stretch while leading the Panthers to a 4-1 record down the stretch.

2)     Muhsin Muhammad  -  Steve Smith needs some pressure taken off his shoulders, and he needs it now.  Muhammad is a virtual fossil out there, and the Panthers can’t live with him as their No. 2 WR any longer.  They thought they had his replacement when they drafted Dwayne Jarrett back in ’07, but after just 33 catches and 1 TD in his three-year career, Carolina realizes they need someone better to compliment Smith.  Who that will be, I have no idea at this point, but management knows they need somebody, and they’ll be sure to go out and get him for Smith.

3)     The Running Game  -  Even though the Panthers put out two 1,000-yard rushers this year, they weren’t nearly as dominant as they were in 2008, especially in the early going.  Only 18 TDs (10^th in the NFL) this year compared to 30 in ’08 (1^st) put a lot more pressure on Delhomme and Smith to produce.  A healthy DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in 2010, coupled with the fact that they’ll both be playing for their futures in one form or another next year, will do wonders in opening up space for Steve Smith to use his supreme talent once again.

4)     The Numbers  -  Carolina had it super-tough this year, as the combined record of the teams they faced ended up at 138-118.  That won’t be the case next year as the overall 2009 record of the teams they’ll face in 2010 is 122-134.  That’s a HUGE turnaround from one year to the next.  Another giant number playing out in Smith’s favor next year will be in the average ranking of opposing Pass Defenses.  This year, Smith faced teams with a 16.2 average rank, while next year that number jumps up to a whopping average of 19.63.  Both of these facts should play a big part in bringing Smith’s numbers back up to where they normally would be.

There’s no doubt that Steve Smith is an ultimate talent amongst wide receivers in the NFL, but sometimes there are just too many factors playing against you to overcome them all.  That won’t be a problem for Smith in 2010, and in fact, there are so many determinants playing into his favor next year that I couldn’t imagine him not returning to elite status and finishing in the top-10 in ’10, maybe even the top-5.

Calvin "Megatron" Johnson

How in the world did Calvin Johnson fall from 3^rd in WR fantasy points one year, then all the way down to 23^rd the next?!?!  It was like watching Brady Anderson hit 50 homeruns in 1996 only to fall off to 18 homers the next year around.  Of course, nobody is going to question Megatron on whether or not he used steroids.  That would be ridiculous.  However, with talent like his, it’s tough to make sense of it all, yet there definitely were a bundle of factors playing into his collapse.  When you go into the season as a surefire top-5 player at your position, and then suddenly fall off the face of the fantasy planet, there has to be reasons.  These reasons will be the same reasons ‘Tron returns to the fantasy elite in 2010.

1)     Rookie QB Matthew Stafford  -  Rookie QBs tend to take at least a year or so to fully understand the nuances of the NFL compared to what they did in college, and No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford is no exception.  It takes some time to get on the same page as your receivers, and when you throw into the mix that the Lions were as awful as they were, your finest talents will end up pushing too hard to make an impact and likely cause even more problems.  Give Stafford and Calvin a full off-season to get used to each other and watch how in tune they are with that first season and off-season under their belt.  Stafford’s got a ton of talent, and Johnson will reap the benefits as soon as next year.

2)     Injuries  -  The Lions were decimated by injuries in 2009, from Stafford, to RB Kevin Smith, to multiple offensive linemen, and yes, even Megatron couldn’t escape the bug.  Johnson injured his knee in just the 5^th game of the season and never quite recovered.  He missed a couple games and only played parts of others, but for the most part he gutted it out for the rest of the year.  None of the injuries are serious, however, and he’ll be perfectly healthy for the OTAs and 2010 season.

3)     No WR2  -  The Lions had a ton of weaknesses last year, but one of the most glaring to those that had the stomach to watch their games this year was the lack of a complementary receiver to Calvin.  The two receivers they depended on to take the pressure off ‘Tron were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt, neither of whom I expect to be in the NFL next year.  They combined for 70 catches, 774 yards, and 4 TDs, numbers that would barely pass for a solid WR2 if it was just one player.  The Detroit brass has already made a note of this shortcoming and have made it clear that one of their major off-season goals will be to get a WR who can take the triple-teams off of their biggest asset.

Make no mistake about it, Calvin Johnson will return to the WR fantasy elite in 2010.  His talent alone should be able to accomplish that.  How many receivers out there can say that they stand 6’5”, weigh over 230 pounds, yet run a 4.35 forty?  There’s only a couple that are close; Andre Johnson and Randy Moss, and guess where they ended up on the 2009 WR fantasy points list?  That’s right, Nos. 1 and 2.  Believe it, Megatron will be right back up there on top with them in 2010.

Dwayne Bowe

I can’t say I expected Bowe to be in the top-10, or even top-15 receivers in 2009, but down around the No. 50 mark?  Yeah, sure, he was suspended for 4 games due to the NFL finding a diuretic in his system, and he missed another with a hamstring injury, but 50^th?!?!  Bowe finished his 2007 rookie season in the top-25 and then rose to the top-16 in 2008, so a fall like this could not have been expected by anybody.  The good thing is that this sudden decline had nothing to do with Dwayne Bowe as a wide receiver, which gives me plenty of good reasons to expect him to return to top-20, starting fantasy WR status in 2010.

1)     Charlie Weis  -  The ways in which Weis will be helping QB Matt Cassel move up the fantasy rankings in 2010, the same will apply to the movement upwards for Dwayne Bowe.   His Erhardt-Perkins offensive system is tested to be affective in the growth and polish of QBs, WRs, and even RBs who can catch out of the backfield like Jamaal Charles.  Bowe stands to only get better under the tutelage of new OC Charlie Weis, as does the whole offense around him.

2)     Gel with Cassel  -  Bowe has had four different QBs throwing to him in his three years as a pro, and Matt Cassel is easily the best of them.  Bowe was able to produce with guys like Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen in his first two years, so I expect a full off-season of gelling with Cassel will lead to even better production in 2010, especially once they learn the nuances of Weis’ new system together.

3)     Jamaal Charles  -  Just as the presence of RB Jamaal Charles will help the stats of Cassel, so will they increase the numbers for Bowe.  Larry Johnson became useless last season on the Chiefs, which allowed for defenses to have no problem in double-teaming Bowe on a weekly basis.  Once Johnson was jettisoned and Charles was promoted to the starting tailback last year, the offense started to open up and the double-teams on receivers started to dissipate.  This trend will continue into next year and help Bowe jump back into the upper-class of NFL wide receivers in 2010.

4)     The Numbers  -  The numbers read the same as they do for Cassel:  The overall combined record of the teams Kansas City faced this past year was 132-124, whereas the combined 2009 record of the teams they will face in 2010 is 125-131.  The same goes for opposing Pass Defenses in that the Chiefs faced a 12.13 average ranking in 2009 compared to what will be a 16.38 average ranking of their opponents Pass D’s in 2010.  The numbers don’t lie, so elevated statistics will definitely be easier for Bowe to come across next season than they were this past year.

‘Somewhere Over the Dwaynebow’ simply has too much talent and too many intangibles not to return to the top 15 receivers in 2010.  The implementation of Charlie Weis’ offensive system, an offense that led the Patriots to three Super Bowl wins, and a full off-season of getting all the pieces together on the same page should vault Bowe back up into the fantasy Tops of the league after being one of the worst fantasy Flops in the 2009 season.

Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen finished 10^th in the league in fantasy points for tight ends this year, so you may be asking, “Why is a top-10 finish considered a flop?”  If Usain Bolt all the sudden started coming in 3^rd place in Olympic sprints, you’d consider that a flop, right?  The same thought process applies to Olsen in this case.  When expectations are high and those expectations are undershot by as much as Olsen missed them, that would be a decent definition of a “flop”.  Olsen was predicted by many to turn the Big Four of fantasy tight ends (Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, and Jason Witten) into the Big Five this year, so barely finishing in the top-10 was truly disappointing to fantasy owners.

However, 2010 should bring about the rise of Greg Olsen that everybody expected in 2009, and I’ll tell you why:

1)     Mike Tice  -  The same reasons that saw Matt Forte falter in his 2009 campaign can be looked at as a reason for Olsen’s demise as well.  The offensive line.  Once the Bears coaches saw how bad their O-line was, they realized that one of the only ways to keep Jay Cutler from getting killed was to keep their tight ends in to block much more than they would have liked.  That won’t be the case in 2010 as one of the best O-line coaches in the NFL, Mike Tice, was brought in to stabilize that area of need.  Olsen should be given the freedom to run all the pass-patterns he can handle next year because of this.

2)     Jay Cutler  -  Despite the various struggles and adversity he experienced this past season, make no mistake about it, Jay Cutler is a very good young quarterback, and Greg Olsen knows this.  I expect those two to work extremely hard together in the off-season in order to get thoroughly in sync as they head into the 2010 season.  What’s more, Cutler did well to use his tight ends while in Denver, leading them to averages of 72.5 catches, 957.5 yards, and seven TDs from 2007-2008.  Olsen is far better than any of the TEs Cutler had to work with over those couple of years, so I would think Olsen should be able to put up similar numbers to those, and possibly surpass them.

3)     Talent  -  Olsen is by far one of the most giftedly skilled tight ends in the league, and he’ll only be 25-years old in 2010.  At 6’5” and 255 pounds, all while being able to run a 4.51 forty-yard dash, he becomes a mismatch in pretty much any situation you can imagine.  When running his intermediate routes, Olsen is simply too fast for linebackers to cover with any consistency.  When he stretches the field in his post-patterns, he’s naturally too tall for defensive backs or safeties to handle.  He’s a rare specimen when it comes to his position, and the Bears will do everything they can to exploit his abilities.

You can’t keep a sleeping giant down for long, so I expect the length of Olsen’s slump to be confined to the 2009 season alone.  The prediction of his break into the elite fantasy tight ends of the league may have been held off for a year, but I foresee 2010 as being the year he joins the other big tight end names atop the fantasy heap.

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By d-Rx

Just like Bill Walsh, I stumbled upon Jerry Rice, my favorite athlete of all-time, by shear chance. I just happened to be in the right place (in front of a television), at the right time (while Jerry Rice was about to do something memorable). Not to be dramatic, but it's a journey that means a lot to me as a person, and the following Legends piece is meant to shine a light on an amazing man, the best wide receiver to ever play the game, and in many eyes - my own included, the best NFL player ever to live - regardless of position.

Jerry and I crossed paths for the first time during a weekly tradition of watching Monday Night Football with my father. It was against the L.A. Rams and the Niners were my dad's team cause he loved Norte Dame and "Mr. Perfect" Joe Montana. In the pre-game commentary I remember the weird combination of Monday Night announcers they had, it was led by of course, the ultra playboy Frank Gifford (and you wonder why his wife is crazy), O.J. Simpson (no comment), and what appeared to be a drunk and sluring "Broadway Joe" Namath (see our Legends piece of him on this site). What a motley mix in the booth, who ever came up with that trio… it lasted 1 year, as did Namath.

Anyway, these three were talking, about a team that had won the Super Bowl the year before no less, the niners, and all they were talking about the whole time was this rookie wideout from a school I had never heard of (Mississippi Valley State) that the team had such high hopes for, but was sucking it up bigtime - dropping everything and losing the faith of the team. I was like this team are the Champions, why are they talking about some rookie that wasn't there last year when they became champions so much.

The game started, and Joe was stumbling over words, while this disappointing rookie, Jerry Rice put on a crazy display against the Rams secondary. This kid was electrifying, my father and I had never seen anything like it, he was just obviously the most gifted person on the field, it was like he was playing a different speed than the rest of the players on the field. He was much like Chris Johnson is today, video-gameesque. It was one of those ahhh moments in my life, that I have had a hand full in my entire 36 years on Earth. You know, that feeling, when you knew you discovered something that you can just love, cherrish and will be sacred to you forever. Anyway, sorry if I get all whiley niley willy writing this piece… this is moving stuff for yours truly. Rice arrived in that game, ending the game with 10 catches for a then team record 241 yards, with a 66 yard TD. Rice had a handful of enormous plays, including a 52 yard catch that lead to a Roger Craig TD. I had a FLASH 80 jersey within a couple weeks, it was mail order - oye - you internet babies are lucky with your cell phones and world wide web.*

"I call that my coming out game, I went in really relaxed, and when it was over, I knew I could play profession football." - Jerry Rice 

Jerry Rice is the best player I have ever seen play the game of football. There are a select few players that are worthy of consideration as the best player in NFL history, maybe we say there are 10-15 players that are in the discussion. While probably all being varied in the contributions to the game and the things they did to earn consideration as the games best ever. My guess is that if  you asked 100 experts and polled 100 fans from accross the country, who is the Greatest of All-Time? My guess is that Jerry Rice will win be the player that ends up with the most votes. If not, whatever, maybe I give him too much credit, but the guy has changed the game like no one that has ever played during my lifetime. The way Jordan changed the guard position and the fandom that came along with his style of play, the way Jerry did for the prima donna mindset. Rice was the NFL's answer to the Michael Jordan phenomenon. Once Rice arrived, every kid that loved football, wanted to be a wide receiver and chances are, they wanted to be the magnificent Jerry "Flash 80" Rice. 

The next time I got to watch him, was round 1 of the playoffs against the New York Giants. I was really fired up to watch Jerry again, in a playoff atmoshpere, where on cue in the first half, he caught a bomb, had no one in his path to a for sure touchdown. Opps. Wait no, what just happened? Jerry with no ones doing but his own knee - this great hope, in his biggest moment as a professional athlete - fumbled the ball off his knee on his way to a TD, no one touched him… the game was never the same again… the G-Men went on to kill the Niners and win the Super Bowl.

Oye. But I feel that single play turned him into the GOAT. It was that play that turned him from a great player to the best ever.

"He's one of the people that give the game dignity, in a time when that dignity seems to be escaping us." - Bill Walsh, Hall of Fame Coach

I could go on forever on his whole career and promise to do so on the day he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame and he and I both have tears on our face (I cried at Jordan's induction a few months back). This is a great man, and he will always be a big part of Pyromaniac.com. The first character we ever made for the site was Jerry Rice (Larry Fitzgerald the first active player). 

To earn a spot in the NFL Hall of Fame, a player must consistently play at a level above that of his contemporaries.  To call Jerry Rice merely a cut above his peers would be a dramatic understatement.  Jerry Rice is the best wide receiver in NFL history, and his combination of production, consistency, and longevity has never been matched. Jerry Rice was the perfect blend of intelligence, dedication, concentration, and athleticism.  If one word could possibly serve to encompass his game, the only logical choice would be ‘graceful’.   His soft hands seemed to stick to every ball thrown his way.  After the catch, Rice never needed to juke or stutter.  He simply just glided through the sea of flailing defenders, sailing smoothly into the end zone untouched.  At 6’2, he was a good-sized target for a quarterback (tall those days), and his flawless route running always put him in the right place at the right time to catch the football.

Over the next eleven seasons, Rice never once dipped below 1,000 yards, cementing himself as the most consistent receiver to have ever played the game.  Rice and the 49ers won Super Bowls XXIII, XXIV, and XXIX in that span, Rice winning MVP honors in XXIII. In 1997, Rice was brought down with a rough facemask by Tampa Bay’s Warren "QBKilla" Sapp, tearing his ACL and shelving him for nearly the duration of the season.  A premature return resulted in another knee injury and held him out of a Pro Bowl for the first time since his rookie year. In that year, I took Jerry Rice with the first overall pick in our 8 man league. I was devistated, my favorite player, that I was able to get with a unlikely first pick in the draft, down right out of the gates (it was like Brady last year). No way Jose!!! F!!

So I still get into the playoffs, and it's the first round of the playoffs, and I'm playing Stitchface!!! Rice is back, playing in week #15 against the Denver Broncos, he had rehabbed his ass off all season, well documented, he was a crazy over-achiever, hardest working guy imaginable. In one of the most memorable moments in our leagues history (definitely in my fantasy career) Rice scored a touchdown for me, breaking his knee cap in the process. Of course I'm playing Rice when he comes back!! So, I am up by I don't remember how points on my opponent Stitchface, and he has a talented rookie Fred Lane (yeah that Fred Lane - total bullshit!) a guy that had 100 yards and 2 TDs the week before, playing on Monday Night Football. Long story short, Fred Lane had 138 yards in the game and was stopped from the 1 yard line 4 times in a goal line stand by the Dallas Cowboys to give him 0 TDs for the game. Had he scored there, Stitchface is in the Championship game. Instead Nuna's Tuna's go into the big game and win it all!! Holla' for your boy!

Again sorry, just have to get this all off my chest. Rice bounced back in 1998 with another 1,000+ yard season, but his production slowly began to taper as his long career caught up with him.  Rice signed with the Oakland Raiders after the 2000 season, marking the first time that he had played for a team other than the 49ers since 1985.  Rice enjoyed three solid seasons in Oakland, going to another Super Bowl and having a great game with 77 yards and a TD at 40 years old. They lost the game, and he was traded to Seattle midway through the 2004 season, which would be the last of his career.

Rice retired from football after the 2004 season and resurfaced as a dancing machine on ABC’s Dancing With the Stars, ultimately coming in second place.  Rice has also popped up intermittently on a variety of reality shows.  He has co-authored two books, and has a son Jerry Jr., who plays at UCLA as a walk on.

When it was all said and done for Rice, he was easily the most dominant wide receiver the game had ever seen.  His 22,895 career receiving yards is the most in league history, dwarfing second place Tim Brown’s total by over 7,000 yards.  His 208 total TDs (11 rushing) are 33 more than runner-up Emmitt Smith. His 197 career touchdown catches put him 49 touchdowns ahead of second-place Randy Moss and 53 touchdowns ahead of third-turd holding Terrell Owens.  Rice’s 14 1,000+ yard seasons is an astonishing testament to his durability and consistency.  Much like the quarterback who threw to him for many of the best years of Rice’s career, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice didn’t have the assets to dominate the game on a physical level.  Instead, he relied upon his own consistent approach and knowledge of the game to play the game the way it was meant to be played.  Rice wasn’t a prototype player, a project, or a raw athlete.  Rather he was likely the most refined player that the game had ever seen.

*I had to be home to get the call where the party was in order to hang out with my friends. Sucked. Wish I had a mobile phone, facebook page and 3 email addresses at age 7 like my nephews do.

Go Long!: My Journey Beyond the Game and the Fame

      CJ28 vs AP28 thru their first 31 games in the NFL

From:  Alex Turner, Yuma, Arizona

Question:
I realize it's a bit early for a projection like this, but who do you guys think should be the #1 pick in the 2010 fantasy draft, Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson?  I know AP had a bit of an off-year, but I expect him to bounce back strong next season.  What are your thoughts?  Thanks in advance.

Pyro Answer:
First off, thank you for your question.  We love talking fantasy over here at Pyro headquarters, no matter what time of the year it is.
Second, it's NEVER too early to dive into all the ins and outs of next year's draft, and this is the perfect question to start off all the speculation.

You really can't go wrong taking either one of these guys, but there are a bunch of question marks to consider:

1)  Rules of your League
- If you play in a PPR league, the edge would go to Chris Johnson.  AP is gaining ground in the receptions category, but with the Vikings likely to re-sign Chester Taylor, or even place a transition/franchise tag on him, I can't see Peterson's receptions going more than a few over the 43 he had in 2009.
- If you play in a league that rewards long TDs, again, the edge would go to CJ28.  It's not that Peterson can't rattle off a long one here and there, but it's not nearly as sure of a thing as Johnson doing it.
- If you play in a yardage league where all TDs are equal, the edge goes to AP.  He seems to have gained a nose for the endzone, and with Johnson's yards likely to come down and Peterson's likely to go up, the TDs would put AP slightly over the top.

EDGE: Chris Johnson (slight)   

2)  Offensive Line
- The Vikings had two O-Linemen elected to the Pro Bowl in 2009 (OG Steve Hutchinson, OT Bryant McKinnie) compared to the Titans one (C Kevin Mawae), but don't let the numbers fool you.  Tennessee has one of the best offensive lines in the league, if not THE best, while Minnesota's line is overrated at the very least.  The one thing the Vikings have on the Titans in this area is Free Agency.  The entire Vikings line is under contract for at least 2010, while two of the Titans starters, C Kevin Mawae and G Eugene Amano, will be looking for new contracts this off-season.  The even bigger problem is that the Titans have a more-than-normal load of free agents to satisfy this off-season, so one of the two is likely to go.  Mawae is a great leader, but he's also 39 years old.  He could land a one-year contract, but it would be at the expense of the much younger, and close to equally-capable, Amano.  Luckily, the Titans have another good young lineman waiting in the wings named Leroy Harris.  Whichever one goes, Harris can simply be plugged in his place.  The Titans have the slight edge here as well.

EDGE: Chris Johnson (slight)   

3)  Quarterback
- When Brett Favre entered the scene, everyone thought he'd simply be the threat that kept defenses from stacking the box against AP, yet continue to let Peterson run the show.  Not...  Even...  Close...  Bud.  In fact, 2009 saw Peterson's touches drop from 384 in 2008 to 357 in 2009, even though the Vikings were playing with the lead for much of the season.  On the other hand, as far as Vince Young is concerned, Chris Johnson played way better with Vinsanity at the helm as opposed to when Kerry Collins ran the show.  Johnson averaged 120.3 total yards (99.3 rushing, 21.0 receiving) on 18.5 touches per game while Collins was the QB, compared to 178.7 total yards (141.0 rushing, 37.7 receiving) on 29.7 touches per game with Young under center.  Pretty huge difference there.  Now the big questions are, will Brett Favre return to play out the final year of his contract, and will the Titans continue to go with VY in 2010?  The first one is a question I won't come close to addressing until the summer, but whether Favre comes back or not, I expect Peterson's touches to be right around those of Chris Johnson's this next year.  The second one is a resounding Yes, the Titans will most definitely be going with Vinsanity in 2010.  Plain and simply, the guy is a winner, no matter how he looks doing it.  In the end, with the numbers CJ28 put up with Young as the quarterback, I'd have to give the slight edge to Johnson again.

EDGE: Chris Johnson      

4)  Patience
- From what I can tell, Chris Johnson is one of the more patient young backs in the league.  When going to the outside, he follows his blockers at all costs, and then turns on the jets at the absolute optimal time after the play has fully developed.  Even on inside runs, Johnson seems to wait for his line to get to their proper spots before charging into contact.  However, AP is a completely different story.  In fact, it’s been said that the senior and most effective lineman on the Vikings line, Steve Hutchinson, has been begging Peterson for the past two years to be more patient and to follow his blocks.  Hutch said that AP has been relying on his all-world talent way too heavily instead of letting the play develop the way it should, and as a result, the league has caught up to his smash-through-the-play tendencies.  That being said, I expect the coaches to work extensively with him on that this off-season, along with his much maligned propensity to fumble the ball.  Again, the edge goes to Chris Johnson here.

EDGE: Chris Johnson      

5)  Anger/Determination
- When AP came out of college as a junior in 2007, the word around draft circles was that he was 'injury-prone' and at least two teams acknowledged that his health was definitely a consideration in how they went about their draft analysis of him.  Was it warranted?  Maybe, maybe not, but the real telltale is how AP reacted to it...  "I'm a player who is coming in with the determination to turn a team around. I want to help my team get to the playoffs, win… and run wild. I want to bring people to the stands. I want people to come to the game to see what I can do next. Things like that can change the whole attitude of an organization. I want to win." (Robinson, Jon (2007-05-04) "Adrian Peterson Interview". IGN. http://sports.ign.com/articles/785/785800p1.html.)  Basically, Purple Jesus is at his best when faced with a challenge, when standing toe-to-toe with adversity, and plenty of people are questioning AP right now.  From his fumbling problem to his lack of 100-yard games this past year, from his own coaches using backup Chester Taylor and Old Man Favre in pressure situations to his own linemen questioning his ability to follow instructions, Adrian Peterson will certainly be facing a telltale year in 2010.  Our bet's on Purple Jesus rising to the challenge.

EDGE: Adrian Peterson      

Of course, it's only February, and we have a full off-season ahead of us to see where these two fantasy overlords end up in their pursuit for #1.  All the early factors indicate that CJ28 should be the first name fired out of owners mouths come August, but I guarantee you, Purple Jesus will have something to say about that over the next six months, so sit tight fantasy lovers.  There's a lot of time to figure out which lion will end up ruling the pride.

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