As the first fantasy football decade of the new millennium comes to a close, we here at Pyro thought it appropriate to give our readers a bird’s-eye view of the significant fantasy stats that played out over the past ten years.  We also decided it would be interesting to give our viewers a bit of a different perspective and show how those same statistical categories looked back in the decade when fantasy football was gaining its momentum and taking the form of what it has become today:  The 90s.

There are a few striking points of interest here that we’d like to point out, just so they don’t escape the attention of your fantasy subconscious: 

Quarterbacks

QB  -  Notice how the trend of 4000+ Yard and 25+ TD passers has gone up these past few years.  More and more teams seem to be switching to a pass-heavy attack nowadays, which means more QBs are primed with the ability to climb into what was once known as the ‘elite’ status.

FANTASY Relevance  -  What this means in terms of fantasy is that the premium paid on these ‘elite’ QBs isn’t quite what it used to be.  Using a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on a player like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees might not give you the same value now as compared to those who take high-end running backs or wide receivers with those picks.  In years past, having Manning or Tom Brady could make all the difference in winning your league.  But now, besides #1 fantasy QB Aaron Rodgers (who had an unbelievable year), the difference between the #2 QB and the #9 QB was just 25 points in a basic fantasy scoring format.

Running Backs

RB  -  Notice that even though the number of 1200+ Yard rushers has gone down as of late, the number of 10+ TD rushers has gone up.  The reason behind this is yet another trend that seems to be taking over the NFL… the RBBC (Running Back By Committee).  More and more teams are using two (or three) RBs in their offensive scheme in order to keep their backfield fresh throughout the game.  However, there are two different types of RBBCs that are being employed.  1)  The “Smash and Dash” - This strain of the RBBC lets the more athletic RB of the two (or three) collect the lion’s share of the carries throughout the game while allowing the bigger RB takes on the short-yardage and goal-line carries.

FANTASY Relevance  -  Without being allowed to take on all the carries in a game, it’s hard for the athletic back to reach that 1200-yard mark over the course of the season.  At the same time, it also takes away their ability to gain value in the TD department.  As for the bigger back, he won’t come close to having a relevant amount of yardage to make a fantasy difference during the season, but gains a decent amount of value simply by stealing away TDs from the smaller, more athletic back.  2)  The “Who’s Better? Split” – This species of the RBBC can easily be the most annoying.  It’s when a team enters into the season having no idea which of their running backs is the better suited for the job and decides that the best way to go about the dilemma is to give each of them an even split of the carries out of the backfield.

FANTASY Relevance  -  Sometimes the split is 50-50, sometimes 60-40, but whatever the case, neither RB comes out having enough fantasy value to be able to start him on your fantasy team with confidence each week.

Wide Receivers

WR  -  The amount of 1200+ Yard and 10+ TD receivers doesn’t seem to waver much regardless of how many QBs end up with ‘elite’ status during any particular year.

FANTASY Relevance  -  What this shows is that the reward for fantasy owners who end up drafting one of those hidden gems that rise to the classification of ’elite’ receiver each year, can be the one maneuver that lands them the coveted pot ‘o gold in the end.  Every good fantasy player knows that there will always be those 4-6 receivers that will be at the top of the league every season, and of course, it’s nice to have one of those guys.  However, for those who use their top draft picks keeping pace with the rest of the league concerning running backs and QBs, it’s those one or two wide receivers that you grab in the later rounds of the draft that can make all the difference in whether your team prospers or hits the skids.  Basically, wide receivers demand research, and the more legwork you put in, the happier your team will be through the whole of the season.

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The New Orleans Saints Superbowl Drinking Game

1. Every time they mention Hurricane Katrina, drink 1

2. If they show pictures of the City of New Orleans right after Katrina, drink 1

3. Every time they say how much the Saints mean to the City of New Orleans, drink 1

4. Every time the words "tragedy", "flood", or "devastation" are used, drink 1

5. Every time they talk about how good Reggie Bush was in college, drink 3

6. If they show Kim Kardashian in the stands, drink 5

7. Every time they show a picture of Reggie Bush with a bat or say "bringing the wood", drink for 5 seconds

8. Every time Reggie Bush gets negative yardage trying to run around in the backfield making jukes and outrun the defense, drink 1 and turn to the person next to you and say "I told you Vince Young should have won the Heisman"

9. Every time Reggie Bush gets up and flexes his arms in that pose he likes to do, drink 1

10. If they mention Tim Tebow for any reason, funnel a beer

11. Every time they say that "it's destiny for the Saints to win", drink 1

12. If they show footage of Katrina survivors at the Superdome, take a shot of cheap liquor

13. If they call Saints fans the most passionate fans in football, drink 1

14. If they say that the Saints, Saints fans, or the CIty of New Orleans "deserve" a Superbowl victory, drink 1

15. Every time they say how good of a story the Saints are, drink 1

16. If Jeremy Shockey pretends to be hurt after dropping a pass, drink 2

17. If they mention the Bears beating the Saints in 2006 to get to the Superbowl, cry and remember when our team was good and we had a chance to win a championship… then shotgun a beer

18. Every time they mention Drew Brees as the Mardi Gras King, drink 1

19. Every time they show Archie Manning, drink 1 and mention how bad he sucked as a player. If they show old footage of him on the Saints, drink 5. If they mention how tough of a decision it was for him as for whom to cheer for, drink 10

20. Every time they show a Saints fan yelling "Who dat!" or a sign/shirt saying the same, drink 1

Other Rules Not Involving Saints:

1. Every time they show Eli Manning in the press box, drink 1

2. Every time Pierre Garçon is mentioned with Haiti, drink 1

3. If Brett Favre is mentioned for any reason, drink 1 

HERE IS A PRINTABLE VERSION FOR YOU TO BRING TO YOUR SUPER BOWL PARTY. CLICK HERE FOR THE PDF.

by Uncle Dogmatica

Matt Ryan

Many people had Matt Ryan pegged as a possible top-ten fantasy QB going into the 2009 season.  Well, many people turned out to be wrong.  However, with the addition of All-Pro tight end Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White’s rise to elite status, and the domination of RB Michael "Burner" Turner, who could be blamed for making that call?  Hell, we had Ryan tabbed as the No. 11 QB going into the season, and with good reason.  Ryan had one of the best rookie seasons ever, as you’d have to go back to 1998 and Peyton Manning to find a rook who threw for more yards than he did in 2008.  He also put together a streak of nine straight games of 200+ yards, something Manning didn’t do until his second year in the league.  He played a steady game with poise and confidence, and ended up leading the Falcons to a playoff berth with an 11-5 record, seven games better than the previous year. 

So what happened that brought about the plunge to the 19^th fantasy QB in 2009 from 15^th in 2008?  There were a couple of factors: 

1)      Injuries, Injuries, and even more Injuries  -  When your star running back goes down, as Turner did, that allows the defense to take an extra man or two out of the box and put them back in coverage.  Couple that with various injuries to three different starting offensive linemen over the course of the season and you’re looking at some serious trouble for your QB.  Not to mention, Ryan got injured himself (turf toe, a much more painful injury than it sounds) during the 11^th game of the season and wasn’t the same from then on out.  Injuries really can kill a fantasy season, whether they’re to your player or not.

2)      Strength of Schedule  -  The Falcons had a cakewalk in Ryan’s rookie year due to their 4-12 record in 2007.  However, because Atlanta performed so well in 2008, they ended up with one of the toughest schedules in the league this past year.  The combined record of the teams they faced in 2008 compared to 2009 was 117-138-1 in ’08 to 129-127 in ’09.   That’s a pretty big difference as far as SoS goes.

So what makes us think that Ryan belongs in the group of players here that we’ve dubbed ‘Flops to Tops’?

1)      Health  -  First of all, Ryan has been told to rest his turf toe until March so that it can fully heal, a task which he’ll have no problem accomplishing.  He’ll be back at full strength next season, as will his beast of a running back “Burner” Turner.  You can’t say enough about health when it comes to a sport like football.

2)      Tony Gonzalez  -  This was the first year Gonzo played in a Mike Smith conservative, rush-based offensive system, so there were bound to be a few growing pains.  With a year under his belt of learning how to mesh with Ryan, Turner, Roddy White and the Smith system, the only place for production to go is up.  There were also rumors Tony G. might retire, but he quickly squashed the gossip by confirming his return in 2010 last week. 

3)      The Numbers  -  The Falcons will have an easier schedule in 2010, with the opposing teams combining for a 127-129 record in 2009.  Not just that, but the average ranking of their opponents Pass Defense is much more forgiving as well.  In 2009, the average rank of their opponents Pass D was 12.14, one of the toughest in the league (based on a scale from 1-32, with 1 being the toughest D).  In 2010, the Falcons see a four-slot turn as they will face Pass D's that sport an average ranking of 16.25.

With the return of the team’s overall health, another off-season to gel, and the numbers swinging back in their favor, look for Matt Ryan to jump into the top-12 fantasy QBs in 2010 and be a nice sleeper that can likely be had on the cheap.

Matt Cassel

Everybody and their mother knew Matt Cassel wouldn’t have the same success in Kansas City as he had with the Patriots in ’08, so his fall to 20^th in QB fantasy points in ’09 should come as no surprise to anyone.  No Randy Moss, no Wes Welker, no Bill Belichick, a first-year head coach in 42-year old Todd Haley, a major dip in offensive line talent, and the pressure of an oversized contract on his shoulders all spelled Catastrophe from the outset.  That said, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the man who spent his entire career as a back-up for Heisman Trophy winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, and then most recently, NFL MVP Tom Brady.

So, where does this tunnel end, and more importantly, how is Matt Cassel going to get there? 

1)     Charlie Weis  -  Sure, the swamp creature from the butterball lagoon could keel over at any moment, possibly before he gets the chance to even meet Matt Cassel, but if Weis does stay upright for at least one season, he undoubtedly will make a difference.  Weis is the one who installed the Erhardt-Perkins offensive system in New England that made Tom Brady into the QB he is today, a system that Belichick still uses and won three Super Bowls with.  For all of Notre Dame’s shortcomings while he was their head coach the past five years, one area they continually excelled at under Weis was the passing game.  Matt Cassel isn’t going to magically become the next Tom Brady, but one thing is for sure; Cassel and the Chiefs offense are going to get a lot better in 2010.

2)     Jamaal Charles  -  The evil toxin that goes by the name of Larry Johnson and his 2.9 YPC are gone from the Chiefs system.  The antidote?  Jamaal Charles and his 5.9 YPC, along with his 40 receptions out of the backfield.  Charles will force opposing defenses to pay attention to the Chiefs running game again, something they didn’t have to do with LJ toting the ball.  This will cause the field will open up considerably for Cassel and the wide receivers as defenses won't being able to drop back in coverage on every down.  Add to that Jamaal's pass-catching ability and a whole other dimension to the offense opens up for Cassel to use.

3)     Dwayne Bowe  -  Just a guess here, but I’m thinking ‘Somewhere Over the Dwaynebow’ is done with diuretics, which means Cassel will have one of the best young receivers in the game for a full 16-game season next year.  Add to that another off-season to build up a good rapport and we could see both Cassel and Bowe break out together in 2010.

4)     The Numbers  -  Like Matt Ryan and the Falcons, the Chiefs will have an easier schedule in 2010.  The overall combined record of the teams Kansas City faced this past year was 132-124, whereas the combined 2009 record of the teams they will face in 2010 is 125-131.  Furthermore, like Atlanta, the opposing Pass Defenses they will face next year will be much more porous than what they faced in 2009.  In fact, the numbers are almost identical between Atlanta and KC:  A 12.13 average ranking in 2009 compared to a 16.38 average ranking of their opponents Pass D’s in 2010.

If Charlie Weis can implement his offense with complete comprehension before the beginning of next season, and Cassel, Charles, and Bowe can gel over the off-season, I expect Cassel to rise from his 20^th ranking in '09 to being right on the cusp of being able to be used as a starting fantasy QB in 2010.

Felix Jones

All the talk in the Dallas off-season was that Felix Jones was going to be given the chance to split carries out of the Cowboys backfield in 2009.  Didn’t happen.  Well, not until the final quarter of the season, and definitely not enough to make a difference in the world of fantasy.  It wasn’t until the last game on the schedule that Felix finally got more touches in a game than the other running backs on the roster, and Jones would eventually end up with 105 less touches than Marion Barber over the course of the year.

What makes me think that the Cowboys will give Felix Jones the shot at top RB on the team in 2010, especially after putting up a strong playoff season like they did?

1)     Talent  -  Felix Jones, plain and simple, is the most talented RB on the Cowboys roster.  Barber may be strong, and Tashard Choice may have a nice, well-rounded game, but Felix brings it all to the table in spades.  His speed and shiftiness are off the charts, and his ability to take it to the house and change the game on any given play is immeasurable.  He is very much in the mold of a Chris Johnson, in that the electricity he exudes whenever the ball is in his hands is downright heart-stopping.  Dallas knows this, and I expect them to put their knowledge into action come 2010.

2)     Marion Barber  -  Barber has become too much of a one-dimensional back.  He started out as a short-yardage/goal-line bruiser in 2006, then had his role expanded in 2007-08 to pretty much an every-down type of guy.  But this year, his declining YPC and ability to get those tough yards fell to the point of being noticeable, and his lack of catches out of the backfield made him a bit too easy to read whenever he was out there.  OC Jason Garrett loves to pass the pill, so to be a feature back in his offense, you’d better be able to make something happen in the vertical game as well.

3)     Injuries/Carrying the Load  -  One of the bigger knocks on Felix over the years is that he’s never proven that he can endure a full-year's worth of beating as the No. 1 guy in a backfield.  In college, he was the second option behind Darren McFadden at Arkansas for three years, never carrying the ball more than 154 times in a season.  In the pros, he’s already had a couple of injuries, with a toe injury cutting short his rookie season and a sprained PCL forcing him to miss a couple of games in 2009.  However, when Barber started to break down towards the end of this season, Jones was counted upon to handle more of the touches in the offense.  He responded much better than the ‘Boys could have hoped for... and then there were the playoffs.  Against two tough-nosed defenses in Philly and Minnesota, Felix was given 17 touches/game and produced like a top RB in the league should, scoring one TD and gaining 269 total yards from scrimmage in those two games combined.

Felix has emerged as an obvious choice for the lead-back role of the Cowboys future.  The question is, will he garner enough touches to be able to make a difference on fantasy teams in 2010?  After seeing what he did at the end of the 2009 season, I believe Dallas has no choice but to give Jones his due.  Expect him to break out of his Handcuff status of 2009 and become a starting RB for fantasy teams next year.

Matt Forte

Matt Forte was a clear-cut selection as a No. 1 RB for fantasy teams in 2009 and was a top-5 pick in most fantasy drafts.  What those owners received as a return on their investment over the course of the season was Sunday after Sunday of severe mental distress and in the end, were left with nothing short of a long fantasy off-season highlighted by Beam-and-Cokes and a seven-month head-pounding depression.  There were a number of reasons why this unforeseen fall to 17^th on the fantasy running back rankings occurred, and all of them have the ability to be corrected before next year.

1)     Mike Tice  -  The biggest problem the Bears had this year was along the offensive line.  They were completely inept in ‘09, having not just season-long troubles with opening holes to run through, but also in giving Jay Cutler enough time to find open receivers.  Mike Tice was hired to fix that problem, and fix that problem he will.  He’s one of the best O-line coaches in the business as he tutored 5 different linemen in Minnesota to 10 Pro Bowl appearances.  If anybody can turn the Bears offensive line woes around, it’s Tice, and Forte will benefit greatly from it.

2)     Jay Cutler/Bears WRs  -  Even though Cutler demanded respect from opposing defenses, it didn’t outweigh the lack of respect they had for the Bears wide receivers.  The entire sporting world, minus Bears GM Jerry Angelo, had the Bears receivers ranked in the bottom few teams in the NFL coming into 2009.  However, by the end of the year, a few guys ended up giving Chicago hope for the future at that position, as Devin Hester and rookies Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu turned heads at various points during the season.  Give Jay Cutler a full off-season to gain some rapport with these guys and opposing defenses will have to stop putting 8 in the box against the Bears, thus giving Matt Forte a lot more room to run.

3)     Nagging Injuries  -  Forte played through a slew of injuries in ’09.  From a partially torn hamstring to a sprained MCL, Forte had to tough them all out over the 16 games, and each of his injuries will be completely healed by the time OTAs roll around.  Health makes a huge difference from year to year.

4)     The Numbers  -  The Bears had to play against the hard-nosed defenses of the AFC North in 2009, something they won’t have to do in 2010.  The average ranking of opposing teams Rush Defenses this past year was 11.44, one of the toughest in the NFL.  Next year, that number goes up to 12.81 based on the 2009 stats.  It’s not a huge jump, but it can definitely make a difference when all is said and done.

An off-season to become fully healthy, along with a better offensive line and more cohesiveness in the Bears overall offense, should be all Matt Forte needs to rise back up into the elite fantasy backs in 2010.  He finished in the top-5 back in 2008, and though he may not reach that lofty goal again next year, I fully expect him to rank in the top-10 when ’10 fantasy season ends.

Steve Smith

Everyone figured on Steve Smith finishing in the top-10 in WR fantasy points this year, maybe even in the top-5, so how the hell did he end up down in the 19-slot?!?!  With defenses having to key in on the Panthers awesome rushing attack, Smitty was a sure bet to take advantage of the situation and come away with elite wide receiver numbers in the end.  Not even close.  In fact, Smith finished with less than 1,000 yards in a non-injury plagued season for the first time since 2002.  His 66 catches were also the lowest output since 2002. 

Is this the beginning of the end for the 30-year old, 5’9” beast?  I don’t think so, and I’ll tell you why:

1)     Matt Moore  -  The Panthers may finally be rid of one of the most over-rated QBs in the history of the NFL, Jake Delhomme.  He’ll most likely still be on the team, as the Carolina brass made the mistake of giving him a 5-year deal that runs through 2014, a contract that would be tough to tear up if the collective bargaining agreement talks go well.  However, Jake the Mistake won’t be the starter, and that alone gives Steve Smith more value.  What’s more, though, is that Carolina finally found out what they have in young QB Matt Moore, and what they have is a guy who worked well with Smith down the stretch while leading the Panthers to a 4-1 record down the stretch.

2)     Muhsin Muhammad  -  Steve Smith needs some pressure taken off his shoulders, and he needs it now.  Muhammad is a virtual fossil out there, and the Panthers can’t live with him as their No. 2 WR any longer.  They thought they had his replacement when they drafted Dwayne Jarrett back in ’07, but after just 33 catches and 1 TD in his three-year career, Carolina realizes they need someone better to compliment Smith.  Who that will be, I have no idea at this point, but management knows they need somebody, and they’ll be sure to go out and get him for Smith.

3)     The Running Game  -  Even though the Panthers put out two 1,000-yard rushers this year, they weren’t nearly as dominant as they were in 2008, especially in the early going.  Only 18 TDs (10^th in the NFL) this year compared to 30 in ’08 (1^st) put a lot more pressure on Delhomme and Smith to produce.  A healthy DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in 2010, coupled with the fact that they’ll both be playing for their futures in one form or another next year, will do wonders in opening up space for Steve Smith to use his supreme talent once again.

4)     The Numbers  -  Carolina had it super-tough this year, as the combined record of the teams they faced ended up at 138-118.  That won’t be the case next year as the overall 2009 record of the teams they’ll face in 2010 is 122-134.  That’s a HUGE turnaround from one year to the next.  Another giant number playing out in Smith’s favor next year will be in the average ranking of opposing Pass Defenses.  This year, Smith faced teams with a 16.2 average rank, while next year that number jumps up to a whopping average of 19.63.  Both of these facts should play a big part in bringing Smith’s numbers back up to where they normally would be.

There’s no doubt that Steve Smith is an ultimate talent amongst wide receivers in the NFL, but sometimes there are just too many factors playing against you to overcome them all.  That won’t be a problem for Smith in 2010, and in fact, there are so many determinants playing into his favor next year that I couldn’t imagine him not returning to elite status and finishing in the top-10 in ’10, maybe even the top-5.

Calvin "Megatron" Johnson

How in the world did Calvin Johnson fall from 3^rd in WR fantasy points one year, then all the way down to 23^rd the next?!?!  It was like watching Brady Anderson hit 50 homeruns in 1996 only to fall off to 18 homers the next year around.  Of course, nobody is going to question Megatron on whether or not he used steroids.  That would be ridiculous.  However, with talent like his, it’s tough to make sense of it all, yet there definitely were a bundle of factors playing into his collapse.  When you go into the season as a surefire top-5 player at your position, and then suddenly fall off the face of the fantasy planet, there has to be reasons.  These reasons will be the same reasons ‘Tron returns to the fantasy elite in 2010.

1)     Rookie QB Matthew Stafford  -  Rookie QBs tend to take at least a year or so to fully understand the nuances of the NFL compared to what they did in college, and No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford is no exception.  It takes some time to get on the same page as your receivers, and when you throw into the mix that the Lions were as awful as they were, your finest talents will end up pushing too hard to make an impact and likely cause even more problems.  Give Stafford and Calvin a full off-season to get used to each other and watch how in tune they are with that first season and off-season under their belt.  Stafford’s got a ton of talent, and Johnson will reap the benefits as soon as next year.

2)     Injuries  -  The Lions were decimated by injuries in 2009, from Stafford, to RB Kevin Smith, to multiple offensive linemen, and yes, even Megatron couldn’t escape the bug.  Johnson injured his knee in just the 5^th game of the season and never quite recovered.  He missed a couple games and only played parts of others, but for the most part he gutted it out for the rest of the year.  None of the injuries are serious, however, and he’ll be perfectly healthy for the OTAs and 2010 season.

3)     No WR2  -  The Lions had a ton of weaknesses last year, but one of the most glaring to those that had the stomach to watch their games this year was the lack of a complementary receiver to Calvin.  The two receivers they depended on to take the pressure off ‘Tron were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt, neither of whom I expect to be in the NFL next year.  They combined for 70 catches, 774 yards, and 4 TDs, numbers that would barely pass for a solid WR2 if it was just one player.  The Detroit brass has already made a note of this shortcoming and have made it clear that one of their major off-season goals will be to get a WR who can take the triple-teams off of their biggest asset.

Make no mistake about it, Calvin Johnson will return to the WR fantasy elite in 2010.  His talent alone should be able to accomplish that.  How many receivers out there can say that they stand 6’5”, weigh over 230 pounds, yet run a 4.35 forty?  There’s only a couple that are close; Andre Johnson and Randy Moss, and guess where they ended up on the 2009 WR fantasy points list?  That’s right, Nos. 1 and 2.  Believe it, Megatron will be right back up there on top with them in 2010.

Dwayne Bowe

I can’t say I expected Bowe to be in the top-10, or even top-15 receivers in 2009, but down around the No. 50 mark?  Yeah, sure, he was suspended for 4 games due to the NFL finding a diuretic in his system, and he missed another with a hamstring injury, but 50^th?!?!  Bowe finished his 2007 rookie season in the top-25 and then rose to the top-16 in 2008, so a fall like this could not have been expected by anybody.  The good thing is that this sudden decline had nothing to do with Dwayne Bowe as a wide receiver, which gives me plenty of good reasons to expect him to return to top-20, starting fantasy WR status in 2010.

1)     Charlie Weis  -  The ways in which Weis will be helping QB Matt Cassel move up the fantasy rankings in 2010, the same will apply to the movement upwards for Dwayne Bowe.   His Erhardt-Perkins offensive system is tested to be affective in the growth and polish of QBs, WRs, and even RBs who can catch out of the backfield like Jamaal Charles.  Bowe stands to only get better under the tutelage of new OC Charlie Weis, as does the whole offense around him.

2)     Gel with Cassel  -  Bowe has had four different QBs throwing to him in his three years as a pro, and Matt Cassel is easily the best of them.  Bowe was able to produce with guys like Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen in his first two years, so I expect a full off-season of gelling with Cassel will lead to even better production in 2010, especially once they learn the nuances of Weis’ new system together.

3)     Jamaal Charles  -  Just as the presence of RB Jamaal Charles will help the stats of Cassel, so will they increase the numbers for Bowe.  Larry Johnson became useless last season on the Chiefs, which allowed for defenses to have no problem in double-teaming Bowe on a weekly basis.  Once Johnson was jettisoned and Charles was promoted to the starting tailback last year, the offense started to open up and the double-teams on receivers started to dissipate.  This trend will continue into next year and help Bowe jump back into the upper-class of NFL wide receivers in 2010.

4)     The Numbers  -  The numbers read the same as they do for Cassel:  The overall combined record of the teams Kansas City faced this past year was 132-124, whereas the combined 2009 record of the teams they will face in 2010 is 125-131.  The same goes for opposing Pass Defenses in that the Chiefs faced a 12.13 average ranking in 2009 compared to what will be a 16.38 average ranking of their opponents Pass D’s in 2010.  The numbers don’t lie, so elevated statistics will definitely be easier for Bowe to come across next season than they were this past year.

‘Somewhere Over the Dwaynebow’ simply has too much talent and too many intangibles not to return to the top 15 receivers in 2010.  The implementation of Charlie Weis’ offensive system, an offense that led the Patriots to three Super Bowl wins, and a full off-season of getting all the pieces together on the same page should vault Bowe back up into the fantasy Tops of the league after being one of the worst fantasy Flops in the 2009 season.

Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen finished 10^th in the league in fantasy points for tight ends this year, so you may be asking, “Why is a top-10 finish considered a flop?”  If Usain Bolt all the sudden started coming in 3^rd place in Olympic sprints, you’d consider that a flop, right?  The same thought process applies to Olsen in this case.  When expectations are high and those expectations are undershot by as much as Olsen missed them, that would be a decent definition of a “flop”.  Olsen was predicted by many to turn the Big Four of fantasy tight ends (Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, and Jason Witten) into the Big Five this year, so barely finishing in the top-10 was truly disappointing to fantasy owners.

However, 2010 should bring about the rise of Greg Olsen that everybody expected in 2009, and I’ll tell you why:

1)     Mike Tice  -  The same reasons that saw Matt Forte falter in his 2009 campaign can be looked at as a reason for Olsen’s demise as well.  The offensive line.  Once the Bears coaches saw how bad their O-line was, they realized that one of the only ways to keep Jay Cutler from getting killed was to keep their tight ends in to block much more than they would have liked.  That won’t be the case in 2010 as one of the best O-line coaches in the NFL, Mike Tice, was brought in to stabilize that area of need.  Olsen should be given the freedom to run all the pass-patterns he can handle next year because of this.

2)     Jay Cutler  -  Despite the various struggles and adversity he experienced this past season, make no mistake about it, Jay Cutler is a very good young quarterback, and Greg Olsen knows this.  I expect those two to work extremely hard together in the off-season in order to get thoroughly in sync as they head into the 2010 season.  What’s more, Cutler did well to use his tight ends while in Denver, leading them to averages of 72.5 catches, 957.5 yards, and seven TDs from 2007-2008.  Olsen is far better than any of the TEs Cutler had to work with over those couple of years, so I would think Olsen should be able to put up similar numbers to those, and possibly surpass them.

3)     Talent  -  Olsen is by far one of the most giftedly skilled tight ends in the league, and he’ll only be 25-years old in 2010.  At 6’5” and 255 pounds, all while being able to run a 4.51 forty-yard dash, he becomes a mismatch in pretty much any situation you can imagine.  When running his intermediate routes, Olsen is simply too fast for linebackers to cover with any consistency.  When he stretches the field in his post-patterns, he’s naturally too tall for defensive backs or safeties to handle.  He’s a rare specimen when it comes to his position, and the Bears will do everything they can to exploit his abilities.

You can’t keep a sleeping giant down for long, so I expect the length of Olsen’s slump to be confined to the 2009 season alone.  The prediction of his break into the elite fantasy tight ends of the league may have been held off for a year, but I foresee 2010 as being the year he joins the other big tight end names atop the fantasy heap.

By d-Rx

Just like Bill Walsh, I stumbled upon Jerry Rice, my favorite athlete of all-time, by shear chance. I just happened to be in the right place (in front of a television), at the right time (while Jerry Rice was about to do something memorable). Not to be dramatic, but it's a journey that means a lot to me as a person, and the following Legends piece is meant to shine a light on an amazing man, the best wide receiver to ever play the game, and in many eyes - my own included, the best NFL player ever to live - regardless of position.

Jerry and I crossed paths for the first time during a weekly tradition of watching Monday Night Football with my father. It was against the L.A. Rams and the Niners were my dad's team cause he loved Norte Dame and "Mr. Perfect" Joe Montana. In the pre-game commentary I remember the weird combination of Monday Night announcers they had, it was led by of course, the ultra playboy Frank Gifford (and you wonder why his wife is crazy), O.J. Simpson (no comment), and what appeared to be a drunk and sluring "Broadway Joe" Namath (see our Legends piece of him on this site). What a motley mix in the booth, who ever came up with that trio… it lasted 1 year, as did Namath.

Anyway, these three were talking, about a team that had won the Super Bowl the year before no less, the niners, and all they were talking about the whole time was this rookie wideout from a school I had never heard of (Mississippi Valley State) that the team had such high hopes for, but was sucking it up bigtime - dropping everything and losing the faith of the team. I was like this team are the Champions, why are they talking about some rookie that wasn't there last year when they became champions so much.

The game started, and Joe was stumbling over words, while this disappointing rookie, Jerry Rice put on a crazy display against the Rams secondary. This kid was electrifying, my father and I had never seen anything like it, he was just obviously the most gifted person on the field, it was like he was playing a different speed than the rest of the players on the field. He was much like Chris Johnson is today, video-gameesque. It was one of those ahhh moments in my life, that I have had a hand full in my entire 36 years on Earth. You know, that feeling, when you knew you discovered something that you can just love, cherrish and will be sacred to you forever. Anyway, sorry if I get all whiley niley willy writing this piece… this is moving stuff for yours truly. Rice arrived in that game, ending the game with 10 catches for a then team record 241 yards, with a 66 yard TD. Rice had a handful of enormous plays, including a 52 yard catch that lead to a Roger Craig TD. I had a FLASH 80 jersey within a couple weeks, it was mail order - oye - you internet babies are lucky with your cell phones and world wide web.*

"I call that my coming out game, I went in really relaxed, and when it was over, I knew I could play profession football." - Jerry Rice 

Jerry Rice is the best player I have ever seen play the game of football. There are a select few players that are worthy of consideration as the best player in NFL history, maybe we say there are 10-15 players that are in the discussion. While probably all being varied in the contributions to the game and the things they did to earn consideration as the games best ever. My guess is that if  you asked 100 experts and polled 100 fans from accross the country, who is the Greatest of All-Time? My guess is that Jerry Rice will win be the player that ends up with the most votes. If not, whatever, maybe I give him too much credit, but the guy has changed the game like no one that has ever played during my lifetime. The way Jordan changed the guard position and the fandom that came along with his style of play, the way Jerry did for the prima donna mindset. Rice was the NFL's answer to the Michael Jordan phenomenon. Once Rice arrived, every kid that loved football, wanted to be a wide receiver and chances are, they wanted to be the magnificent Jerry "Flash 80" Rice. 

The next time I got to watch him, was round 1 of the playoffs against the New York Giants. I was really fired up to watch Jerry again, in a playoff atmoshpere, where on cue in the first half, he caught a bomb, had no one in his path to a for sure touchdown. Opps. Wait no, what just happened? Jerry with no ones doing but his own knee - this great hope, in his biggest moment as a professional athlete - fumbled the ball off his knee on his way to a TD, no one touched him… the game was never the same again… the G-Men went on to kill the Niners and win the Super Bowl.

Oye. But I feel that single play turned him into the GOAT. It was that play that turned him from a great player to the best ever.

"He's one of the people that give the game dignity, in a time when that dignity seems to be escaping us." - Bill Walsh, Hall of Fame Coach

I could go on forever on his whole career and promise to do so on the day he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame and he and I both have tears on our face (I cried at Jordan's induction a few months back). This is a great man, and he will always be a big part of Pyromaniac.com. The first character we ever made for the site was Jerry Rice (Larry Fitzgerald the first active player). 

To earn a spot in the NFL Hall of Fame, a player must consistently play at a level above that of his contemporaries.  To call Jerry Rice merely a cut above his peers would be a dramatic understatement.  Jerry Rice is the best wide receiver in NFL history, and his combination of production, consistency, and longevity has never been matched. Jerry Rice was the perfect blend of intelligence, dedication, concentration, and athleticism.  If one word could possibly serve to encompass his game, the only logical choice would be ‘graceful’.   His soft hands seemed to stick to every ball thrown his way.  After the catch, Rice never needed to juke or stutter.  He simply just glided through the sea of flailing defenders, sailing smoothly into the end zone untouched.  At 6’2, he was a good-sized target for a quarterback (tall those days), and his flawless route running always put him in the right place at the right time to catch the football.

Over the next eleven seasons, Rice never once dipped below 1,000 yards, cementing himself as the most consistent receiver to have ever played the game.  Rice and the 49ers won Super Bowls XXIII, XXIV, and XXIX in that span, Rice winning MVP honors in XXIII. In 1997, Rice was brought down with a rough facemask by Tampa Bay’s Warren "QBKilla" Sapp, tearing his ACL and shelving him for nearly the duration of the season.  A premature return resulted in another knee injury and held him out of a Pro Bowl for the first time since his rookie year. In that year, I took Jerry Rice with the first overall pick in our 8 man league. I was devistated, my favorite player, that I was able to get with a unlikely first pick in the draft, down right out of the gates (it was like Brady last year). No way Jose!!! F!!

So I still get into the playoffs, and it's the first round of the playoffs, and I'm playing Stitchface!!! Rice is back, playing in week #15 against the Denver Broncos, he had rehabbed his ass off all season, well documented, he was a crazy over-achiever, hardest working guy imaginable. In one of the most memorable moments in our leagues history (definitely in my fantasy career) Rice scored a touchdown for me, breaking his knee cap in the process. Of course I'm playing Rice when he comes back!! So, I am up by I don't remember how points on my opponent Stitchface, and he has a talented rookie Fred Lane (yeah that Fred Lane - total bullshit!) a guy that had 100 yards and 2 TDs the week before, playing on Monday Night Football. Long story short, Fred Lane had 138 yards in the game and was stopped from the 1 yard line 4 times in a goal line stand by the Dallas Cowboys to give him 0 TDs for the game. Had he scored there, Stitchface is in the Championship game. Instead Nuna's Tuna's go into the big game and win it all!! Holla' for your boy!

Again sorry, just have to get this all off my chest. Rice bounced back in 1998 with another 1,000+ yard season, but his production slowly began to taper as his long career caught up with him.  Rice signed with the Oakland Raiders after the 2000 season, marking the first time that he had played for a team other than the 49ers since 1985.  Rice enjoyed three solid seasons in Oakland, going to another Super Bowl and having a great game with 77 yards and a TD at 40 years old. They lost the game, and he was traded to Seattle midway through the 2004 season, which would be the last of his career.

Rice retired from football after the 2004 season and resurfaced as a dancing machine on ABC’s Dancing With the Stars, ultimately coming in second place.  Rice has also popped up intermittently on a variety of reality shows.  He has co-authored two books, and has a son Jerry Jr., who plays at UCLA as a walk on.

When it was all said and done for Rice, he was easily the most dominant wide receiver the game had ever seen.  His 22,895 career receiving yards is the most in league history, dwarfing second place Tim Brown’s total by over 7,000 yards.  His 208 total TDs (11 rushing) are 33 more than runner-up Emmitt Smith. His 197 career touchdown catches put him 49 touchdowns ahead of second-place Randy Moss and 53 touchdowns ahead of third-turd holding Terrell Owens.  Rice’s 14 1,000+ yard seasons is an astonishing testament to his durability and consistency.  Much like the quarterback who threw to him for many of the best years of Rice’s career, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice didn’t have the assets to dominate the game on a physical level.  Instead, he relied upon his own consistent approach and knowledge of the game to play the game the way it was meant to be played.  Rice wasn’t a prototype player, a project, or a raw athlete.  Rather he was likely the most refined player that the game had ever seen.

*I had to be home to get the call where the party was in order to hang out with my friends. Sucked. Wish I had a mobile phone, facebook page and 3 email addresses at age 7 like my nephews do.

Go Long!: My Journey Beyond the Game and the Fame

      CJ28 vs AP28 thru their first 31 games in the NFL

From:  Alex Turner, Yuma, Arizona

Question:
I realize it's a bit early for a projection like this, but who do you guys think should be the #1 pick in the 2010 fantasy draft, Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson?  I know AP had a bit of an off-year, but I expect him to bounce back strong next season.  What are your thoughts?  Thanks in advance.

Pyro Answer:
First off, thank you for your question.  We love talking fantasy over here at Pyro headquarters, no matter what time of the year it is.
Second, it's NEVER too early to dive into all the ins and outs of next year's draft, and this is the perfect question to start off all the speculation.

You really can't go wrong taking either one of these guys, but there are a bunch of question marks to consider:

1)  Rules of your League
- If you play in a PPR league, the edge would go to Chris Johnson.  AP is gaining ground in the receptions category, but with the Vikings likely to re-sign Chester Taylor, or even place a transition/franchise tag on him, I can't see Peterson's receptions going more than a few over the 43 he had in 2009.
- If you play in a league that rewards long TDs, again, the edge would go to CJ28.  It's not that Peterson can't rattle off a long one here and there, but it's not nearly as sure of a thing as Johnson doing it.
- If you play in a yardage league where all TDs are equal, the edge goes to AP.  He seems to have gained a nose for the endzone, and with Johnson's yards likely to come down and Peterson's likely to go up, the TDs would put AP slightly over the top.

EDGE: Chris Johnson (slight)   

2)  Offensive Line
- The Vikings had two O-Linemen elected to the Pro Bowl in 2009 (OG Steve Hutchinson, OT Bryant McKinnie) compared to the Titans one (C Kevin Mawae), but don't let the numbers fool you.  Tennessee has one of the best offensive lines in the league, if not THE best, while Minnesota's line is overrated at the very least.  The one thing the Vikings have on the Titans in this area is Free Agency.  The entire Vikings line is under contract for at least 2010, while two of the Titans starters, C Kevin Mawae and G Eugene Amano, will be looking for new contracts this off-season.  The even bigger problem is that the Titans have a more-than-normal load of free agents to satisfy this off-season, so one of the two is likely to go.  Mawae is a great leader, but he's also 39 years old.  He could land a one-year contract, but it would be at the expense of the much younger, and close to equally-capable, Amano.  Luckily, the Titans have another good young lineman waiting in the wings named Leroy Harris.  Whichever one goes, Harris can simply be plugged in his place.  The Titans have the slight edge here as well.

EDGE: Chris Johnson (slight)   

3)  Quarterback
- When Brett Favre entered the scene, everyone thought he'd simply be the threat that kept defenses from stacking the box against AP, yet continue to let Peterson run the show.  Not...  Even...  Close...  Bud.  In fact, 2009 saw Peterson's touches drop from 384 in 2008 to 357 in 2009, even though the Vikings were playing with the lead for much of the season.  On the other hand, as far as Vince Young is concerned, Chris Johnson played way better with Vinsanity at the helm as opposed to when Kerry Collins ran the show.  Johnson averaged 120.3 total yards (99.3 rushing, 21.0 receiving) on 18.5 touches per game while Collins was the QB, compared to 178.7 total yards (141.0 rushing, 37.7 receiving) on 29.7 touches per game with Young under center.  Pretty huge difference there.  Now the big questions are, will Brett Favre return to play out the final year of his contract, and will the Titans continue to go with VY in 2010?  The first one is a question I won't come close to addressing until the summer, but whether Favre comes back or not, I expect Peterson's touches to be right around those of Chris Johnson's this next year.  The second one is a resounding Yes, the Titans will most definitely be going with Vinsanity in 2010.  Plain and simply, the guy is a winner, no matter how he looks doing it.  In the end, with the numbers CJ28 put up with Young as the quarterback, I'd have to give the slight edge to Johnson again.

EDGE: Chris Johnson      

4)  Patience
- From what I can tell, Chris Johnson is one of the more patient young backs in the league.  When going to the outside, he follows his blockers at all costs, and then turns on the jets at the absolute optimal time after the play has fully developed.  Even on inside runs, Johnson seems to wait for his line to get to their proper spots before charging into contact.  However, AP is a completely different story.  In fact, it’s been said that the senior and most effective lineman on the Vikings line, Steve Hutchinson, has been begging Peterson for the past two years to be more patient and to follow his blocks.  Hutch said that AP has been relying on his all-world talent way too heavily instead of letting the play develop the way it should, and as a result, the league has caught up to his smash-through-the-play tendencies.  That being said, I expect the coaches to work extensively with him on that this off-season, along with his much maligned propensity to fumble the ball.  Again, the edge goes to Chris Johnson here.

EDGE: Chris Johnson      

5)  Anger/Determination
- When AP came out of college as a junior in 2007, the word around draft circles was that he was 'injury-prone' and at least two teams acknowledged that his health was definitely a consideration in how they went about their draft analysis of him.  Was it warranted?  Maybe, maybe not, but the real telltale is how AP reacted to it...  "I'm a player who is coming in with the determination to turn a team around. I want to help my team get to the playoffs, win… and run wild. I want to bring people to the stands. I want people to come to the game to see what I can do next. Things like that can change the whole attitude of an organization. I want to win." (Robinson, Jon (2007-05-04) "Adrian Peterson Interview". IGN. http://sports.ign.com/articles/785/785800p1.html.)  Basically, Purple Jesus is at his best when faced with a challenge, when standing toe-to-toe with adversity, and plenty of people are questioning AP right now.  From his fumbling problem to his lack of 100-yard games this past year, from his own coaches using backup Chester Taylor and Old Man Favre in pressure situations to his own linemen questioning his ability to follow instructions, Adrian Peterson will certainly be facing a telltale year in 2010.  Our bet's on Purple Jesus rising to the challenge.

EDGE: Adrian Peterson      

Of course, it's only February, and we have a full off-season ahead of us to see where these two fantasy overlords end up in their pursuit for #1.  All the early factors indicate that CJ28 should be the first name fired out of owners mouths come August, but I guarantee you, Purple Jesus will have something to say about that over the next six months, so sit tight fantasy lovers.  There's a lot of time to figure out which lion will end up ruling the pride.

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