GET HIM A BODY BAG JOHNNY! - WEEK 13
Tenny Stegman (22-13-1 on the season)
Rams +9.5 @ Chicago
Rams are playing better football, and the Bears defense is in shambles. The latest loss is Lance Briggs, so that should add about a yard onto Sjax’s YPC this week and give the Rams the ability to keep this one close. Jay Cutler’s confidence is at an all-time low, and while the Rams defense should give him the confidence he is looking for, I am not sure that the Bears should be laying 9.5 points vs. any team in the league except maybe Detroit.
San Francisco +1 @ Seattle
This spread is idiotic in my opinion – the Niners should be laying 4 not getting 1. The Seahawks are awful. The Niners are the best 5-6 team in the league with tight/close road losses to the Colts, Texans, Vikings, and Packers, and then two home loss stunners vs. the Falcons and Titans that I can’t explain away. If you want me to go thru the Seahawks schedule, it’s pretty simple, they have 4 wins and those are against the Rams x 2, Detroit, and the Jaguars, and most of their losses have been blowouts except vs. Chicago in week 3. Niners are tough on the road, and tough ATS. Book it.
Green Bay -3 home vs. the Ravens
There are injuries on both defenses – Ravens will not have Suggs, and the Pack lost Kampann and Harris for the year. The Ravens’ problem is that Flacco has absolutely no one to throw to – his cannon arm is being wasted. Mason is good, but he is a possession guy, and doesn’t do much to break open the big play –Mary Clayton blows dog - literally. The Packers offense is firing on all cylinders and they are tough as nails in Lambeau. Lay the field goal.
d-Rx (19-17 on the season)
New England -5 @ Miami Dolphins
Ok, Ok, I admit it - I love Tom Brady, I love Randy Moss even more, and Wes Welker has been on my fantasy team since he was on the Miami Dolphins. I'm over thinking they will win a Championship, but if Indy has a shot, then so does NE. Win out their games and they have a first round bye... this game the tides turn and they score more points than they have been lately. The passing attack hasn't been what it should be, this trio is one of the best the NFL has ever had, like top 5. The defense blows harder than that new bladeless Dyson Air Multiplier fan (super dope!). Everyone is scoring on them. Let's see if Mayo and BB can pull it together. Why didn't this team go for Dawkins, big mistake? They need a big offseason on defense to get back to 1997 form, regardless the Patriots are gonna have the Land Shark in their eyes.
San Francisco 49ers +1 @ Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers are alive, barely... but as you saw with the Cardinals last season, a team can get hot down the stretch and make a mark. Personally, I thought this team would be much better this season than they have been. The Seahawks either win big or get killed this season, and they have always lost 2 games after a win. They beat the Rams last week (their other 2 wins are against the Jags & Lions) so I figure its time for a 2 game slide. With the 9ers getting a point, I take this bet. Not a game I would want to watch, but one I feel confident putting my money on. Come on Samurai Mike, let's do this!
Denver Broncos -4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs
The spread on Chiefs games the last two weeks has been +13 (SD) and +11 (Pitt), so to see KC face a team with a better record than both of those previous opponents be at a +4.5, it makes me think Vegas is in a mode of wishful thinking. Wishful that the Chiefs are better than they really are, or that Kyle Orton and the Broncos peaked and are heading the opposite direction. I still like the Pony's, and like a pimple on class picture day, you don't want anything to do with the Denver defense. This hyper-competitive rivalry will bring the best out of the Denver team on both sides of the ball, a bad sign for the Chiefs even if they are getting four and a half points.
the Rain Man (19-16-1 on the season)
Bears -9.5 home vs. St. Louis
The Rams have scored 24 points on the road this season. Kyle Boller will be starting at quarterback. In his previous three starts, Boller has committed four turnovers that have led to defensive touchdowns. The Rams can't make adjustments, evidenced by the fact they have scored just 6 points in the third quarter all season. The Bears should run away with this one.
Ravens +3 @ Green Bay
Three points is too much to give to a Ravens team, that has only lost two games by more than three points this season. The teams they have lost to this season are all much better than the Packers. All five of the Ravens losses have been to teams in first place in their division. The teams they have lost to have a combined 36-8 record. Baltimore should win this game. If they lose, it won't be by more than three points.
New England -5 @ Miami
The Patriots have only lost back to back games once since the start of the 2003 season. Over their last 10 losses, the Patriots have come back to outscore teams by an average of 19.1 points per game the following week. Take the Pats this weekend.
Uncle D (24-12 on the season)
New England -5 (@ Miami)
Wait a second, am I reading this number correctly? Five points?! All I have to give up is five points if I take the Patriots? This is the same Miami team that just got their asses handed to them by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Bills, right? The same Miami that barely beat Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago in Miami, right? The same Dolphins that recently lost their main cog (Ronnie Brown) in the offense they've been running all year, right? Tom Brady and Bill Belichick just got royally embarrassed on National TV last week. The last time that happened (against the Colts in Week 10), they came out the following week and gave another inner-division rival, the New York Jets, the ol' Chris Brown treatment. I expect the same thing to happen this time around.
New Orleans -9.5 (@ Washington)
This is a risky risky pick, but that's kinda why this is called "gambling", right? The Saints are coming off of a win against the Patriots last Monday night that likely left them emotionally spent, but I'm going to take my chances here in saying that coach Sean Payton won't let his team endure a psychological letdown. If they want to go undefeated and keep home-field advantage over Minnesota throughout the playoffs, they can't let their guard down even once, especially against a crapass team like the Redskins. One thing that has me slightly nervous about this pick, however, is that even though Washington is only 3-8, their average margin of loss is by only 6.25 points with 7 of the 8 being by 10 points or less. They're also 3-2 at home. Ahhh screw it, these are the Saints we're talking about here!
Carolina -6.5 (Home vs. Tampa Bay)
If DeAngelo Williams doesn't play in this game, I might have my work cut out for me to cover these points, but I believe he'll sack up and give it a go. Either way, Jonathan Stewart is a beast who should have no trouble handling the piddly Bucs on his own. In their first meeting of the season, DeAngelo went off for 152 yards and 2 TDs while Stewart smashed out 110 yards and a TD of his own. The Bucs rush D hasn't gotten any better since then (still 30th in the league), so I'll expect more of the same out of those two. Sure, some people will be worried about Jake Delhomme being out and resident PoDunk Matt Moore taking over, but what most people don't realize is that Moore actually throws a pretty good deep ball... and really, could he be any worse than Delhomme was anyway?
Stitchface (15-12 on the season)
The only thing hotter than my 13-5 streak over the last six weeks is my 102 fever I’m sportin’ while I write this. No excuses, no sympathy, no pain-no gain, touchable catchable baby. We all gotta eat and baby needs a new pair of shoes, so if you’ve got the “Stitchface Streak Fever” too, dial up the bookie! NOTHING is more important than The Streak, it’s a matter of life and death. So excuse my briefness this week. GET ME A BODY BAG JOHNNY!!!!!!!!
San Francisco 49ers +1 @ Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers have a great shot at winning this game outright. News out of Seattle is that the young good looking back Justin Forsett injured his quad in practice and they are looking at Julius Jones to carry the load. Matt Hasselbeck is really struggling this year throwing 11 TD’s in 9 games. Seven of those came in two games, so he has four TD’s in the remaining 7 games. He put up a measly 95 yards last week in the dome at St. Louis. Not good. San Fran’s pass defense is 28th in the league but they have only allowed 11 strikes to the end zone. Their rush D is tight, so I expect Seattle to find all sorts of struggles on Sunday. Give me the pills- I mean, points SUCKA!!!
Houston Texans +1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has really struggled defending the pass, ranking 26th in the league in yards and 24th in passing tuddies at 19 on the year. This is essentially an elimination game for Houston and they had high hopes this season. They are a better team than their record and I think they find a way to win this one outright. They will be fighting like its D-Day in the balmy Florida December weather, and I like the vertical passing game for Houston to carry the day. Give me the points SUCKA!!!
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
If you have following along, you know how I feel about Baltimore. This is not the same smash mouth team you have been watching for a decade. They are relying heavy on Ray Rice and Joe Flacco to get it done. To make matters worse for Baltimore, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs did not participate in practice all week. Reed did not participate last week and he suited up against Pittsburgh, but he is clearly a different player with the ankle injury. Suggs is likely out for the game, and he is their best defender. Green Bay has been on a roll since their embarrassing loss to Tampa. Take those points and shove ‘em!!!
