CJ28 vs AP28 thru their first 31 games in the NFL

From:  Alex Turner, Yuma, Arizona

Question:
I realize it's a bit early for a projection like this, but who do you guys think should be the #1 pick in the 2010 fantasy draft, Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson?  I know AP had a bit of an off-year, but I expect him to bounce back strong next season.  What are your thoughts?  Thanks in advance.

Pyro Answer:
First off, thank you for your question.  We love talking fantasy over here at Pyro headquarters, no matter what time of the year it is.
Second, it's NEVER too early to dive into all the ins and outs of next year's draft, and this is the perfect question to start off all the speculation.

You really can't go wrong taking either one of these guys, but there are a bunch of question marks to consider:

1)  Rules of your League
- If you play in a PPR league, the edge would go to Chris Johnson.  AP is gaining ground in the receptions category, but with the Vikings likely to re-sign Chester Taylor, or even place a transition/franchise tag on him, I can't see Peterson's receptions going more than a few over the 43 he had in 2009.
- If you play in a league that rewards long TDs, again, the edge would go to CJ28.  It's not that Peterson can't rattle off a long one here and there, but it's not nearly as sure of a thing as Johnson doing it.
- If you play in a yardage league where all TDs are equal, the edge goes to AP.  He seems to have gained a nose for the endzone, and with Johnson's yards likely to come down and Peterson's likely to go up, the TDs would put AP slightly over the top.

EDGE: Chris Johnson (slight)   

2)  Offensive Line
- The Vikings had two O-Linemen elected to the Pro Bowl in 2009 (OG Steve Hutchinson, OT Bryant McKinnie) compared to the Titans one (C Kevin Mawae), but don't let the numbers fool you.  Tennessee has one of the best offensive lines in the league, if not THE best, while Minnesota's line is overrated at the very least.  The one thing the Vikings have on the Titans in this area is Free Agency.  The entire Vikings line is under contract for at least 2010, while two of the Titans starters, C Kevin Mawae and G Eugene Amano, will be looking for new contracts this off-season.  The even bigger problem is that the Titans have a more-than-normal load of free agents to satisfy this off-season, so one of the two is likely to go.  Mawae is a great leader, but he's also 39 years old.  He could land a one-year contract, but it would be at the expense of the much younger, and close to equally-capable, Amano.  Luckily, the Titans have another good young lineman waiting in the wings named Leroy Harris.  Whichever one goes, Harris can simply be plugged in his place.  The Titans have the slight edge here as well.

EDGE: Chris Johnson (slight)   

3)  Quarterback
- When Brett Favre entered the scene, everyone thought he'd simply be the threat that kept defenses from stacking the box against AP, yet continue to let Peterson run the show.  Not...  Even...  Close...  Bud.  In fact, 2009 saw Peterson's touches drop from 384 in 2008 to 357 in 2009, even though the Vikings were playing with the lead for much of the season.  On the other hand, as far as Vince Young is concerned, Chris Johnson played way better with Vinsanity at the helm as opposed to when Kerry Collins ran the show.  Johnson averaged 120.3 total yards (99.3 rushing, 21.0 receiving) on 18.5 touches per game while Collins was the QB, compared to 178.7 total yards (141.0 rushing, 37.7 receiving) on 29.7 touches per game with Young under center.  Pretty huge difference there.  Now the big questions are, will Brett Favre return to play out the final year of his contract, and will the Titans continue to go with VY in 2010?  The first one is a question I won't come close to addressing until the summer, but whether Favre comes back or not, I expect Peterson's touches to be right around those of Chris Johnson's this next year.  The second one is a resounding Yes, the Titans will most definitely be going with Vinsanity in 2010.  Plain and simply, the guy is a winner, no matter how he looks doing it.  In the end, with the numbers CJ28 put up with Young as the quarterback, I'd have to give the slight edge to Johnson again.

EDGE: Chris Johnson      

4)  Patience
- From what I can tell, Chris Johnson is one of the more patient young backs in the league.  When going to the outside, he follows his blockers at all costs, and then turns on the jets at the absolute optimal time after the play has fully developed.  Even on inside runs, Johnson seems to wait for his line to get to their proper spots before charging into contact.  However, AP is a completely different story.  In fact, it’s been said that the senior and most effective lineman on the Vikings line, Steve Hutchinson, has been begging Peterson for the past two years to be more patient and to follow his blocks.  Hutch said that AP has been relying on his all-world talent way too heavily instead of letting the play develop the way it should, and as a result, the league has caught up to his smash-through-the-play tendencies.  That being said, I expect the coaches to work extensively with him on that this off-season, along with his much maligned propensity to fumble the ball.  Again, the edge goes to Chris Johnson here.

EDGE: Chris Johnson      

5)  Anger/Determination
- When AP came out of college as a junior in 2007, the word around draft circles was that he was 'injury-prone' and at least two teams acknowledged that his health was definitely a consideration in how they went about their draft analysis of him.  Was it warranted?  Maybe, maybe not, but the real telltale is how AP reacted to it...  "I'm a player who is coming in with the determination to turn a team around. I want to help my team get to the playoffs, win… and run wild. I want to bring people to the stands. I want people to come to the game to see what I can do next. Things like that can change the whole attitude of an organization. I want to win." (Robinson, Jon (2007-05-04) "Adrian Peterson Interview". IGN. http://sports.ign.com/articles/785/785800p1.html.)  Basically, Purple Jesus is at his best when faced with a challenge, when standing toe-to-toe with adversity, and plenty of people are questioning AP right now.  From his fumbling problem to his lack of 100-yard games this past year, from his own coaches using backup Chester Taylor and Old Man Favre in pressure situations to his own linemen questioning his ability to follow instructions, Adrian Peterson will certainly be facing a telltale year in 2010.  Our bet's on Purple Jesus rising to the challenge.

EDGE: Adrian Peterson      

Of course, it's only February, and we have a full off-season ahead of us to see where these two fantasy overlords end up in their pursuit for #1.  All the early factors indicate that CJ28 should be the first name fired out of owners mouths come August, but I guarantee you, Purple Jesus will have something to say about that over the next six months, so sit tight fantasy lovers.  There's a lot of time to figure out which lion will end up ruling the pride.

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