2012 Pre-Season Fantasy Football TE Rankings-  07/30/12

 

 

 

Dawgmatica’s 2012 Pre-Season Fantasy TE Player Rankings

 

 

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1.       Jimmy Graham (NO) – Here’s a little-known fact for ya:  Jimmy Graham is one of only seven players in NFL history to have four or more receptions in all 16 games during a season (Jason Witten, ’09; Marvin Harrison, ’02; Jimmy Smith, ’01; Cris Carter, ’95; Herman Moore, ’95; Sterling Sharpe, ’93). Now here are the reasons I’m putting him above Rob Gronkowski (and Antonio Gates). First off, with WR Brandon Lloyd now starting in New England, I expect Gronk’s targets to eaten into a bit. He’ll still be a dominating force, but I also expect a little more running from Stevan Ridley and a little more involvement from Aaron Hernandez. In New Orleans, with Robert Meachem gone to San Diego, I expect Graham to be used even MORE this season—and that’s after being the clear favorite of Drew Brees in 2011 (Graham led all tight ends with 149 targets in ’11). Graham’s athleticism and size are already off the charts for the position, and it looks like he’s only getting better.

2.       Rob Gronkowski (NE) – It’s not a fantasy stat, but Rob Gronkowski is probably the toughest guy in the league to bring down once he gets the ball in his hands. Simply put—he’s a Monster. The year he had last season was one of the greatest single-seasons at ANY position ever seen in the NFL, as Gronk set records for both TDs (17 - four more TDs than the previous record) and yards by a tight end (1,327 yards – he and Jimmy Graham (1,310) are the only two ever to surpass the 1,300-yard mark). He’ll come up short of those numbers in 2012, but he’ll still put up enough to dominate the position and warrant an early-round draft pick.

3.       Antonio Gates (SD) – By all accounts (including his own), Antonio Gates is in the best shape he’s been in for quite some time and looks leaner /quicker than he has in years. If any of the observations are true, Gates could legitimately vie for the fantasy crown at the tight end position this year. When healthy and on top of his game, he’s without a doubt on par with both Graham and Gronkowski and is in just as good of a situation to dominate fantasy-wise. Gates has always been a favorite target of Philip Rivers, but now that Vincent Jackson is gone, you can bet Gates will see some serious love come his way this season. Add in that RB Ryan Mathews will not only force defenses closer to the line, but that he’ll make the play-action pass a go-to play for Rivers/Gates and you’re looking at 2010-like domination here for Antonio. If you’re not up for grabbing either Graham or Gronk early on in the draft (like a lot of fantasy owners will), wait a couple of extra rounds for the third elite “G” and reap the rewards without having to spend a first- or second-round pick.

4.       Aaron Hernandez (NE) – They worked on it a bunch in 2011, but this season, the Patriots are going to do everything in their power to make Aaron Hernandez into the Percy Harvin of NFL tight ends. His 79 catches and seven receiving TDs from a year ago will likely stay around the same, but I fully expect his five rushes for 45 yards to multiply into about 25 for 150 yards or so with maybe a third of those carries coming in the Red Zone. Basically, double-digit TDs are within his reach, a number not often seen by the tight end position. With New England primed to be one of the top 2-3 explosive offenses yet again in 2012, you really can’t go wrong with a guy as versatile as Hernandez (a quality Coach Bill Belichick happens to love in his players).

5.       Fred Davis (Was) – When Fred Davis left the field after 12 games last season to honor his four-game suspension, he was fifth in the league in tight end fantasy points per game…right behind the four guys I have listed above him. This season, he’ll have a couple of added bonuses to boost his fantasy value. First, as we all know, the Redskins will be employing a rookie QB to start the season. In their first year of play, quarterbacks tend to check down to their safety-valve (usually the tight end) quite a bit for fear of turning the ball over going deep. Maybe Robert Griffin III will end up different in this way, but even Cam Newton combined to target TEs Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey a whopping 151 times last year (Graham had 149 targets, Gronk had 124). Second, Davis will have something to prove this season not only due to his failed drug test-induced suspension, but also monetarily as he’ll be playing this season under the franchise tag and could earn a good chunk of dough if he proves himself worthy. Besides those two points, he’s one of the fastest tight ends in the league and an overall athletic beast, so if you’re looking for a breakout tight end you can find a little later in the draft, Fred is your guy.

6.       Jermichael Finley (GB) – Finley is going to bust out one of these years, and 2012 looks like it could be the one. The Packers will have one of the Top-3 passing games in the NFL yet again this season (along with the Patriots and Saints) but the thing that intrigues me the most here is the possibility that Green Bay may actually run the ball some as well. If James Starks can come into his own in this, his third season, then Finley should be the pass-catcher who benefits the most. With his supreme athleticism, linebackers can barely guard him as is, but if Starks (or Alex Green for that matter) suddenly poses a threat as a rusher, then Finley will have all the room in the world over the middle to do what he does best—make big plays. There’s no guarantee here that Finley finally joins the elite class of tight ends, but his upside is definitely higher than most others around the league.

7.       Jason Witten (Dal) – When it comes to fantasy tight ends, Jason Witten is about as solid, yet predictably unspectacular as it gets.  He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season in 2003 and hasn’t caught less than 79 balls since 2006, yet rarely scores more than 5-6 touchdowns and averages only two 100-yard games a year. DeMarco Murray’s presence in the backfield may open things up over the middle for him a bit, but not enough to think he’ll do much better than a mid/low-level TE1. He’s dependable, if that’s what you’re looking for or happen to need at the position, but understand that consistency/stability is all you’re going to get from him.

8.       Vernon Davis (SF) – I really love Vernon Davis’ game and believe he’s a Top-3 talent at the position, but he’s simply on the wrong team for fantasy purposes this year. San Francisco has done everything they can to upgrade their offense and by all accounts, I believe they have…which is exactly why Vernon’s fantasy value is this low. He’ll have his fair share of good/great games in 2012, but with the amount of mouths to feed at this point, I’d hardly depend on him as a weekly scorer for your fantasy team. Those big games, however, could be all you need to excel at the tight end position, so he’s still a Top-10 player here.

9.       Tony Gonzalez (Atl) – One more year, eh? Honestly, I’ve loved watching you play for years, Gonzo, so go ahead and keep putting off retirement until you’re good and ready to go. The Hall of Fame will be there when you hang ‘em up. Tony G may not be the same 1,000-yard/10-TD tight end we used to see in his prime, but at 36 years of age, he’s still better than 80-percent of the league. Atlanta will be turning to the pass more often this season, so Gonzo still has the potential to be a top-of-the-line tight end, but with Julio Jones and Roddy White starting on the outside, it’ll be hard to get Matt Ryan’s attention most of the time. Analysis aside, Tony’s consistency and ability to stay on the field (only TWO missed games in his 15-year career) should make him a steal when you finally grab him later on in your draft.

10.   Kyle Rudolph (Min) – Along with Fred Davis, this is my second of three calls this season for “breakout tight end you can probably get later on in your draft”. His 2011 rookie season was a little sporadic as he made a few highlight-reel catches along the way, but never quite had a “breakout performance”. One of the reasons is that he was still dealing with a hamstring injury he suffered in college, thus hampering his awesome athleticism throughout the year. The second is that the Vikings were in a bit of a transitional year and couldn’t quite get to therir starting QB of the future (Christian Ponder) until later on in the season. Being on the same page as your QB is a lot more important than you may think and now, after a full offseason of getting to know each other, Rudolph and Ponder are finally clicking like a dynamic duo for years to come. Look for the 6’6” kid out of Notre Dame to be a high-volume target this season and make sure you watch him as often as you can because those sticky hands of his truly are of the “Holy $#!+” variety.

 

 

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The Next 40...

11.   Brent Celek (Phi)

12.   Jacob Tamme (Den)

13.   Jermaine Gresham (Cin)

14.   Jared Cook (Ten)

15.   Brandon Pettigrew (Det)

16.   Rob Housler (Ari)

17.   Martellus Bennett (NYG)

18.   Greg Olsen (Car)

19.   Dustin Keller (NYJ)

20.   Owen Daniels (Hou)

21.   Coby Fleener (Ind)

22.   Heath Miller (Pit)

 

 

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23.   Kellen Davis (Chi)

24.   Ed Dickson (Bal)

25.   Tony Moeaki (KC)

26.   Dwayne Allen (Ind)

27.   Lance Kendricks (StL)

28.   Dallas Clark (TB)

29.   Scott Chandler (Buf)

30.   Kellen Winslow Jr. (Sea)

31.   Marcedes Lewis (Jax)

32.   Joel Dreessen (Den)

33.   Dennis Pitta (Bal)

34.   Gary Barnidge (Car)

35.   Tony Scheffler (Det)

36.   Ben Watson (Cle)

 

 

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37.   Anthony Fasano (Mia)

38.   Kevin Boss (KC)

39.   Chris Cooley (Was)

40.   Michael Egnew (Mia)

41.   Todd Heap (Ari)

42.   Jordan Cameron (Cle)

43.   Luke Stocker (TB)

44.   David Thomas (NO)

45.   Orson Charles (Cin)

46.   Ladarius Green (SD)

47.   Visanthe Shiancoe (NE)

48.   Evan Moore (Cle)

49.   Delanie Walker (SF)

50.   Brandon Myers (Oak)

 

 

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- 07/30/12