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Pyro pioneered the Targets, Touches and Looks piece back in 2010

2016 Year End Targets, Touches & Looks

Posted by d-Rx on 03/02/17

Targets, Touches & Looks for QBs

 

If you took the Top 10 quarterbacks from 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Matt Ryan

0.61

2

Aaron Rodgers

0.56

2

Dak Prescott

0.56

4

Marcus Mariota

0.51

5

Andrew Luck

0.50

5

Tyrod Taylor

0.50

7

Drew Brees

0.48

8

Kirk Cousins

0.47

9

Matthew Stafford

0.44

10

Andy Dalton

0.43

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, 30 QBs would qualify, and only 8 of these QBs registered at least 40 Looks per Game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Drew Brees

1151

43.50

0.48

2

 Joe Flacco

1111

43.44

0.34

3

 Blake Bortles

1111

42.69

0.38

4

 Aaron Rodgers

1066

42.31

0.56

5

 Carson Wentz

1127

40.81

0.32

6

 Carson Palmer

1045

40.80

0.39

7

 Andrew Luck

1013

40.60

0.50 

8

 Kirk Cousins

1063

40.00

0.47 

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 QBs was 0.43. Carson Palmer’s 0.39 FP/Look, Blake Bortles’ 0.38 FP/Look, Joe Flacco’s 0.34 FP/Look, and Carson Wentz’s 0.32 FP/Looks ranked in the bottom third among the 30 “eligible” QBs. On the other end of the 40+ Looks/G spectrum, Drew Brees led with 43.50 Looks/G; with Joe Flacco’s 43.44 very close behind. 


While Brees’ and Flacco’s Looks/G were very similar, their FP/Look output was not. 16 of the 30 QBs separated Brees (0.48 FP/Look) and Flacco (0.34 FP/Look). Brees didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked only 9th in FP/Look among the 30 QBs. At the top stood Aaron Rodgers’, Dak Prescott’s, and Tom Brady’s 0.56 FP/Look; but most notably, Matt Ryan’s 0.61 FP/Look. Rodgers stands out because he managed to achieve 0.56 FP/Look after accumulating 677 Looks; 108 more than the next guy (Matt Ryan)! Although, do not overlook that each of these 4 QBs ranked among the Top 5 in Comp % among the 30 QBs; each behind Sam Bradford’s 71.56 % (and his 0.39 FP/Look).


The most efficient or highest scoring QBs won’t always be the ones with the most looks, pass attempts, completions, yards, or even touchdowns. What stands out is that the most efficient and highest scoring QBs are those who can A) take snaps on the football field, and B) not throw interceptions. 7 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the bottom half of the 30 QBs who logged at least 500 snaps. For those 3 QBs who went a little interception-heavy, maintaining a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio kind of helped.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

9 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the Top 15 in rushing touchdowns among all QBs. The only QB that failed to score a rushing touchdown was the 2016 NFL MVP himself, Matt Ryan.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for QBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for RBs

 

If you took the Top 10 running backs from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

LeSean McCoy

0.84

2

Ezekiel Elliott

0.81

3

David Johnson

0.79

3

Devonta Freeman

0.79

5

LeGarrette Blount

0.74

6

Mark Ingram

0.73

7

Le’Veon Bell

0.68

8

Jordan Howard

0.67

8

Melvin Gordon

0.67

10

DeMarco Murray

0.66

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, only 23 RBs would qualify, and just 8 of these RBs registered at least 20 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

LeVeon Bell

781

29.58

0.68

2

David Johnson

964

25.81

0.79

3

Ezekiel Elliott

716

24.13

0.81

4

Melvin Gordon

659

23.92

0.67

5

DeMarco Murray

861

22.50

0.66

6

Lamar Miller

623

21.93

0.52

7

Todd Gurley

742

21.00

0.46

8

Jordan Howard

654

20.13

0.67

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 RBs was 0.66, yet only 2 of them failed to meet the average. Lamar Miller’s 0.52 FP/Look and Todd Gurley’s 0.46 FP/Look ranked 20th and 22nd respectively among the 23 “qualified” RBs. On the other end of the 20+ Looks/G spectrum, Le’Veon Bell dominated with 29.58 Looks/G; 3.77 Looks more than David Johnson who finished second.


It was Johnson though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 0.79 FP/Look to Bell’s 0.68. Johnson didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 3rd in FP/Look among the 23 RBs, behind Ezekiel Elliott’s 0.81 and LeSean McCoy’s 0.84. McCoy stands out because he managed to lead in FP/Look after ranking only 13th in looks, 10th in looks per game, 9th in snaps, and 15th in looks per snap among the 23 RBs with over 500 snaps. Elliott, on the other hand, finished 2nd in FP/Look after finishing 2nd in looks, 3rd in looks per game, 5th in snaps, and 3rd in looks per snap among the same field.


One way or another, while a high volume of looks will generate attractive RB numbers, it’s not a sustainable approach. Picking out RBs, especially those receiving looks behind an above average offensive line, who will make the most use out of their looks to score points, will yield the greatest results.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

36 RBs registered 150 or more looks in 2016, but only one these 36 managed to score at least 1 fantasy point per look. His name is Tevin Coleman.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for RBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for WRs

 

If you took the Top 10 wide receivers from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Davante Adams

1.40

2

Brandin Cooks

1.37

2

Jordy Nelson

1.37

2

Julio Jones

1.37

5

Michael Thomas

1.35

6

Antonio Brown

1.28

7

Doug Baldwin

1.21

8

Mike Evans

1.19

9

T.Y. Hilton

1.17

10

Odell Beckham Jr.

1.15

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 61 WRs would qualify, and nearly 25% of these WRs registered at least 9 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Julian Edelman

876

10.75

0.76

2

 Mike Evans

950

10.69

1.19

3

 Odell Beckham Jr.

1002

10.63

1.15

4

 Antonio Brown

975

10.47

1.28

5

 T.Y. Hilton

949

9.69

1.17

6

 Jordy Nelson

1015

9.50

1.37

7

 Larry Fitzgerald

1052

9.50

0.90

8

 DeAndre Hopkins

1085

9.44

0.79

9

 Allen Robinson

1047

9.38

0.83

10

 Terrelle Pryor

900

9.31

0.89

11

 Julio Jones

708

9.21

1.37

12

 Emmanuel Sanders

861

9.20

0.97

13

 Michael Crabtree

832

9.06

1.02

14

 Golden Tate

866

9.06

0.90

15

 Demaryius Thomas

882

9.00

0.93

 

The average FP/Look among those 15 WRs was 1.03, yet 60% of them failed to meet the average. Michael Crabtree’s 1.02 FP/Look, Emmanuel Sanders’ 0.97 FP/Look, Demaryius Thomas’ 0.93 FP/Look, Larry Fitzgerald’s 0.90 FP/Look, Golden Tate’s 0.90 FP/Look, Terrelle Pryor’s 0.89 FP/Look, Allen Robinson’s 0.82 FP/Look and DeAndre Hopkins’ 0.79 FP/Look were bottom 50% among the 61 “eligible” WRs. On the other end of the 9+ Look spectrum, Julian Edelman led with 10.75 looks per game; with Mike Evans’ 10.69, Odell Beckham Jr.’s 10.63 and Antonio Brown’s 10.47 close behind.


It was Brown though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 1.28 FP/Look to Evans’ 1.19, Beckham Jr.’s 1.15, and Edelman’s 0.76. Brown didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 6th in FP/Look among the 61 WRs; behind Michael Thomas’ 1.35, Jordy Nelson’s 1.37, Brandin Cooks’ 1.37, Julio Jones’ 1.37, and Davante Adams’ 1.40. Although Edelman led in Looks, Looks/G, Touches, and Looks/Snap, as well as finished Top 5 in Targets and Receptions among the 61 WRs, he finished only 55th among them in FP/Look. Adams, on the other hand, led in FP/Look after finishing only 24th in Looks, 25th in Looks/G, 21st in Targets, 21st in Receptions, 23rd in Touches, and 35th in Looks/Snap among the same field.


When deciphering looks from a wide receiver’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), while a high volume of snaps, targets, and touches correlate to a talented fantasy WR, touchdowns are what carry them to the top. Seeking value from those WRs who acquire a high volume of snaps and looks with an above average number of targets in the red zone is going to provide you with weekly scoring consistency.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson finished 8th and 9th among all WRs in Looks, they finished 61st and 66th respectively in Catch % among WRs who accumulated 75 or more Looks. Moral of the story? If you want a high FP/Look, you must first catch the football.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for WRs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for TEs

 

If you took the Top 10 tight ends from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Target (FP/Tgt), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Tgt

1

Martellus Bennett

1.55

2

Cameron Brate

1.39

3

Jimmy Graham

1.31

4

Delanie Walker

1.21

5

Travis Kelce

1.16

6

Jordan Reed

1.15

7

Antonio Gates

1.02

8

Zach Ertz

1.00

9

Greg Olsen

0.97

10

Kyle Rudolph

0.95

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 19 TEs would qualify, and only 7 of these TEs registered at least 6 Targets per Game (Tgts/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Tgts/G

FP/Tgt

1

 Kyle Rudolph

969

8.25

0.95

2

 Greg Olsen

1033

8.06

0.97

3

 Zach Ertz

851

7.57

1.00

4

 Dennis Pitta

811

7.56

0.69

5

 Travis Kelce

888

7.31

1.16

6

 Delanie Walker

707

6.80

1.21

7

 Eric Ebron

708

6.54

0.98

 

The average FP/Tgt among those 6 TEs was 0.99. Dennis Pitta’s 0.69 FP/Tgt ranked dead last among the 19 “eligible” TEs. On the other end of the 6+ Tgts/G spectrum, Kyle Rudolph led with 8.25 Tgts/G; with Greg Olsen’s 8.06 and Zach Ertz’s 7.57 close behind.


The trio of Rudolph, Olsen, and Ertz made similar usage out of their targets; scoring 1.00 FP/Tgt, 0.97 FP/Tgt, and 0.95 FP/Tgt, respectively. It wasn’t any of these three TEs that dominated in the FP/Tgt department, though. Rudolph ranked 9th, Olsen ranked 11th, and Ertz ranked 12th among the 19 TEs. Travis Kelce’s 1.16 FP/Tgt, Delanie Walker’s 1.21 FP/Tgt, Jimmy Graham’s 1.31 FP/Tgt, Cameron Brate’s 1.39 FP/Tgt, and Martellus Bennett’s dominant 1.55 FP/Tgt were the cream of the crop.


Similar to wide receivers, when deciphering looks from a pass-catching tight end’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), those tight ends who operate under a high volume of snaps and targets will obviously provide you with the most consistent weekly scoring output. Typically, though, if a TE posts a 1 reception for 1 yard and a touchdown line, he will provide you with a TE1 week.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While he was a Top 10 TE in scoring, Targets, and Tgts/G, Antonio Gates averaged only 39 snaps per game in his 15 games. In his 585 snaps, though, Gates finished 3rd among all TEs in Targets per Snap and led all TEs who registered at least 500 snaps. If anyone’s going to put up a fight against those writing him off and/or those asking him to step aside for a younger TE, it’s going to be Antonio Gates.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for TEs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Charts by @PyroLytics & words by @WazNFL