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Eddie Lacy

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's Crowded Backfield


Seattle Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls ankle injury will hold him out of week 2 preseason action on Friday. It’s being called a minor injury and Eddie Lacy is now expected to be the starting tailback for the second preseason game.

Fantasy Goo: When it was first announced that Rawls would get the start I thought nothing of it, teams usually rest their banged-up players week 2 anyway. Week 3 is what we really care about, but if they’re resting Rawls this week that becomes somewhat questionable. We should probably consider this a full blown committee at this point, in which case you can read our “League Winners” article to see who I think is worthy of drafting in this backfield.


08/17/17, 09:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's Crowded Backfield


Seattle Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls ankle injury will hold him out of week 2 preseason action on Friday. It’s being called a minor injury and Eddie Lacy is now expected to be the starting tailback for the second preseason game.

Fantasy Goo: When it was first announced that Rawls would get the start I thought nothing of it, teams usually rest their banged-up players week 2 anyway. Week 3 is what we really care about, but if they’re resting Rawls this week that becomes somewhat questionable. We should probably consider this a full blown committee at this point, in which case you can read our “League Winners” article to see who I think is worthy of drafting in this backfield.


08/17/17, 09:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andrew Luck

Indianapolis Colts

Indy Needs Some Luck


There has been quite a bit of concern about Andrew Luck’s availability to start the season on the active roster after offseason surgery. Hartbeat points out that, “Colts seem confident in Luck for week 1 as they haven't changed their playbook.” There is a concern about his offensive line though as starting C Ryan Kelly is likely to find himself on the designated IR for return after foot surgery.

Fantasy Goo: Luck put together a 2016 season with a career best 71.2 QBR and a 92.4 PFF grade. If he’s healthy he’s a must start, and his ADP has fallen nearly two rounds since August first. He is now being drafted as the eighth QB off the board. Check out the Draft Kit vol.3 to get the full goo.


08/17/17, 08:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

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08/17/17, 10:10 AM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: pyromaniac.com


Curtis Samuel

Carolina Panthers

Samuel Back in Pads


Curtis Samuel was back in full pads for today's practice (Wednesday), he has missed almost all of training camp with a hamstring problem that began as a issue in the spring. He's been out for so long that it's hard to see him having a immediate early-season role.

Fantasy Goo: Samuel is the ultimate utility knife if he can get healthy, he can pick up the big plays vacated by Ginn and match anything fellow rookie McCaffrey does in the passing game.


08/16/17, 08:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ty Montgomery

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Rookie's on Display


“Ty Montgomery’s likely absence from Saturday night’s preseason game at Washington will put an even bigger spotlight on the depth-chart battle involving three of Green Bay’s third-day draft picks. Williams is the front-runner in part because he’s shown the best aptitude for pass protection in the backfield. Jones has displayed a different gear in the open field that he’d love to show off in a game if he gets a crease. Mays is the best example of compact power, at 5-10 and 230 pounds.”

Fantasy Goo:Ty performed very well last year with the 3rd best juke rate of 34% and the best yards per contact per touch of all RBs at 2.8. The issue with Montgomery is Jamaal Williams is in line to take away the short yardage work and it’s unclear what type of volume Ty can handle as he rushed double digits in only 1 game.


08/16/17, 07:58 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packers.com


Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Rookie's on Display


“Ty Montgomery’s likely absence from Saturday night’s preseason game at Washington will put an even bigger spotlight on the depth-chart battle involving three of Green Bay’s third-day draft picks. Williams is the front-runner in part because he’s shown the best aptitude for pass protection in the backfield. Jones has displayed a different gear in the open field that he’d love to show off in a game if he gets a crease. Mays is the best example of compact power, at 5-10 and 230 pounds.”

Fantasy Goo:Ty performed very well last year with the 3rd best juke rate of 34% and the best yards per contact per touch of all RBs at 2.8. The issue with Montgomery is Jamaal Williams is in line to take away the short yardage work and it’s unclear what type of volume Ty can handle as he rushed double digits in only 1 game.


08/16/17, 07:58 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packers.com


Jaron Brown

Arizona Cardinals

Jaron Number Two?


Larry Fitzgerald is the No. 1 wideout. Brown? “He’s No. 2 right now,” Coach Bruce Arians said Tuesday.
“I’ve been here for a while,” Jaron Brown said. “Every camp is different. We obviously have injuries, and that gives me an opportunity. I just try to take advantage.

Fantasy Goo: I could see Jaron shooting up draft boards, and I like him as a last round dart throw, but this just makes that receiving corps all the more crowded. A torn ACL prevented Jaron from possibly breaking-out last year. Yesterday we thought JJ Nelson would emerge, I’m sure we will be re-visiting this regularly.


08/16/17, 04:21 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Cole Beasley

Dallas Cowboys

Beasley Under the Radar


NFL Next Gen Stats have revealed many of their numbers to the public recently. Hartbeat picked this one out on Twitter: Cole Beasley adding another advanced stat that he thrives in, Top 10 in separation among all pass catchers.

Fantasy Goo: Beasley was one of the most efficient weapons in the NFL last year. His Defense-adjusted Yards above Replacement and Defense-adjusted Value over Average ranked as 5th best among WRs. For more on Beasley and others check out the Pyro Pulse podcast episode 6, WR Tiers.


08/15/17, 05:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


John Brown

Arizona Cardinals

John Brown’s Health Back in Question


WR John Brown looking like sickle cell IS NOT being managed by the Cardinals. Could be another injury plagued season for Brown. Arians said WR John Brown not practicing full time is a concern (He's been participating in certain drills during practice).

Fantasy Goo: JJ Nelson was the WR11 in PPR scoring weeks 13-17, it appears as though we should be drafting Nelson as one of our late round flyers immediately. If the Brown news continues to be negative we will begin to see Nelson’s stock rise. Jaron Brown and Chad Williams are names we should also keep an eye on, but Arians has complained about their lack of performance publicly.


08/15/17, 04:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Maxx Williams

Baltimore Ravens

Maxx Looks Slow, Open Door for Watson


“Tight end Maxx Williams deserves a ton of credit for persevering through a serious knee surgery and getting back onto the field this summer. But in watching him run, it’s still pretty clear that he has a ways to go. He has bulked up and gotten considerably stronger, so it will be interesting to see whether he becomes more of a blocking tight end, assuming he’s on the season-opening roster.”

fantasy Goo: Ben Watson appears to be worth a last round flier. Denis Pitta was the number eight TE overall last year and he only scored 2 TD’s. Watson was the number 6 TE in 2015 with Drew Brees throwing him 6 TD’s.


08/15/17, 03:54 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.baltimoresun.com


Ryan Mathews

Philadelphia Eagles

Ryan Matthews Released


After passing his physical earlier today, The Eagles have informed former starting RB Ryan Mathews that he's been released. This move was completely expected, the Eagles save a bunch of money by releasing him now.

Fantasy Goo: Hartbeat would like to see him land in: IND, SF, MIA or CHI (all backup roles). I think the Giants or Ravens should see what he has left in the tank, even if it’s just a few games Matthews is a talented back, he’s just been drenched with injuries. I don’t think the team that picks him up has to pay much for him.


08/15/17, 03:30 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Freeman in Concussion Protocol


Coach Quinn says Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol, will be ruled out for Sunday's game. This really means nothing if he’s back by next week, but if this lingers like Jay Ajayi’s concussion, Coleman might actually be worth his draft value in the sixth round.

Fantasy Goo: Despite being only 206 lbs he had the 3rd most RZ carries with 53. Although Coleman is an extremely strong receiver Freeman was still top 5 in catches among RBs on only a 63% snap share.


08/14/17, 04:34 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Fournette Battling Same Issues


Jaguars rookie RB Leonard Fournette suffered a foot injury and HC Doug Marrone said team intends to be "careful with him." Fournette battled a recurring foot/ankle injury throughout his final season at LSU. It was a real problem most of the year.

Fantasy Goo: Fournette was clocked running 22.9 MPH at LSU last season, for reference Tyreek Hill was the NFLs fastest player at 23.2MPH. It appears as though Jacksonville is being cautious, but rookies need to get on the field and learn the nuances of the NFL, especially pass blocking.


08/14/17, 03:31 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Matthews

Buffalo Bills

Matthews Must Play With Pain


Bills' WR Jordan Mathews has what team is calling "a chip fracture in his sternum" and is week to week.
The good news is that it’s just a pain tolerance issue. The bad news is that it can be pretty painful.

Fantasy Goo: Matthews move to Buffalo had very little effect on his projections, but with lack of practice with his new team he will almost certainly get off to a slow start. Check the Pyro Pulse Podcast (Ep.5) to get the hot, sticky goo on how this affects the value of the other Bills and Eagles skill players.


08/14/17, 03:29 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marqise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee High Ankle Sprain Opens Door for Hurns, Again


Jaguars WR Marqise Lee suffered a high-ankle sprain, source said. He'll push hard to be ready for Week 1, but caution could push it back.

Fantasy Goo: Lee was the 39th overall pick of the 2014 draft. In 2016 he caught a career-high 63 passes for 851 yards and three touchdowns. He was finally healthy after continuous injuries the last two years. I think many would rank him higher if we could be sure that he has beaten Allen Hurns out for regular targets.


08/14/17, 02:56 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Reed

Washington Redskins

Reed Has "Special Shoes"


“Redskins tight end Jordan Reed said his new cleats and orthotics have made a difference for his sprained big toe. Reed said, "I'll be out there shortly." He remains on the PUP list.”

Fantasy Goo: Jay Gruden has made it very clear that the offense runs through Jordan Reed, this was never more prominent than when the Redskins let their two best WRs based on production walk this offseason. Reed has obviously red flags when it comes to injuries, he is one dirty hit away from a career ending concussion. When he is healthy, there is no TE that I would rather have, Reed has averaged the most fantasy points per game over the past two seasons and is targeted on a minimum of 15% of his routes.
For more see Hartbeat TE Gold Diggers vol.1


08/13/17, 08:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Shepard Back in Practice


“Just 11 days after he was carted off the practice field with an ankle injury fearing the worst, Shepard practiced fully with his teammates on Sunday. There appeared to be very few restrictions on the second-year receiver, who also didn't seem to be favoring his injured ankle at all.”

Fantasy Goo: Shepard finished second among rookie WRs in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. In general, second year WRs see a jump in fantasy production by 16%, but Sterling is more likely to move in an inverse fashion. With the Giants bringing in Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram, Shepard is the most likely to see a decrease in targets. See Hartbeat, WR Gold Diggers vol.1 for more.


08/13/17, 07:55 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Robby Anderson

New York Jets

Robby With Early Bomb


With Enunwa out for the season the New York Jets will be looking for one of their young receivers to step-up. On their first drive Josh McCown connected with Robby Anderson for a 53 yard gain and finished the drive with a 4-yard TD pass to Charone Peake. Anderson finished the first half with three receptions for 71 yards.

Fantasy Goo: Anderson could be a nice late-round flyer, but this offense doesn’t project for much fire-power. Anderson projects for a 63/830/4 line and Peake is nothing more than a DFS GPP play or possible bye-week flyer.


08/13/17, 08:14 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce to Return Next Week


After the game, Chiefs coach Andy Reid provided an update on a few of those guys, specifically Travis Kelce. “They are close,” Reid noted of those three guys. “(They will) potentially get some work this next week, we’ll just see how it goes. They’ve got a big rehab session (Saturday), so we’ll see.”

Fantasy Goo: Since he fractured his patella in 2013 and missed his entire rookie campaign, Kelce has not missed a game. Kelce led all TEs last season in fantasy points, but he also thrived under advanced metrics, also leading the league in Success Rate on 65% of his plays. – Hartbeat
I five games without Maclin on the field over the past two years Kelce averages 2.76 more PPR points per game even though he did not score a TD in any of them.


08/12/17, 07:56 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Miami Dolphins

Ajayi Still in Concussion Protocol


Running backs coach Danny Barrett believes Kenyan Drake could be an every-down back if Jay Ajayi misses multiple games. He said Drake is “more reliable, more dependable, being where he’s supposed to be – especially in our passing game”

Fantasy Goo: I’m not necessarily buying what they’re selling, but Ajayi out for 10 days so far does concern me. Gase was not happy with Ajayi to start last year and it was a work-ethic issue. A concussion requires medical clearance and cannot be put in the same category, but Gase seems to have the old-school mentality of, “you can’t make the club from the tub.” If Ajayi is out for any amount of time we can expect about a 50/50 split from Drake and Damien Williams, neither is built for work-horse carries.


08/12/17, 06:23 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenyan Drake

Miami Dolphins

Ajayi Still in Concussion Protocol


Running backs coach Danny Barrett believes Kenyan Drake could be an every-down back if Jay Ajayi misses multiple games. He said Drake is “more reliable, more dependable, being where he’s supposed to be – especially in our passing game”

Fantasy Goo: I’m not necessarily buying what they’re selling, but Ajayi out for 10 days so far does concern me. Gase was not happy with Ajayi to start last year and it was a work-ethic issue. A concussion requires medical clearance and cannot be put in the same category, but Gase seems to have the old-school mentality of, “you can’t make the club from the tub.” If Ajayi is out for any amount of time we can expect about a 50/50 split from Drake and Damien Williams, neither is built for work-horse carries.


08/12/17, 06:23 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Matthews

Buffalo Bills

Bills replace Watkins with Jordan Matthews


“Bills acquired WR Jordan Matthews and a 2018 third-round pick from the Eagles in exchange for CB Ronald Darby.” I’m not quite sure what the Bills are thinking here, they now have three (Zay Jones, Anquan Boldin) receivers that play predominantly out of the slot.

Fantasy Goo: For Matthews this is pretty much a lateral move, if he continues to play from the slot. He is far more successful from the slot compared to playing the outside receiver positions. Podcast (Ep.5) to get the hot, sticky goo on how this affects the value of the other Bills and Eagles skill players.


08/11/17, 07:38 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com

Pyro pioneered the Targets, Touches and Looks piece back in 2010

2016 Year End Targets, Touches & Looks

Posted by d-Rx on 03/02/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Targets, Touches & Looks for QBs

 

If you took the Top 10 quarterbacks from 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Matt Ryan

0.61

2

Aaron Rodgers

0.56

2

Dak Prescott

0.56

4

Marcus Mariota

0.51

5

Andrew Luck

0.50

5

Tyrod Taylor

0.50

7

Drew Brees

0.48

8

Kirk Cousins

0.47

9

Matthew Stafford

0.44

10

Andy Dalton

0.43

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, 30 QBs would qualify, and only 8 of these QBs registered at least 40 Looks per Game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Drew Brees

1151

43.50

0.48

2

 Joe Flacco

1111

43.44

0.34

3

 Blake Bortles

1111

42.69

0.38

4

 Aaron Rodgers

1066

42.31

0.56

5

 Carson Wentz

1127

40.81

0.32

6

 Carson Palmer

1045

40.80

0.39

7

 Andrew Luck

1013

40.60

0.50 

8

 Kirk Cousins

1063

40.00

0.47 

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 QBs was 0.43. Carson Palmer’s 0.39 FP/Look, Blake Bortles’ 0.38 FP/Look, Joe Flacco’s 0.34 FP/Look, and Carson Wentz’s 0.32 FP/Looks ranked in the bottom third among the 30 “eligible” QBs. On the other end of the 40+ Looks/G spectrum, Drew Brees led with 43.50 Looks/G; with Joe Flacco’s 43.44 very close behind. 


While Brees’ and Flacco’s Looks/G were very similar, their FP/Look output was not. 16 of the 30 QBs separated Brees (0.48 FP/Look) and Flacco (0.34 FP/Look). Brees didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked only 9th in FP/Look among the 30 QBs. At the top stood Aaron Rodgers’, Dak Prescott’s, and Tom Brady’s 0.56 FP/Look; but most notably, Matt Ryan’s 0.61 FP/Look. Rodgers stands out because he managed to achieve 0.56 FP/Look after accumulating 677 Looks; 108 more than the next guy (Matt Ryan)! Although, do not overlook that each of these 4 QBs ranked among the Top 5 in Comp % among the 30 QBs; each behind Sam Bradford’s 71.56 % (and his 0.39 FP/Look).


The most efficient or highest scoring QBs won’t always be the ones with the most looks, pass attempts, completions, yards, or even touchdowns. What stands out is that the most efficient and highest scoring QBs are those who can A) take snaps on the football field, and B) not throw interceptions. 7 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the bottom half of the 30 QBs who logged at least 500 snaps. For those 3 QBs who went a little interception-heavy, maintaining a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio kind of helped.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

9 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the Top 15 in rushing touchdowns among all QBs. The only QB that failed to score a rushing touchdown was the 2016 NFL MVP himself, Matt Ryan.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for QBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for RBs

 

If you took the Top 10 running backs from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

LeSean McCoy

0.84

2

Ezekiel Elliott

0.81

3

David Johnson

0.79

3

Devonta Freeman

0.79

5

LeGarrette Blount

0.74

6

Mark Ingram

0.73

7

Le’Veon Bell

0.68

8

Jordan Howard

0.67

8

Melvin Gordon

0.67

10

DeMarco Murray

0.66

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, only 23 RBs would qualify, and just 8 of these RBs registered at least 20 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

LeVeon Bell

781

29.58

0.68

2

David Johnson

964

25.81

0.79

3

Ezekiel Elliott

716

24.13

0.81

4

Melvin Gordon

659

23.92

0.67

5

DeMarco Murray

861

22.50

0.66

6

Lamar Miller

623

21.93

0.52

7

Todd Gurley

742

21.00

0.46

8

Jordan Howard

654

20.13

0.67

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 RBs was 0.66, yet only 2 of them failed to meet the average. Lamar Miller’s 0.52 FP/Look and Todd Gurley’s 0.46 FP/Look ranked 20th and 22nd respectively among the 23 “qualified” RBs. On the other end of the 20+ Looks/G spectrum, Le’Veon Bell dominated with 29.58 Looks/G; 3.77 Looks more than David Johnson who finished second.


It was Johnson though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 0.79 FP/Look to Bell’s 0.68. Johnson didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 3rd in FP/Look among the 23 RBs, behind Ezekiel Elliott’s 0.81 and LeSean McCoy’s 0.84. McCoy stands out because he managed to lead in FP/Look after ranking only 13th in looks, 10th in looks per game, 9th in snaps, and 15th in looks per snap among the 23 RBs with over 500 snaps. Elliott, on the other hand, finished 2nd in FP/Look after finishing 2nd in looks, 3rd in looks per game, 5th in snaps, and 3rd in looks per snap among the same field.


One way or another, while a high volume of looks will generate attractive RB numbers, it’s not a sustainable approach. Picking out RBs, especially those receiving looks behind an above average offensive line, who will make the most use out of their looks to score points, will yield the greatest results.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

36 RBs registered 150 or more looks in 2016, but only one these 36 managed to score at least 1 fantasy point per look. His name is Tevin Coleman.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for RBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for WRs

 

If you took the Top 10 wide receivers from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Davante Adams

1.40

2

Brandin Cooks

1.37

2

Jordy Nelson

1.37

2

Julio Jones

1.37

5

Michael Thomas

1.35

6

Antonio Brown

1.28

7

Doug Baldwin

1.21

8

Mike Evans

1.19

9

T.Y. Hilton

1.17

10

Odell Beckham Jr.

1.15

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 61 WRs would qualify, and nearly 25% of these WRs registered at least 9 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Julian Edelman

876

10.75

0.76

2

 Mike Evans

950

10.69

1.19

3

 Odell Beckham Jr.

1002

10.63

1.15

4

 Antonio Brown

975

10.47

1.28

5

 T.Y. Hilton

949

9.69

1.17

6

 Jordy Nelson

1015

9.50

1.37

7

 Larry Fitzgerald

1052

9.50

0.90

8

 DeAndre Hopkins

1085

9.44

0.79

9

 Allen Robinson

1047

9.38

0.83

10

 Terrelle Pryor

900

9.31

0.89

11

 Julio Jones

708

9.21

1.37

12

 Emmanuel Sanders

861

9.20

0.97

13

 Michael Crabtree

832

9.06

1.02

14

 Golden Tate

866

9.06

0.90

15

 Demaryius Thomas

882

9.00

0.93

 

The average FP/Look among those 15 WRs was 1.03, yet 60% of them failed to meet the average. Michael Crabtree’s 1.02 FP/Look, Emmanuel Sanders’ 0.97 FP/Look, Demaryius Thomas’ 0.93 FP/Look, Larry Fitzgerald’s 0.90 FP/Look, Golden Tate’s 0.90 FP/Look, Terrelle Pryor’s 0.89 FP/Look, Allen Robinson’s 0.82 FP/Look and DeAndre Hopkins’ 0.79 FP/Look were bottom 50% among the 61 “eligible” WRs. On the other end of the 9+ Look spectrum, Julian Edelman led with 10.75 looks per game; with Mike Evans’ 10.69, Odell Beckham Jr.’s 10.63 and Antonio Brown’s 10.47 close behind.


It was Brown though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 1.28 FP/Look to Evans’ 1.19, Beckham Jr.’s 1.15, and Edelman’s 0.76. Brown didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 6th in FP/Look among the 61 WRs; behind Michael Thomas’ 1.35, Jordy Nelson’s 1.37, Brandin Cooks’ 1.37, Julio Jones’ 1.37, and Davante Adams’ 1.40. Although Edelman led in Looks, Looks/G, Touches, and Looks/Snap, as well as finished Top 5 in Targets and Receptions among the 61 WRs, he finished only 55th among them in FP/Look. Adams, on the other hand, led in FP/Look after finishing only 24th in Looks, 25th in Looks/G, 21st in Targets, 21st in Receptions, 23rd in Touches, and 35th in Looks/Snap among the same field.


When deciphering looks from a wide receiver’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), while a high volume of snaps, targets, and touches correlate to a talented fantasy WR, touchdowns are what carry them to the top. Seeking value from those WRs who acquire a high volume of snaps and looks with an above average number of targets in the red zone is going to provide you with weekly scoring consistency.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson finished 8th and 9th among all WRs in Looks, they finished 61st and 66th respectively in Catch % among WRs who accumulated 75 or more Looks. Moral of the story? If you want a high FP/Look, you must first catch the football.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for WRs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for TEs

 

If you took the Top 10 tight ends from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Target (FP/Tgt), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Tgt

1

Martellus Bennett

1.55

2

Cameron Brate

1.39

3

Jimmy Graham

1.31

4

Delanie Walker

1.21

5

Travis Kelce

1.16

6

Jordan Reed

1.15

7

Antonio Gates

1.02

8

Zach Ertz

1.00

9

Greg Olsen

0.97

10

Kyle Rudolph

0.95

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 19 TEs would qualify, and only 7 of these TEs registered at least 6 Targets per Game (Tgts/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Tgts/G

FP/Tgt

1

 Kyle Rudolph

969

8.25

0.95

2

 Greg Olsen

1033

8.06

0.97

3

 Zach Ertz

851

7.57

1.00

4

 Dennis Pitta

811

7.56

0.69

5

 Travis Kelce

888

7.31

1.16

6

 Delanie Walker

707

6.80

1.21

7

 Eric Ebron

708

6.54

0.98

 

The average FP/Tgt among those 6 TEs was 0.99. Dennis Pitta’s 0.69 FP/Tgt ranked dead last among the 19 “eligible” TEs. On the other end of the 6+ Tgts/G spectrum, Kyle Rudolph led with 8.25 Tgts/G; with Greg Olsen’s 8.06 and Zach Ertz’s 7.57 close behind.


The trio of Rudolph, Olsen, and Ertz made similar usage out of their targets; scoring 1.00 FP/Tgt, 0.97 FP/Tgt, and 0.95 FP/Tgt, respectively. It wasn’t any of these three TEs that dominated in the FP/Tgt department, though. Rudolph ranked 9th, Olsen ranked 11th, and Ertz ranked 12th among the 19 TEs. Travis Kelce’s 1.16 FP/Tgt, Delanie Walker’s 1.21 FP/Tgt, Jimmy Graham’s 1.31 FP/Tgt, Cameron Brate’s 1.39 FP/Tgt, and Martellus Bennett’s dominant 1.55 FP/Tgt were the cream of the crop.


Similar to wide receivers, when deciphering looks from a pass-catching tight end’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), those tight ends who operate under a high volume of snaps and targets will obviously provide you with the most consistent weekly scoring output. Typically, though, if a TE posts a 1 reception for 1 yard and a touchdown line, he will provide you with a TE1 week.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While he was a Top 10 TE in scoring, Targets, and Tgts/G, Antonio Gates averaged only 39 snaps per game in his 15 games. In his 585 snaps, though, Gates finished 3rd among all TEs in Targets per Snap and led all TEs who registered at least 500 snaps. If anyone’s going to put up a fight against those writing him off and/or those asking him to step aside for a younger TE, it’s going to be Antonio Gates.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for TEs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Charts by @PyroLytics & words by @WazNFL