5,000 Yards…Not This Year!!!-  09/14/12

5,000 YARDS…NOT THIS YEAR!!!

Last season the NFL was taken by storm by three quarterbacks that threw for more than 5,000 yards.  This was quite an amazing feat, considering that it had only been done twice before in the history of the NFL.  Heading into this season there are many out there who believe that there will be more 5,000 yard passers this season, but I am not one of them.  This belief has also affected Fantasy Football leagues this season, with more quarterbacks being drafted in the first round and many leagues having 2 quarterbacks gone within the first 3 picks.  In my opinion picking a quarterback that high was a mistake, especially if you’re looking at last season and were expecting the same results.  There was an absolute increase in the amount of passing in the NFL last season and many feel that the trend will continue this season, but the proof against this lies in the stats from last season.  In this piece I will examine all of the 5,000 yard passing seasons in the NFL and I am going to go over the evidence that will show why there will not be any 5,000 yard passers this season.

The first five weeks of the 2011 season represents the time period where the quarterbacks were way ahead of the defenses.  In those first 5 weeks there were 50 games where a quarterback threw for more than 300 yards passing.  There were 21 games where a quarterback threw for more than 350 yards, and the most astounding stat is that there were 10 games where quarterbacks threw for more than 400 yards passing, which includes Tom Brady’s week one 517 yard performance.  That is a remarkable set of stats for a 5 week period in the NFL. 

Part of the reason for quarterbacks dominating the beginning of any season is natural, as the offenses seem to have the upper hand on defenses coming out of the preseason.  This was even more important last season, as the lockout really put defenses behind the eight ball, and the stats show that it took 5 weeks before the defenses got their footing.  In the remaining 12 weeks of the season there were only 71 more 300 yard passing games, 27 games over 350 yards passing and only games over 400 yards passing.  That represents a near 50% drop across the board from the average of the first 5 weeks.  The result of the final 12 weeks looks extremely similar to the results for the entire 2010 season, where the top three passers were Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees who threw between 4,620 and 4,710 yards and were the only 3 passers over 4,500 yards passing.  Let’s put those numbers right next to each other get a better feel. 

Final 12 weeks of 2011                                                   2010 Results                                                      

5.92 – 300 yard passers per week                                5.65 – 300 yard passers per week

2.25 – 350+ yard passers per week                             2.06 – 350+ yard passers per week

0.67 – 400+ yard passers per week                             0.59 – 400+ yard passers per week

This demonstrates that defenses settled down after the early onslaught as they had more tape on what offenses were doing.  That being said, there were still a lot of defenses that did not have the personnel to stop these offenses last season.  The result of this, for those teams, was to react in the offseason through free agency or the draft to address their needs.  The teams that were at the bottom of the league in passing defense last season were the Packers, Patriots, Saints, Giants and Bears.  The Patriots, who had Brady throw for more than 5,000 yards (because he had to), made major changes to their defense, and will not need Brady to throw as much as he did last season.  The Saints were in a similar situation with their defense, which forced Brees to have to throw all day to outscore their opponents.  These powerhouse quarterbacks have better defenses this year, and that is one reason why they and all the other quarterbacks in the league will fail in their quest to repeat the feat this season. 

Another major factor was the lack or perceived lack of a running game on each of the teams that had a 5,000 yard passer.  Drew Brees had the best running game of the 5,000+ yard passers, as his team’s 3 headed monster helped them rank as the 6^th best rushing team, which most people would not believe and are probably going to check the stats and see if that is correct…don’t worry, it is.  Teams did not fear the Saints running attack and were so concerned with Brees that the success of the running game was a result of passing to set up the run.  Those running backs were also very active in the passing game for Brees, which was a huge asset in achieving his yards last season.  The other 2 quarterbacks did not share the same wealth in the backfield. 

Tom Brady had the 20^th best rushing attack in the NFL last season, but the running game lacked big play potential.  Brady had a horrible defense and was forced to go away from the running game, which helped to propel him to 5,000 yards.  This season the Patriots have completely revamped their defense and have also made a change at running back, going with Stevan Ridley.  This week, Ridley accomplished a feat that BenJarvus Green-Ellis was never able to do in his years in New England, rush for 100 yards in a game.  Both of these factors are why Brady is not going to throw for 5,000 yards this season.

Matthew Stafford had the worst running game of the 3, as the Lions ranked 29^th in rushing last season.  This season does not look like it will be much better as there is no certainty on the return of Jahvid Best, and Kevin Smith and Mikel LeShoure are both injury-prone backs.  If Kevin Smith is able to return to the form of his rookie year, then Stafford will not have a chance at 5,000, although he does have the best chance of the three, as he also has the most dominant receiver in the game, but it will not happen for him this year either. 

Then there is this stat: a quarterback needs to throw for an average of 312.5 yards per game in order to reach the 5,000-yard passing mark.  Here are the 5 quarterbacks who have thrown more than 5,000 yards, and a look at their breakdown of yardage games thrown during that season. 

The top two passers of all time (and last season) were able to throw more 300 yard games than Stafford and the previous 5,000 yard seasons of Marino and Brees.  The other key factor for all of these quarterbacks is that they all needed to throw for at least two 400 + yard games, and Stafford needed a 500 yard game in order to achieve his 5,000 yards.  The fact is that 5,000 yards passing is really hard to achieve and requires near perfection throughout the entire season.  One bad week sets you so far back that you need to have those two 400 + yard games in order to make up the difference.  Add to this all the factors that I have previously mentioned, and that is why I feel this will not be accomplished again this season.  I will come back to this toward the end of the year, as I am keeping stats of how the quarterbacks perform this season, and after week 1, the results were in my favor.  While the first week of the 2011 season had three 400-yard and one 500-yard passing games, the highest passing total in week 1 of 2012 was Matthew Stafford, who threw for 355 yards.  I understand that one week is not a good enough sample, but the fact that there was a full offseason and a year for defensive coordinators to study film and game plan for these offenses make me feel very comfortable in this prediction.     

By  HOUDINI

- 09/14/12