May 22, 2018


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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Career Year Beware… 2014

Career Year Beware… 2014

Posted by d-Rx on 02/14/14

by   The Archer


More Articals


career year means beware graphic



 Career Year Beware… 2014


I am proud to once again bring you my Career Year Beware for 2014. I am a firm believer that you should stay away from a player that is coming off a career year. The likelihood of that player producing similar or better numbers after a monster season is extremely slim.     


It was two years ago that I wrote the first Career Year Beware article. I examined the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL, and compared those numbers against the players’ stats from the following year. The evidence was overwhelming to my point. Over the past two seasons I have warned against drafting 22 players, and only one player, Eric Decker, has had a better statistical season than the previous year. A 95% success rate.   


Those 22 players are shown here as an example of the recent proof. While Decker was the only player that performed better than expectations, it was more a matter of me choosing poorly. The player that I should have chosen last season was Wes Welker. Welker was coming off a 118-reception season in New England, and was entering a new offense with a quarterback that, while a future hall of famer, never had a prolific slot receiver to throw to. In fact, Welker did not have a 100-yard receiving game or a double digit catch game on the season. He was a career year beware player that I missed on last season.


Last season Marshawn Lynch and Vincent Jackson also outperformed my prediction, but they both failed to put up better statistical seasons than the previous year. I usually do not like to include rookies, but last year it was necessary to add in Doug Martin and Alfred Morris. They both came down to earth in their sophomore campaigns. Martin was injured, but he was well behind his rookie pace. The Muscle Hamster only had one touchdown in six games compared to 12 scores last season. Alfred Morris was involved in an offense where he lost a lot of potential scores, as well as carries and yardage. He was overworked in his rookie year, so this was a predicable fall.


Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson were easy pickings, as they were coming off two of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL. They both failed to live up to their stats from 2012, and both missed games with injuries. Brandon Marshall also saw a sharp decline in his stats, thanks in part to the Bears bringing in more weapons, and the development of Alshon Jeffery. There was no way he was going to repeat his 118-catch season, and he finished with only 100. While he still had a great year, it was a drop off from the production he had in 2012.


Reggie Wayne had a renaissance season in 2012, but constant double teams, and an injury caught up to him in 2013. James Jones was the final player I touted last season, due to the 14 touchdowns he scored in 2012. He had basically taken the touchdowns that Jordy Nelson had in the offense the season before, when Nelson had 15 scores. Jones came way down to earth in 2013 with only three scores, and was a player to beware of. Check out the chart below to see the stats from 2012 to 2013 for the players I mention above.


That brings me to the players that you should beware of for 2014. With my first choice it should be no surprise that I am picking Peyton Manning. Peyton is coming off the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Those numbers are not going to be reached by #18 next season. I am not saying that Manning is going to be a bust next season, but you should expect him to throw for under 5,000 yards, as well as see his touchdowns fall by at least 10. If you draft him #1 overall next year, you better temper your expectations if you are expecting an encore performance.


The next player to beware of in 2014 is Jamaal Charles. Charles was an absolute beast in 2013 with 1,980 yards from scrimmage. He also hit pay dirt 19 times on the season. Those numbers were amazing, and definitely a career year for Charles. Prior to last season Jamaal only had 24 touchdowns in his first five seasons with the Chiefs. Andy Reid did a great job of using Charles in both the running and passing game, as well as leaning on him in the redzone. The other payoff is that Charles was able to remain healthy for the entire season. Heading into 2014 there will be a bulls eye on Charles’ back, and he is going to have a much more difficult time reaching these numbers again next year. The Chiefs are going to add more weapons on offense, and look to have a more balanced attack. It is more likely that he sees his touchdowns fall closer to 12, as well as be a potential for injury. I still love Charles and own in him a keeper league, and I am expecting a good season, just not as good as this year.


Matt Forte had an amazing season in 2013, and was a major beneficiary in Marc Trestman’s offense. Forte amassed 1,933 yards from scrimmage with 74 receptions, 30 more receptions than he had in 2012.  Forte’s 12 touchdowns equaled his career high that he set in his rookie season, which was also the last time he had more than 10 in a season. The Bears have a prolific offense and Forte will continue to be a major part of that, but with so many mouths to feed he is likely going to take a dip in his stats next year. Forte had 289 carries last season, which was also the most he has had since his rookie season when he had 316. Forte saw a drop off after his rookie season, and while he should experience another drop off this year, it shouldn’t be as stark with Trestman calling the plays.  


Now comes a player that I picked last season, who was able to come very close to his numbers last year. I am doubling down on Marshawn Lynch; I was just one year off. In 2012 Lynch had 1,786 yards from scrimmage, and fell 213 yards short in 2013. Lynch was able to make up for that with 14 touchdowns in 2013, two more than in 2012. Marshawn also added receptions to his repertoire with 36 receptions last year, 13 more than the previous season. So why am I doubling down on Lynch? Not only did Marshawn have 338 touches in 2012, he followed that up 337 touches last season, which does not include the post-season where he had 70 more touches. That is the kind of mileage that catches up to running backs very fast. Add to that the return of Percy Harvin for an entire season, and the Lynch should see a reduction in his carries. If that is not enough, there is another player that should emerge next season, Christine Michael. The Seahawks drafted Michael in the second round last year, and they expect him to be a part of the offense in 2014.


Josh Gordon was amazing last season. Flash had 87 catches for 1,646 yards and nine scores in only 14 games. Gordon did this with the combination of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Gordon is dynamic and is going to have a solid year next year, but he will be hard pressed to repeat this performance in 2014. The Browns are in turmoil as an organization, firing everyone this off-season. That means that Gordon will be put into a new offensive scheme, and he will likely have a new quarterback. Unfortunately, that new quarterback may be a rookie. Gordon is going to be the target of every defense that he faces next season, and should see bracket coverage every week. Flash may end up with more receptions next season, but his yards per catch should definitely take a big hit.


The final player to beware of in 2014 is Julian Edelman. Edelman is a free agent, and after his 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six scores in 2013 he should be a hot commodity. If Edelman signs anywhere other than back with New England his stock will fall. We saw what happened to Wes Welker who had 118 catches in the Patriots offense and only 73 with the Broncos. Prior to last year Julian never had more than 37 catches, 359 yard or three touchdowns in any season. If he does resign with New England he will still have trouble matching these numbers. Gronk should be back, as well as Danny Amendola and the development of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, which means less targets for Edelman.


I cannot stress enough that there is truth in this system. History is not on the side of any of these players bettering or repeating their performances from last year. It is so important to take your emotion out of the equation when you are drafting next year. You may have had one of these players on your team last year, but I guarantee you got them at a value. When you pay up for past performance the result is almost always under performance. The difference between a winning or losing season can many times be found by answering the following question:

Did I draft this player based on what he did last year, or what he could do this year?


2012 Career Year Beware...


2012 career year players chart




Last years Career Year Beware (2013):  


A Podcast from 2 offseasons ago:


The first Career Year Means Beware piece: 

houdini pyro character


By Houdini (email me)