Week 3
September 24, 2017
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Austin Seferian-Jenkins

New York Jets

ASJ Ready to Play?


Jets TE Will Tye (illness) is listed as questionable for Week 3 leaving Austin Seferian-Jenkins as the only healthy tight end with Jordan Leggett (doubtful, knee) and Eric Tomlinson (elbow) sidelined. Tye should play, but his status is going to lead to a larger workload for ASJ in his first game back.

Fantasy Goo: I’m buying into the renewed AS-J hype, dude is just a freak athlete that can change a game. He is also the only real option other than Kearse and McCown loves a TE. I believe I’m higher on him than any other expert so you might want to take this with a grain of salt, might be a week early on the hype train.


09/23/17, 09:04 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Target Monster


Ravens TE Maxx Williams (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 3. Ravens WR Michael Campanaro (knee) is listed as questionable for Week 3 against Jacksonville.

Fantasy Goo: Ben Watson caught 8-of-8 targets for 91 yards last week, Maxx Williams also caught 4 passes on 4 targets. Flacco loves his TE’s, Watson should be the stream TE of the week with Maxx out, but Flacco needs to target him in the end-zone like Brees did two years ago.


09/23/17, 08:58 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Big Week Potential


The Giants will have to wait until Sunday morning to see if their top cornerback will suit up against the Eagles. Janoris Jenkins is in danger of missing his second straight game, with an ankle injury, and will be a game-time decision against the Eagles. Jenkins is listed as questionable, and hasn’t practiced all week, though he is scheduled to be a limited participant during a short session on Saturday.

Fantasy Goo: If Jenkins is out Alshon Jeffery becomes a must start in all formats, he’ll feast on Eli Apple who moves from slot CB to the outside. That also leaves a wide-open lane for Ertz to put up WR2 type numbers. Making him a viable flex play on DK if you are looking to spend up elsewhere.


09/23/17, 04:38 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Henry Begins Take-Over


Derrick Henry is expected to get a "significant workload" regardless of whether or not DeMarco Murray (questionable, hamstring) plays against the Seahawks in Week 3. Murray did get in a limited practice session on Friday, but even if he is active Henry out-touched him 14-10 in last week's win over the Jags while racking up a career-high 92 rushing yards.

Fantasy Goo: It's not a great match-up for Henry against Seattle, but his workload should be enough to consider starting him in all formats. If Murray is out Henry becomes a solid lock-it-in starter, that’s why he was going in the single-digit rounds in most drafts. If you have lazy owners in your league offer a trade for Henry and try to sell Murray while you have a chance.


09/22/17, 07:27 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Green Bay Packers

Targets Up for Grabs


Randall Cobb (chest) is listed as doubtful for Week 3 against the Bengals.
This should move Jordy Nelson into the slot with Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams as the Packers' outside receivers versus Cincinnati. Despite the Questionable tag, Nelson is fully expected to play against the Bengals after missing almost all of Week 2 with what he deemed a "charley horse." We can consider Cobb as "week to week."

Fantasy Goo: With the Packers target leader Randall Cobb (shoulder) listed as doubtful, Nelson should be locked and loaded into fantasy lineups as a WR1. Many DFS analysts are also eyeing Adams for a break-out game and I’ve seen Allison being scooped up in several dynasty/deep roster leagues.


09/22/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

Pats Injury Report Always a Long List


Rex Burkhead (ribs) is out for Week 3 against the Texans. Chris Hogan (knee) and Amendola are questionable. Hogan was limited by a knee injury at practice this week but his status for Sunday has never been in doubt.

Fantasy Goo: Looks like Gillislee and Hogan should be solid plays this week. With Burkhead out both are in line to benefit greatly, Amendola could cut into Hogan just enough to knock him out of flex range though if he ends up playing.


09/22/17, 06:35 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ezekiel Elliott

Dallas Cowboys

At Least Two More Weeks of Zeke


The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has set a date for a hearing in the Zeke Elliott case: Oct. 2.
It will be two weeks before the court of appeals even hears the arguments from both sides. This thing could certainly get strung out and the suspension could come next season.

Fantasy Goo: If you have him you’re going to have to ride this out all season. His schedule eases some after week 4 so if the court denies the plea from the NFL you are going to reap rewards that you expected when you drafted him. Something in my gut tells me that he will serve some sort of suspension this year though, either way you’ll never get fair value for him in a trade and my gut feeling could just be because I’m a Giants fan. I don’t get the sense that it’s worth handcuffing him at this point either, just because we can’t be sure who the handcuff is yet.


09/22/17, 06:26 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sam Bradford

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Bradford (knee) Out for Sunday


Sam Bradford‘s knee could be a real problem. The Vikings quarterback is not expected to play on Sunday. Bradford will get a second opinion on his left knee from Dr. James Andrews, on Friday. Whenever I hear Dr. Andrews name red flags go up, because it always seems to mean more surgery, but Andrews has performed Bradford’s first two ACL surgeries, so he’s quite familiar with his medical history.

Fantasy Goo: Bradford being out is definitely a down-grade for Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph with Keenum throwing the rock. Theilen gets the largest drop, averaging 9 more PPR points per game with Bradford in.


09/21/17, 08:09 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jimmy Graham

Seattle Seahawks

Jimmy Graham (ankle) DNP Thursday.


That makes it two missed practices in a row and he's shaping up to be very questionable for Week 3 against the Titans. The Seahawks have listed him on the injury report with an ankle injury, but the team did say he banged his knee in Week 2. If Graham can't play, Luke Wilson would likely fill in while the Seahawks run with more three-wide sets.

Fantasy Goo: Whenever Graham is out you have to look for Tyler Locket to get more targets. It’s only a five game sample, but Lockett averages six more PPR points per game with Graham out.Pete Carroll came out Friday and said Graham, listed as questionable, should be fine for Sunday.


09/21/17, 07:37 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Johnson

Arizona Cardinals

Johnson Back for Arizona


Cardinals coach Bruce Arians expects Chris Johnson's carries to increase in Week 3. Chris Johnson rushed 11 times for 44 yards in the Cardinals' Week 2 win over the Colts, out-playing Kerwynn Williams. It appears as though he is ready to run with starting duties during David Johnson's absence.

Fantasy Goo: We shouldn't expect more than an RB3 production, but he is worth scooping up in leagues where he remains un-owned (admittedly, probably not many). I’m looking to make some trades to clear roster space and grab him, bye weeks will be coming soon and he could end up with 15-20 carries some weeks.


09/21/17, 06:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Chris Thompson

Washington Redskins

Thompson Flashes


Thompson only had three carries, but two of them went for scores, including a 61-yard scamper. He finished with six touches for 106 yards and two scores. Rob Kelley could miss time with the injury and Thompson is lightening in a bottle.

Fantasy Goo: Thompson is the back to own in PPR leagues, his floor is solid with the passing downs work and he will probably average five carries a game if Kelley (ribs) is out.


09/19/17, 07:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Backfield Jumble


Carson was the man at running back for the Seahawks, running the ball 20 times for 93 yards, and he caught one pass for 7 yards to give him 100 total yards on the day. Lacy is a non-factor, and Rawls does not look like he will be able to keep Carson from getting the Lion share of carries going forward.

Fantasy Goo: Carson will probably be the number one waiver add in your league, and if you have the number one pick you NEED to add Carson now.


09/19/17, 07:06 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


D'Onta Foreman

Houston Texans

The Foreman Is On The Job


The Texans want to get Foreman more involved in the offense, and this week he had 12 carries for 40 yards. He is going to be in a 60/40 split with Lamar Miller, but there is upside if Miller goes down. His workload should only increase as the season moves along.

Fantasy Goo: If he’s still available, if you have space on your roster, and if you can wait a few weeks for him to take even more of the role, then this is your guy to grab. Foreman could emerge as the Texans primary back by the end of the year.


09/19/17, 07:03 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Rashard Higgins

Cleveland Browns

They Call Him "Hollywood"


Browns placed WR Corey Coleman on injured reserve with a broken hand. Coleman underwent surgery on his broken right hand Monday. Higgins played 54-of-71 snaps against the Ravens, 12 more than Kenny Britt. He also turned 11 targets into seven catches for 95 yards. He was just promoted off the practice squad on Saturday, so he could be a one hit wonder.

Fantasy Goo: Normally I would say to just put him on your watch list, but he could emerge into what we thought Kenny Britt would be. Britt is playing like he doesn’t give a crap right now, which is giving Higgins opportunity and with Coleman out for at least eight weeks there might not be anyone else to throw to.


09/19/17, 07:00 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Will Fuller

Houston Texans

Strong Out, Fuller In


Will Fuller (collarbone) returned to practice on Monday. It's a potential sign Fuller could return for Week 3. The Houston Chronicle reported in early August that Fuller would likely miss "2-3 months," but Fuller is an elite athlete in optimal condition, and he is capable of beating a lengthy timetable like that. The Texans also placed WR Jaelen Strong on waivers and the Jaguars have claimed him.

Fantasy Goo: It’s too bad the Texans still don’t have a QB. Fuller could add a valuable weapon for Watson, but I don’t see Watson being a productive QB that can maintain two WR’s with weekly fantasy value. Keep Fuller on the watch list just in case Watson proves he can produce or they shift to a free agent QB.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


A.J. Green

Cincinnati Bengals

Green looking forward to Green Bay


A.J. Green has struggled to get going this season, with 10 receptions for 141 yards and no touchdowns. This week he faces a Packers defense that could be without Mike Daniels and Ahmad Brooks. Julio Jones had 108 yards against the Packers last week, and without the pass rush of Daniels Green should be able to make more plays downfield this week. The Bengals are looking for their first touchdown of the season, and Dalton wants it to be a passing touchdown to A.J.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell looking for a breakthrough against the Bears


Le'Veon has only totaled 138 yards with no scores through the first two weeks. Owners should be feeling good about his matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago is already without LB Jerrell Freeman, and last week lost his replacement Nick Kwiatkowski. The Bears are a mess and Bell should be able to exploit those weaknesses for big gains this week.


09/19/17, 06:52 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com

Carolina Panthers

Carolina In My Mind


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Cam looked rusty last week, he was literally shaking his arm after passes like there was rust in his shoulder joint. Christian McCaffrey out-snapped Jonathan Stewart 70% to 43% in Week 1, but Stewart out-touched McCaffrey 20 to 18, and Stewart scored the backfield’s lone TD on a red-zone reception where McCaffrey served as a decoy. As Carolina is favored by a touchdown at home, this sets up as another positive-script game where Stewart can log a similar if not superior workload to his dynamic rookie counterpart, giving both Panthers backs RB2/flex appeal. I don’t like any of the receivers, Benjamin is only ranked within the startable range because of the implied opportunity and what should be a prime match-up.


09/17/17, 10:30 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo @ Carolina


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Tyrod is a solid sit for me on the road against a strong Carolina defense that silenced the 49ers on the road last week. McCoy will get 25 or so carries so I’m starting him in season-long, but his upside is capped so he’s a fade in DFS this week. Charles Clay led Buffalo in targets and caught his eighth TD in 29 games as a Bill. Last year’s Panthers allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends, a position to which their Cover-3 zone can be vulnerable.


09/17/17, 10:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

New England @ New Orleans


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
Last year the Saints allowed the second-most points (454) and the most passing yards (4380), the Superdome is now known as football’s version of Coors Field for its elevation of offensive output. My top DFS plays are Brady, of course, Cooks in a revenge game, Gronk if you are ok with paying up at TE, and the way to get Gronk in a DK line-up is to play James White at RB2 or flex. White is cheap, and played the most snaps of the RB’s last week, he could have around 5 receptions for around 35-50yds and cross your fingers for a TD.


09/17/17, 10:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Career Year Beware… 2014

Career Year Beware… 2014

Posted by d-Rx on 02/14/14

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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 Career Year Beware… 2014

 


I am proud to once again bring you my Career Year Beware for 2014. I am a firm believer that you should stay away from a player that is coming off a career year. The likelihood of that player producing similar or better numbers after a monster season is extremely slim.     

 

It was two years ago that I wrote the first Career Year Beware article. I examined the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL, and compared those numbers against the players’ stats from the following year. The evidence was overwhelming to my point. Over the past two seasons I have warned against drafting 22 players, and only one player, Eric Decker, has had a better statistical season than the previous year. A 95% success rate.   

 

Those 22 players are shown here as an example of the recent proof. While Decker was the only player that performed better than expectations, it was more a matter of me choosing poorly. The player that I should have chosen last season was Wes Welker. Welker was coming off a 118-reception season in New England, and was entering a new offense with a quarterback that, while a future hall of famer, never had a prolific slot receiver to throw to. In fact, Welker did not have a 100-yard receiving game or a double digit catch game on the season. He was a career year beware player that I missed on last season.

 

Last season Marshawn Lynch and Vincent Jackson also outperformed my prediction, but they both failed to put up better statistical seasons than the previous year. I usually do not like to include rookies, but last year it was necessary to add in Doug Martin and Alfred Morris. They both came down to earth in their sophomore campaigns. Martin was injured, but he was well behind his rookie pace. The Muscle Hamster only had one touchdown in six games compared to 12 scores last season. Alfred Morris was involved in an offense where he lost a lot of potential scores, as well as carries and yardage. He was overworked in his rookie year, so this was a predicable fall.

 

Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson were easy pickings, as they were coming off two of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL. They both failed to live up to their stats from 2012, and both missed games with injuries. Brandon Marshall also saw a sharp decline in his stats, thanks in part to the Bears bringing in more weapons, and the development of Alshon Jeffery. There was no way he was going to repeat his 118-catch season, and he finished with only 100. While he still had a great year, it was a drop off from the production he had in 2012.

 

Reggie Wayne had a renaissance season in 2012, but constant double teams, and an injury caught up to him in 2013. James Jones was the final player I touted last season, due to the 14 touchdowns he scored in 2012. He had basically taken the touchdowns that Jordy Nelson had in the offense the season before, when Nelson had 15 scores. Jones came way down to earth in 2013 with only three scores, and was a player to beware of. Check out the chart below to see the stats from 2012 to 2013 for the players I mention above.

 

That brings me to the players that you should beware of for 2014. With my first choice it should be no surprise that I am picking Peyton Manning. Peyton is coming off the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Those numbers are not going to be reached by #18 next season. I am not saying that Manning is going to be a bust next season, but you should expect him to throw for under 5,000 yards, as well as see his touchdowns fall by at least 10. If you draft him #1 overall next year, you better temper your expectations if you are expecting an encore performance.

 

The next player to beware of in 2014 is Jamaal Charles. Charles was an absolute beast in 2013 with 1,980 yards from scrimmage. He also hit pay dirt 19 times on the season. Those numbers were amazing, and definitely a career year for Charles. Prior to last season Jamaal only had 24 touchdowns in his first five seasons with the Chiefs. Andy Reid did a great job of using Charles in both the running and passing game, as well as leaning on him in the redzone. The other payoff is that Charles was able to remain healthy for the entire season. Heading into 2014 there will be a bulls eye on Charles’ back, and he is going to have a much more difficult time reaching these numbers again next year. The Chiefs are going to add more weapons on offense, and look to have a more balanced attack. It is more likely that he sees his touchdowns fall closer to 12, as well as be a potential for injury. I still love Charles and own in him a keeper league, and I am expecting a good season, just not as good as this year.

 

Matt Forte had an amazing season in 2013, and was a major beneficiary in Marc Trestman’s offense. Forte amassed 1,933 yards from scrimmage with 74 receptions, 30 more receptions than he had in 2012.  Forte’s 12 touchdowns equaled his career high that he set in his rookie season, which was also the last time he had more than 10 in a season. The Bears have a prolific offense and Forte will continue to be a major part of that, but with so many mouths to feed he is likely going to take a dip in his stats next year. Forte had 289 carries last season, which was also the most he has had since his rookie season when he had 316. Forte saw a drop off after his rookie season, and while he should experience another drop off this year, it shouldn’t be as stark with Trestman calling the plays.  

 

Now comes a player that I picked last season, who was able to come very close to his numbers last year. I am doubling down on Marshawn Lynch; I was just one year off. In 2012 Lynch had 1,786 yards from scrimmage, and fell 213 yards short in 2013. Lynch was able to make up for that with 14 touchdowns in 2013, two more than in 2012. Marshawn also added receptions to his repertoire with 36 receptions last year, 13 more than the previous season. So why am I doubling down on Lynch? Not only did Marshawn have 338 touches in 2012, he followed that up 337 touches last season, which does not include the post-season where he had 70 more touches. That is the kind of mileage that catches up to running backs very fast. Add to that the return of Percy Harvin for an entire season, and the Lynch should see a reduction in his carries. If that is not enough, there is another player that should emerge next season, Christine Michael. The Seahawks drafted Michael in the second round last year, and they expect him to be a part of the offense in 2014.

 

Josh Gordon was amazing last season. Flash had 87 catches for 1,646 yards and nine scores in only 14 games. Gordon did this with the combination of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Gordon is dynamic and is going to have a solid year next year, but he will be hard pressed to repeat this performance in 2014. The Browns are in turmoil as an organization, firing everyone this off-season. That means that Gordon will be put into a new offensive scheme, and he will likely have a new quarterback. Unfortunately, that new quarterback may be a rookie. Gordon is going to be the target of every defense that he faces next season, and should see bracket coverage every week. Flash may end up with more receptions next season, but his yards per catch should definitely take a big hit.

 

The final player to beware of in 2014 is Julian Edelman. Edelman is a free agent, and after his 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six scores in 2013 he should be a hot commodity. If Edelman signs anywhere other than back with New England his stock will fall. We saw what happened to Wes Welker who had 118 catches in the Patriots offense and only 73 with the Broncos. Prior to last year Julian never had more than 37 catches, 359 yard or three touchdowns in any season. If he does resign with New England he will still have trouble matching these numbers. Gronk should be back, as well as Danny Amendola and the development of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, which means less targets for Edelman.

 

I cannot stress enough that there is truth in this system. History is not on the side of any of these players bettering or repeating their performances from last year. It is so important to take your emotion out of the equation when you are drafting next year. You may have had one of these players on your team last year, but I guarantee you got them at a value. When you pay up for past performance the result is almost always under performance. The difference between a winning or losing season can many times be found by answering the following question:


Did I draft this player based on what he did last year, or what he could do this year?

 



2012 Career Year Beware...

 

2012 career year players chart

 

 

 

Last years Career Year Beware (2013):

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/career-year-beware-2013  

 

A Podcast from 2 offseasons ago:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/fantasy-football-fire-podcast-career-year-means-beware-offseason-episode-10

 

The first Career Year Means Beware piece:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/career-year-means-beware 

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By Houdini (email me)