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Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Carlos Henderson Impresses in Broncos OTA’s

"Carlos is a great route-runner," fellow wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders said during OTAs. "He keeps his arms running through the cuts. I’ve been watching film on him and just seeing how he is. He is a technique guy."

Fantasy Goo: This offense has been missing the short-game middle of the field presence in the passing game from a TE or slot receiver. It’s hard to say how many opportunities are there with the QB situation the way it is and two premier receivers on the outside, but this report sounds like they are looking to create opportunities for him, even if it’s on special teams. His metrics profile compares best to Stealing Sheppard.

07/20/17, 06:35 PM CDT by Wheeler


Chris Johnson

Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Re-sign RB Chris Johnson to One-year Contract

This is the perfect situation for everyone involved. Johnson obviously knows the offense, the Cardinals have a solid back-up and can bring their rookie along slowly. Ellington has moved to WR and Kerwynn Williams is comfortable with the offense, but certainly not a solid No.2.

Fantasy Goo:
It doesn’t move the needle for anyone’s value, David Johnson is still the number one or two overall pick and there was no “handcuff” on the radar to begin with. In the four games Chris Johnson was active last year he only did more than spell David in one game, when Arizona crushed Tennessee 40-7.

07/20/17, 04:11 PM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Williams

Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers First Round Pick Might Need Surgery

Reports on Mike Williams are mixed on whether he’ll need surgery or not for the herniated disk in his back, either way it seems unlikely that he will have anything to contribute this year. It seems like Schefter and Rapoport are having a little pissing contest as to whether Williams will actually need surgery.

Fantasy Goo: Draft Tyrell Williams as your WR3, he’s going after the 10th round right now, but that won’t happen for much longer. Keep Dontrell Inman on your radar, he could be a late round flyer in PPR leagues, with Allen out last year Inman finished with more PPR points than Ginn, Cobb and DeVante Parker.

07/20/17, 03:24 PM CDT by Wheeler


Gary Barnidge

Cleveland Browns

Jaguars Meet With Barnidge

“Barnidge was released by Cleveland following this year's NFL Draft. The Browns used a first-round pick on Miami tight end David Njoku, who is set to take on Barnidge's playing time. If the Jaguars were to sign Barnidge, it would be a homecoming for the veteran tight end.”

Fantasy Goo: This means nothing, Barnidge will not have a repeat of his 2015 season. Barnidge is a solid blocking TE that had a spectacular year when there were no other options in the offense. The Jaguars aren’t very adept at using the TE either, Julius Thomas did next to nothing in his two years with the team.

07/20/17, 03:21 PM CDT by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Miami Dolphins

Run Anywhere Else

When Jay Ajayi runs to either side of Jermon Bushrod the Dolphins starting right guard (7 or 8 holes) he averaged 2.97 yards per rush. When Jay Ajayi ran on plays designed for any other holes he averaged 6.04 yards per.

Fantasy Goo: Bushrod was clearly the weak link in Miami's line finishing the year with a 43 PFF Player grade. Look for Miami to try to replace him with Kraig Urbik or Jesse Davis once training camps roll in.

07/16/17, 06:11 PM CDT by The Hartbeat


D'Onta Foreman

Houston Texans

Texans Rookie Gets Caught with Stoned Friend

Big news of D’Onta Foreman’s arrest came on Sunday (7/16) and because everyone is in front of their computers, the news splashed Twitter into a frenzy. The gun he had was legal, his passenger is taking the fall for the weed.

Fantasy Goo: If he’s clean on the piss test, absolutely nothing happens, maybe a 1-2 game suspension at most. He does take a hit in dynasty if he fails the drug test, buy low.

07/16/17, 02:49 PM CDT by Wheeler


Jarvis Landry

Miami Dolphins

Deadline Set for Miami to Re-Sign Landry

Landry will not negotiate his contract after the season begins. I’m not so sure Landry is in Miami’s future plans. They surely won’t franchise him for $18 million next year and they just gave Kenny Stills a nice contract.

Fantasy Goo:I believe Miami has high hopes for DeVante Parker becoming the wide receiver one they drafted him to be. That may be a tall task with Tannehill running the show, but Parker appears to be far more committed to improving this year.

07/15/17, 08:55 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers Backfield Community

Reports out of SF say that Hyde has to earn the starting job. SF drafted two running backs and signed several free agents in the off-season including Tim Hightower and Kyle Juszczyk. If Hyde stays healthy there’s little doubt he earns the job, but he’s in the last year of his contract so if SF has their expected slow start I expect them to turn to their other options quickly.

Fantasy Goo: There are also reports that Hyde doesn’t fit into the Shanahan system well, he’s a tremendous athlete, but this is the time of year to pay attention to the negative information when we usually see nothing but fluff.

07/15/17, 08:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Virgil Green

Denver Broncos

Denver Tight End Job Up for Grabs

The team did select tight end Jake Butt in the 2017 NFL draft, but a knee injury suffered in Michigan’s bowl game may keep the talented rookie out of action for this entire season.

Fantasy Goo: Virgil Green is a blocker and AJ Derby is a natural athlete that converted to TE from QB, they believe he can be used in many ways and McCoy’s offense can use a third pass-catcher. Derby isn’t worth drafting, but we may want to keep an eye on him.

07/15/17, 08:42 AM CDT by Wheeler


Demaryius Thomas

Denver Broncos

Denver Receivers Excited for New Offense

“We’ve got this new offense with Mike McCoy. We’re going to be throwing the ball around so my conditioning has to be up and I’ve been working on that.’’
Sanders is working on a healthier lifestyle and getting ready for a high paced offense. Thomas is just happy to get his favorite play back in the rotation (WR screen).

Fantasy Goo: Thomas’ ADP is rising to the second round, while Sanders’ is hanging around in the late fifth. If you miss on Thomas keep an eye on Sanders slipping to you. While we’re not sure who the QB will be, these two should be just fine where they are being drafted.

07/15/17, 08:37 AM CDT by Wheeler


Doug Martin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McNichols Working on Pass Catching Skills

Jeremy McNichols has been working with the Bucs wide receivers. He's going basically undrafted, McNichols may be worth a late round flyer if you’re in a FFPC (28 round) draft, but we have to see what happens in camp before we can judge this one.

Fantasy Goo: Doug Martin’s ADP has risen to the point where he’s getting way too expensive. If he’s hanging around in the ninth or tenth he might be worth a shot, but there are probably better options to choose from before that point.

07/15/17, 08:30 AM CDT by Wheeler


Frank Gore

Indianapolis Colts

Opportunities in Colts Backfield

“As long as I’m healthy and my guys up front get me the opportunities, I’m going to be successful,’’ Gore said.
Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski remains squarely in Gore’s corner, but there figures to be more of a backs-by-committee approach this season. “You can go a lot of different directions in that you can feature more things or different things with different people,’’ he said. “Some of that will be personnel-driven.’’

Fantasy Goo: With no improvements to the O-line, Robert Turbin showing life in camp, and Marlon Mack being drafted, I don’t see how Gore improves on last year’s total. He keeps on ticking like the energizer bunny, but I think that cliff is close. I’ve been high on him every year until now.

07/15/17, 08:25 AM CDT by Wheeler


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron to see more red-zone targets?

Ebron’s ADP has risen 2-3 rounds, depending on your scoring, in the past two months. Everyone seems to think that Ebron will see more red-zone looks this year with Boldin’s 22 RZ targets leaving town. He has a very safe floor so there’s no real downside to drafting him in the eighth round or later.

Fantasy Goo: I’m going to keep an eye on Boldin as well, he hasn’t signed with another team yet, and he’s not finished playing. Detroit is still on the list of places he could end up.

07/15/17, 08:06 AM CDT by Wheeler


Gerald Everett

Los Angeles Rams

Higbee opens door for Everett

“Receiver Mike Thomas on Friday was suspended for the Rams’ first four games of the regular season because of a doping violation, and tight end Tyler Higbee entered into a plea agreement in connection with an incident that left a man hospitalized.”

Fantasy Goo: This could leave the door open for rookie Gerald Everett to get some major playing time right from the start. There will be plenty of hands in the pot for targets and we certainly aren’t looking for an explosive offense from the Rams, but this is something to keep an eye on as camps begin.

07/15/17, 07:52 AM CDT by Wheeler


George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers

Sleeper Alert: Kittle

Jon Lynch and the people in San Francisco have been raving about the performance of George Kittle in pre-season practices.

Fantasy Goo: As of now Kittle would still be behind Vance McDonald in the pecking order, but keep Kittle in the back of your mind as a potential sleeper at TE in 2017. But remember - he still is a rookie TE.

07/11/17, 01:27 PM CDT by The Hartbeat


Christian McCaffrey

Carolina Panthers

Rookie Slow Your Role

"McCaffrey, while not nearly as big and strong as Stewart, could be effective as a ball-carrier in a power scheme – something he showed throughout his career at Stanford. It’ll be interesting to see how the carries are divvied out week to week."

Fantasy Goo: I expect McCaffery to have numbers comparable to the above-average pass-catching backs, maybe a ceiling of 2013 & 2015 Danny Woodhead (or 2011 Jonathan Stewart), he’s being drafted way too early for redraft with a MFL10 ADP of 35 overall/ RB15.

07/07/17, 11:27 AM CDT by The Hartbeat


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

Stewart Not Done Yet

"Everyone from head coach Ron Rivera to running backs coach Jim Skipper has insisted that Stewart’s role will not change. And Stewart himself has made it clear he’s not at all concerned. The punishing 240-pound runner will continue to see the bulk of the carries."

Fantasy Goo: Fantasy Goo: With a MFL10 ADP in the 12th round Stewart is a steal right now, although the news is getting out and his ADP has started to rise since this article was released.

07/07/17, 11:23 AM CDT by The Hartbeat


Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

Get Money, Get Paid

The Raiders have locked up their QB for the future by giving him the richest contract in NFL history. Carr signed the extension for 5 years $125 million.

Fantasy Goo: We all expected Carr to be in Oakland for the foreseeable future, however there has been a history of players having down years right after inking big deals. Be on the look out for any news that implies Carr is getting complacent with his money. Otherwise, Carr is still a low end QB1 with some weekly upside.

06/22/17, 11:44 AM CDT by The Hartbeat


Marquess Wilson

Chicago Bears

Jets Add Another Former Bear WR

After letting Brandon Marshall walk to the other locker room in NJ and releasing Decker, the Jets are starting to fill the void at WR with Marquess Wilson.

Fantasy Goo: Wilson isn't draft worthy as of now, but he has shown flashes in the pan with some big games. Keep him on your radar through the season as he could provide some strong weeks as bye week fill ins.

06/20/17, 01:19 PM CDT by The Hartbeat


Christine Michael

Seattle Seahawks

The Asleepening: Michael to IR

Christine Michael will not be available for the Colts in 2017. He was placed on the IR.

Fantasy Goo: Robert Turbin has been getting hyped, as has their rookie Marlon Mack. With Michael out of the picture we will have a more clear idea on who will end up being the 34 year old running back's handcuff.

06/19/17, 01:46 PM CDT by The Hartbeat


Career Year Beware… 2014

Career Year Beware… 2014

Posted by d-Rx on 02/14/14

by   The Archer


More Articals


career year means beware graphic



 Career Year Beware… 2014


I am proud to once again bring you my Career Year Beware for 2014. I am a firm believer that you should stay away from a player that is coming off a career year. The likelihood of that player producing similar or better numbers after a monster season is extremely slim.     


It was two years ago that I wrote the first Career Year Beware article. I examined the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL, and compared those numbers against the players’ stats from the following year. The evidence was overwhelming to my point. Over the past two seasons I have warned against drafting 22 players, and only one player, Eric Decker, has had a better statistical season than the previous year. A 95% success rate.   


Those 22 players are shown here as an example of the recent proof. While Decker was the only player that performed better than expectations, it was more a matter of me choosing poorly. The player that I should have chosen last season was Wes Welker. Welker was coming off a 118-reception season in New England, and was entering a new offense with a quarterback that, while a future hall of famer, never had a prolific slot receiver to throw to. In fact, Welker did not have a 100-yard receiving game or a double digit catch game on the season. He was a career year beware player that I missed on last season.


Last season Marshawn Lynch and Vincent Jackson also outperformed my prediction, but they both failed to put up better statistical seasons than the previous year. I usually do not like to include rookies, but last year it was necessary to add in Doug Martin and Alfred Morris. They both came down to earth in their sophomore campaigns. Martin was injured, but he was well behind his rookie pace. The Muscle Hamster only had one touchdown in six games compared to 12 scores last season. Alfred Morris was involved in an offense where he lost a lot of potential scores, as well as carries and yardage. He was overworked in his rookie year, so this was a predicable fall.


Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson were easy pickings, as they were coming off two of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL. They both failed to live up to their stats from 2012, and both missed games with injuries. Brandon Marshall also saw a sharp decline in his stats, thanks in part to the Bears bringing in more weapons, and the development of Alshon Jeffery. There was no way he was going to repeat his 118-catch season, and he finished with only 100. While he still had a great year, it was a drop off from the production he had in 2012.


Reggie Wayne had a renaissance season in 2012, but constant double teams, and an injury caught up to him in 2013. James Jones was the final player I touted last season, due to the 14 touchdowns he scored in 2012. He had basically taken the touchdowns that Jordy Nelson had in the offense the season before, when Nelson had 15 scores. Jones came way down to earth in 2013 with only three scores, and was a player to beware of. Check out the chart below to see the stats from 2012 to 2013 for the players I mention above.


That brings me to the players that you should beware of for 2014. With my first choice it should be no surprise that I am picking Peyton Manning. Peyton is coming off the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Those numbers are not going to be reached by #18 next season. I am not saying that Manning is going to be a bust next season, but you should expect him to throw for under 5,000 yards, as well as see his touchdowns fall by at least 10. If you draft him #1 overall next year, you better temper your expectations if you are expecting an encore performance.


The next player to beware of in 2014 is Jamaal Charles. Charles was an absolute beast in 2013 with 1,980 yards from scrimmage. He also hit pay dirt 19 times on the season. Those numbers were amazing, and definitely a career year for Charles. Prior to last season Jamaal only had 24 touchdowns in his first five seasons with the Chiefs. Andy Reid did a great job of using Charles in both the running and passing game, as well as leaning on him in the redzone. The other payoff is that Charles was able to remain healthy for the entire season. Heading into 2014 there will be a bulls eye on Charles’ back, and he is going to have a much more difficult time reaching these numbers again next year. The Chiefs are going to add more weapons on offense, and look to have a more balanced attack. It is more likely that he sees his touchdowns fall closer to 12, as well as be a potential for injury. I still love Charles and own in him a keeper league, and I am expecting a good season, just not as good as this year.


Matt Forte had an amazing season in 2013, and was a major beneficiary in Marc Trestman’s offense. Forte amassed 1,933 yards from scrimmage with 74 receptions, 30 more receptions than he had in 2012.  Forte’s 12 touchdowns equaled his career high that he set in his rookie season, which was also the last time he had more than 10 in a season. The Bears have a prolific offense and Forte will continue to be a major part of that, but with so many mouths to feed he is likely going to take a dip in his stats next year. Forte had 289 carries last season, which was also the most he has had since his rookie season when he had 316. Forte saw a drop off after his rookie season, and while he should experience another drop off this year, it shouldn’t be as stark with Trestman calling the plays.  


Now comes a player that I picked last season, who was able to come very close to his numbers last year. I am doubling down on Marshawn Lynch; I was just one year off. In 2012 Lynch had 1,786 yards from scrimmage, and fell 213 yards short in 2013. Lynch was able to make up for that with 14 touchdowns in 2013, two more than in 2012. Marshawn also added receptions to his repertoire with 36 receptions last year, 13 more than the previous season. So why am I doubling down on Lynch? Not only did Marshawn have 338 touches in 2012, he followed that up 337 touches last season, which does not include the post-season where he had 70 more touches. That is the kind of mileage that catches up to running backs very fast. Add to that the return of Percy Harvin for an entire season, and the Lynch should see a reduction in his carries. If that is not enough, there is another player that should emerge next season, Christine Michael. The Seahawks drafted Michael in the second round last year, and they expect him to be a part of the offense in 2014.


Josh Gordon was amazing last season. Flash had 87 catches for 1,646 yards and nine scores in only 14 games. Gordon did this with the combination of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Gordon is dynamic and is going to have a solid year next year, but he will be hard pressed to repeat this performance in 2014. The Browns are in turmoil as an organization, firing everyone this off-season. That means that Gordon will be put into a new offensive scheme, and he will likely have a new quarterback. Unfortunately, that new quarterback may be a rookie. Gordon is going to be the target of every defense that he faces next season, and should see bracket coverage every week. Flash may end up with more receptions next season, but his yards per catch should definitely take a big hit.


The final player to beware of in 2014 is Julian Edelman. Edelman is a free agent, and after his 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six scores in 2013 he should be a hot commodity. If Edelman signs anywhere other than back with New England his stock will fall. We saw what happened to Wes Welker who had 118 catches in the Patriots offense and only 73 with the Broncos. Prior to last year Julian never had more than 37 catches, 359 yard or three touchdowns in any season. If he does resign with New England he will still have trouble matching these numbers. Gronk should be back, as well as Danny Amendola and the development of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, which means less targets for Edelman.


I cannot stress enough that there is truth in this system. History is not on the side of any of these players bettering or repeating their performances from last year. It is so important to take your emotion out of the equation when you are drafting next year. You may have had one of these players on your team last year, but I guarantee you got them at a value. When you pay up for past performance the result is almost always under performance. The difference between a winning or losing season can many times be found by answering the following question:

Did I draft this player based on what he did last year, or what he could do this year?


2012 Career Year Beware...


2012 career year players chart




Last years Career Year Beware (2013):  


A Podcast from 2 offseasons ago:


The first Career Year Means Beware piece: 

houdini pyro character


By Houdini (email me)