Week 20
January 19, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Career Year Beware… 2014

Career Year Beware… 2014

Posted by d-Rx on 02/14/14

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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 Career Year Beware… 2014

 


I am proud to once again bring you my Career Year Beware for 2014. I am a firm believer that you should stay away from a player that is coming off a career year. The likelihood of that player producing similar or better numbers after a monster season is extremely slim.     

 

It was two years ago that I wrote the first Career Year Beware article. I examined the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL, and compared those numbers against the players’ stats from the following year. The evidence was overwhelming to my point. Over the past two seasons I have warned against drafting 22 players, and only one player, Eric Decker, has had a better statistical season than the previous year. A 95% success rate.   

 

Those 22 players are shown here as an example of the recent proof. While Decker was the only player that performed better than expectations, it was more a matter of me choosing poorly. The player that I should have chosen last season was Wes Welker. Welker was coming off a 118-reception season in New England, and was entering a new offense with a quarterback that, while a future hall of famer, never had a prolific slot receiver to throw to. In fact, Welker did not have a 100-yard receiving game or a double digit catch game on the season. He was a career year beware player that I missed on last season.

 

Last season Marshawn Lynch and Vincent Jackson also outperformed my prediction, but they both failed to put up better statistical seasons than the previous year. I usually do not like to include rookies, but last year it was necessary to add in Doug Martin and Alfred Morris. They both came down to earth in their sophomore campaigns. Martin was injured, but he was well behind his rookie pace. The Muscle Hamster only had one touchdown in six games compared to 12 scores last season. Alfred Morris was involved in an offense where he lost a lot of potential scores, as well as carries and yardage. He was overworked in his rookie year, so this was a predicable fall.

 

Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson were easy pickings, as they were coming off two of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL. They both failed to live up to their stats from 2012, and both missed games with injuries. Brandon Marshall also saw a sharp decline in his stats, thanks in part to the Bears bringing in more weapons, and the development of Alshon Jeffery. There was no way he was going to repeat his 118-catch season, and he finished with only 100. While he still had a great year, it was a drop off from the production he had in 2012.

 

Reggie Wayne had a renaissance season in 2012, but constant double teams, and an injury caught up to him in 2013. James Jones was the final player I touted last season, due to the 14 touchdowns he scored in 2012. He had basically taken the touchdowns that Jordy Nelson had in the offense the season before, when Nelson had 15 scores. Jones came way down to earth in 2013 with only three scores, and was a player to beware of. Check out the chart below to see the stats from 2012 to 2013 for the players I mention above.

 

That brings me to the players that you should beware of for 2014. With my first choice it should be no surprise that I am picking Peyton Manning. Peyton is coming off the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Those numbers are not going to be reached by #18 next season. I am not saying that Manning is going to be a bust next season, but you should expect him to throw for under 5,000 yards, as well as see his touchdowns fall by at least 10. If you draft him #1 overall next year, you better temper your expectations if you are expecting an encore performance.

 

The next player to beware of in 2014 is Jamaal Charles. Charles was an absolute beast in 2013 with 1,980 yards from scrimmage. He also hit pay dirt 19 times on the season. Those numbers were amazing, and definitely a career year for Charles. Prior to last season Jamaal only had 24 touchdowns in his first five seasons with the Chiefs. Andy Reid did a great job of using Charles in both the running and passing game, as well as leaning on him in the redzone. The other payoff is that Charles was able to remain healthy for the entire season. Heading into 2014 there will be a bulls eye on Charles’ back, and he is going to have a much more difficult time reaching these numbers again next year. The Chiefs are going to add more weapons on offense, and look to have a more balanced attack. It is more likely that he sees his touchdowns fall closer to 12, as well as be a potential for injury. I still love Charles and own in him a keeper league, and I am expecting a good season, just not as good as this year.

 

Matt Forte had an amazing season in 2013, and was a major beneficiary in Marc Trestman’s offense. Forte amassed 1,933 yards from scrimmage with 74 receptions, 30 more receptions than he had in 2012.  Forte’s 12 touchdowns equaled his career high that he set in his rookie season, which was also the last time he had more than 10 in a season. The Bears have a prolific offense and Forte will continue to be a major part of that, but with so many mouths to feed he is likely going to take a dip in his stats next year. Forte had 289 carries last season, which was also the most he has had since his rookie season when he had 316. Forte saw a drop off after his rookie season, and while he should experience another drop off this year, it shouldn’t be as stark with Trestman calling the plays.  

 

Now comes a player that I picked last season, who was able to come very close to his numbers last year. I am doubling down on Marshawn Lynch; I was just one year off. In 2012 Lynch had 1,786 yards from scrimmage, and fell 213 yards short in 2013. Lynch was able to make up for that with 14 touchdowns in 2013, two more than in 2012. Marshawn also added receptions to his repertoire with 36 receptions last year, 13 more than the previous season. So why am I doubling down on Lynch? Not only did Marshawn have 338 touches in 2012, he followed that up 337 touches last season, which does not include the post-season where he had 70 more touches. That is the kind of mileage that catches up to running backs very fast. Add to that the return of Percy Harvin for an entire season, and the Lynch should see a reduction in his carries. If that is not enough, there is another player that should emerge next season, Christine Michael. The Seahawks drafted Michael in the second round last year, and they expect him to be a part of the offense in 2014.

 

Josh Gordon was amazing last season. Flash had 87 catches for 1,646 yards and nine scores in only 14 games. Gordon did this with the combination of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Gordon is dynamic and is going to have a solid year next year, but he will be hard pressed to repeat this performance in 2014. The Browns are in turmoil as an organization, firing everyone this off-season. That means that Gordon will be put into a new offensive scheme, and he will likely have a new quarterback. Unfortunately, that new quarterback may be a rookie. Gordon is going to be the target of every defense that he faces next season, and should see bracket coverage every week. Flash may end up with more receptions next season, but his yards per catch should definitely take a big hit.

 

The final player to beware of in 2014 is Julian Edelman. Edelman is a free agent, and after his 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six scores in 2013 he should be a hot commodity. If Edelman signs anywhere other than back with New England his stock will fall. We saw what happened to Wes Welker who had 118 catches in the Patriots offense and only 73 with the Broncos. Prior to last year Julian never had more than 37 catches, 359 yard or three touchdowns in any season. If he does resign with New England he will still have trouble matching these numbers. Gronk should be back, as well as Danny Amendola and the development of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, which means less targets for Edelman.

 

I cannot stress enough that there is truth in this system. History is not on the side of any of these players bettering or repeating their performances from last year. It is so important to take your emotion out of the equation when you are drafting next year. You may have had one of these players on your team last year, but I guarantee you got them at a value. When you pay up for past performance the result is almost always under performance. The difference between a winning or losing season can many times be found by answering the following question:


Did I draft this player based on what he did last year, or what he could do this year?

 



2012 Career Year Beware...

 

2012 career year players chart

 

 

 

Last years Career Year Beware (2013):

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/career-year-beware-2013  

 

A Podcast from 2 offseasons ago:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/fantasy-football-fire-podcast-career-year-means-beware-offseason-episode-10

 

The first Career Year Means Beware piece:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/career-year-means-beware 

houdini pyro character

 

By Houdini (email me)