Week 11
November 18, 2017
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Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Next Man Up


As expected, Ty Montgomery officially ruled OUT for Sunday against the Ravens. Jamaal Williams should start at running back.

Williams is not Montgomery or Jones, I would not recommend starting him if you can prevent it. It will probably take a positive game script for him to be heavily use, don’t be surprised if we see Cobb being used in the backfield, especially in third-and-long situations.


11/17/17, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Open Door for Agholor


Eagles coach Doug Pederson says that Alshon Jeffery's ankle injury has been lingering for a while, but he is "optimistic" he'll play against the Cowboys Sunday night. He will be listed as questionable.

I’m looking at Nelson Agholor having a nice opportunity to put up some points with Dallas being the 24th ranked defense against opposing WR’s. Ertz coming off of the injury report is an obvious play, he’s a must start whenever he’s on the field.

It seems as though Jeffery plays through injuries every year, but he’s not very effective when he does. His injuries tend to linger and former performance enhancer users tend to get hurt more often.


11/17/17, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kareem Hunt

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Charcandrick West

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard's Time to Shine


The Giants are going to need to put the ball in the air against KC. Keep an eye on the winds in this one. If it is north of 15mph, I will lessen my DFS shares.

Fantasy Goo: If the winds are not bad, Shep could get some looks as he should dominate KC's Steven Nelson. There are 84 starting cornerbacks in the NFL for Week #11. Nelson comes in at #80 according to PFF


11/17/17, 06:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.nflweather.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:43 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:42 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Melvin Gordon

Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/15/17, 11:23 PM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Latavius Murray

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


LATAVIUS MURRAY – RB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 34% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is still getting a lot of touches, and this week had 17 carries for 68 yards with a touchdown. Getting the redzone carries makes him a worthy add in deeper leagues.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Garrett Celek

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


GARRETT CELEK – TE – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAGUES

With George Kittle out of the game, Celek had four catches for 67 yards with a 47-yard touchdown. He is viable as long as Kittle is out.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Jamison Crowder

Washington Redskins

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


JAMISON CROWDER – WR – REDSKINS – AVAILABLE IN 61% OF CBS LEAGUES

Crowder came back to action and had four receptions for 76 yards and one run for five yards. He is finally starting to make an impact when healthy.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MATT BREIDA – RB – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAUGES

Breida had himself a nice game this week, carrying the ball nine times for 55 yards with a touchdown and had one catch for three yards. The 49ers are looking to the future, and Breida will get more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


CASE KEENUM – QB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 73% OF CBS LEAGUES

Looking for a quarterback? Well, how about Keenum? He has the job and the weapons and is doing well. This week he completed 21 of 29 passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a first place team and they need him the rest of the way.


11/14/17, 07:39 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Corey Davis

Tennessee Titans

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


COREY DAVIS – WR – TITANS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

Davis had four receptions for 48 yards, so not what we are expecting, but there is light for the future. He is starting to see more targets, and is the future of what the Titans want to be. He will see more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Marqise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MARQISE LEE – WR – JAGUARS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is on this list every week, and he came through again with six catches for 55 yards and a score. He is the best option in the Jaguars passing game.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Dontrelle Inman

Los Angeles Chargers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


DONTRELLE INMAN – WR – BEARS – AVAILABLE IN 98% OF CBS LEAGUES

In his first action with the Bears he had six catches for 88 yards. He will be the go to guy for Trubisky and is worth adding in deeper leagues.


11/14/17, 07:37 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Robert Woods

Los Angeles Rams

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


ROBERT WOODS – WR – RAMS – AVAILABLE IN 31% OF CBS LEAGUES

Blowing up again…I think you might want to add him. He had eight catches for 171 yards with two scores. He is the Rams #1 and should be on your roster if available.


11/14/17, 07:35 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Joe Mixon

Cincinnati Bengals

Over the Hill


Bengals place Jeremy Hill (ankle) on IR.
Joe Mixon played on a season-high 73% of snaps and handled 94% of Bengals RB carries in Week 9 without Hill. Cincinnati OL remains a massive disaster, though, they are 31st in adjusted OL Yards and bottom-5 in PFF’s yards before first contact per RB attempt.

Volume is key as far as fantasy goes, but let’s take a week before we put Mixon in our starting line-ups. He hasn’t been able to more than 3.5 yards per carry in any game that he’s ha more than 10 carries, and Cincy is playing away, at Tennessee this week, so I expect a negative game script and probably more Gio Bernard.


11/12/17, 09:56 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Detroit Lions

O-line Getting Boost


The Lions activated T Taylor Decker and T Corey Robinson, and Decker will start. Rapsheet thinks this is like signing a big-time free agent midseason.

It usually takes a few games for an offensive line to gel, Stafford is already lighting it up, and tackles don’t usually have a drastic effect in the run game. This is a good sign that Detroit should be able to maintain their offensive consistency and makes Stafford more reliable throughout the fantasy playoffs.


11/12/17, 09:54 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Bilal Powell

New York Jets

Best Buy


Matt Forte didn’t practice for the third straight day with knee swelling. There’s concern about him going forward.

Fire up all the Bilal Powell, and keep Elijah McGuire on your watch-list. Powell is $4000 on DK this week, I have him in all of my GPP line-ups.


11/10/17, 09:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Career Year Beware… 2014

Career Year Beware… 2014

Posted by d-Rx on 02/14/14

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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 Career Year Beware… 2014

 


I am proud to once again bring you my Career Year Beware for 2014. I am a firm believer that you should stay away from a player that is coming off a career year. The likelihood of that player producing similar or better numbers after a monster season is extremely slim.     

 

It was two years ago that I wrote the first Career Year Beware article. I examined the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL, and compared those numbers against the players’ stats from the following year. The evidence was overwhelming to my point. Over the past two seasons I have warned against drafting 22 players, and only one player, Eric Decker, has had a better statistical season than the previous year. A 95% success rate.   

 

Those 22 players are shown here as an example of the recent proof. While Decker was the only player that performed better than expectations, it was more a matter of me choosing poorly. The player that I should have chosen last season was Wes Welker. Welker was coming off a 118-reception season in New England, and was entering a new offense with a quarterback that, while a future hall of famer, never had a prolific slot receiver to throw to. In fact, Welker did not have a 100-yard receiving game or a double digit catch game on the season. He was a career year beware player that I missed on last season.

 

Last season Marshawn Lynch and Vincent Jackson also outperformed my prediction, but they both failed to put up better statistical seasons than the previous year. I usually do not like to include rookies, but last year it was necessary to add in Doug Martin and Alfred Morris. They both came down to earth in their sophomore campaigns. Martin was injured, but he was well behind his rookie pace. The Muscle Hamster only had one touchdown in six games compared to 12 scores last season. Alfred Morris was involved in an offense where he lost a lot of potential scores, as well as carries and yardage. He was overworked in his rookie year, so this was a predicable fall.

 

Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson were easy pickings, as they were coming off two of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the NFL. They both failed to live up to their stats from 2012, and both missed games with injuries. Brandon Marshall also saw a sharp decline in his stats, thanks in part to the Bears bringing in more weapons, and the development of Alshon Jeffery. There was no way he was going to repeat his 118-catch season, and he finished with only 100. While he still had a great year, it was a drop off from the production he had in 2012.

 

Reggie Wayne had a renaissance season in 2012, but constant double teams, and an injury caught up to him in 2013. James Jones was the final player I touted last season, due to the 14 touchdowns he scored in 2012. He had basically taken the touchdowns that Jordy Nelson had in the offense the season before, when Nelson had 15 scores. Jones came way down to earth in 2013 with only three scores, and was a player to beware of. Check out the chart below to see the stats from 2012 to 2013 for the players I mention above.

 

That brings me to the players that you should beware of for 2014. With my first choice it should be no surprise that I am picking Peyton Manning. Peyton is coming off the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Those numbers are not going to be reached by #18 next season. I am not saying that Manning is going to be a bust next season, but you should expect him to throw for under 5,000 yards, as well as see his touchdowns fall by at least 10. If you draft him #1 overall next year, you better temper your expectations if you are expecting an encore performance.

 

The next player to beware of in 2014 is Jamaal Charles. Charles was an absolute beast in 2013 with 1,980 yards from scrimmage. He also hit pay dirt 19 times on the season. Those numbers were amazing, and definitely a career year for Charles. Prior to last season Jamaal only had 24 touchdowns in his first five seasons with the Chiefs. Andy Reid did a great job of using Charles in both the running and passing game, as well as leaning on him in the redzone. The other payoff is that Charles was able to remain healthy for the entire season. Heading into 2014 there will be a bulls eye on Charles’ back, and he is going to have a much more difficult time reaching these numbers again next year. The Chiefs are going to add more weapons on offense, and look to have a more balanced attack. It is more likely that he sees his touchdowns fall closer to 12, as well as be a potential for injury. I still love Charles and own in him a keeper league, and I am expecting a good season, just not as good as this year.

 

Matt Forte had an amazing season in 2013, and was a major beneficiary in Marc Trestman’s offense. Forte amassed 1,933 yards from scrimmage with 74 receptions, 30 more receptions than he had in 2012.  Forte’s 12 touchdowns equaled his career high that he set in his rookie season, which was also the last time he had more than 10 in a season. The Bears have a prolific offense and Forte will continue to be a major part of that, but with so many mouths to feed he is likely going to take a dip in his stats next year. Forte had 289 carries last season, which was also the most he has had since his rookie season when he had 316. Forte saw a drop off after his rookie season, and while he should experience another drop off this year, it shouldn’t be as stark with Trestman calling the plays.  

 

Now comes a player that I picked last season, who was able to come very close to his numbers last year. I am doubling down on Marshawn Lynch; I was just one year off. In 2012 Lynch had 1,786 yards from scrimmage, and fell 213 yards short in 2013. Lynch was able to make up for that with 14 touchdowns in 2013, two more than in 2012. Marshawn also added receptions to his repertoire with 36 receptions last year, 13 more than the previous season. So why am I doubling down on Lynch? Not only did Marshawn have 338 touches in 2012, he followed that up 337 touches last season, which does not include the post-season where he had 70 more touches. That is the kind of mileage that catches up to running backs very fast. Add to that the return of Percy Harvin for an entire season, and the Lynch should see a reduction in his carries. If that is not enough, there is another player that should emerge next season, Christine Michael. The Seahawks drafted Michael in the second round last year, and they expect him to be a part of the offense in 2014.

 

Josh Gordon was amazing last season. Flash had 87 catches for 1,646 yards and nine scores in only 14 games. Gordon did this with the combination of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Gordon is dynamic and is going to have a solid year next year, but he will be hard pressed to repeat this performance in 2014. The Browns are in turmoil as an organization, firing everyone this off-season. That means that Gordon will be put into a new offensive scheme, and he will likely have a new quarterback. Unfortunately, that new quarterback may be a rookie. Gordon is going to be the target of every defense that he faces next season, and should see bracket coverage every week. Flash may end up with more receptions next season, but his yards per catch should definitely take a big hit.

 

The final player to beware of in 2014 is Julian Edelman. Edelman is a free agent, and after his 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six scores in 2013 he should be a hot commodity. If Edelman signs anywhere other than back with New England his stock will fall. We saw what happened to Wes Welker who had 118 catches in the Patriots offense and only 73 with the Broncos. Prior to last year Julian never had more than 37 catches, 359 yard or three touchdowns in any season. If he does resign with New England he will still have trouble matching these numbers. Gronk should be back, as well as Danny Amendola and the development of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, which means less targets for Edelman.

 

I cannot stress enough that there is truth in this system. History is not on the side of any of these players bettering or repeating their performances from last year. It is so important to take your emotion out of the equation when you are drafting next year. You may have had one of these players on your team last year, but I guarantee you got them at a value. When you pay up for past performance the result is almost always under performance. The difference between a winning or losing season can many times be found by answering the following question:


Did I draft this player based on what he did last year, or what he could do this year?

 



2012 Career Year Beware...

 

2012 career year players chart

 

 

 

Last years Career Year Beware (2013):

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/career-year-beware-2013  

 

A Podcast from 2 offseasons ago:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/fantasy-football-fire-podcast-career-year-means-beware-offseason-episode-10

 

The first Career Year Means Beware piece:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/career-year-means-beware 

houdini pyro character

 

By Houdini (email me)