Week 3
September 24, 2017
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Austin Seferian-Jenkins

New York Jets

ASJ Ready to Play?


Jets TE Will Tye (illness) is listed as questionable for Week 3 leaving Austin Seferian-Jenkins as the only healthy tight end with Jordan Leggett (doubtful, knee) and Eric Tomlinson (elbow) sidelined. Tye should play, but his status is going to lead to a larger workload for ASJ in his first game back.

Fantasy Goo: I’m buying into the renewed AS-J hype, dude is just a freak athlete that can change a game. He is also the only real option other than Kearse and McCown loves a TE. I believe I’m higher on him than any other expert so you might want to take this with a grain of salt, might be a week early on the hype train.


09/23/17, 09:04 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Target Monster


Ravens TE Maxx Williams (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 3. Ravens WR Michael Campanaro (knee) is listed as questionable for Week 3 against Jacksonville.

Fantasy Goo: Ben Watson caught 8-of-8 targets for 91 yards last week, Maxx Williams also caught 4 passes on 4 targets. Flacco loves his TE’s, Watson should be the stream TE of the week with Maxx out, but Flacco needs to target him in the end-zone like Brees did two years ago.


09/23/17, 08:58 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Big Week Potential


The Giants will have to wait until Sunday morning to see if their top cornerback will suit up against the Eagles. Janoris Jenkins is in danger of missing his second straight game, with an ankle injury, and will be a game-time decision against the Eagles. Jenkins is listed as questionable, and hasn’t practiced all week, though he is scheduled to be a limited participant during a short session on Saturday.

Fantasy Goo: If Jenkins is out Alshon Jeffery becomes a must start in all formats, he’ll feast on Eli Apple who moves from slot CB to the outside. That also leaves a wide-open lane for Ertz to put up WR2 type numbers. Making him a viable flex play on DK if you are looking to spend up elsewhere.


09/23/17, 04:38 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Henry Begins Take-Over


Derrick Henry is expected to get a "significant workload" regardless of whether or not DeMarco Murray (questionable, hamstring) plays against the Seahawks in Week 3. Murray did get in a limited practice session on Friday, but even if he is active Henry out-touched him 14-10 in last week's win over the Jags while racking up a career-high 92 rushing yards.

Fantasy Goo: It's not a great match-up for Henry against Seattle, but his workload should be enough to consider starting him in all formats. If Murray is out Henry becomes a solid lock-it-in starter, that’s why he was going in the single-digit rounds in most drafts. If you have lazy owners in your league offer a trade for Henry and try to sell Murray while you have a chance.


09/22/17, 07:27 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Green Bay Packers

Targets Up for Grabs


Randall Cobb (chest) is listed as doubtful for Week 3 against the Bengals.
This should move Jordy Nelson into the slot with Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams as the Packers' outside receivers versus Cincinnati. Despite the Questionable tag, Nelson is fully expected to play against the Bengals after missing almost all of Week 2 with what he deemed a "charley horse." We can consider Cobb as "week to week."

Fantasy Goo: With the Packers target leader Randall Cobb (shoulder) listed as doubtful, Nelson should be locked and loaded into fantasy lineups as a WR1. Many DFS analysts are also eyeing Adams for a break-out game and I’ve seen Allison being scooped up in several dynasty/deep roster leagues.


09/22/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

Pats Injury Report Always a Long List


Rex Burkhead (ribs) is out for Week 3 against the Texans. Chris Hogan (knee) and Amendola are questionable. Hogan was limited by a knee injury at practice this week but his status for Sunday has never been in doubt.

Fantasy Goo: Looks like Gillislee and Hogan should be solid plays this week. With Burkhead out both are in line to benefit greatly, Amendola could cut into Hogan just enough to knock him out of flex range though if he ends up playing.


09/22/17, 06:35 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ezekiel Elliott

Dallas Cowboys

At Least Two More Weeks of Zeke


The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has set a date for a hearing in the Zeke Elliott case: Oct. 2.
It will be two weeks before the court of appeals even hears the arguments from both sides. This thing could certainly get strung out and the suspension could come next season.

Fantasy Goo: If you have him you’re going to have to ride this out all season. His schedule eases some after week 4 so if the court denies the plea from the NFL you are going to reap rewards that you expected when you drafted him. Something in my gut tells me that he will serve some sort of suspension this year though, either way you’ll never get fair value for him in a trade and my gut feeling could just be because I’m a Giants fan. I don’t get the sense that it’s worth handcuffing him at this point either, just because we can’t be sure who the handcuff is yet.


09/22/17, 06:26 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sam Bradford

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Bradford (knee) Out for Sunday


Sam Bradford‘s knee could be a real problem. The Vikings quarterback is not expected to play on Sunday. Bradford will get a second opinion on his left knee from Dr. James Andrews, on Friday. Whenever I hear Dr. Andrews name red flags go up, because it always seems to mean more surgery, but Andrews has performed Bradford’s first two ACL surgeries, so he’s quite familiar with his medical history.

Fantasy Goo: Bradford being out is definitely a down-grade for Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph with Keenum throwing the rock. Theilen gets the largest drop, averaging 9 more PPR points per game with Bradford in.


09/21/17, 08:09 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jimmy Graham

Seattle Seahawks

Jimmy Graham (ankle) DNP Thursday.


That makes it two missed practices in a row and he's shaping up to be very questionable for Week 3 against the Titans. The Seahawks have listed him on the injury report with an ankle injury, but the team did say he banged his knee in Week 2. If Graham can't play, Luke Wilson would likely fill in while the Seahawks run with more three-wide sets.

Fantasy Goo: Whenever Graham is out you have to look for Tyler Locket to get more targets. It’s only a five game sample, but Lockett averages six more PPR points per game with Graham out.Pete Carroll came out Friday and said Graham, listed as questionable, should be fine for Sunday.


09/21/17, 07:37 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Johnson

Arizona Cardinals

Johnson Back for Arizona


Cardinals coach Bruce Arians expects Chris Johnson's carries to increase in Week 3. Chris Johnson rushed 11 times for 44 yards in the Cardinals' Week 2 win over the Colts, out-playing Kerwynn Williams. It appears as though he is ready to run with starting duties during David Johnson's absence.

Fantasy Goo: We shouldn't expect more than an RB3 production, but he is worth scooping up in leagues where he remains un-owned (admittedly, probably not many). I’m looking to make some trades to clear roster space and grab him, bye weeks will be coming soon and he could end up with 15-20 carries some weeks.


09/21/17, 06:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Chris Thompson

Washington Redskins

Thompson Flashes


Thompson only had three carries, but two of them went for scores, including a 61-yard scamper. He finished with six touches for 106 yards and two scores. Rob Kelley could miss time with the injury and Thompson is lightening in a bottle.

Fantasy Goo: Thompson is the back to own in PPR leagues, his floor is solid with the passing downs work and he will probably average five carries a game if Kelley (ribs) is out.


09/19/17, 07:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Backfield Jumble


Carson was the man at running back for the Seahawks, running the ball 20 times for 93 yards, and he caught one pass for 7 yards to give him 100 total yards on the day. Lacy is a non-factor, and Rawls does not look like he will be able to keep Carson from getting the Lion share of carries going forward.

Fantasy Goo: Carson will probably be the number one waiver add in your league, and if you have the number one pick you NEED to add Carson now.


09/19/17, 07:06 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


D'Onta Foreman

Houston Texans

The Foreman Is On The Job


The Texans want to get Foreman more involved in the offense, and this week he had 12 carries for 40 yards. He is going to be in a 60/40 split with Lamar Miller, but there is upside if Miller goes down. His workload should only increase as the season moves along.

Fantasy Goo: If he’s still available, if you have space on your roster, and if you can wait a few weeks for him to take even more of the role, then this is your guy to grab. Foreman could emerge as the Texans primary back by the end of the year.


09/19/17, 07:03 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Rashard Higgins

Cleveland Browns

They Call Him "Hollywood"


Browns placed WR Corey Coleman on injured reserve with a broken hand. Coleman underwent surgery on his broken right hand Monday. Higgins played 54-of-71 snaps against the Ravens, 12 more than Kenny Britt. He also turned 11 targets into seven catches for 95 yards. He was just promoted off the practice squad on Saturday, so he could be a one hit wonder.

Fantasy Goo: Normally I would say to just put him on your watch list, but he could emerge into what we thought Kenny Britt would be. Britt is playing like he doesn’t give a crap right now, which is giving Higgins opportunity and with Coleman out for at least eight weeks there might not be anyone else to throw to.


09/19/17, 07:00 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Will Fuller

Houston Texans

Strong Out, Fuller In


Will Fuller (collarbone) returned to practice on Monday. It's a potential sign Fuller could return for Week 3. The Houston Chronicle reported in early August that Fuller would likely miss "2-3 months," but Fuller is an elite athlete in optimal condition, and he is capable of beating a lengthy timetable like that. The Texans also placed WR Jaelen Strong on waivers and the Jaguars have claimed him.

Fantasy Goo: It’s too bad the Texans still don’t have a QB. Fuller could add a valuable weapon for Watson, but I don’t see Watson being a productive QB that can maintain two WR’s with weekly fantasy value. Keep Fuller on the watch list just in case Watson proves he can produce or they shift to a free agent QB.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


A.J. Green

Cincinnati Bengals

Green looking forward to Green Bay


A.J. Green has struggled to get going this season, with 10 receptions for 141 yards and no touchdowns. This week he faces a Packers defense that could be without Mike Daniels and Ahmad Brooks. Julio Jones had 108 yards against the Packers last week, and without the pass rush of Daniels Green should be able to make more plays downfield this week. The Bengals are looking for their first touchdown of the season, and Dalton wants it to be a passing touchdown to A.J.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell looking for a breakthrough against the Bears


Le'Veon has only totaled 138 yards with no scores through the first two weeks. Owners should be feeling good about his matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago is already without LB Jerrell Freeman, and last week lost his replacement Nick Kwiatkowski. The Bears are a mess and Bell should be able to exploit those weaknesses for big gains this week.


09/19/17, 06:52 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com

Carolina Panthers

Carolina In My Mind


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Cam looked rusty last week, he was literally shaking his arm after passes like there was rust in his shoulder joint. Christian McCaffrey out-snapped Jonathan Stewart 70% to 43% in Week 1, but Stewart out-touched McCaffrey 20 to 18, and Stewart scored the backfield’s lone TD on a red-zone reception where McCaffrey served as a decoy. As Carolina is favored by a touchdown at home, this sets up as another positive-script game where Stewart can log a similar if not superior workload to his dynamic rookie counterpart, giving both Panthers backs RB2/flex appeal. I don’t like any of the receivers, Benjamin is only ranked within the startable range because of the implied opportunity and what should be a prime match-up.


09/17/17, 10:30 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo @ Carolina


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Tyrod is a solid sit for me on the road against a strong Carolina defense that silenced the 49ers on the road last week. McCoy will get 25 or so carries so I’m starting him in season-long, but his upside is capped so he’s a fade in DFS this week. Charles Clay led Buffalo in targets and caught his eighth TD in 29 games as a Bill. Last year’s Panthers allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends, a position to which their Cover-3 zone can be vulnerable.


09/17/17, 10:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

New England @ New Orleans


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
Last year the Saints allowed the second-most points (454) and the most passing yards (4380), the Superdome is now known as football’s version of Coors Field for its elevation of offensive output. My top DFS plays are Brady, of course, Cooks in a revenge game, Gronk if you are ok with paying up at TE, and the way to get Gronk in a DK line-up is to play James White at RB2 or flex. White is cheap, and played the most snaps of the RB’s last week, he could have around 5 receptions for around 35-50yds and cross your fingers for a TD.


09/17/17, 10:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Does Height Matter for Wide Receivers?

Does Height Matter for Wide Receivers?

Posted by d-Rx on 05/24/14

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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does height matter for wrs?

 

 

Does Height Matter For Receivers?

 

 

The idea that height can determine the level of success for a wide receiver is an interesting one, and one that came to the forefront in our rookie podcast while discussing Brandin Cooks. Cooks is a burner, who ran a 4.33 forty, signed by the Saints who will have a chance to be a very productive rookie. How productive was the question, as d-Rx believes that Brandin will have over 1,000 yards receiving on the season, and Dawgmatica and myself disagree. My main contention is that at 5’10” Cooks is going to take a little bit longer to develop, and I believed the trend was for these shorter receivers to really break out in their second season. We all made a wager on the rookie production of Cooks, and this article is the result of that wager, and my obsession with diving full on into statistics.

 

In order to get a good sample size, and a better overall view I looked at the greatest receivers in NFL history that were under 6’0” tall, along with current players. After identifying these 20 players, I began by focusing my attention on their rookie season and the type of production they all had. Next, I looked at each player’s following three seasons to see how their careers tracked, looking for trends. The most important statistic I was looking for was how many of them produced a 1,000-yard season as a rookie, and if they did not, when was their first 1,000-yard season.    

 


UNDER 6’0” RECEIVERS


receiving yards for under six feet receivers 

When I charted these out, there was only one rookie under 6’0” that ever had a 1,000 yards as a rookie, Joey Galloway. In fact, including Galloway only three players had over 900 yards as a rookie, and only six that had over 600 yards. I think the most glaring number that jumped out to me was that amongst these 20 great undersized receivers; they only averaged 372.7 yards in their rookie season, as a group. What also became validated for me was their sharp increase of production in their second season. As a group, these receivers jumped their average yards from their rookie to their second season by 498 yards. With Galloway being the only rookie to have 1,000 yards, he represents 5% of the class, but in their second season, the group produced eight 1,000-yard seasons good for 42% of the group. That is a major step up in production in the second season.

 

Now that I had done this research on the undersized receivers, I figured I should look at receivers that stood 6’1” or taller and see how their production stacked up.

 

 

OVER 6’0” RECEIVERS


receiving yards for WR over six feet

 

Once again I looked at the career paths of the best receivers in NFL history, along with current players, over their first four seasons. The thing that stood out to me here was the stronger production by these taller receivers as rookies. In their rookie season, 18% of the group had 1,000 yards receiving, 32% had over 900 yards, and 59% had over 600 yards. While this shows some nice production, as a group they still only averaged 682.45 yards in their rookie season. Like the receivers under 6’0”, this group also saw a sharp increase in their production in their second season by an average of 376 yards. The final piece to the puzzle was combining these and looking for other trends.

 


COMBINED RECEIVERS

 

combined WR chart

 

When I look at this chart, I see that the shorter receivers do get the short end of the stick when it comes to their rookie production. Of the top ten rookie seasons the under 6’0” group only claimed 30% of the spots, two of which were spots nine and ten. The other more glaring trend that I saw here is the lack of great production by these receivers as rookies. These are the greatest receivers to play the game, and only 18% of them had 1,000 yards in their rookie season. The better prospect is to identify the players that are going to make the major jump in their second season, as this is when receivers are making the jump these days, as evidenced by 49% of these receivers having 1,000 yards in their second season. This also came true last season for Alshon Jeffrey. The NFL is changing, but this is proof that putting your stock in a rookie wide receiver to make a major fantasy impact is a risky proposition. It also tells me that I am in a good position to win my wager with d-Rx on the production of Brandin Cooks. I love this kid, and will probably draft him as a starter for my fantasy team, just not as a rookie.

 

 

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By Houdini (email me)