Houdini delivers a doozy here with his Make Your Move for Week 6!
WHO IS THAT???
THE MATCH GAME
This is one of my favorite things to do once the season has gotten at least 5 games in. I like to just look at the stats of players and see if you can determine who that guy is. This is always surprising as every year there are players playing above and below their potential. This is just a small sample size, but gives the pure demonstration of how guys jump into top player production from nowhere.
See if you can match the statistics to the player they belong to.
QB A 117/181 1414 yds 9 TD 4 INT 15 Rush yds
QB B 105/169 1336 yds 8 TD 7 INT 318 Rush yds
QB C 125/186 1536 yds 6 TD 7 INT 35 Rush yds 1 TD
QB D 113/194 1610 yds 7 TD 6 INT 160 Rush yds 5 TD
QB E 119/187 1436 yds 13 TD 4 INT 0yds
QB F 99/152 1273 yds 7 TD 5 INT 8 Rush yds
Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck
RB A 79 att 381 yds 6 TD 4 rec 12 yds
RB B 96 att 476 yds 2 TD 7 rec 67 yds
RB C 83 att 250 yds 1 TD 18 rec 116 yds
RB D 94 att 400 yds 3 TD 10 rec 66 yds
RB E 26 att 185 yds 1 TD 31 rec 264 yds 1 TD
RB F 58 att 173 yds 2 TD 5 rec 21 yds
RB G 90 att 480 yds 5 TD 19 rec 232 yds
RB H 85 att 413 yds 3 TD 20 rec 261 yds
Ryan Matthews, Chris Johnson, Darren Sproles, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, MJD, Fred Jackson, Frank Gore
WR A 29 rec 448 yds 4 TD
WR B 32 rec 352 yds 2 TD
WR C 27 rec 609 yds 3 TD
WR D 18 rec 309 yds 3 TD
WR E 24 rec 402 yds 3 TD
WR F 25 rec 352 yds 2 TD
WR G 19 rec 183 yds 1 TD
WR H 19 rec 386 yds 3 TD
WR I 27 rec 427 yds 2 TD
WR J 19 rec 420 yds 4 TD
Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Mike Williams(TB), Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, AJ Green, Steve Smith, Roddy White
TE A 21 rec 208 yds 3 TD
TE B 22 rec 301 yds 3 TD
TE C 22 rec 327 yds 5 TD
TE D 32 rec 496 yds 3 TD
TE E 8 rec 74 yds 0 TD
TE F 14 rec 136 yds 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley, Jimmie Graham
WHO IS THAT??
Every season it happens that some of the players drafted very high don’t pan out and there are players who have as good of stats if not better and were drafted way later, or not at all. This is what makes your Fantasy season, the ability to have hit on those players that were overlooked by everyone else, and not be saddled with the underperforming superstars. For this week’s piece I decided to look into this yearly occurrence and I am using my 12 team annual league for the references of where these players were drafted. This is a league I have been the commissioner of since 1996, and has a lot of strong Fantasy players. It is always interesting to see how the season changes dramatically from the draft to 5 weeks through the season. I am going to compare players at all the skill positions and I am just going to line up the stats side by side first, which takes the emotion out of it, because if you know who that player is before looking at the numbers you are already making judgments. So let’s get started with the Quarterbacks.
QB B – 105/169 1336 Yards 8TD 7 INT 318 Rush Yards 0TD
QB D – 113/194 1610 Yards 7TD 6 INT 160 Rush Yards 5TD
When you compare these two players it is obvious that you would rather have QB D with his 12 total TD to 6 INT. These are both running quarterbacks and what gives this one away is the 5 rushing TD, so you should know that QB D is Cam Newton. QB B is Michael Vick, the darling of Fantasy leagues last year and the high expectation pick this year. In my league Vick was the 16th player taken on draft day, while Cam Newton went undrafted. This is a freak of an example you might be saying, and I agree Cam Newton is a freak. His stats are incredible and if you were lucky enough to have drafted him or picked him up off waivers you are probably fairing much better than the team that took Vick at the top of the draft. Let’s look at 2 more quarterbacks.
QB E – 119/187 1436 Yards 13TD 4 INT 0 Rush Yards 0TD
QB C – 125/186 1536 Yards 6TD 7 INT 35 Rush Yards 1TD
Now both of these Quarterbacks are doing a good job in compiling yardage, but one is clearly more productive than the other. QB C is yet another one of the big 5 quarterbacks to start this season, and in this case we are looking at Philip Rivers drafted 23rd overall compared to Matthew Stafford selected 77th overall. Stafford was the 12th QB taken in a 12 team league and I am happy to say that I am the one who drafted him and my 4-1 team is reaping the rewards. In my league Rivers was the last of the big 5 to go, but clearly his owner was expecting a lot more from his 2nd round pick, especially when you consider that most experts saw a large drop off after Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Vick and Rivers. Before we leave the Quarterbacks behind I have to look at one more comparison.
QB A – 117/181 1414 Yards 9TD 4 INT 15 Rush Yards 0TD
QB F – 99/152 1273 Yards 7TD 5 INT 8 Rush Yards 0TD
QB F was drafted with the #30 overall pick, while QB A was undrafted in my league. Once again the player with the superior stats is the player, that even if you have him and have been starting him, you are still shocked he keeps putting up the numbers, and his name is Matt Hasselbeck. This is a very interesting comparison as his numbers match pretty well to Tony Romo, QB F. Romo has played one less game, having just had his bye week, but on paper the talent at WR is much better in Dallas than it is in Tennessee, but Hasselbeck has been doing better to this point.
So, it can be fair to say that Rivers, Romo and Vick have underperformed to this point and if you have a chance to grab one of these guys at a discounted price the time to strike is now. Use the stats to your advantage to make a play. Now let’s move our discussion along.
RB H – 85-413 Yards 3TD 20 Rec 261 Yards 0TD
RB C – 83-250 Yards 1TD 18 Rec 116 Yards 0TD
This is one of the more perfect comparisons as they have just about the same amount of touches but a much different result in terms of production. RB C was the #4 overall pick in the draft, formerly known as CJ2K, while RB H is my preseason pick for the year’s biggest breakout, Ryan Matthews, who was selected with the 40th overall pick. It is obvious if you took Chris Johnson you are probably hurting pretty bad right now, and the only hope you have is to wait on him until he gets himself back to CJ2K numbers. Matthews on the other hand is showing why his general manager AJ Smith has been so high on him since trading up to get him. Look for Matthews to continue to be a focal point of the offense, especially while Antonio Gates is still on the mend.
RB B – 96-476 Yards 2TD 7 Rec 67 Yards 0TD
RB G – 90-480 Yards 5TD 19 Rec 232 Yards 0TD
Once again one of these players was a first round draft pick #11 to be exact, but as before it is the poorer numbers of RB B, better known as MJD. On the other hand RB G is 2nd in points for running backs in my league and he was taken with the 113th pick. Fred Jackson has been a world beater this season and is outperforming everyone but Matt Forte in my league (we do not use the standard scoring system). MJD is going to get his chances for more touches with Gabbert behind center for the Jags and he will still put up good numbers going forward. Although, if you have Jackson you can expect him to continue to score with top RB’s the rest of the way in my opinion.
RB F – 58-173 Yards 2TD 5 Rec 21 Yards 0TD
RB A – 79-381 Yards 6TD 4 Rec 12 Yards 0TD
I have been hitting hard on the busts of the first round and this just another log for my fire. RB F was taken with 7th overall pick and has been a total bust so far this year. RB A was taken with the 76th overall pick and with the TD production on top of the yards is proving to be a player this season. The bust is better known as Rashard Mendenhall, while the player is Beanie Wells. At Pyro we have been telling you that Mendenhall is a buy low candidate and this could be one of your last chances to nab him as he is coming back healthy from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last week’s game, but should be a full go, and hopefully will put up those numbers you expect from his high draft position. Wells is finding himself as the main man in Arizona and is glad to have Hightower out of the picture. He was dealing with a hamstring issue last week which slowed him down, but with a bye this week you can expect him to continue putting up numbers. Now let’s look at the last of the running back comparisons.
RB D – 94-400 Yards 3TD 10 Rec 66 Yards 0TD
RB E – 26-185 Yards 1TD 31 Rec 264 Yards 1TD
When you look at RB D taken with the 24th pick in the draft you can’t be too disappointed, but also not happy with the performance so far this season/from Frank Gore. RB E on the other hand is not a guy who gets a lot of carries as evidenced by his 26 carries, but you can’t argue with the production especially in PPR leagues for the 188th selection in my draft, Darren Sproles. Looking forward for Gore you can expect more of the same. He is going to have some real nice games, but I don’t expect him to regain the statistics he had back in 2006, you should more expect the 2008 version where he finished with just over 1400 total yards. Sproles going forward is going to continue to be a PPR gem and a favorite target for Drew Brees. If you are in a PPR league he is a perfect flex replacement if not a starter based on his performance. Now let’s take a look at the wide receivers.
WR I – 27 Rec 427 Yards 2TD
WR C – 27 Rec 609 Yards 3TD
WR I is not having a bad season, in fact his yards are the 6th best by a receiver this year, which is not bad for the 22nd overall selection. Although, WR C taken with the 101st pick is doing better. This is Fitzgerald vs. Steve Smith. Steve Smith has been one of the biggest surprises this year, but I believe you can expect him to continue to put up numbers as Cam Newton keeps feeding him the ball. Larry Fitz has not put up the numbers you may have expected with Kolb coming over from Philly, but I believe they are going to start to gel better going forward and you can continue to expect Larry to be Larry.
WR H – 19 Rec 386 Yards 3TD
WR G – 19 Rec 183 Yards 1 TD
This is another one of those nice side by side comparisons with both guys having the same amount of catches, but once again there is a clear separation in terms of production. To keep the theme going WR G was taken with the 31st overall pick, while WR H went undrafted. It has been a huge disappointment of a year so far with 183 yards for Mike Williams. He is struggling to find openings this year and is not coming close to giving anyone the production you expected from this standout rookie of a season ago. WR H on the hand could have had a breakout season last year if he had not gotten injured, but everyone in New York and those of you who picked him up off the waiver wire are loving you some Victor Cruz. Cruz is the better option going forward as he has Nicks across the field to draw attention away from him and Cruz has quickly built a rapport with Eli Manning.
WR E – 24 Rec 402 Yards 3TD
WR F – 25 Rec 352 Yards 2TD
Well once again we have two players here who are having very similar seasons yet WR F was expected to do much more as he was taken with the #15 overall pick as compared to WR E taken with 81st overall pick. WR F is Andre Johnson and now of course is dealing with a hamstring injury that he had to have surgery on, but should be back in a few weeks. WR E is rookie AJ Green who is showing why he was feared at Georgia. Looking ahead you can only project Green to increase this year and is showing huge value for a rookie taken deep in most drafts. If you own Johnson you need to wait till he comes back and hope he is fully recovered so he can get back to his old self. Although, you should keep in mind, Houston has been running the ball more this season which could eat into Johnson’s numbers once he does return.
WR B – 32 Rec 352 Yards 2 TD
WR D – 18 Rec 309 Yards 3 TD
This example is one that again shows how you can get value deep in your draft. You are obviously going to like the fact that WR B has 32 Receptions to 18 for WR D, but otherwise the stats are the same and you have more TD’s with WR D. WR B was taken with the 9th pick in the draft while WR D slid to pick #128. This is Roddy White vs. Jordy Nelson. White is not putting up near the numbers he amassed last season and you should not expect him to go back to that form. Although, he will still put up steady numbers and be a must start the rest of the year. Nelson has the advantage of having Rodgers and a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball which create match up nightmares for defenses. Nelson is going to continue to put up points, and he is getting the big plays as is evidenced by his 17 yards per catch. He is a strong WR3 play the rest of the year, with potential for huge games.
WR A – 29 Rec 448 Yards 4TD
WR J – 19 Rec 420 Yards 4TD
Here is a situation where both of these receivers are having good years and you have to like the TD production from both of them. WR A is clearly the more steady of the 2 with the number of catches, although WR J has seen a lot more targets in the last 3 weeks. The key that will separate them is the play of their QB. WR A, Greg Jennings, was taken with the 25th overall pick and has a stud QB in Mr. Rodgers. WR J, Pierre Garcon, has been putting up nice numbers for the 54th overall pick and seen an increase with the addition of Painter. Looking ahead in this situation I would still much rather have Jennings, but maybe for the rest of the year we can consider Garcon the poor man’s Jennings. Now it’s time to close this out with the Tight Ends.
TE B – 22 Rec 301 Yards 3TD
TE C – 22 Rec 327 Yards 5TD
Both of these TE’s are putting up good numbers, although TE B was taken with 52nd pick, while TE C was taken at #91. It shows up even more as TE B had his 3 TD’s all in one game against the Bears….I guess I gave it away but it is Jermichael Finley. On the other hand you have the #2 scoring TE in my league, which has done a much better job of scoring every week. You still have to believe in Finley because of his talent and his stud QB, but that also is true for TE C, Rob Gronkowski, with Tom Brady. Both will put up the points, but one of them cost you a lot less on draft day.
TE E – 8 Rec 74 Yards 0TD
TE D – 32 Rec 496 Yards 3TD
This one I wanted to use as an example of what happens many years in many Leagues where TE E was the best player at his position and was the first TE taken in my draft. Of course it is Antonio Gates who was taken with the 41st overall pick and it is hurting just about every team he is on. TE D, on the other hand, was taken with the 85th pick and all he has done is lead the league for TE’s and you better get to know him for years to come, Jimmie Graham. Looking ahead on the season you have to assume Graham is going to continue to put up numbers in the Saints offense and Brees loves the mismatches he gets with Graham. Conversely, Gates is still dealing with his foot injury and may not be back after the bye. When he does return you have to wonder if that injury is going to flare up again.
TE A – 21 Rec 208 Yards 3TD
TE F – 14 Rec 136 Yards 1TD
For the final comparison I wanted to illustrate how you can still find depth at the end of your draft that helps you win your league. TE A was taken with the 186th pick in my draft. TE F who was taken with the 64th pick has suffered more than any other TE this year, and that is Dallas Clark. Clark misses Manning more than any other player on the Colts, although I do not expect him to continue on his current pace. You have to figure that Painter will start to get him the ball more often, but I would need to see it first. TE A is Jermaine Gresham and he should only get better as the season goes on. All of the young players on the Bengals are starting to gel and having a stud in AJ Green that defenses have to pay attention to will allow Gresham to continue to find his opportunities.
What I have demonstrated here is how you end up winning your leagues. There are many novices who play Fantasy Football and think in order to be successful it is all about their first 3 picks. While you do need to have your top picks score, the people who always end up winning their leagues are the ones who make the deeper selections. We also saw a few players that were not drafted that are having major impact seasons, which is why it is important to be paying attention to your waiver wire. As always we will be here at Pyromaniac.com to help you win your leagues.
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