Week 3
September 23, 2017
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Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Henry Begins Take-Over


Derrick Henry is expected to get a "significant workload" regardless of whether or not DeMarco Murray (questionable, hamstring) plays against the Seahawks in Week 3. Murray did get in a limited practice session on Friday, but even if he is active Henry out-touched him 14-10 in last week's win over the Jags while racking up a career-high 92 rushing yards.

Fantasy Goo: It's not a great match-up for Henry against Seattle, but his workload should be enough to consider starting him in all formats. If Murray is out Henry becomes a solid lock-it-in starter, that’s why he was going in the single-digit rounds in most drafts. If you have lazy owners in your league offer a trade for Henry and try to sell Murray while you have a chance.


09/22/17, 07:27 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Green Bay Packers

Targets Up for Grabs


Randall Cobb (chest) is listed as doubtful for Week 3 against the Bengals.
This should move Jordy Nelson into the slot with Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams as the Packers' outside receivers versus Cincinnati. Despite the Questionable tag, Nelson is fully expected to play against the Bengals after missing almost all of Week 2 with what he deemed a "charley horse." We can consider Cobb as "week to week."

Fantasy Goo: With the Packers target leader Randall Cobb (shoulder) listed as doubtful, Nelson should be locked and loaded into fantasy lineups as a WR1. Many DFS analysts are also eyeing Adams for a break-out game and I’ve seen Allison being scooped up in several dynasty/deep roster leagues.


09/22/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

Pats Injury Report Always a Long List


Rex Burkhead (ribs) is out for Week 3 against the Texans. Chris Hogan (knee) and Amendola are questionable. Hogan was limited by a knee injury at practice this week but his status for Sunday has never been in doubt.

Fantasy Goo: Looks like Gillislee and Hogan should be solid plays this week. With Burkhead out both are in line to benefit greatly, Amendola could cut into Hogan just enough to knock him out of flex range though if he ends up playing.


09/22/17, 06:35 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ezekiel Elliott

Dallas Cowboys

At Least Two More Weeks of Zeke


The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has set a date for a hearing in the Zeke Elliott case: Oct. 2.
It will be two weeks before the court of appeals even hears the arguments from both sides. This thing could certainly get strung out and the suspension could come next season.

Fantasy Goo: If you have him you’re going to have to ride this out all season. His schedule eases some after week 4 so if the court denies the plea from the NFL you are going to reap rewards that you expected when you drafted him. Something in my gut tells me that he will serve some sort of suspension this year though, either way you’ll never get fair value for him in a trade and my gut feeling could just be because I’m a Giants fan. I don’t get the sense that it’s worth handcuffing him at this point either, just because we can’t be sure who the handcuff is yet.


09/22/17, 06:26 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sam Bradford

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Bradford (knee) Out for Sunday


Sam Bradford‘s knee could be a real problem. The Vikings quarterback is not expected to play on Sunday. Bradford will get a second opinion on his left knee from Dr. James Andrews, on Friday. Whenever I hear Dr. Andrews name red flags go up, because it always seems to mean more surgery, but Andrews has performed Bradford’s first two ACL surgeries, so he’s quite familiar with his medical history.

Fantasy Goo: Bradford being out is definitely a down-grade for Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph with Keenum throwing the rock. Theilen gets the largest drop, averaging 9 more PPR points per game with Bradford in.


09/21/17, 08:09 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jimmy Graham

Seattle Seahawks

Jimmy Graham (ankle) DNP Thursday.


That makes it two missed practices in a row and he's shaping up to be very questionable for Week 3 against the Titans. The Seahawks have listed him on the injury report with an ankle injury, but the team did say he banged his knee in Week 2. If Graham can't play, Luke Wilson would likely fill in while the Seahawks run with more three-wide sets.

Fantasy Goo: Whenever Graham is out you have to look for Tyler Locket to get more targets. It’s only a five game sample, but Lockett averages six more PPR points per game with Graham out.Pete Carroll came out Friday and said Graham, listed as questionable, should be fine for Sunday.


09/21/17, 07:37 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Johnson

Arizona Cardinals

Johnson Back for Arizona


Cardinals coach Bruce Arians expects Chris Johnson's carries to increase in Week 3. Chris Johnson rushed 11 times for 44 yards in the Cardinals' Week 2 win over the Colts, out-playing Kerwynn Williams. It appears as though he is ready to run with starting duties during David Johnson's absence.

Fantasy Goo: We shouldn't expect more than an RB3 production, but he is worth scooping up in leagues where he remains un-owned (admittedly, probably not many). I’m looking to make some trades to clear roster space and grab him, bye weeks will be coming soon and he could end up with 15-20 carries some weeks.


09/21/17, 06:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Chris Thompson

Washington Redskins

Thompson Flashes


Thompson only had three carries, but two of them went for scores, including a 61-yard scamper. He finished with six touches for 106 yards and two scores. Rob Kelley could miss time with the injury and Thompson is lightening in a bottle.

Fantasy Goo: Thompson is the back to own in PPR leagues, his floor is solid with the passing downs work and he will probably average five carries a game if Kelley (ribs) is out.


09/19/17, 07:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Backfield Jumble


Carson was the man at running back for the Seahawks, running the ball 20 times for 93 yards, and he caught one pass for 7 yards to give him 100 total yards on the day. Lacy is a non-factor, and Rawls does not look like he will be able to keep Carson from getting the Lion share of carries going forward.

Fantasy Goo: Carson will probably be the number one waiver add in your league, and if you have the number one pick you NEED to add Carson now.


09/19/17, 07:06 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


D'Onta Foreman

Houston Texans

The Foreman Is On The Job


The Texans want to get Foreman more involved in the offense, and this week he had 12 carries for 40 yards. He is going to be in a 60/40 split with Lamar Miller, but there is upside if Miller goes down. His workload should only increase as the season moves along.

Fantasy Goo: If he’s still available, if you have space on your roster, and if you can wait a few weeks for him to take even more of the role, then this is your guy to grab. Foreman could emerge as the Texans primary back by the end of the year.


09/19/17, 07:03 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Rashard Higgins

Cleveland Browns

They Call Him "Hollywood"


Browns placed WR Corey Coleman on injured reserve with a broken hand. Coleman underwent surgery on his broken right hand Monday. Higgins played 54-of-71 snaps against the Ravens, 12 more than Kenny Britt. He also turned 11 targets into seven catches for 95 yards. He was just promoted off the practice squad on Saturday, so he could be a one hit wonder.

Fantasy Goo: Normally I would say to just put him on your watch list, but he could emerge into what we thought Kenny Britt would be. Britt is playing like he doesn’t give a crap right now, which is giving Higgins opportunity and with Coleman out for at least eight weeks there might not be anyone else to throw to.


09/19/17, 07:00 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Will Fuller

Houston Texans

Strong Out, Fuller In


Will Fuller (collarbone) returned to practice on Monday. It's a potential sign Fuller could return for Week 3. The Houston Chronicle reported in early August that Fuller would likely miss "2-3 months," but Fuller is an elite athlete in optimal condition, and he is capable of beating a lengthy timetable like that. The Texans also placed WR Jaelen Strong on waivers and the Jaguars have claimed him.

Fantasy Goo: It’s too bad the Texans still don’t have a QB. Fuller could add a valuable weapon for Watson, but I don’t see Watson being a productive QB that can maintain two WR’s with weekly fantasy value. Keep Fuller on the watch list just in case Watson proves he can produce or they shift to a free agent QB.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


A.J. Green

Cincinnati Bengals

Green looking forward to Green Bay


A.J. Green has struggled to get going this season, with 10 receptions for 141 yards and no touchdowns. This week he faces a Packers defense that could be without Mike Daniels and Ahmad Brooks. Julio Jones had 108 yards against the Packers last week, and without the pass rush of Daniels Green should be able to make more plays downfield this week. The Bengals are looking for their first touchdown of the season, and Dalton wants it to be a passing touchdown to A.J.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell looking for a breakthrough against the Bears


Le'Veon has only totaled 138 yards with no scores through the first two weeks. Owners should be feeling good about his matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago is already without LB Jerrell Freeman, and last week lost his replacement Nick Kwiatkowski. The Bears are a mess and Bell should be able to exploit those weaknesses for big gains this week.


09/19/17, 06:52 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com

Carolina Panthers

Carolina In My Mind


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Cam looked rusty last week, he was literally shaking his arm after passes like there was rust in his shoulder joint. Christian McCaffrey out-snapped Jonathan Stewart 70% to 43% in Week 1, but Stewart out-touched McCaffrey 20 to 18, and Stewart scored the backfield’s lone TD on a red-zone reception where McCaffrey served as a decoy. As Carolina is favored by a touchdown at home, this sets up as another positive-script game where Stewart can log a similar if not superior workload to his dynamic rookie counterpart, giving both Panthers backs RB2/flex appeal. I don’t like any of the receivers, Benjamin is only ranked within the startable range because of the implied opportunity and what should be a prime match-up.


09/17/17, 10:30 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo @ Carolina


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Tyrod is a solid sit for me on the road against a strong Carolina defense that silenced the 49ers on the road last week. McCoy will get 25 or so carries so I’m starting him in season-long, but his upside is capped so he’s a fade in DFS this week. Charles Clay led Buffalo in targets and caught his eighth TD in 29 games as a Bill. Last year’s Panthers allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends, a position to which their Cover-3 zone can be vulnerable.


09/17/17, 10:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

New England @ New Orleans


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
Last year the Saints allowed the second-most points (454) and the most passing yards (4380), the Superdome is now known as football’s version of Coors Field for its elevation of offensive output. My top DFS plays are Brady, of course, Cooks in a revenge game, Gronk if you are ok with paying up at TE, and the way to get Gronk in a DK line-up is to play James White at RB2 or flex. White is cheap, and played the most snaps of the RB’s last week, he could have around 5 receptions for around 35-50yds and cross your fingers for a TD.


09/17/17, 10:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Hosting New England


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
The Saints, and Brees are a different animal at home than the road. Alex Smith shredded the Pats last week and even on short rest (6 days, compared to NE’s 10 days) Brees should see similar numbers. I feel good about starting Michael Thomas or Fleener, they should see the bulk of red-zone targets. The RB situation is in flux so the only RB I’m considering is Alvin Kamara, he’s obviously not a cash game play, but at $3500 he could pay-off in a big way.


09/17/17, 10:09 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have alot to do to bounce back to fantasy relevance in week 2


With Blake Bortles playing the role as "game manager" it certainly puts a cap on the Jags offense as a whole,sure Leonard Fournette can be counted on to get the Lions share of work but at the cost of the passing game especially after losing AR15 who is left to count on ?
Blake threw for a meager 125 and a TD in week one's victory over Houston,but went 11 for 21 pass attempts. (21 attempts yoikes)
It seems the lack of faith in Bortles has everyone wondering if you can even start any pass catcher on this team.
The improvement of the defense should help but if history tells us anything it is that the Jags will be playing from behind and will be forced to throw. So again who's catching the ball in Jacksonville week 2?

Allen Hurns caught 3 out of 4 targets for 42 yards in the Jaguars' season opener and should be the one to take on the WR1 duties. He did show some fantasy value two years ago and is most likely to be the receiver with the most upside and is currently WR 49 on pyro rankings.

Marqise Lee was off the marq week 1 and had 4 balls thrown his way and failed to haul in a single catch, but he is in line to be the WR2. Maybe the increased workload and motivation of being more involved in the game plan will be the trick for Lee who's is WR 50 on pyro rankings.

Marcedes Lewis the tight-end failed to make a single reception of his two targets vs.the Texans. He could be called on to make up some of the loss of ARob but I'm not holding my breath. He only had 169 yards and a single touchdown all of last season Lewis is currently holding down TE 47 on the current pyro rankings.

Fantasy Goo: So if your like me the approach in Jacksonville is wait and see what happens Sunday vs Tennessee and hopefully we get the answers we are looking for by end of week three.


09/17/17, 05:13 AM CDT by PK Ripper

Source: pyromaniac.com

Green Bay Packers

Packers @ Falcons


Ty Montgomery played 75 of82 snaps, he’s playing a team that struggles to cover RBs and there’s a high over under. After allowing a league-high 14.5 receiving points per game to opposing backfields in 2016, Atlanta allowed a Week 1 high 23.1 points to the Chicago backfield receiving. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdowns with at least three in each game and averaged 29.3 points per game. Randall Cobb accounted for 32 percent of the Green Bay targets Week 1.

Fantasy Goo: Start everyone mentioned above and Jordy. I guess Adams and Bennett are solid plays too, but I usually stay away from them in general, very TD dependent. This should be a shoot-out in Atlanta’s new stadium, and I expect Ty Montgomery to have the best value at $5800 on DK.


09/16/17, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Jordan Howard is overvalued in MFL10s

My Most Overvalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by Stagg Party on 07/13/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Through the course of piling up some MFL10s (mfl10s.com) this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 2,000 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at http://fantasyadhd.com/mfl10_live/ and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.

 

Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are overvalued. These guys aren’t on many of my rosters so feel free to hit that draft button.

 


Jordan Howard – Current ADP #16

While I like Jordan Howard as a top-10 running back enough this season, I think he is being overdrafted in the overall scheme of the draft. Running backs have stormed back after an outside of trend season last year and have an ADP that is much more similar to the days of old. So while I like Jordan Howard’s eighth spot among running backs, I am much more likely to draft a wide receiver when it is time to press submit on Jordan Howard. Howard does possess some reasons to be skeptical however, as he had a fairly unprecedented rookie season as there have been 46 instances in NFL History of RBs with 250 or more attempts averaging over 5.05 yards per carry. The season after domination like that? The average running back lost .82 yards per carry and only three running backs have had a better yards per carry average the next season and they are just some guys named Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk. The Indiana product also dominated against light fronts averaging 6.15 yards per carry with six or fewer men in the box. When defenses stacked the box, with eight or more men in the box, Howard averaged a paltry 2.82 yards per carry. Howard won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season especially with quarterback play by Mike Glennon or rookie Mitch Trubisky. Howard is also expected to lose passing game work to Benny Cunningham or rookie Tarik Cohen, and with the negative game scripts Chicago is sure to be playing with next season, this could be a big loss after seeing 50 targets in his rookie season. The optimists will hope the optometrists did their job with J-How’s eye surgery and say he will find the endzone more with added volume, but Jordan is not without his warts.  

 

 

Leonard Fournette – Current ADP #23 

Leonard Fournette sort of suffers from some of the same things as Jordan Howard, as he is being drafted in a spot at the back of the second round where I’d much rather draft wide receivers. Fourny also doesn’t have the advantage of running behind a great offensive line or coming into the league as an adept pass catcher in the same vein as Ezekiel Elliott. On average, just three rookies a year finish as a top-24 at his position and there are plenty of candidates to not live up to the rookie hype, Fournette just costs the most to acquire, so I will be avoiding unless his price comes down. Brandon Linder played well last season, but the rest of the offensive line has struggled, the addition of Branden Albert could pay off if he stays healthy, but that has been his Achilles heel over the last few years. The Jags will also need to completely retool their offensive mindset, going from an aerial attack to a ground and pound style, which doesn’t happen in just the blink of an eye.

 

 

Tyreek Hill – Current ADP #43

Tyreek Hill is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL and fantasy for this upcoming season, and it has nothing to do with his off-field issues. Hill burst onto the scene in the second half of the season and there was a stretch where he was a top-12 PPR receiver. The team released Jeremy Maclin and it gives a big opportunity to the second year playmaker. The issue with Hill is people are over-projecting and here’s why: they are expecting both more carries and more receptions. In the history of the NFL, there has never been a wide receiver to receive 90 catches and 30 carries in a season. If we are expecting him to take more of a receiving load, then we should be careful on his expectations as a ball carries. As the 42nd player off the board, I’d just rather spend the pick on other players in his range. Hill also averaged just 9.7 yards per reception and with Alex Smith at the helm he is unlikely to suddenly become more of a downfield threat. Smith has never had a receiver with 70 or more targets average more than 12.5 yards per catch while with Kansas City. 


 

Dalvin Cook – Current ADP #53

Dalvin Cook is one of the rookie running backs that everyone is lusting over, and as previously discussed, the number of top players that are rookies really varies per season and everyone loves the shiny new toys. I won’t pound more on his lackluster combine, but I will talk about his competition in the backfield, and the strength of the offensive line. Latavius Murray has proven capable if unspectacular when given opportunities and also scored 12 touchdowns last season. Murray is a great pass protector and coaching notes this offseason have stated that it is the biggest area in which Cook needs to improve. The Florida State product will also have to battle with Jerick McKinnon who when given limited carries has made explosive plays as a runner and a receiver. Without a rugged offensive line in front of him, albeit and improved one, and potential to lose the important touches like redzone carries and receptions, Cook could have a tough time paying off his fifth round ADP.

 


Donte Moncrief – Current ADP #61

Donte Moncrief is a fantasy love child, I am not sure who his daddy is but it has to be someone in the industry. Moncrief has looked like a man-child while in the league, he is big and fast, but still that childishness tends to show on the league, as he has struggled with inconsistency and health so far in his career. Moncrief has seen his yards per catch dip in every season since entering the league and has per game averages of 3.1 catches on 5.1 targets for 36.2 yards. The 16 game pace for that so you don’t have to grab your calculators is: 50 catches on 82 targets for 580 yards. Moncrief’s saving grace has been his ability to score touchdowns, hauling in thirteen of them over the last two seasons. At this stage, projecting Moncrief for 1,000 yards is a big stretch, so lets look at some high touchdown guys who don’t pick up the yards. Since 2005, the receiver with the most touchdowns and under 1,000 yards in a season is James Jones in 2012, when he scored 14. In fact Aaron Rodgers has supported 3 receivers with 12+ touchdowns and under 1,000 yards since 2005, and he is the only quarterback to do so. So if we cap Moncrief at 11 touchdowns and 800 yards we are maybe looking at an upside of WR 24, receivers being drafted behind him have more than that.


 

DeVante Parker – Current ADP #70

DeVante Parker is entering his third year in the league where all receivers break out, I mean it is a fact, a fact that has been disproven over the last few years as spread style offenses have gotten receivers more comfortable in the passing game than ever before. Parker is otherworldly talented and can make tough grabs in contested situations. Unfortunately for Parker though he plays in the most low volume offense in the entire league. The Dolphins are focused on running the ball first and foremost, and then when they go to pass they have a high volume receiver in Jarvis Landry. They also have one of the best deep threats in the league in Kenny Stills who scored nine touchdowns last season. This doesn’t even talk about the redzone where the Dolphins added Julius Thomas who caught 12 touchdown passes in each of his two seasons under Gase in Denver. Tannehill has never thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a season and has seen his attempts per game under Gase shrink. All in all, I am not buying a breakout for Parker and unwilling to spend a mid sixth round pick on him when there are more proven contributors with upside still on the board.

 


Jameis Winston – Current ADP #83

First let me start with this caveat, I think Jameis Winston will be a good fantasy quarterback this year, but he is being drafted to high, just like any QB after the top two tiers off the board, the first one looks the worst. Hell, Matt Ryan is going behind him. Jameis is currently all the rage after the team added D-Jax (A 30-year old speed wide receiver with a history of injuries, hasn’t played a full season since 2013) Chris Godwin (who unfortunately might not see the field as much as he should because of other weapons) and O.J. Howard (rookie tight ends historically don’t do much in their first seasons) this offseason. As the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board I have worries for a quarterback whose team was at their best when he wasn’t asked to throw more, why change a formula that has won you football games? Let’s also play a game of our own, choose between these two quarterbacks and their average seasons over the last two years:

 

Player A: 361/615 58.9% completions. 4,166 yards 29 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, 55 rushes for 334 yards and 2.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Player B: 328/551 59.5% completions, 4067 yards 25 touchdowns to 16.5 interceptions, 52 rushes for 189 yards and 3.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Which Player are you picking, and this doesn’t even factor in cost where player A is going 5 rounds later? Scroll down to the bottom to see whom each player is.

 


Delanie Walker – Current ADP #95

For once, I think tight ends are properly valued. With Gronk around pick 20 and Kelce maybe a tad high at pick 30, the price is right. There is about a tight end a round off the board after them, but suddenly Delanie Walker comes up and a run starts. While I like Walker, his value has been damaged this offseason, not great for a soon-to-be 34 year old tight end who set a new career high in touchdown grabs last season. Walker has so much added competition with Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor added in the draft and expected to make an impact. Not to mention, Johnnu Smith who is also a move tight end and the recent addition of Eric Decker who can play the slot better than Walker. With Anthony Fasano gone, Delanie Walker could be forced to play the in-line tight end position and block more than he has in the past three straight 100-target seasons. With added weaponry and a tweaked roll, Walker could have a hard time surpassing the 100-targets he has become accustomed too and without added touchdowns, which seem far-fetched will have a hard time making up for them. When it comes time to take Walker, I’d rather take a pass and wait a round for the likes of Ertz and the Black Unicorn.

 

 

Player A: Blake Bortles

Player B: Jameis Winston 

 

 

Check out my most undervalued players here. 

 

 

By Stagg Party

 

 

 

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