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Paul Perkins

New York Giants

Perkins Not Ideal For 0-RB


Many fantasy analysts are valuing Perkins very high due to reports that he could be a 3 down back for the Giants.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have produced only 11 rushing TDs over the past two years. They have failed to have a 1,000 yard rusher since 2012 nor have they produced a PPR RB over RB20 since 2011. Perkins who lost college rushes to a Linebacker has limited upside in the Giants offense.


07/24/17, 11:47 AM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Buffalo Bills

Watkins All The Way Back?


"After the season finale in New York, he said he hoped to avoid surgery, but days later elected to have the procedure done. His rehab appears to be on schedule, as he was able to participate in a few team drills before the Bills wrapped up their spring practices. With six weeks between mandatory minicamp and start of training camp, Watkins should be close to 100 percent when camp starts Thursday."

Fantasy Goo: Watkins has WR1 upside when he is healthy and he is currently being drafted in the third round. Others that have gone through this procedure and have come back to full upside include; Julian Edelman, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones.


07/23/17, 07:00 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: buffalonews.com


Eddie Lacy

Seattle Seahawks

Lacy Loses Weight, Gains Primary Role


“Lacy is the favorite to start over Thomas Rawls, who will still have a role. At a minimum, C.J. Prosise will be the third-down back and a big factor in the passing game.”

Fantasy Goo: In the five games he started last year, Lacy averaged over five yards a carry, all of Rawls value stems from four random, good games he had against weak defenses in 2015. Lacy’s biggest competition is going to come from Prosise. Prosise is a converted from receiver in college and at 6’, 220lbs, has the size-speed combo to take over as the primary back.


07/23/17, 06:56 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.espn.com


Robert Kelley

Washington Redskins

Fat Rob Gets the Nod


Rob Kelley is slated to be the starting RB in Washington, however Perine will still have the opportunity to play a big role in the offense.

Fantasy Goo: Though Perine may be the higher scoring back in 2017, getting a couple early games from Kelley could be very valuable given his low draft cost.


07/23/17, 01:37 PM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: rotoworld.com


Duke Johnson

Cleveland Browns

Duke Johnson In The Slot


As reported by Mary Cay Cabot, Duke Johnson is likely to take over slot WR work from Andrew Hawkins who is now a Patriot. This depends on Josh Gordon's status if he is granted reinstatement in September.

Fantasy Goo: Until we get news on Gordon, Duke Johnson should be in line to see about 50 additional targets in 3 WR sets. This number will likely be allocating among Johnson, Njoku and DeValve.


07/23/17, 01:26 PM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Carson Palmer

Arizona Cardinals

Last Hurrah for Palmer?


"Last year, he kind of came in September, had already worn his arm out by overthrowing all summer," Arians said. "We found a nice regimen, November and December he was playing as good as he’s ever played." After finding the right work-out regimen Palmer was the number 8 QB over the last eight weeks of the season. David Johnson said "his arm is definitely feeling good."

Fantasy Goo: Palmer could be the reason why late-round QB works this year, with an ADP around QB20 Carson has real bounce back potential and is practically free. The stat to watch to indicate 2017 success will be decreasing his league high 137 hits from 2016.


07/22/17, 01:43 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nfl.com


Zach Miller

Chicago Bears

Bears Overload at TE


Miller's contract has one year remaining with a base salary of $1.5 million and the issue the Bears have to tackle is if they can take a chance knowing Miller's durability issues. He has played in 25 games and missed 23 since joining the team in 2014. The only free agent that received more guaranteed money than quarterback Mike Glennon was Dion Sims, who signed an $18 million, three-year contract with $10 million guaranteed, ensuring he will be a big part of Dowell Loggains' offense.

Fantasy Goo: The Bears are five deep at TE right now after drafting Adam Shaheen, acquiring Daniel Brown from Baltimore, and signing UDFA Ben Braunecker. Miller seems like the odd man out here and that’s why he is no longer a late-round flyer in deep leagues. I’ve switched gears to Dion Sims simply because of his athleticism and the Bears investment in him as an every-down TE.


07/22/17, 01:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.chicagotribune.com


Anquan Boldin

Detroit Lions

Boldin Trying Buffalo


Boldin will be working out for the Bills on Monday (7/24) “Boldin, 36, led the Lions with 22 red zone targets last season. He had 67 catches and a career-high eight touchdowns, though he averaged a career-worst 8.7 yards per grab (584 yards in total).” The Bills are looking pretty shallow at WR at this point, they’ll probably be looking to have a few other guys in as well.

Fantasy Goo: This could cut into any upside we were hoping for from Zay Jones, although you could argue that they are much different types of receivers that just happen to both work out of the slot. Boldin will certainly vulture some TD’s from the wide receivers, but it absolutely crushes any chance of Charles Clay having any value and probably snakes away a little of Johnathan Williams receiving potential.


07/22/17, 12:17 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Zay Jones

Buffalo Bills

Jones to Compete for WR2


Zay Jones' and his 399 college reception record could make an immediate impact as he performed favorable to Sterling Shepard in college.

Fantasy Goo: Jones' is many fantasy analysts favorite among rookie WRs in 2017. With the 167 vacated targets among Woods, Goodwin and Hunter, Zay has upside as a fantasy WR3.


07/21/17, 12:35 PM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: prod.www.bills.clubs.nfl.com


Will Tye

New York Giants

Coughlin May Bring Giants to JAX


The Giants have reportedly started shopping Will Tye and Tom Coughlin may be a suitor. If Tye is traded it would convey their plans to use Engram could be immediate.

Fantasy Goo: Although rookie TE's have historically lacked production, Engram is more of a big slot WR. If they move Tye Engram will likely split time in teh slot with Sterling Shepard and could be worth a late round flier after we saw Shepard score 8 TDs in the same position.


07/21/17, 12:26 PM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Geronimo Allison

Green Bay Packers

Geronimo Suspended For Opener


Geronimo Allison is suspended for Week 1 due to violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse.

Fantasy Goo: It is worth noting that Geronimo put up 4 catches for 91 yards and a score Week 17 when Jordy was being shadowed by Darrius Slay. He could be nice DFS play in games Jordy gets shadowed and Cobb or Adams are inactive.


07/21/17, 12:14 PM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Braxton Miller

Houston Texans

Braxton A Breakout WR?


QB Guru George Whitfield thinks Braxton Miller could take a dramatic step forward as a WR

Fantasy Goo: September 7, 2015. That was when Braxton took a direct snap, scrambled left and then put a spin move on the Virginia Tech defense that froze in time and broke Twitter. Miller was an all around stud in college and has Julian Edelman type potential. He could be worth a very late round pick, but keep him on your radar.


07/21/17, 11:25 AM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Todd Gurley

Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley Could See More Targets in 2017


Sean McVay recently went on ESPN LA and talked about Jared Goff's development and how the Rams are looking to get Gurley more work in the passing game.

Fantasy Goo: Not known for his receiving skills, despite Dunbar coming to the Rams in the offseason, Sean McVay will travel by air to get Gurley into open space. McVay know's the O-Line is a work in progress, but Gurley is an animal in the open field.


07/21/17, 11:04 AM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Le'Veon Bellcow To Play On Franchise Tag


Le'Veon Bell reportedly turned down the Steelers 5 year contract that averaged 12 million per year. That number is 50% higher than the next highest paid RB, LeSean McCoy.

Fantasy Goo: This was a ballsy move by Bell, he has stated that he wants to reset the RB market. Adrian Peterson's 2012 was one of the largest RB contracts as he amassed $20.1 million on his base + incentives. Le'Veon Bell is now the #1 player to have in 2017 playing on a contact year under the Franchise tag.


07/21/17, 10:08 AM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Dan Orlovsky

Detroit Lions

Rams Add Veteran QB


The Rams veteran journeyman Dan Orlovsky to backup their promising young QB Jared Goff. Orlovsky is rejoining his OC from his 2005 season in Detroit.

Fantasy Goo: Orlovsky's last effective game was in 2015 when he threw for 191 yards with a TD and an interception. Even if Goff goes down for an extended period of time Orlovsky has never shown the ability to have a fantasy presence.


07/21/17, 09:59 AM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Carlos Henderson Impresses in Broncos OTA’s


"Carlos is a great route-runner," fellow wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders said during OTAs. "He keeps his arms running through the cuts. I’ve been watching film on him and just seeing how he is. He is a technique guy."

Fantasy Goo: This offense has been missing the short-game middle of the field presence in the passing game from a TE or slot receiver. It’s hard to say how many opportunities are there with the QB situation the way it is and two premier receivers on the outside, but this report sounds like they are looking to create opportunities for him, even if it’s on special teams. His metrics profile compares best to Stealing Sheppard.


07/20/17, 06:35 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverbroncos.com


Chris Johnson

Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Re-sign RB Chris Johnson to One-year Contract


This is the perfect situation for everyone involved. Johnson obviously knows the offense, the Cardinals have a solid back-up and can bring their rookie along slowly. Ellington has moved to WR and Kerwynn Williams is comfortable with the offense, but certainly not a solid No.2.

Fantasy Goo:
It doesn’t move the needle for anyone’s value, David Johnson is still the number one or two overall pick and there was no “handcuff” on the radar to begin with. In the four games Chris Johnson was active last year he only did more than spell David in one game, when Arizona crushed Tennessee 40-7.


07/20/17, 04:11 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Mike Williams

Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers First Round Pick Might Need Surgery


Reports on Mike Williams are mixed on whether he’ll need surgery or not for the herniated disk in his back, either way it seems unlikely that he will have anything to contribute this year. It seems like Schefter and Rapoport are having a little pissing contest as to whether Williams will actually need surgery.

Fantasy Goo: Draft Tyrell Williams as your WR3, he’s going after the 10th round right now, but that won’t happen for much longer. Keep Dontrell Inman on your radar, he could be a late round flyer in PPR leagues, with Allen out last year Inman finished with more PPR points than Ginn, Cobb and DeVante Parker.


07/20/17, 03:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Gary Barnidge

Cleveland Browns

Jaguars Meet With Barnidge


“Barnidge was released by Cleveland following this year's NFL Draft. The Browns used a first-round pick on Miami tight end David Njoku, who is set to take on Barnidge's playing time. If the Jaguars were to sign Barnidge, it would be a homecoming for the veteran tight end.”

Fantasy Goo: This means nothing, Barnidge will not have a repeat of his 2015 season. Barnidge is a solid blocking TE that had a spectacular year when there were no other options in the offense. The Jaguars aren’t very adept at using the TE either, Julius Thomas did next to nothing in his two years with the team.


07/20/17, 03:21 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.firstcoastnews.com


Jay Ajayi

Miami Dolphins

Run Anywhere Else


When Jay Ajayi runs to either side of Jermon Bushrod the Dolphins starting right guard (7 or 8 holes) he averaged 2.97 yards per rush. When Jay Ajayi ran on plays designed for any other holes he averaged 6.04 yards per.

Fantasy Goo: Bushrod was clearly the weak link in Miami's line finishing the year with a 43 PFF Player grade. Look for Miami to try to replace him with Kraig Urbik or Jesse Davis once training camps roll in.


07/16/17, 06:11 PM CDT by The Hartbeat

Source: twitter.com

Jordan Howard is overvalued in MFL10s

My Most Overvalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by Stagg Party on 07/13/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Through the course of piling up some MFL10s (mfl10s.com) this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 2,000 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at http://fantasyadhd.com/mfl10_live/ and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.

 

Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are overvalued. These guys aren’t on many of my rosters so feel free to hit that draft button.

 


Jordan Howard – Current ADP #16

While I like Jordan Howard as a top-10 running back enough this season, I think he is being overdrafted in the overall scheme of the draft. Running backs have stormed back after an outside of trend season last year and have an ADP that is much more similar to the days of old. So while I like Jordan Howard’s eighth spot among running backs, I am much more likely to draft a wide receiver when it is time to press submit on Jordan Howard. Howard does possess some reasons to be skeptical however, as he had a fairly unprecedented rookie season as there have been 46 instances in NFL History of RBs with 250 or more attempts averaging over 5.05 yards per carry. The season after domination like that? The average running back lost .82 yards per carry and only three running backs have had a better yards per carry average the next season and they are just some guys named Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk. The Indiana product also dominated against light fronts averaging 6.15 yards per carry with six or fewer men in the box. When defenses stacked the box, with eight or more men in the box, Howard averaged a paltry 2.82 yards per carry. Howard won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season especially with quarterback play by Mike Glennon or rookie Mitch Trubisky. Howard is also expected to lose passing game work to Benny Cunningham or rookie Tarik Cohen, and with the negative game scripts Chicago is sure to be playing with next season, this could be a big loss after seeing 50 targets in his rookie season. The optimists will hope the optometrists did their job with J-How’s eye surgery and say he will find the endzone more with added volume, but Jordan is not without his warts.  

 

 

Leonard Fournette – Current ADP #23 

Leonard Fournette sort of suffers from some of the same things as Jordan Howard, as he is being drafted in a spot at the back of the second round where I’d much rather draft wide receivers. Fourny also doesn’t have the advantage of running behind a great offensive line or coming into the league as an adept pass catcher in the same vein as Ezekiel Elliott. On average, just three rookies a year finish as a top-24 at his position and there are plenty of candidates to not live up to the rookie hype, Fournette just costs the most to acquire, so I will be avoiding unless his price comes down. Brandon Linder played well last season, but the rest of the offensive line has struggled, the addition of Branden Albert could pay off if he stays healthy, but that has been his Achilles heel over the last few years. The Jags will also need to completely retool their offensive mindset, going from an aerial attack to a ground and pound style, which doesn’t happen in just the blink of an eye.

 

 

Tyreek Hill – Current ADP #43

Tyreek Hill is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL and fantasy for this upcoming season, and it has nothing to do with his off-field issues. Hill burst onto the scene in the second half of the season and there was a stretch where he was a top-12 PPR receiver. The team released Jeremy Maclin and it gives a big opportunity to the second year playmaker. The issue with Hill is people are over-projecting and here’s why: they are expecting both more carries and more receptions. In the history of the NFL, there has never been a wide receiver to receive 90 catches and 30 carries in a season. If we are expecting him to take more of a receiving load, then we should be careful on his expectations as a ball carries. As the 42nd player off the board, I’d just rather spend the pick on other players in his range. Hill also averaged just 9.7 yards per reception and with Alex Smith at the helm he is unlikely to suddenly become more of a downfield threat. Smith has never had a receiver with 70 or more targets average more than 12.5 yards per catch while with Kansas City. 


 

Dalvin Cook – Current ADP #53

Dalvin Cook is one of the rookie running backs that everyone is lusting over, and as previously discussed, the number of top players that are rookies really varies per season and everyone loves the shiny new toys. I won’t pound more on his lackluster combine, but I will talk about his competition in the backfield, and the strength of the offensive line. Latavius Murray has proven capable if unspectacular when given opportunities and also scored 12 touchdowns last season. Murray is a great pass protector and coaching notes this offseason have stated that it is the biggest area in which Cook needs to improve. The Florida State product will also have to battle with Jerick McKinnon who when given limited carries has made explosive plays as a runner and a receiver. Without a rugged offensive line in front of him, albeit and improved one, and potential to lose the important touches like redzone carries and receptions, Cook could have a tough time paying off his fifth round ADP.

 


Donte Moncrief – Current ADP #61

Donte Moncrief is a fantasy love child, I am not sure who his daddy is but it has to be someone in the industry. Moncrief has looked like a man-child while in the league, he is big and fast, but still that childishness tends to show on the league, as he has struggled with inconsistency and health so far in his career. Moncrief has seen his yards per catch dip in every season since entering the league and has per game averages of 3.1 catches on 5.1 targets for 36.2 yards. The 16 game pace for that so you don’t have to grab your calculators is: 50 catches on 82 targets for 580 yards. Moncrief’s saving grace has been his ability to score touchdowns, hauling in thirteen of them over the last two seasons. At this stage, projecting Moncrief for 1,000 yards is a big stretch, so lets look at some high touchdown guys who don’t pick up the yards. Since 2005, the receiver with the most touchdowns and under 1,000 yards in a season is James Jones in 2012, when he scored 14. In fact Aaron Rodgers has supported 3 receivers with 12+ touchdowns and under 1,000 yards since 2005, and he is the only quarterback to do so. So if we cap Moncrief at 11 touchdowns and 800 yards we are maybe looking at an upside of WR 24, receivers being drafted behind him have more than that.


 

DeVante Parker – Current ADP #70

DeVante Parker is entering his third year in the league where all receivers break out, I mean it is a fact, a fact that has been disproven over the last few years as spread style offenses have gotten receivers more comfortable in the passing game than ever before. Parker is otherworldly talented and can make tough grabs in contested situations. Unfortunately for Parker though he plays in the most low volume offense in the entire league. The Dolphins are focused on running the ball first and foremost, and then when they go to pass they have a high volume receiver in Jarvis Landry. They also have one of the best deep threats in the league in Kenny Stills who scored nine touchdowns last season. This doesn’t even talk about the redzone where the Dolphins added Julius Thomas who caught 12 touchdown passes in each of his two seasons under Gase in Denver. Tannehill has never thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a season and has seen his attempts per game under Gase shrink. All in all, I am not buying a breakout for Parker and unwilling to spend a mid sixth round pick on him when there are more proven contributors with upside still on the board.

 


Jameis Winston – Current ADP #83

First let me start with this caveat, I think Jameis Winston will be a good fantasy quarterback this year, but he is being drafted to high, just like any QB after the top two tiers off the board, the first one looks the worst. Hell, Matt Ryan is going behind him. Jameis is currently all the rage after the team added D-Jax (A 30-year old speed wide receiver with a history of injuries, hasn’t played a full season since 2013) Chris Godwin (who unfortunately might not see the field as much as he should because of other weapons) and O.J. Howard (rookie tight ends historically don’t do much in their first seasons) this offseason. As the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board I have worries for a quarterback whose team was at their best when he wasn’t asked to throw more, why change a formula that has won you football games? Let’s also play a game of our own, choose between these two quarterbacks and their average seasons over the last two years:

 

Player A: 361/615 58.9% completions. 4,166 yards 29 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, 55 rushes for 334 yards and 2.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Player B: 328/551 59.5% completions, 4067 yards 25 touchdowns to 16.5 interceptions, 52 rushes for 189 yards and 3.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Which Player are you picking, and this doesn’t even factor in cost where player A is going 5 rounds later? Scroll down to the bottom to see whom each player is.

 


Delanie Walker – Current ADP #95

For once, I think tight ends are properly valued. With Gronk around pick 20 and Kelce maybe a tad high at pick 30, the price is right. There is about a tight end a round off the board after them, but suddenly Delanie Walker comes up and a run starts. While I like Walker, his value has been damaged this offseason, not great for a soon-to-be 34 year old tight end who set a new career high in touchdown grabs last season. Walker has so much added competition with Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor added in the draft and expected to make an impact. Not to mention, Johnnu Smith who is also a move tight end and the recent addition of Eric Decker who can play the slot better than Walker. With Anthony Fasano gone, Delanie Walker could be forced to play the in-line tight end position and block more than he has in the past three straight 100-target seasons. With added weaponry and a tweaked roll, Walker could have a hard time surpassing the 100-targets he has become accustomed too and without added touchdowns, which seem far-fetched will have a hard time making up for them. When it comes time to take Walker, I’d rather take a pass and wait a round for the likes of Ertz and the Black Unicorn.

 

 

Player A: Blake Bortles

Player B: Jameis Winston 

 

 

Check out my most undervalued players here. 

 

 

By Stagg Party

 

 

 

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