Offseason
June 19, 2018
Articles
Newsfeeds
SHARE

Newsfeeds

View all + 8529


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jordan Howard is overvalued in MFL10s

My Most Overvalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by Stagg Party on 07/13/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


More Articals

SHARE ON

Through the course of piling up some MFL10s (mfl10s.com) this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 2,000 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at http://fantasyadhd.com/mfl10_live/ and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.

 

Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are overvalued. These guys aren’t on many of my rosters so feel free to hit that draft button.

 


Jordan Howard – Current ADP #16

While I like Jordan Howard as a top-10 running back enough this season, I think he is being overdrafted in the overall scheme of the draft. Running backs have stormed back after an outside of trend season last year and have an ADP that is much more similar to the days of old. So while I like Jordan Howard’s eighth spot among running backs, I am much more likely to draft a wide receiver when it is time to press submit on Jordan Howard. Howard does possess some reasons to be skeptical however, as he had a fairly unprecedented rookie season as there have been 46 instances in NFL History of RBs with 250 or more attempts averaging over 5.05 yards per carry. The season after domination like that? The average running back lost .82 yards per carry and only three running backs have had a better yards per carry average the next season and they are just some guys named Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk. The Indiana product also dominated against light fronts averaging 6.15 yards per carry with six or fewer men in the box. When defenses stacked the box, with eight or more men in the box, Howard averaged a paltry 2.82 yards per carry. Howard won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season especially with quarterback play by Mike Glennon or rookie Mitch Trubisky. Howard is also expected to lose passing game work to Benny Cunningham or rookie Tarik Cohen, and with the negative game scripts Chicago is sure to be playing with next season, this could be a big loss after seeing 50 targets in his rookie season. The optimists will hope the optometrists did their job with J-How’s eye surgery and say he will find the endzone more with added volume, but Jordan is not without his warts.  

 

 

Leonard Fournette – Current ADP #23 

Leonard Fournette sort of suffers from some of the same things as Jordan Howard, as he is being drafted in a spot at the back of the second round where I’d much rather draft wide receivers. Fourny also doesn’t have the advantage of running behind a great offensive line or coming into the league as an adept pass catcher in the same vein as Ezekiel Elliott. On average, just three rookies a year finish as a top-24 at his position and there are plenty of candidates to not live up to the rookie hype, Fournette just costs the most to acquire, so I will be avoiding unless his price comes down. Brandon Linder played well last season, but the rest of the offensive line has struggled, the addition of Branden Albert could pay off if he stays healthy, but that has been his Achilles heel over the last few years. The Jags will also need to completely retool their offensive mindset, going from an aerial attack to a ground and pound style, which doesn’t happen in just the blink of an eye.

 

 

Tyreek Hill – Current ADP #43

Tyreek Hill is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL and fantasy for this upcoming season, and it has nothing to do with his off-field issues. Hill burst onto the scene in the second half of the season and there was a stretch where he was a top-12 PPR receiver. The team released Jeremy Maclin and it gives a big opportunity to the second year playmaker. The issue with Hill is people are over-projecting and here’s why: they are expecting both more carries and more receptions. In the history of the NFL, there has never been a wide receiver to receive 90 catches and 30 carries in a season. If we are expecting him to take more of a receiving load, then we should be careful on his expectations as a ball carries. As the 42nd player off the board, I’d just rather spend the pick on other players in his range. Hill also averaged just 9.7 yards per reception and with Alex Smith at the helm he is unlikely to suddenly become more of a downfield threat. Smith has never had a receiver with 70 or more targets average more than 12.5 yards per catch while with Kansas City. 


 

Dalvin Cook – Current ADP #53

Dalvin Cook is one of the rookie running backs that everyone is lusting over, and as previously discussed, the number of top players that are rookies really varies per season and everyone loves the shiny new toys. I won’t pound more on his lackluster combine, but I will talk about his competition in the backfield, and the strength of the offensive line. Latavius Murray has proven capable if unspectacular when given opportunities and also scored 12 touchdowns last season. Murray is a great pass protector and coaching notes this offseason have stated that it is the biggest area in which Cook needs to improve. The Florida State product will also have to battle with Jerick McKinnon who when given limited carries has made explosive plays as a runner and a receiver. Without a rugged offensive line in front of him, albeit and improved one, and potential to lose the important touches like redzone carries and receptions, Cook could have a tough time paying off his fifth round ADP.

 


Donte Moncrief – Current ADP #61

Donte Moncrief is a fantasy love child, I am not sure who his daddy is but it has to be someone in the industry. Moncrief has looked like a man-child while in the league, he is big and fast, but still that childishness tends to show on the league, as he has struggled with inconsistency and health so far in his career. Moncrief has seen his yards per catch dip in every season since entering the league and has per game averages of 3.1 catches on 5.1 targets for 36.2 yards. The 16 game pace for that so you don’t have to grab your calculators is: 50 catches on 82 targets for 580 yards. Moncrief’s saving grace has been his ability to score touchdowns, hauling in thirteen of them over the last two seasons. At this stage, projecting Moncrief for 1,000 yards is a big stretch, so lets look at some high touchdown guys who don’t pick up the yards. Since 2005, the receiver with the most touchdowns and under 1,000 yards in a season is James Jones in 2012, when he scored 14. In fact Aaron Rodgers has supported 3 receivers with 12+ touchdowns and under 1,000 yards since 2005, and he is the only quarterback to do so. So if we cap Moncrief at 11 touchdowns and 800 yards we are maybe looking at an upside of WR 24, receivers being drafted behind him have more than that.


 

DeVante Parker – Current ADP #70

DeVante Parker is entering his third year in the league where all receivers break out, I mean it is a fact, a fact that has been disproven over the last few years as spread style offenses have gotten receivers more comfortable in the passing game than ever before. Parker is otherworldly talented and can make tough grabs in contested situations. Unfortunately for Parker though he plays in the most low volume offense in the entire league. The Dolphins are focused on running the ball first and foremost, and then when they go to pass they have a high volume receiver in Jarvis Landry. They also have one of the best deep threats in the league in Kenny Stills who scored nine touchdowns last season. This doesn’t even talk about the redzone where the Dolphins added Julius Thomas who caught 12 touchdown passes in each of his two seasons under Gase in Denver. Tannehill has never thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a season and has seen his attempts per game under Gase shrink. All in all, I am not buying a breakout for Parker and unwilling to spend a mid sixth round pick on him when there are more proven contributors with upside still on the board.

 


Jameis Winston – Current ADP #83

First let me start with this caveat, I think Jameis Winston will be a good fantasy quarterback this year, but he is being drafted to high, just like any QB after the top two tiers off the board, the first one looks the worst. Hell, Matt Ryan is going behind him. Jameis is currently all the rage after the team added D-Jax (A 30-year old speed wide receiver with a history of injuries, hasn’t played a full season since 2013) Chris Godwin (who unfortunately might not see the field as much as he should because of other weapons) and O.J. Howard (rookie tight ends historically don’t do much in their first seasons) this offseason. As the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board I have worries for a quarterback whose team was at their best when he wasn’t asked to throw more, why change a formula that has won you football games? Let’s also play a game of our own, choose between these two quarterbacks and their average seasons over the last two years:

 

Player A: 361/615 58.9% completions. 4,166 yards 29 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, 55 rushes for 334 yards and 2.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Player B: 328/551 59.5% completions, 4067 yards 25 touchdowns to 16.5 interceptions, 52 rushes for 189 yards and 3.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Which Player are you picking, and this doesn’t even factor in cost where player A is going 5 rounds later? Scroll down to the bottom to see whom each player is.

 


Delanie Walker – Current ADP #95

For once, I think tight ends are properly valued. With Gronk around pick 20 and Kelce maybe a tad high at pick 30, the price is right. There is about a tight end a round off the board after them, but suddenly Delanie Walker comes up and a run starts. While I like Walker, his value has been damaged this offseason, not great for a soon-to-be 34 year old tight end who set a new career high in touchdown grabs last season. Walker has so much added competition with Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor added in the draft and expected to make an impact. Not to mention, Johnnu Smith who is also a move tight end and the recent addition of Eric Decker who can play the slot better than Walker. With Anthony Fasano gone, Delanie Walker could be forced to play the in-line tight end position and block more than he has in the past three straight 100-target seasons. With added weaponry and a tweaked roll, Walker could have a hard time surpassing the 100-targets he has become accustomed too and without added touchdowns, which seem far-fetched will have a hard time making up for them. When it comes time to take Walker, I’d rather take a pass and wait a round for the likes of Ertz and the Black Unicorn.

 

 

Player A: Blake Bortles

Player B: Jameis Winston 

 

 

Check out my most undervalued players here. 

 

 

By Stagg Party

 

 

 

Become a Pyro Pro+

 

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

Follow us on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/pyroman1ac

Become a Pyro Pro: http://bit.ly/1K5Af4R