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February 25, 2018
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Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11


The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.


02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left


New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.


02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz


Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.


02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids


The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.


02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs


The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.


02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Pickups After Week 5 - Waiver Wire

Pickups After Week 5 - Waiver Wire

Posted by d-Rx on 10/07/12

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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pickups and drops after week 5

 

 

Pickups After Week 5 - Waiver Wire

 

 

Alex Green - RB – Packers – Green saw his first major action of the season after Cedric Benson left with a foot injury.  Green looked pretty capable, carrying the ball 9 times for 55 yards and had a reception for another 8.  It is not known how bad the injury is to Cedric Benson, but it would appear that Green is ready step in as the starter if Benson can’t go.  Green has dynamic ability for a large back at 225 pounds.  He showed that ability with a 41 yard run in the 4th quarter of a tight game.  If Green gets the chance to start, he could be a decent flex option as he has value in the passing game.  Either way, with his performance he is going to see more attempts, especially if Benson is not 100%.

 


Rashard Mendenhall – RB – Steelers
– Mendenhall sure proved that he is back and ready to play football with his 101 total yard performance including a TD.  He looked quick and had a burst going through the line that we did not see out of him last season when he was healthy.  He also had 2 receptions, which shows he is ready to become a 3 down back for the Steelers.  Redman and Dwyer both showed that they are not ready for the lead role in this offense and Mendenhall just took it back with authority this week.

 


Kirk Cousins - QB – Redskins
– Cousins came in for RGIII after he was knocked out of the game on a hard hit along the sideline by Sean Weatherspoon.  RGIII was diagnosed with a concussion and also received stitches from the hit.  Cousins came in and hit Santana Moss on a huge 77 yard TD pass, but was not very effective after that play as he threw 2 INT.  The injury to RGIII is being called a mild concussion and the Redskins hope to have him back next week, but he will have to pass the baseline concussion tests before he will be allowed to play.  If RGIII is unable to go Cousins is an option if you are in a deep league, but he would have a tough match-up next week against the Vikings.

 


William Powell - RB – Cardinals
– Powell is the primary backup to Ryan Williams while Beanie Wells remains out until week 12.  Ryan Williams has not looked very good since he became the starter and showed again this past week with 33 yards on 14 carries.  Williams currently has a 2.8 yards per carry average and is going to start losing carries to Powell.  If Powell is able to step in and be effective with his opportunity, then he could steal the job away, especially if the Cardinals keep playing so well.

 

*** UPDATE ***    Ryan Williams needs surgery on his injured left shoulder and will be out for the remainder of the season!  Basically, Powell won't need to steal the job at all. It's already his. Grab him immediately.

 


Rueben Randle - WR – Giants
– Randle had a very nice game on Sunday in the shadow of Victor Cruz and his 3 TD grabs.  Randle ended up leading the Giants in receptions and yards with 6-82 and was targeted 9 times in the game.  The fact is that the Giants receiving corps is continually banged up and Randle has steadily made his way up the depth chart as the others continue to miss practice and game time.  After his performance this week he is going to gain the trust of the coaching staff and more importantly he has gained the trust of Eli. 

 


Robert Meachem - WR – Chargers –
Meachem finally arrived for the Chargers this week and all it took was a return to his former digs in the Superdome.  Meachem had 2 first half TD grabs including a 44 yard grab.  It appears that Meachem and Rivers are finally starting to gel, which is great news for both of these players’ fantasy prospects.  Meachem is still going to be an inconsistent fantasy player, but as he showed on Sunday Night he can go off for a big game.

 


Josh Gordon - WR – Browns
– Gordon made his presence known in Week 5 with TD receptions of 62 and 20 yards.  Those were the only 2 catches on the day for the rookie, but he took advantage of his first real opportunity this season.  Gordon has a ton of ability, but he is going to be a feast or famine type of a player.  He should continue to see more opportunities going forward and the Browns are going to be down in most of their games this season and will be in need of big plays on offense. 

 


Dwayne Allen - TE – Colts
– Allen is becoming the TE that Andrew Luck is targeting in the redzone, not Coby Fleener.  Allen had a TD on Sunday which is the 2nd in the past 3 weeks for the rookie.  Allen is not going to get you a lot of yards, but if you are in a TD league then Allen has a lot more value. 

 


Chris Givens & Brian Quick - WRs – Rams
– Danny Amendola is going to be out for 6-7 weeks with a separated clavicle so both Givens and Quick have an opportunity to step in and see a lot more targets.  Givens seems to be ahead of Quick on the depth chart and had a huge 51-yard TD grab last week.

 

 

Steve Smith - WR – Rams – Givens and Quick should certainly see an uptick in targets, as will Austin Pettis, but Steve Smith is the one likely to replace Amendola in the slot and could quickly become Bradford's new favorite target. In PPR leagues, Smith could be the one to grab here.

 

 

Jahvid Best - RB – Lions  & Vincent Brown - WR – Chargers – Both Best and Brown are going to be available very soon as Best can be activated after Week 6 and Brown after Week 8. Even better is that both are tentatively expected to be ready to go immediately.  These guys have a lot of skill and could be big factors once they return.  This is a foreshadowing to you to remember these players are out there and if you can stash the spot on your bench, then you may want to grab one of these guys before they come back and are in demand.

 

 

Jamie Harper - RB – Titans – Harper is long shot flyer if you are in a real deep league.  Javon Ringer went down with what looked to be a serious injury as he was carted off the field and as we have seen all season, Chris Johnson has been very ineffective.  Harper may get to see some chances and as I said, he is really only worth looking at in the deepest of leagues, but with Ringer now expected to be out for 4-6 weeks with a torn MCL, you never know.

 

 

 

Read our Pickups after week 4: 

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/pickups-after-week-4-waiver-wire

 

Read our Pickups after week 3:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/pickups-drops-after-week-3-waiver-wire

  

Read our Pickups after week 2:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/pickups-drops-week-2-waiver-wire 

 

Read our Pickups after week 1:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/2012-fantasy-football-pickups-drops-after-week-1 

 

 

 

BY HOUDINI (email me)