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February 25, 2018
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Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11


The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.


02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left


New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.


02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz


Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.


02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids


The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.


02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs


The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.


02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Pickups & Drops After Week 3 - Waiver Wire

Pickups & Drops After Week 3 - Waiver Wire

Posted by d-Rx on 09/23/12

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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pickups after week 3

 

 

Pickups After Week 3

 

 

Mikel Leshoure – RB Lions – If you did not grab him last week you better act quickly if he is still on your waiver wire or free agent list.  The Lions went to Leshoure early and often as he carried the ball 26 times for 100 yards and added 34 more on 4 receptions.  He is clearly the lead back for the Lions going forward and with the weapons on the outside he should be able to put up nice numbers. 

 


Jeremy Kerley – WR Jets – Kerley is an interesting player for the Jets.  He had 2 catches for 73 yards and a TD in week 3 versus the Dolphins.  Kerley now has 2 TD grabs through 3 weeks of the season and could be in line for more targets.  Jets rookie WR Stephen Hill left the game with a hamstring injury and could be iffy this week.  That might be all the time Kerley needs to step in and take a bigger role in the offense.  Kerley is also a kick and punt returner, so he has extra chances to score.

 

 

Heath Miller – TE Steelers – Miller is that old comfortable blanket that have not used in over a year, but once you get it out you remember why you like it.  Miller had 8 grabs for 60 yards and 2 TD and was that old comfortable blanket once again for Big Ben.  Miller is going to be an active part of the offense the rest of the season, but he is still not a threat for a lot of yards after the catch, but he is a threat to score a TD in the redzone.  It looks like the Heath Miller of 2009 could be back in Pittsburgh. 

 

 

Ramses Barden – WR Giants – Barden stepped onto the scene in a big way on Thursday Night Football with 9 catches for 138 yards.  This was a very important performance for Barden, who saw extra playing time with the injury to Hakeem Nicks, to make his statement on the WR3 position for the Giants.  Barden should be seeing more playing time than Ruben Randle and Domink Hixon after this week.  His real value though is as a handcuff to Nicks or Cruz owners as an injury to one of them raises his stock.

 

 

T.Y. Hilton – WR Colts – Hilton was the flavor of the day for the Colts passing game this week as he notched 4 catches for 113 yards and a TD.  Hilton was targeted 8 times in the game and showed his speed and quickness with his 28.5 yards per catch average.  Hilton should be in line for more opportunities as Austin Collie may be done for the season with a knee injury suffered on his only catch of the game.  The problem is that Hilton is not a player that will give you consistent stats, but he is always a threat once he gets the ball in his hands.

 

 

Tashard Choice – RB Bills – Choice is a name you know as the guy who could not cut it with Cowboys, but he is getting a second chance with the Bills and the injury this week to CJ Spiller.  Spiller left the game with a separated shoulder and Choice stepped in and ran 20 times for 91 yards and added 2 receptions for 8 yards.  The Bills have shown that their offensive line can open up holes for any of their running backs and Choice is going to be the guy, for at least next week.  We need to see how bad the injury is to Spiller and there is a possibility they may try to get Fred Jackson back sooner as well.  If you own Jackson or Spiller then you should grab Choice.   

 

 

Jacquizz Rodgers – RB Falcons – It was made clear this week that the Falcons intend to spread the ball around in the backfield more than in years past.  Rodgers had 10 carries on the game and added 5 receptions in the passing game and finished with 67 total yards and a receiving TD.  Michael Turner had his best game of the season and that could have been due to fresher legs with Rodgers spelling him more than in the first 2 games this season.  Rodgers is also going to be used a lot more in the passing game, so expect to see more of Rodgers as the season goes on. 

 

 

Lamar Miller – RB Dolphins – Reggie Bush went down with a knee injury at the end of the first half and that left Miller and Daniel Thomas to carry the load for the Dolphins.  Miller was the most effective running the ball with 48 yards on 9 carries.  Thomas got the bulk of the carries with 19, but for the second week in a row Miller is showing he is the more effective runner.  The injury to Bush is not considered serious, but he will have an MRI on Monday to confirm.  If Miller’s current play continues expect him to see an increase in his workload next week and going forward. 

 

 

Shaun Hill – QB Lions – Stafford left the game in the 4th quarter with a strained leg muscle, and we will find out more on the severity of the injury tomorrow.  If Stafford is out and you own him and need a backup then you should target Hill.  Hill, as we saw at the end of regulation and in overtime was looking for Calvin Johnson a lot and has been in this offense for some time and in the league forever.  He is only a stop gap pick up. 

 

 

Jerome Simpson – WR Vikings – Simpson will be coming off his 3 game suspension and looks like he could be heading into a good situation.  Harvin is the clear cut #1 and Kyle Rudolph has become the #2 target in the passing offense, but no one has emerged as the 3rd option.  Simpson has the best skills of the remaining receivers and he may have been forgotten about due to his suspension.  Simpson should be see favorable matchups and with the maturation of Ponder, Simpson could be a steal. 

 

 

Read our Pickups after week 2:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/pickups-drops-week-2-waiver-wire 

 

Read our Pickups after week 1:

http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/2012-fantasy-football-pickups-drops-after-week-1 

 

 

by Houdini