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February 24, 2018
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Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11


The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.


02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left


New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.


02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz


Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.


02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids


The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.


02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs


The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.


02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2014 Preseason #FF Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2014 Preseason #FF Preview

Posted by d-Rx on 07/28/14

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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pittsburgh steelers #FF preview 2014

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2014 Preseason #FF Preview


 

“Halfway between Erie and Pittsburgh/ You’re putting me through hell/ On the highway to the Bittersweet Motel”.

 

 

This poignant line from a Phish song relates to fantasy and the Steelers. In particular, the oxymoron bittersweet can apply to owning a Pittsburgh player on your fantasy team. It can have its ups and downs. For starters, let’s take their QB, whom d-Rx® lovingly named Ben Accosthisfurberger.

 

Surprisingly enough, when the fantasy dust settled after last season, ole Ben came in as the 10th best fantasy quarterback. He threw a touchdown pass in every single game last year, and actually threw for at least 300 yards on five separate occasions. That is more 300 yard games than Russell Wilson (2) and Colin Kaepernick (2) combined. By the way, both of those guys finished just ahead of Ben in total scoring for a fantasy QB.  Those are the games when it is sweet to start Accosthisfurberger. Then again, there are the bitter moments when a cold wind doth blow across your computer screen after discovering he only managed to put up a single digit; this is something he did 3 times last year while scoring in the low teens on several other outings.  Perhaps his total numbers look good on the whole, but on a per-game basis, he is middle of the pack. Ben ranked 16th among fantasy quarter backs for points per game. Romo, ranked 9th, averaged only 1 more point per game. This is why you can wait on QBs.  There is little difference between their performances once you get past the first two tiers, as this per-game stat attests. Personally, I want a top tier QB, their average is far and above the rest at the position. After that, the pool is fairly similar. So, if you cannot lock up a Peyton or a Rodgers caliber player, I am playing the waiting game. There is little difference between guys like Ben and Tannehill, except, the latter is going 3 rounds after Ben and has far greater upside.

 

Looking at Le’Veon Bell, all we have to go on is his rookie season. On the whole, he averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game. He missed the first three due to injury that was rumored to be the dreaded Lisfranc.


 

lisfranc injury

 

Although the injury was not as severe as first feared, it undoubtedly hampered his performance. In fact, looking at his last 3 games, he averaged close to 17.1 fantasy points per game. In 13 total games played last year, Bell ran for 860 yards, gained 408 additional yards from the pass, and totaled 8 TDs. This trend should continue. Pittsburgh will be going back to more of a run heavy offense. Some fear that newly acquired LeGarrette Blount will eat into Bell’s production. The fact that head coach Mike Tomlin wants to run the ball more should counter the Blount acquisition. Bell should still see 20 touches per game with the increased focus on the run. Tomlin used Bell in the red zone religiously. The Steelers, when inside the opponent’s 20 yard line, gave Bell the rock 37 times. In fact, all 8 of his touchdowns came from within the red zone. Bell has fantastic vision and patience; he uses his blockers to let the play develop. He is a powerful back. In 2013, there were only 18 running backs that had at least 20 broken tackles or more. Bell makes this list with 21. Keep in mind he only played 13 games last year. I expect Bell will score 3 or 4 receiving TDs this year as well.


 

 

While I love Bell in touchdown only leagues, there are some tendencies that may not translate to fantasy success in standard scoring. To begin, he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Worse yet, he was only able to gain 2.1 yards after contact. These are not the only indicators of mediocrity. He does not have breakaway speed. His longest rush all year was 43 yards. In 10 of his 13 games played, Bell’s longest rush was 15 yards or less. He grounds it out. In leagues that award for long TDs, Bell’s ranking takes a major hit. So again, this is why the Pyro boys stress knowing your league. Check out the podcast on just this topic.


 

 

 

 

If you have not checked out ”Power in Numbers”, this piece by Suits will change the way you think about fantasy. Reading it will give you an epiphany similar to the one from the film The Usual Suspects: when Verbal Kint, Kevin Spacey’s character, limps out of the police station and gets into the getaway car, it dawns on you at that exact moment… Holy Moses, it was Keyser Soza the whole time!... Alright, maybe it is not as mind blowing as that, but it’s right up there.

 


PLEASE READ: http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/power-in-numbers-2013-season-in-review

 


Essentially the piece looked at the top 60 performers from fantasy, and discovered some interesting correlations. Mainly, there were a select number of teams that had multiple guys make the list. The Steelers, for example, had 3 players on the list of the top 60 fantasy performers from last year: Ben Accosthisfurberger (#13), Antonio Brown (#34), and Le’Veon Bell (#45).

 

 

 


Antonio Brown had the 4th most targets of all wide receivers with 165. He managed to snag 66.7% of those for 110 receptions. If you ranked the top 100 guys with the most targets in the league from 2013, only 16 other guys were as efficient at catching passes as Brown. Here is the kicker, of the 17 players whose catch rate was above 66%, only 4 guys (Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, Doug Baldwin, and Julio Jones) were targeted further down the field than Brown. His average pass per target was 9.8 yards. In other words, Antonio Brown has an amazing chance of catching passes thrown to him, and he is targeted a lot farther down the field than most receivers who boast such a high catch rate. That translates to points in yardage leagues and PPR. Without Emmanuel Sanders, Brown should see a larger percentage of passes come his way. Not only that, only 24.2% of Brown’s fantasy value came from touchdowns. The fact is, touchdowns are too hard to predict from year to year. One season, a guy may get into the end zone with ease, the very next year, it can be a struggle. When looking at value, yardage is a far more reliable indicator. Guys that scare me are the ones that have a high percentage of their value attached to scoring. For example, Jerricho Cotchery scored 120.2 fantasy points last year.  49.9% of his points came from touchdowns. His success was primarily dependant on crossing the goal line. You can find these numbers for 250 players on Pyro’s “Touchdown Dependency” Chart, available on the newest version of our draft kit.

 

 

PICK UP A COPY OF OUR DRAFT KIT: http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/2014-pyro-ff-draft-kit-v2

 


You want to draft guys that get their points from yardage, not touchdowns. In a recent Pyro article, EC examined total value. He compared receptions, yardage, touchdowns, and targets. He wanted to discover which was a better indicator of fantasy success. “The biggest thing that jumps out is that the correlation to yards is by far the strongest”. For a better understanding of this, take a free look at what EC came up with.

 


PLEASE READ: http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/extending-the-play-correlations-in-standard-scoring

 


While I do love Antonio Brown, he has only proven it once, and it will be tough to repeat last year’s breakout numbers. In fact, he makes Pyro’s bust list this year. As always, it depends on value. I see no problem with taking him in the 3rd round. His catch rate, plus the fact he runs longer routes is just too hard to ignore.

 

Other receivers to note: Lance Moore and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers have a tough schedule this year. They have the 27th easiest schedule for wide receivers. Last year Moore only caught 37 passes for 457 yards and 2 TDs. If you think that’s bad, Markus Wheaton only grabbed 6 for 64 yards.  I can’t see wasting a roster spot on either.

 

 

As far as the tight end position, this year provides a wealth of talent. Unfortunately, none of it is contained in the body of Heath Miller. He will be playing in his 10th season. He only managed one TD in 2013. While he looks healthy, there are far too many other options out there at the position.

 

There has been a great deal of press lately about the once vaunted Steelers defense. A big push has been made to construct a younger team, there was an impression, two years ago, they had become too old to really live up to their name. In 2012, they had the oldest starting defense in the NFL. Well, they may have addressed that particular problem. While the Steelers are indeed younger, they are not any better. Even if you employ a defense by committee, there will be better options on the waiver wire. Gone are the days of the Steel Curtain.

 

 

 

By Mo