March 19, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler




Posted by d-Rx on 12/22/12

by   The Archer


More Articals


shock & awe





There are players every year in Fantasy that are undervalued on draft day and become the biggest values of the draft.  If you were lucky enough to draft one of these players, or picked them up early off of waivers, then you probably enjoyed a nice regular season and could still be alive for your league’s championship game.  These players range from those that were top-notch talents that regained form, to veterans who finally broke out and some stellar rookies, but the common denominator is that they were all steals on draft day or off the waiver wire. 


In this article I am going to examine these players from where their average draft position (from FFToolbox) was to how they produced and won games for their owners in Fantasy.  The scoring system that I am using in this article is the standard scoring system from ESPN.  Hopefully in this discussion of these players it will shed some light on how you view players like this in next year’s draft.


 RGIII pyro character

RG III (ADP 84)What can you say about RG III and the season he has had other than it has been an amazing ride for the rookie.  RG III is the 4th highest scoring quarterback on the season and he wasted no time in letting the world know he was taking it by storm.  RG III began the season scoring at least 20 points in 6 of his first 7 games.  RG III finished the season to this point with 8 games over 20 points, including 3 games in which he scored over 30 points.  For a quarterback that was going in the middle of the 8th round in drafts he was able to catapult those teams to fast starts with his amazing performance out of the gate.  RG III showed everyone that he can throw and run the ball with extreme effectiveness and showed the poise of a veteran with the performances he had in weeks 11-12 where he posted 32 and 28 points respectively.  The only problem that RG III had was no being on the field for his owners in week 15, which is disappointing, but the fact is you would not have gotten that far if it was not for RG III.


 peyton manning pyro character

Peyton Manning (ADP 59.5)Manning made everyone who passed him over on draft day pay the price in a big way.  Peyton Manning had not been drafted this low in a draft (when healthy) since his rookie season.  Manning had 7 games on the year where he posted more than 20 points.  Manning seemed to falter in week 2 where he scored 7 points, but he followed that up with 5 straight games over 20 points.  Manning had 7 games on the season where he threw for 3 TD passes and only had 3 games in which he threw for only 1 TD.  Manning was also a model of consistency for his owners with only one week in which he failed to score double digits and that was back in week 2.  Manning has let his owners down a bit here in the playoffs as his Broncos have mounted nice leads and the team was leaning on the run, but you had to be a happy owner if you had Peyton this season.


adrian peterson pyro character 

Adrian Peterson (ADP 21.6)It is fitting that I discuss AP after Manning, as they will be duking it out for the MVP and Comeback Player of the Year awards.   Peterson was going in the early 3rd round and was the 9th running back taken based on ADP.  Peterson was coming off a bad injury and there was concern that he would have lost a step, and he may have for his first 5 games.  He averaged 10 points a game and had a high game of 20 points, which came in week 1.  Over his last 9 games Peterson has been insane with 6 games over 20 points and averaged 22 points a game during that span.  Then there is the fact that he has dominated the Fantasy playoffs with 83 points over his last 3 games.  He has scored 28, 28 and 27 points!!!  Peterson has been more dominant than he has ever been and still has a chance to get to 2,000 yards so expect him to close out strong in your Championship game.


 muscle hamster - doug martin pyro character

Doug Martin (ADP 42.8)The Muscle Hamster was the second running back taken in the NFL draft this season and in many rookie dynasty drafts, which just proves sometimes it is better to not have to make the tough decision.  Martin had a slow stat, which can now be attributed to his team figuring out their identity and finally realizing that LeGarrette Blount has no business carrying the ball.  Martin made his impact on the season in week 6, which started a 7-week double-digit scoring streak.  During that streak Martin flat out won you weeks 8 and 9 when he torched the Vikings for 32 points and the Raiders for 51 points.   Although, as happens to some rookies, he slowed down when you have needed him the most.  Over the past 3 weeks he has totaled 29 points with a 9, 18 and a 2 point performance, which was the only downside to this rookies impressive season.


 alfred morris pyro character

Alfred Morris (ADP Undrafted)That brings us to the most consistent rookie to tote the rock this year.  Alfred Morris truly beat all odds to become the 7th ranked Running Back this season.  Morris started the season behind Roy Helu and Evan Royster and with the fickle Mike Shanahan, most people in our business were warning against any of these running backs.  Then Roy Helu and went down with a season ending injury and Royster was not 100% and Morris took advantage of the opportunity and never looked back.  Morris has had 10 double-digit games on the season and had 2 games with more than 20 points.  The most impressive thing that Morris has done this year is avoid hitting the rookie wall and he looks even stronger now than he did at the beginning of the season.  Morris has not had less than 22 carries a game over his last 4 and has responded by scoring 63 points during that time.  Morris was undrafted and helped stabilize any team that picked him up.


 marshawn lynch - beast mode - pyro character

Marshawn Lynch (ADP 26.3)Lynch was amazing down the stretch last season as he was in BEAST mode.  Then as this season approached there was a potential suspension for a DUI he was facing and was dealing with some minor injuries, but he slid all the down to the 12th running back taken according to ADP.  Lynch got off to a slow start with only 2 double-digit games in his 6.  Then Lynch hit his stride and has had double-digit points in 7 of his last 8 games.  Lynch has paid huge dividends for his owners over the past 3 weeks where he has posted 13, 30 and 18 points.  Lynch signed a big contract in the offseason and after a slow start he has not disappointed and it is clear that he will be on people’s radar next season. 


 ben jarvis green-ellis pyro character

Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis (ADP 66.7)The Law Firm was not high on anyone’s draft sheet this season and with good reason, as he had not had a 100-yard rushing game in his career with Patriots.  Green-Ellis was the 22nd running back taken according to ADP and is the 13th ranked running back at this time. The Law Firm had a strong start to the season with a 15 and 10 point performance the first 2 weeks, but followed that up with a mere 27 points over his next 5 games.  The Law Firm has collected double-digit points in 5 of his last 7 games and has managed to have four 100-yard rushing games this season.  While he was not as dominant as the other running backs on this list, The Law Firm has made me and many others pay attention and he will not slip this far next season.


 brandon marshall pyro character

Brandon Marshall (ADP 30.9)Marshall was one of our big predictions heading into this season and Marshall did not disappoint.  Marshall has 9 double-digit point games on the season and topped 20 points 3 times on the year.  Marshall caught a TD in 8 games this season and scored even more points in PPR leagues.  Still in the standard format, with no bonus for receptions, Marshall is the #1 receiver on the year.  Marshall had some monster games this season with 4 games with 10 catches or more and 4 games with over 138 yards receiving.  Marshall was the most consistent receiver on the season from start to finish.


vincent jackson pyro character 

Vincent Jackson (ADP 59.7)Vincent Jackson was one of the biggest surprises this season.  Jackson went from San Diego to Tampa Bay to a situation that most thought was going to be a Fantasy nightmare in the run happy and quarterback weak offense of the Buccaneers.  Instead, Jackson is having his best season as professional and already has surpassed his previous career high yardage total and is within 8 catches of reaching 70 for the first time in his career.  Jackson has had 7 games with double-digit games and is the 4th ranked wide receiver, although he has faltered down the stretch with 3 of his last 4 games going for less than 10 points.  Jackson has still truly outperformed his ADP and has made a believer out of me. 


reggie wayne pyro character 

Reggie Wayne (ADP 77.9)Wayne was high on our draft boards this year and he backed us up and benefited his owners who grabbed him in the 8th round.  Wayne started the season very strong scoring 61 points in the first 4 games with a low score of 13.  Wayne was as hot as he could be and then he cooled off.  The problem for Wayne was the emergence of T.Y. Hilton, the development of Andrew Luck and seeing more double coverage after his fast start.  Wayne has had 2 double-digit games in his last 4, but laid a 1-point stinker in week 15.  The wide receiver position is one that is not a consistent point producer and Wayne produced more than he didn’t.   



Randall Cobb (ADP 144.2) – Cobb was a true draft steal going early in the 15th round of drafts.  Cobb truly led many teams to the playoffs after a slow start. The first 5 weeks of the season Cobb only scored 25 points and had a high game of 13 points in week 1.  Then Cobb was discovered in the Green Bay offense and he was dominating as a receiver posting 5 double-digit games in his next 6 totaling 70 points.  Cobb has posted 100-yard games the last 2 weeks.  Cobb has become the favorite target of Aaron Rodgers and is going to be a hot commodity next season.



Cecil Shorts (ADP Undrafted) – Shorts was undrafted in most leagues and was proving to be a boom or bust guy early in the season.  Shorts went for 13, 0, 14, 0 and 4 points in his first 5 games.  Shorts then had double-digit points in 7 of his next 9 games with 96 points scored.  Shorts was the only effective receiver in the first half of the season and he produced even better once Blaine Gabbert was replaced.  Shorts is the 17th ranked receiver on the season was a steady producer all season on a horrible team.  It will be interesting to see how well he performs next season with a healthy MJD and a quarterback who can throw the ball.


 t.y. hilton pyro character

T.Y. Hilton (ADP Undrafted) – Hilton falls into 2 categories as an undrafted rookie who burst on the scene and helped owners steal some victories this season.  Hilton is the 25th ranked receiver on the season and he did most of his damage from week 9 on.  Hilton had to work his way into more playing time early with the Colts and was making some early splashes, but was not heavily targeted.  Hilton then blew up with 5 double-digit games in his last 7.  The biggest improvement in Hilton’s performance was the fact that he was being targeted for TD passes as he has had 5 in his last 7 games, including one last week in the all important semi-final games.  Hilton is a receiver that I am really a big fan of and is the new prototypical slot receiver who can be moved all over the field and can stretch the defense as well.  He could break out even more next year.




Heath Miller (ADP Undrafted) – Miller is the 3rd ranked tight end in standard scoring leagues and he went undrafted in most drafts.  It is not surprising that he went undrafted as the tight end position has gotten better and better over the years and Miller seemed to have already hit his ceiling and then he bursts back onto the scene this year in a big way.  Miller has been a streaky player with flashes of greatness, like his first 3 weeks scoring 36 points, and streaks of shit, like weeks 9-12 scoring 16 points.  If you were smart enough to ride out that poor streak then you benefited over the last 3 weeks with 36 points including a 15-point performance in weeks 13 and 15.  It will be interesting to see how this year’s performance effects his draft position next season. 



Tony Gonzalez (ADP 96.8) – The ageless one, Tony G, continues to impress and is just a flat out old school football player.  Gonzalez is the #1 ranked tight end on the season because he can stay healthy and puts up points at home and on the road.  Gonzalez started out the season with 4 double-digit games in his first 5 scoring 62 points.  Then Gonzalez went into a funk with only 1 double-digit game in his next 6, but he did probably win you week 10 when he put up 24 points.  Down the stretch when you need him he has not let you down with 27 points over the last 3 weeks and double-digit games in weeks 13 and 15. 



Brandon Myers (ADP Undrafted) – Myers is the 9th ranked tight end on the season and he did it by being a consistent threat throughout the year.  Myers was making a steady 5 catches for about 65 yards through the first 7 weeks, but he was not finding the endzone.  Then Myers and Palmer seemed to be in each other’s heads for the next five games where he posted 4 TD catches. The problem for Myers was the inconsistent offense of the Raiders and he really let his owners down the last 2 weeks posting 1 measly point.  You have to remember that he was undrafted and he really helped your team if you picked him up, and there is a bright upside for him next season and he will still fall in drafts, is my prediction. 



Greg Olsen (ADP 135.3) – Olsen showed everyone this season why he was drafted in the first round by the Bears back in 2007. Olsen is easily enjoying his best season in the NFL and has been a more of a bigger threat this season.  Olsen posted 4 double-digit games on the season and each of those happen to be the games in which he caught a TD pass.  Those big performances led him to be the 6th ranked tight end on the season.  Olsen has the ability to make a game out of one catch, which he did in week 13 with his only catch being a 47-yard TD.  Olsen will be moving up draft charts next season and it will be interesting to see if they increase his targets in Cam Newton’s third season. 



Dennis Pitta (ADP Undrafted) – Pitta was projected to finish behind Ed Dickson, the other tight end in Baltimore, before the season, but Pitta is the man now.  Pitta was undrafted this year and started the season hot with a 13-point game.  Those who jumped to picked him up were not burned by the early good game, like those who picked up Kevin Ogletree were, even though it seemed like it from weeks 4-9 when he totaled a mere 11 points.  Then when you needed him most he has gotten 4 double-digit games over his last 6, including a 24-point performance last week in your semi-final games, which probably put you over the top, and you have a good match-up for your Championship game against a Giants defense that has had problems against tight ends. 



Jason Witten (ADP 77.4) – My final player is one that fell in drafts, which was to be expected, due to having his spleen removed weeks before the season started.  Witten weathered the storm of the first 3 weeks, where he posted 6 points before breaking out in week 4 with 17 points against the Chicago Bears.  From that point on Witten became his consistent self, getting a lot of targets, receptions and yards; including an 18 catch 167-yard game against the Giants in week 8.  The biggest problem for Witten was the lack of TD production with 2 on the year, although he helped you out last week with his second. 



All of these players helped you make a big run this year if you were lucky enough to grab one of them.  If you grabbed 2 or more then you may just want to contact us about a potential job, unless the league you were in was filled with morons.  This is the key to any Fantasy season, and the undrafted players are the reason why your season is never over and you just need to stay active and be ready to make a move.  This list included a wide range of players, from young to old and high draft picks to undrafted players, which proves that in order to win in Fantasy you need to have a plan from the start of the draft to the end and then another for when shit goes wrong. 




By Houdini