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May 23, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray are the cover of the 2016 NFL Snap Counts Year End Report graphic

Snap Counts 2016 Year End Report

Posted by d-Rx on 03/01/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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TIME IS MONEY

 

Aloha and welcome to my segment. Today I'm taking you to Snap City where we will break down some quick notes and observations regarding players Snap Counts. Because, let's face it fellas you can't score unless your cleats are on the playing field. By no means is this a "bible" for your draft day, however taking a sharper look at this statistic might give us some hints and thus knowledge and let's face it knowledge is power.  More and more matchups are ending on Monday nights and sometimes by a fraction of a point; you can never have too many data points. Pyromaniac hits it harder and stronger than the others...Not to mention your League buddies are Fishing, Hunting, Golfing, scouting NCAA Bracket teams and preparing for MLB Fantasy Drafts. Now is the time to continue to hit hard as the other Owners are asleep at the wheel. Pyromaniac continues to provide you with that slight advantage that only true due diligence can provide. Light fuse get away, and fire it up, because Time is Money!

 


QUARTERBACKS

 

It's interesting to see that the Top 20 QB's all played over 90% of their team's snaps, with Brees, Cousins, and Stafford handling 100% of their team's snaps. This to me supports the "wait to draft a QB." approach as the top 20 Quarterbacks had a variance of roughly 140 snaps, not a ton.  What adds a little pizzazz, is cross referencing with production. With variables such as Offensive style, Accuracy, Blocking, etc all at play we bring a more 3D approach to a 1D statistic.  For instance, Drew Brees had 1151 total plays on the field or 40 more than Blake Bortles' total of 1,111, yet threw for 37 TD's vs Bortles'  pinner 23 TD's. At a TD to Snap rate of a TD every 31 passes, Brees substantially outperformed Bortles' TD every 48 passes.

Another angle we can draw from total snaps is that trends support the philosophy of drafting a QB with a bad defense with the theory being your QB will have more snaps on the field, not only that but valuable snaps as they air it out playing catch up.  Brees, Cousins, Wentz, Winston, Flacco, and Dalton fit this mold leading the way in Snap Counts with a poor Defense. 

Per injuries, etc. these guys are on the rise or fall on Snap Counts:

 

Rise:

Garoppolo - new situation

Lynch - wins keys to the car

Cutler - Waaah

Goff- trial by fire

Brady- full season, yikes

Tannenhill - potential

 

Fall:

Stafford - team shifting to defense

Bortles - sack #20 ends his season early

Wentz- career attempts in 2016

Manning- just don't see it for old Eli

 

 

snap counts year end 2016 - QB


 

RUNNING BACKS

 

We hear it mentioned lately that Fantasy Football is moving away from the dominant RB towards the flashier WR position. I believe there is some truth to that opinion, but (disclaimer I'm a " lock in your RB1 first round" kind of Owner) by taking a look at last seasons Snaps on the above graph you'll see that David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, L. Bell, Elliott and Gurley had over 66% of their teams plays and also produced with massive seasons.  For the sake of argument, let's call 55% our Mendoza line (minimal output for RB) as we want our runners on the field more than half the time, only 11 RB's land above the Mendoza line. This tells me that perhaps more than ever, that stud RB1 can carry you to a championship. Imagine in a 12 team draft locking down two RB's of the top 11 that play more than 55% of their teams plays! The difference in RB2's can be substantial. Obviously a number of factors can determine a RB's Snap count such as outstanding blocking will get you playing time but are these productive plays? We'll save that for another day. For now we'll value the Snap count for what it is as it clearly has an effect on player performance.  With more and more teams falling back to a platoon or committee backfield, finding a true RB1 can be essential.  Some teams are now running an actual Snap count limit on running backs, much like a MLB players pitch count.  Paying attention to your prospective RB's projected numbers are more important now more than ever. Again, below are projected risers and fallers:

 

Rise:

Prosise- wins key to the car

Henry- time to shine

Booker- wins job, stays healthy

McKinnon- ditto, takes RB1 job

Ivory- been held down to long

Martin- healthy

Ware- Reid likes his RB1

McCoy- healthy and chip on shoulder

 

Fall:

D. Murray - Henry is poised

Asiata- back up time

Gore- father time catching up

Yeldon- jags stink

Blount- now a crowded backfield

C. Michael- born to be a backup

 

 

snap counts year end 2016 - RB

 


WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Upon diving into WR numbers, Owners naturally tend to drift towards Total Targets, a reasonable approach.  But again, to pop this stat out a bit into 3D, we can determine the number of Targets per Snaps and this my friends is value.  It's also very interesting to note only 5 WR's reached double digits in TD's and only 25 players broke 1,000 yards. There doesn't appear to be a sharp difference in WR's production across the board as teams are really spreading the ball out now more than ever.  This again raises the question is a RB1 more valuable than a WR1? And I say yes Brotha!

 

Let's take a glance at the top WR in Snaps last year, DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins of the Texans led all WR's with almost 1100 Snaps. Literally, he was at wideout for 97% of the Texan's plays, seems like a stellar choice. Not so fast, Hopkins struggled with 954 yards and a measly 4 TD's.  Being selected in the 1st round of most drafts, Hopkins was clearly a monster bust. This tells me as I evaluate players for next season that Hopkins was used often as a decoy, a blocker, a pass dropper and faced some accuracy issues at QB (cough, Osweiler).  Not a good combination in any way for Hopkins again next season. Being able to dig down, study the numbers of each prospect, and come away with the reasons "why" is the due diligence I'm talking about to gain that championship edge. Once again, some players to target and a few to look over:

 

Rise:

M. Thomas - has established WR1 with Brees

Woods- bounce back candidate

Cobb- has to do better than 4 TD's

Hogan- great late season run 17.9 yards/catch!

Cooper- Carr's boy

Diggs- sky is the limit

 

Fall:

Hopkins- Osweiler not going anywhere

Shepard- expect Giants to shift to run game

Robinson- what a bummer

La Fell- AJ Green back

T. Williams- a now crowded huddle at WR

Wallace- too many other targets

M. Jones- hot start, cold finish

 

How about this for a fact RB David Johnson of the Cardinals had 4 less receiving yards (883-879) than Allen Robinson WR1 of the Jaguars and 2 less receiving TD's (6 to 4). Wow.

 

snap counts year end 2016 - WR


 

TIGHT ENDS

 

The days of the 1,000 yard or double digit TD's among TE's are on their way out. The two consistencies, however, are that many TE's are similar in production and also see a high % of their team's plays. In fact, 22 TE's had a 60% or higher amount of their teams Snap count. Whether blocking, receiving or being used as a decoy, the big boys are seeing their share of plays. Production however, remains consistent with 12-14 players within arms reach of each other in terms of TD's and yards. In my opinion, TE's can often be interchangeable with waiver wire pick ups depending on your league's size. Playing matchups at TE can be an unsuspected advantage. For instance, Jason Witten was at the top of TE's with 1102 Snaps and on the field an astounding 96% of the Cowboys plays but only had 3 TD's and 673 yards. Hmmm.

 

Rise:

Brate- breakout year

Ebron- should see more targets

Eifert- only played 8 games last year

Cook- full season ahead

Hooper- star in the making

 

Fall:

Witten- natural regression

James- Heath Miller complicating things

Kendricks- Goff doesn't help much

Sims- A lot of Dolphins to feed

 

snap counts year end 2016 - TE

 


I promised to take you to Sack City: D'Brickshaw Ferguson 10,707 total snaps and Joe Thomas of the Browns 9,791 and still counting consecutive Snaps!

 

"E Malama I ke Kai" (Take care of the Ocean)

Charts by Stagg Party & words by Maui Wolfe Whisperer

 

 

 

 

 

 

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