Week 15
December 16, 2017
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Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Downgrade Equals RB Upgrade


Ajayi can do more than he has since the Eagles acquired him from the Dolphins on Halloween. And with quarterback Carson Wentz done for the season and Nick Foles tossed into the cauldron, the Eagles will likely need additional carries from the 24-year-old tailback if they are to stoke their chances of securing home field throughout the playoffs.

Fantasy Goo: Ajayi could shred the Giants if he gets the touches, but he hasn’t scored a TD since his 46-yarder against the Bronco’s in his first game with the Eagles. It’s not like the other Eagles backs have been producing TD’s either, Wentz had been that dominant. I have no doubt they will lean on the running game this week, I’m high on Ajayi.


12/16/17, 03:18 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.philly.com


Jermaine Gresham

Arizona Cardinals

Ricky Business


The AZ Cardinals have downgraded TE Jermaine Gresham (illness) to OUT for Sunday’s game against Washington.

Fantasy Goo: Seals-Jones is a desperate move if you’re in the semi-finals of your playoffs, he’s only a streaming option if you’ve been streaming all year. He’s had a couple of big games, but there’s no floor. He could end up with 10 targets or he could end up with none.


12/16/17, 03:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Flying Solo


Joe Mixon did not pass concussion protocol and will not play Sunday against the Vikings.

Fantasy Goo: Bernard will see a solid workload, but it’s going to take a big play for him to have any real fantasy value. Minnesota did give up that big play to Jonathan Stewart last week, but I don’t see that happening again.


12/16/17, 03:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Bell-Cow Workload


Falcons running back Tevin Coleman, who’s in the NFL concussion protocol, was declared out of the Tampa Bay game on Saturday by coach Dan Quinn.

Fantasy Goo: Tampa has been solid against the run at home, but a complete sieve on the road. They are at home this week, but they haven’t faced a RB like Freeman at home this year. Freeman has traditionally been a better performer at home, but I have no doubt he’ll put up RB1 numbers with action in the passing game.


12/16/17, 03:10 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.myajc.com


Dion Sims

Chicago Bears

Honorable Mention


Bears TE Adam Shaheen (chest), who is listed as questionable against the Lions, is not expected to play, source said. Chicago goes in a little short-handed.

Fantasy Goo: I like Sims as a streamer if you’re desperate, he always seems to put up numbers when he’s the only option. I rarely start a streamer in the early set of games, there will be safer options tomorrow.


12/16/17, 03:06 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Stefon Diggs

Minnesota Vikings

Diggin' It and Thielen It


The Vikings have played five out of their last six games on the road. They return home this week to face a banged-up Bengals defense and Kyle Rudolph is out. Stefon Diggs has played in four home games this year. He has hit 27.7 and 40.3 on DK in two of them.

Fantasy Goo: Diggs has never played a game without Rudolph in the line-up, so we don’t really know how this will affect his targets. Cincinnati has been without both starting CB’s, but may get Dre Kirkpatrick back this week. I have Diggs as a WR2/Flex this week with Thielen being a solid WR1, must start.


12/15/17, 05:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Robert Woods

Los Angeles Rams

Back in Action


Seahawks Weeks 1-9 (With Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 2nd
Explosive pass rate allowed:19th
Weeks 11-14 (Without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 22nd
Explosive pass rate allowed: 24th

Fantasy Goo: Robert Woods comes back this week, so I’m moving Watkins way down. Watkins production went up about 70% across the board with Woods out. Kupp’s production went up with Woods out as well, but even with Woods in the line-up he was second on the team in targets. Woods might need to knock some rust off after being out for three weeks so I have Woods and Kupp in the WR3/Flex range, and feel safe with starting either one.


12/15/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jag's Starting JAG's


Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette missed his third straight day of practice today due to his quad injury. No practice all week.

Fantasy Goo: I expect Yeldon and Ivory to split the touches if Fournette doesn’t play, neither seems to be worth starting, but Houston has given up five rushing TD’s in the past three games (one to a QB).


12/15/17, 05:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Howard

Chicago Bears

Here Comes the BOOM!


Detroit is allowing 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game over the past five weeks, the most in the league, they have also allowed a rushing touchdown in eight straight games. Jordan Howard is tied for the most runs of 10 or more yards (30) on the season. Howard has had 12 100-yard rushing games in his first two seasons and he wasn’t even the starter the first four games last year.

Fantasy Goo: Howard is really boom-bust, he has yet to pair together fantasy RB1 weeks this year. He had a huge game last week and his match-up this week is just too sweet to think that he won’t be able to break this trend.


12/15/17, 05:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

In the Clear


Zach Ertz has cleared the concussion protocol and will play this week.

He’s pretty much ranked as the number three TE across the industry, but I think he lacks the boom upside we might think he has against the Giants. His production with Foles, back in 2013, was only slightly lower than his production this year. In the first nine games the Giants gave up a TD to a TE in every game. In the last four games the Giants have only given up one, to Jason Witten, who has historically torched the Giants, it was his only catch of the game. They even managed to keep Kelce out of the end-zone, I believe a couple of OPI’s were involved there and Kelce did get 109 yards receiving though. I believe Ertz is a prime candidate for 5/50/1, but I don’t expect him to win you your week or be worth paying up for in DFS.


12/15/17, 05:11 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles

Not Skipping a Beat


Carson Wentz is out for the season, and maybe some of Next season with a torn ACL. Over their first 24 games Foles has more TD’s, fewer INT’s, and more yards that Wentz has in his first 24 games. Foles was a Pro Bowler who threw 27 TD & 2 INT with the Eagles in 2013. The last time Nick Foles faced the Raiders, he threw for 7 TDs.

Fantasy Goo: I’m not saying there won’t be an adjustment period and I’m not trying to say the Eagles are better-off without Wentz, but Foles is a very capable back-up and if he can stir-up that 2013 magic the Eagles should be fine. Normally I’d say wait a week before starting Foles or any of the skill position players on the Eagles, but with it being week 15 and the match-up being a weak Giants defense, I’m starting them all as you usually would.


12/13/17, 03:59 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Lamar Miller

Houston Texans

Miller a Solid Cash Play on DFS


Miller will face the 49'ers, who according to Football Outsiders ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA.

Fantasy Goo: In the last 3 weeks, Miller is 6th in total carries. In cash games, you want opportunity. Considering the 49'ers run one of the fastest paced offenses in the league, his carries, already in the top 10 in recent weeks, should see an increase.


12/10/17, 11:14 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Gio Free Square


Gio is gets the starting role today as there as Mixon is out.

Fantasy Goo: The man is only $3100 on Draft Kings. The Baengals are home and 6 point favorites. The game script could easily favor the ground game, which means Gio should get plenty of touches to surpass 3X value.


12/10/17, 10:57 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Still in Concussion Protocol


Eagles still want to look at TE Zach Ertz and his concussion on Sunday, but he is considered doubtful for game vs. Rams even though he is listed as questionable.

Fantasy Goo: Trey Burton has been a big name all week, going for 4 receptions for 42 yards after Ertz’s exit last week. Burton is a versatile athlete, but not a premier TE like Ertz. His good numbers came against Denver which is giving up the second most points to the TE position this year. Philly faces the Rams this week who are sixth best in fantasy points allowed. I'm not considering Burton a good stream this week.


12/10/17, 10:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ameer Abdullah

Detroit Lions

Pain in the Neck


Detroit Lions RB Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable) is not expected to play today, source said, though it's more for play than injury reasons. Detroit is trying other players to improve the run game.

Fantasy Goo: This isn’t surprising given Abdullah’s disappointing performances over the past year and more.
Tion Green led the team with 51 rushing yards in his debut last week, and figures to be the Lions' ball-carrier Sunday in Tampa. Pass-catcher Theo Riddick will see reps as well and I expect that he has a safer floor especially in PPR.


12/10/17, 10:05 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Primed for Monday Return


Hogan has been out the past four weeks and has basically caused me a playoff berth in one of my dynasty leagues. If you’re still in it I’d get him into the line-up. With Gronk out Hogan should see a solid number of targets.


12/10/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

It's A Trap


Source says, if Cooper can cut at full speed and start and stop in pregame workout, they will use him on a limited basis or “pitch count.” Calls it a “very dramatic turnaround” from what team was expecting 48 hours ago.

Fantasy Goo: Total decoy move, I’m not starting him even if he is healthy enough to play. Cooper went for 11/210/2 when he faced the Chiefs in Week 7, so it is tempting to put him in, but you’ve got to figure that the Raiders want him in there just so the Chiefs have to play coverage his way and leave Crabtree in single coverage.


12/10/17, 10:01 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Todd Gurley

Los Angeles Rams

Lower Expectations This Week


Todd Gurley has just 1 TD over his last four games, but still has finished as RB6, RB16, RB8, and RB7 in those games. The TD came in the RB16 week. Insane usage AND efficiency from Gurley.

Fantasy Goo: He’s been the most consistent RB1 for the entire season, which is a nice turn-around from a disappointing 2016. He faces the Eagles this week who are second-best in fantasy points allowed to the RB position this year. I think we have to start him, but expectations must be lowered. He’s a fade in DFS this week.


12/09/17, 12:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Josh Gordon

Cleveland Browns

Balls Flying Everywhere


Per @rotounderworld, 70% of DeShone Kizer's pass attempts have been catchable balls, the third-lowest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. Winds expected near 20 mph in Cleveland this week.

Fantasy Goo: I would not consider starting Kizer at any point this year, but the key question here is will he be able to get the ball anywhere near Josh Gordon. He was only able to catch 4 of the 11 balls thrown in his direction last week, but he was going against one of the top corners in the league. He was still able to rack up 85 yards, and had over 200 air-yards, so we can be confident the opportunity will be there. If I had him anywhere I would most likely start him and will probably have him ranked as a mid-range WR2.


12/09/17, 12:53 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andy Dalton

Cincinnati Bengals

Red Rocket Time


Andy Dalton’s finishes last 3 weeks: QB9, QB12, QB6. Over the last 3 wks he is QB 7.
This week he faces Chicago whose pass defense over the past 3 games is allowing a QBR of 103, a 68% completion percentage, and 6th highest passing percentage for 1st downs.

Fantasy Goo: Dalton is a viable streamer this week, but I hesitate to rank him in the top 12. If you’re in the playoffs you’re probably just riding with what got you there, but if you’re stuck with a questionable match-up Dalton is a solid option. Also consider that while Chicago’s defense has looked good most of the year, their best games have been at home, this game is in Cincinnati.


12/09/17, 12:50 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray are the cover of the 2016 NFL Snap Counts Year End Report graphic

Snap Counts 2016 Year End Report

Posted by d-Rx on 03/01/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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TIME IS MONEY

 

Aloha and welcome to my segment. Today I'm taking you to Snap City where we will break down some quick notes and observations regarding players Snap Counts. Because, let's face it fellas you can't score unless your cleats are on the playing field. By no means is this a "bible" for your draft day, however taking a sharper look at this statistic might give us some hints and thus knowledge and let's face it knowledge is power.  More and more matchups are ending on Monday nights and sometimes by a fraction of a point; you can never have too many data points. Pyromaniac hits it harder and stronger than the others...Not to mention your League buddies are Fishing, Hunting, Golfing, scouting NCAA Bracket teams and preparing for MLB Fantasy Drafts. Now is the time to continue to hit hard as the other Owners are asleep at the wheel. Pyromaniac continues to provide you with that slight advantage that only true due diligence can provide. Light fuse get away, and fire it up, because Time is Money!

 


QUARTERBACKS

 

It's interesting to see that the Top 20 QB's all played over 90% of their team's snaps, with Brees, Cousins, and Stafford handling 100% of their team's snaps. This to me supports the "wait to draft a QB." approach as the top 20 Quarterbacks had a variance of roughly 140 snaps, not a ton.  What adds a little pizzazz, is cross referencing with production. With variables such as Offensive style, Accuracy, Blocking, etc all at play we bring a more 3D approach to a 1D statistic.  For instance, Drew Brees had 1151 total plays on the field or 40 more than Blake Bortles' total of 1,111, yet threw for 37 TD's vs Bortles'  pinner 23 TD's. At a TD to Snap rate of a TD every 31 passes, Brees substantially outperformed Bortles' TD every 48 passes.

Another angle we can draw from total snaps is that trends support the philosophy of drafting a QB with a bad defense with the theory being your QB will have more snaps on the field, not only that but valuable snaps as they air it out playing catch up.  Brees, Cousins, Wentz, Winston, Flacco, and Dalton fit this mold leading the way in Snap Counts with a poor Defense. 

Per injuries, etc. these guys are on the rise or fall on Snap Counts:

 

Rise:

Garoppolo - new situation

Lynch - wins keys to the car

Cutler - Waaah

Goff- trial by fire

Brady- full season, yikes

Tannenhill - potential

 

Fall:

Stafford - team shifting to defense

Bortles - sack #20 ends his season early

Wentz- career attempts in 2016

Manning- just don't see it for old Eli

 

 

snap counts year end 2016 - QB


 

RUNNING BACKS

 

We hear it mentioned lately that Fantasy Football is moving away from the dominant RB towards the flashier WR position. I believe there is some truth to that opinion, but (disclaimer I'm a " lock in your RB1 first round" kind of Owner) by taking a look at last seasons Snaps on the above graph you'll see that David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, L. Bell, Elliott and Gurley had over 66% of their teams plays and also produced with massive seasons.  For the sake of argument, let's call 55% our Mendoza line (minimal output for RB) as we want our runners on the field more than half the time, only 11 RB's land above the Mendoza line. This tells me that perhaps more than ever, that stud RB1 can carry you to a championship. Imagine in a 12 team draft locking down two RB's of the top 11 that play more than 55% of their teams plays! The difference in RB2's can be substantial. Obviously a number of factors can determine a RB's Snap count such as outstanding blocking will get you playing time but are these productive plays? We'll save that for another day. For now we'll value the Snap count for what it is as it clearly has an effect on player performance.  With more and more teams falling back to a platoon or committee backfield, finding a true RB1 can be essential.  Some teams are now running an actual Snap count limit on running backs, much like a MLB players pitch count.  Paying attention to your prospective RB's projected numbers are more important now more than ever. Again, below are projected risers and fallers:

 

Rise:

Prosise- wins key to the car

Henry- time to shine

Booker- wins job, stays healthy

McKinnon- ditto, takes RB1 job

Ivory- been held down to long

Martin- healthy

Ware- Reid likes his RB1

McCoy- healthy and chip on shoulder

 

Fall:

D. Murray - Henry is poised

Asiata- back up time

Gore- father time catching up

Yeldon- jags stink

Blount- now a crowded backfield

C. Michael- born to be a backup

 

 

snap counts year end 2016 - RB

 


WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Upon diving into WR numbers, Owners naturally tend to drift towards Total Targets, a reasonable approach.  But again, to pop this stat out a bit into 3D, we can determine the number of Targets per Snaps and this my friends is value.  It's also very interesting to note only 5 WR's reached double digits in TD's and only 25 players broke 1,000 yards. There doesn't appear to be a sharp difference in WR's production across the board as teams are really spreading the ball out now more than ever.  This again raises the question is a RB1 more valuable than a WR1? And I say yes Brotha!

 

Let's take a glance at the top WR in Snaps last year, DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins of the Texans led all WR's with almost 1100 Snaps. Literally, he was at wideout for 97% of the Texan's plays, seems like a stellar choice. Not so fast, Hopkins struggled with 954 yards and a measly 4 TD's.  Being selected in the 1st round of most drafts, Hopkins was clearly a monster bust. This tells me as I evaluate players for next season that Hopkins was used often as a decoy, a blocker, a pass dropper and faced some accuracy issues at QB (cough, Osweiler).  Not a good combination in any way for Hopkins again next season. Being able to dig down, study the numbers of each prospect, and come away with the reasons "why" is the due diligence I'm talking about to gain that championship edge. Once again, some players to target and a few to look over:

 

Rise:

M. Thomas - has established WR1 with Brees

Woods- bounce back candidate

Cobb- has to do better than 4 TD's

Hogan- great late season run 17.9 yards/catch!

Cooper- Carr's boy

Diggs- sky is the limit

 

Fall:

Hopkins- Osweiler not going anywhere

Shepard- expect Giants to shift to run game

Robinson- what a bummer

La Fell- AJ Green back

T. Williams- a now crowded huddle at WR

Wallace- too many other targets

M. Jones- hot start, cold finish

 

How about this for a fact RB David Johnson of the Cardinals had 4 less receiving yards (883-879) than Allen Robinson WR1 of the Jaguars and 2 less receiving TD's (6 to 4). Wow.

 

snap counts year end 2016 - WR


 

TIGHT ENDS

 

The days of the 1,000 yard or double digit TD's among TE's are on their way out. The two consistencies, however, are that many TE's are similar in production and also see a high % of their team's plays. In fact, 22 TE's had a 60% or higher amount of their teams Snap count. Whether blocking, receiving or being used as a decoy, the big boys are seeing their share of plays. Production however, remains consistent with 12-14 players within arms reach of each other in terms of TD's and yards. In my opinion, TE's can often be interchangeable with waiver wire pick ups depending on your league's size. Playing matchups at TE can be an unsuspected advantage. For instance, Jason Witten was at the top of TE's with 1102 Snaps and on the field an astounding 96% of the Cowboys plays but only had 3 TD's and 673 yards. Hmmm.

 

Rise:

Brate- breakout year

Ebron- should see more targets

Eifert- only played 8 games last year

Cook- full season ahead

Hooper- star in the making

 

Fall:

Witten- natural regression

James- Heath Miller complicating things

Kendricks- Goff doesn't help much

Sims- A lot of Dolphins to feed

 

snap counts year end 2016 - TE

 


I promised to take you to Sack City: D'Brickshaw Ferguson 10,707 total snaps and Joe Thomas of the Browns 9,791 and still counting consecutive Snaps!

 

"E Malama I ke Kai" (Take care of the Ocean)

Charts by Stagg Party & words by Maui Wolfe Whisperer

 

 

 

 

 

 

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