April 23, 2019

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 12 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 12 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/23/18

by   The Archer


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.


So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.


That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 


Week 12 Vegas Implied Point Totals and spread


Hello Gus Edwards! The Ravens have a new RB in Edwards and an exciting QB in Lamar Jackson. There is a very viable stack in starting both of these guys. The Ravens are double-digit favorites against a soft defensive line allowing 5.1 yards to opposing RBs, only two teams allow more. In the last 5 weeks, there have only been 6 other defenses that have allowed more FF PTs per game to opposing RBs. In this one, Jackson is really RB1 and Edwards is RB2. In his debut as the starter last week, the man ran the ball 27 times for 117 yards. Now, imagine he tosses a TD and 200 passing yards? He could smash! At 26.5 implied pts, there should be plenty to go around for both Jackson and Edwards. You know they will get up on Oakland. Side note, I am taking the over on prop bets versus rushing yards put up by Jackson. There has not been as big of a dual threat QB since Vick, just minus the outrage and horror. 


Also at 26.5 expected pts, Philly is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing performance last week. The Giants D is down 3 Defensive Ends, and their numbers on paper reflect a tougher D when they had Damon Harrison. In the last 5 games since shipping Harrison to the Lions, only 7 teams are surrendering more fantasy goo to the oppositions running game. Philly is home and is expected to win by 6. Josh Adams will look to continue to gain touches. In his last 3 games, he is averaging exactly 7 yards per carry. However, 2 of those 3 Philly has faced a negative-game script. This should be his time to shine and rack up 12-15 carries. Still, this is a floor play as he is not heavily involved in the passing game. On the other side, Barkley is always in play regardless of game script. Because the Giants should be down and Philly has a horrendous secondary, OBJ could have a big game. In 3 of his last 4, Beckham has put up at least 20 PPR pts. He should be able to have his way with Jalen Mills who gives up .45 fantasy points per route run. 


The highest scoring game on the slate is the 49ers/Bucs game. The game is expected to rack up 54 pts and the spread is just a field goal. I could see this one being a shootout and a great game to stack in DFS. Fire up both QBs, both TEs, and I even like Goodwin to grab a long one. Even Humphries is a cheap DFS play. However, you have to consider Evans and Jackson. These two Bucs are in the top 4 for most air yards in the last 4 weeks. Jackson definitely benefits from Fitz-magic, but should always be considered for your GPP high floor plays. You have to love Evans. For the 49ers, as long as Brieda escapes without an injury, he should be in play as well. 


New England is the healthiest they have been. The Patriots have not had Gronk and Sony Michel on the field since Week 6, and at that time, Josh Gordon was not as integrated into the offense. Do not sleep on this team. Michel could have a great game if indeed it lives up to the Vegas hype as the Pats are currently 10 point favorites. New England is tied for the 2nd highest implied team total of the week at 28.5. When you adjust for schedule, the Jets rank 24th in PPR against opposing backs; they come in at 25th in standard formats against the RB position. Finally, even Julian Edelman has a great matchup versus Buster Skrine. 


How can you not load up Melvin Gordon as the Chargers carry the largest spread, 13 pts over the visiting Cardinals. Arizona is ranked 28th in Power situations and 2nd level tackling. Gordon is a plug and play, this situation screams usage and he is one of my cash RBs on Draft Kings.


The highest implied team total is 29.25 for the Indianapolis Colts. They are home and favored by 7.5 over a bad Miami D. I love Luck. The man has thrown at least 3, often 4 TDs in each of his last 7 games. Plus, Mack is healthy and in a great spot. Just last week, Aaron Jones ran for 145 against the Dolphins. Jones was the 4th RB to rack up a triple-digit day on the ground against Miami. Mack has scored 4 TDs in his last 3 games, and gone for over 100 in 50% of his last 4. 


Finally, Vegas is telling us Houston will face a positive game-script against the Titans. However, Tennessee has only allowed 1 triple digit rusher in the last 2 seasons. This year, nary a one and no back has even put up 18 PPR pts against them this season. So while Vegas is pointing to Lamar Miller, I am fading him in a tough spot.







PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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