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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 13 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 13 (2018)

Posted by d-Rx on 11/28/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

 

spreading the fantasy lines chart for week 13

 


The Saints should see a lot of work go towards their ground crew according to Vegas in Week 13. They are favored by just over a TD on the road. Not only that, they carry the 3rd highest implied team total of the week. So, while the game-script and Vegas favor the Saints RBs, Dallas is one of the top rush defenses in the NFL. No defense allows for fewer RB adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders. That said, I am not sitting a Saints RB, they will just have too many opportunities on a team that should see multiple red zone trips. On the other side of the ball, Zeke will have a tough go. Dallas will need to pass far more. That limits his opportunities, although he will still see action in the passing game. But on the ground, defensively, the Saints are allowing the 2nd fewest adjusted line yards to opposing backs. Because they will face a negative game script, guys like Amari Cooper should see an uptick in an already busy workload. They have been peppering Cooper with targets and that should continue as the Saints rank 30th against opposing WR1s. Since arriving, AC has played 4 games. In that span, he leads the team in target share, rec. yards, receptions, air yards, TDs, and is tied with Zeke for most targets. 

 

Since the Giants let Harrison go to the Lions, their defensive line is not nearly as fearsome. The Giants, with Harrison, allowed a measly 3.9 YPC. However, since his departure, the Giants surrender 5.1 yards per carry. Not only that, they have allowed a different RB to score in each of the 4 games since. In fact, in the last 5 weeks, the Giants have allowed the 5th most rushing yards to opposing backs despite only playing 4 games. In Week 13, they face Chicago, another road favorite. Although we might not have a lot of faith in J. Howard, according to Vegas, the ground game should see opportunity in this one. Since seeing Harrison depart, the Giants have allowed 3 different RBs to rack up triple-digit days on the ground. That said, Cohen has clearly looked like the better back. But, if indeed the game calls for rushing attempts, Howard is the man. In the last 3 Weeks, although Howard only has 4 more looks in total, he has accumulated 19 more rushing attempts. My eyes tell me Cohen is the better back. However, that does not mean NFL coaches use common sense. Recent history states Chicago gives the rushing attempts to Howard, and Vegas tells us the Bears should have more rushing attempts than normal.

 

The Rams visit the Lions. The Rams are expected to score north of 32, so you are loading up your Rams players, shocking as it may sound. They are favored by 10, which heavily favors Gurleyeck. Heck, maybe even Malcolm Brown gets some action. As for the Lions, they will need to put tot the air. That calls for Golladay, who is unbelievably talented; it just has not transitioned to fantasy goo… YET. Also, Kerryon Johnson is due for positive TD regression and is involved in the passing game. However, Blount and Riddick continue to vulture looks. Keep an eye on Ellington and Kerryon Johnson, both are currently listed as Questionable, as of Wed. night.

 

Green Bay is home and carries the second highest spread of the week at 14.5 over the Cardinals. Not only that, Green Bay has an implied team total of just under 30. Vegas is suggesting a lot of points to come from the Packers and obviously, the spread suggests the ground game. This could be a huge day for Aaron Jones. Even though Arizona will face a major negative game script, thus they will need to pass, Vegas is only predicting 15 points on the part of the Cardinals. Generally, when looking for implied point totals, you are aiming for 26 points. In other words, you want a team expected to score roughly 11 MORE points than the Cardinals in Week 13. 

 

Tampa is home and also welcoming a favorite: the Panthers. Vegas has this one at 56 points. This is the highest expected total score of the slate. Unfortunately, because it is just a 3.5 spread, Vegas is not giving us much indication of how these offenses will run. So although we do not a have a feel for the ground game vs. air attack, just the fact this game could easily shoot out means you are going to fire up these players.

 

Houston is home, carrying an implied team total of 26 and expected to beat Cleveland by 6 points. Only 2 teams have more total rushing attempts and despite Lamar Miller’s long TD run in Week 12, he still is under in total touchdowns, with just 3 rushing on the season. According to Number Fire’s metrics, that is 2.17 less than he should have, given his usage. In fact, his owners likely know, but some DFS players may not, Miller has 3 triple-digit rushing days in his last 5 performances. On the other side, Chubb is seemingly resistant to game-script so you are firing him up regardless. Houston is decent against WR1s but Football Outsiders ranks them 29th against opposing WR2s, perhaps Callaway keeps his fires burning for another week. Last week, he caught 4 of 5 for 62 and a TD.

 

The Chiefs have the highest spread and the highest implied team total. You do not need Vegas to tell you to start KC players and bench Raiders.

 

Seattle is expected to beat the visiting 49’ers by 10 and have an implied team total of 28. No other NFL team has accumulated more rushing attempt than the Seahawks. Chris Carson is the man. As long as he is healthy, he will get the majority of the work. If Penny does not get banged up, he has some big play potential, but I am playing the odds and taking Carson between the two. You have Davis on your bench as insurance for heading into the fantasy playoffs. 

 

Vegas always loves the Patriots, as does the betting public. Word to the wise, Burkhead could potentially return this week. As a Sony Michel owner, I am none to happy with the news. He is only in play as a handcuff if you are getting insurance for your playoffs, or in 14 team leagues. New England has a net implied team total of just north of 27 and are expected to beat the Vikings by 6. I am still waiting for Josh Gordon to turn out a performance. He has been near the top of air yards week in and out, but the Pats have not seemed to put it together. Regardless, I would still play him against the Vikings if Xavier Rhodes is out. The Minnesota CB is listed as questionable and failed to practice on Wed. 

 

 


 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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