April 20, 2019

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 14 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 14 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/06/18

by   The Archer


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.


That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 


Vegas Implied Point Total Week 14


Vegas is telling us Green Bay should expect positive game script against the Falcons and are expected to win by 6. They are expected to score just over 27 points and that number is trending upwards. Aaron Jones is the guy that should see the benefit of this situation. The Falcons rank 31st in DVOA (Defensive Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders. Plus, the Falcons have allowed the most RB receptions since 2016. Also, you have to like D. Adams, he leads all WR with 25 red zone targets. The Packers, with a new coaching philosophy, could look to highlight Aaron Rodgers in their first game under an interim coach, Joe Philbin. Green Bay and Atlanta both rank in the top 10 for rate of play when the game is within 6 points. That suggests even more opportunities on both sides to put up fantasy numbers. Atlanta has allowed 13 different RBs to put up double-digit PPR days against them this season. Considering Matt Ryan will likely need to pass to stay in this one, his WRs are decent bets. In the last 5 weeks, only 4 other defenses have surrendered more PPR points on a per game basis to opposing WRs. Green Bay is allowing the 7th most passes per game to the opposing teams WR1. 


The highest scoring game on the entire slate (57 O/U) is Tampa, as they welcome the Saints. Both teams are in the top 4 for most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. The 8 point spread suggests plenty of opportunity for the New Orleans running back duo of Kamara and Ingram. As far as the Saints WRs, Michael Thomas is currently listed as Questionable and did not practice Wednesday. Just keep an eye out. The Saints have the highest implied team total (32.5) of all teams in Week 14. The Bucs have struggled in their secondary and currently have 3 players on IR and 3 secondary players listed as Questionable. Winston could be a great start. Chris Godwin will face Apple, who has been getting picked on. Perhaps the best matchup comes from Humphries. He has proven himself to be one of Winston’s favorite targets. Not only that, he will face PJ Williams. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams carries the 3rd lowest grade of any starting slot corner in Week 14.


The second highest scoring game (53 O/U) is Baltimore at KC. I am not wasting any breath on the Chiefs, if you own ‘em, you are playing ‘em. Lamar Jackson is not on the injury report and will start again. We have yet to see his ceiling and KC has surrendered the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing gunslingers in the last 5 weeks. In fact, KC has allowed 4 QB rushing TDs on the season. No other NFL team has allowed more. Plus, they are 2nd on the season for most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Gus Edwards is not listed on the injury report for Week 14. The only deterrent would be if KC gets up early. We have yet to see Lamar Jackson rely on his arm. If the Ravens can play D and stay in this one, Lamar could have a day. If it gets out of hand quickly, then it will be a risky play. That said, it is the playoffs, and he has huge upside. We are in this thing to win it all, not to finish 2nd. There is a high correlation between playing a running QB with the team’s RB1.


If you know one thing about Vegas, they love, or rather, the public loves to bet on the Patriots. The Pats travel to face Miami and are 8 point road favorites. Do not get sucked in with that spread. Personally, I am taking the points and laying money on the Dolphins. The Pats are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 meetings in Miami. That said, with a high implied team total, and heavy road favorites, the game script should lend itself to the Patriots running backs. Yes I love Sony Michel. Typically, White is in play when they need to pass. However, Burkhead is back in the mix and of course there is always C Patterson; by the way, Patterson is the minimum price on Yahoo DFS. He is by no means a cash play, but in tournaments, he could be a way to reach some of the more expensive players. 


The Chargers are carrying the 3rd highest implied team total (31) as they are home to the Bengals. Not only that, but they carry a 14 point spread, highest of week 14. Clearly, this screams the ground attack for LA. This is one to watch. Gordon is still Questionable as of Wednesday and did not practice. Last week, Ekeler saw the most RB snaps, but it was Justin Jackson who had the better day. Ekeler has always been more of the pass catcher. Look, it is a one-game sample size, but between the two, I roll Jackson. The Bengals have absolutely been the worst, as they have surrendered the most fantasy points this season to the RB position.


The Steelers are traveling west to face Oakland. This game carries the 2nd highest spread (11) and Pitt has the 2nd highest implied team total (31.25). Conner is going to be out. While Jaylen Samuels is getting the start, he is going to split time with Ridley. Both should be huge pickups this week. It is possible both guys put up a decent day. The Raiders are allowing the 6th most RB adjusted line yards. Without adjustment, they are surrendering the 3rd most by the numbers letting opposing backs average 5.08 per carry. Ridley is 29 years old and past his prime. Samuels is the rookie and by far, the one to own in dynasty.  Considering they are giving him first crack, this is his opportunity and he is the one I would roll with between the two.


Finally, the Rams and Chicago are expected to put up the 3rd most points (52.5) in Week 14. Trubisky is looking like he will be back under center. The Rams have the talent to overcome the Bears D. Obviously, you are starting your Rams. Cohen is always a good start for the Bears, as well as Trubisky, as long as he is healthy. This one could rack up the points. 






PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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