April 20, 2019

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 16 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 16 (2018)

Posted by d-Rx on 12/19/18

by   The Archer


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The final write up for this piece is here! We have reached the end. If you are playing in a league that goes into Week 17, GET OUT NOW! Fantasy should stop in Week 16. That does not mean I am not tossing out a few DFS lineups for fun during the playoffs, but for redraft and dynasty purposes, we have reached the end. Thus, this will be the last Spreading the Lines of Fantasy write up. If you still would like the chart, let me know - @pyromaniacmo


This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.


So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.


That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 


Ladies and gentlemen, we have two weeks left! Keep in mind, it is Week 15, guys are banged up. It is imperative you watch the inactives list with a close eye. Good luck!


Week 16 Vegas chart


The Titans are 10 point favorites. So, Vegas is telling us the Titans will have a positive game script. In the last 5 weeks, the Redskins have allowed 707 yards to opposing RBs, the most in the NFL. The Redskins D-Line has allowed the most adjusted line yards to opposing RBs. Derrick Henry could easily ride owners into the fantasy playoff sunset like freaking John Wayne. Who would have thought? Apparently, Henry did some serious reflective film study during his bye week. He watched all of his snaps this season and made some adjustments. Well, that metacognitive exercise has paid off in spades. This is a porous Washington D-Line. The Skins are going up against the hottest back in the NFL over the last two weeks. Add to that, the fact the Titans are home and 10 point favorites. I am sticking with D-Henry in the fantasy championship.


The Browns are home favorites by just over a TD. Not only that, their implied team total is just north of 26 against the Bengals, their in-state rival. Look for Chubb to continue his dominance. Football Outsiders ranks the Bengals 4th worst in adjusted line yards, plus they rank bottom 5 in power rank, stuffed rank, and second level against the RB spot. The Browns are going to continue to play spoiler and even have an outside chance of doing more than that. The Bengals are now down Boyd. Their offense could easily sputter and the Browns could look to run the ball once they get the early lead and not look back. 


Tom Brady has 68 TDs against the Bills, the Patriots Week 16 opponent. That is more TD passes than against any other professional football team. That said, will Angry Bill look to run up the score and let Tom continue his dominance? Lord knows the public loves the Patriots and thus the implied point total is often higher than it should be. Still, they are 13 point favorites and expected to score north of 28 points. This screams a ground game, the biggest question is which Patriot RB will benefit. Will C. Patterson come swooping in to ruin the party? How about a Mr. Devlin? Just when you are worried about the return of Burkhead, James friggin’ Devlin comes out of the woodwork. In just 3 consecutive games (Weeks 10, 13, and 14) Devlin had just 6 carries, 8 yards, but scored 4 times! I am a Sony Michel owner, we have counseling available 24 hours a day. Plus, voodoo dolls of Devlin and C. Patterson. As infuriating as that is, Vegas is telling us Week 16 will be an easy game and New England should have plenty of Red Zone opportunities. If I had to take a guy, I go with White. That said, I am long past trying to pick a Patriot RB in fantasy. 


Indy is home, carry a 9 point spread and a have an implied point total near 28 points. While Mack can be hit or miss, since the Giants traded away Harrison, they ain’t what they used to be. The Giants might still look decent on paper, but Mack could be a nice play in Week 16 according to the Vegas numbers. Since week 8, the Giants have allowed 4 different backs to rack up over 28 PPR points. 


The Cowboys are home to Tampa. Zeke has really benefitted from teams having to honor Amari Cooper. He is fantasy’s 2nd best back in the last 5 weeks. He is just getting some monster looks week in and week out.  At nearly 27 implied points, the Cowboys should roll over Tampa who is allowing the 4th most PPR points to opposing backs in the last 5 weeks. 


The Rams should roll over Arizona. LA has an implied total of 30 points, the highest in Week 16. Not only that, Vegas is predicting a margin of victory of 13.5, the most in Week 16. Keep an eye on this. Gurley is questionable. Of course, M. Brown is out for the year. That could make John Kelly an interesting DFS play. Plus, Justin Davis is also listed as Questionable. Plus, the team recently acquired CJ Anderson as insurance. Gurley’s status is one to watch heading into Week 16. I am checking the Friday practice report with a close eye as Vegas is telling us the RB should smash for the Rams in Week 16.


Tied for the highest scoring game of the week at 53.5, the Steelers travel to see the Saints. New Orleans has the 2nd highest implied team total of Week 16. Really, Vegas is telling us the ground game for the Saints and the passing game for the Steelers are the ones to watch. Still, if there is a game to stack, this has to be the one. Plus, this is the highest scoring game on the main slate, as the other 50+ game in Week 16 occurs Sunday night. 


Without further adieu, the Sunday night game, another expected shootout. KC travels to face the Seahawks. This is much closer as Vegas only has the Chiefs winning by 2.5. Lord knows you are starting your Chief’s players. As for the Seahawks, their passing game looked like the days of old last week. Wilson finished as fantasy’s 7th best QB, and Doug Baldwin finished inside the top 5 for PPR WRs. Locket has crossed the end zone in 9 games this season and has the most snaps of any Seattle WR. In the last 5 weeks, KC has surrendered the most points to opposing fantasy QBs and the second most FF Points to opposing WRs. This contest is dripping with fantasy goo. 





PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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