Week 8
October 23, 2018
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@amaze652


RT @PirateLifeFF: 1st-round WR's from the 2015 NFL Draft 🤮 4.) Amari Cooper 7.) Kevin White 14.) Davante Parker 20.) Nelson Agholor… https://t.co/g8C0NjS9OG


05:54 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @PyroStag: He is right in pace depending on the scoring system used (includes -2 or -1 for fumbles). https://t.co/apuuwviZHR


03:53 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @ericmcclung: As @Fantasy_Mansion and I talked about on this show, Mark Davis is unable to pay star players because he's a millio… https://t.co/tpluVvMkt0


03:45 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @DispatchAlerts: If Browns make change, Mike Mularkey appears to be John Dorsey's kind of guy https://t.co/ESoktNw2pW


03:41 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @RVacchianoSNY: Eli Manning: 27 of 38 for 399 yards and a touchdown. ... Odell Beckham: 8-143-1 ... Sterling Shepard: 5-167 ... And… https://t.co/XKNoQWg08g


03:19 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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Trailing @Eric_Edholm by .10 in the final minutes, let’s pull this out! https://t.co/X23C0f9gu8


03:00 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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We just saw coach Shurmur coddle OBJr and lip read "I know, I know, it's going to be alright"... OMG is this team is so fucked.


02:31 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Even after hauling in a huge play OBJr doesn't look like he's enjoying himself on the football field...


02:12 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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@amaze652


RT @RVacchianoSNY: Eli Manning is on pace to be sacked 55 times this season. That would shatter his career high of 39 set in 2013.


01:37 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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RT @TheRBScout: The majority of Sony Michel's success has come with a fullback or two tight end formations. Can't see this role bei… https://t.co/wmhVzMlwAn


01:36 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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RT @FF_Jackson603: Got a “Big One” for ya. Side A: Devonta Freeman, Ito Smith, Tyler Boyd, Jordan Reed, Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement. Si… https://t.co/E0sBA9aIIk


01:36 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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RT @pixelnfl: Little something for the @gmfb crew, who are rocking it from London this week 💂‍♂️🇬🇧 #gmfb @nflnetwork #pixelnfl https://t.co/UI6lEPlM86


01:21 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Old Spice for yet another nutty commercial win!


01:18 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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@pyroman1ac


I have this one on vinyl. https://t.co/9Mi2tOei9H


12:47 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @GrindingTheTape: When your EVP is a literal dinosaur <<<<<<<<< https://t.co/29QdyzoLD7


12:38 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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RT @JamesDKoh: Here are all of Jordan Howard's carry charts for 2018 blended together vs his carry chart from WK11 of 2017. His 63… https://t.co/jDIak3uFXN


12:25 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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Playing against Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley in one league tonight up 37... and have Matt Ryan and Austin Hooper in… https://t.co/BfAg092YkL


12:00 AM, Oct 23, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @PyroStag: Fun fact: 25 of the 32 NFL teams allow more yards per carry from shotgun than under center, the league average on s… https://t.co/Sc4aCYodd6


08:35 PM, Oct 22, 2018

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Waz

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🎶"She Blinded Me with Science"🎶 https://t.co/OMFlhanAlY


08:06 PM, Oct 22, 2018

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Waz

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@GroveKilosdad73 I haven't confirmed, but I'm pretty certain Amari Cooper has never dropped a pass from Dak Prescott.


08:02 PM, Oct 22, 2018

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Waz

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@GroveKilosdad73 Definitely a positive.


07:57 PM, Oct 22, 2018

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It's about time Amari Cooper had a good quarterback.


07:57 PM, Oct 22, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @loadedbox: #NFL Week 7 Instant Reactions! - Recap of all the action from Week 7 - #FantasyFootball booms/busts - Matt Staffor… https://t.co/yeOUTaaHXX


11:02 AM, Oct 22, 2018

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RT @TheHateful8FF: Per @StatRouteSR- In his one game vs #ChiefsKingdom DC Sutton, #SeizeTheDEY Dalton had 20.44FFpts. On the road on… https://t.co/KzRm1rRqFK


11:02 AM, Oct 22, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Snead was set up for a monster revenge game facing his old team, the Saints. The man shows up w/ fire & fury. He th… https://t.co/GHE3tiOma9


10:58 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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@pyromaniacmo


What DOES Blount have over Patricia, the Lion’s coach? K Johnson busts a 71 yard run. Two plays later,Blount can no… https://t.co/zFhhV1tS63


05:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

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@ScottFish24 I agree, but that's an odd way to type Tyreek Hill.


05:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @SkullKingRyan: Check out the larest podcast where Ryan and Justin take you through about half of this weekend's games to see who y… https://t.co/NDK7JVwKg6


04:44 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anzah is inactive for the Lions D. But I could see the Lions getting up in this game forcing Mia to throw. If so, D… https://t.co/o5shvi3PLl


04:43 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Jags have only 1 TE available on Draft Kings - Grinnage. O'Shaughnessy, ASJ, Niles Paul, and Goolsby all are out. Grinnage just 2.5K


02:36 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 6 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 6 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/11/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Vegas Implied Point Total Fantasy Football week 6

 

The Vikings are home and carry the highest spread of week 6. They are favored by 10.5 over the visiting Cardinals. Cook has been banged up this year and could certainly miss Week 6. If so, Latavius Murray should get plenty of action, as the Vikings should clearly face a positive game script. The Cardinals have 2 starting defensive linemen listed as Questionable: Markus Golden and Robert Nkemdiche, as both failed to suit up last week. Arizona has surrendered the most PPR points to opposing RBs this season with backs totaling 9 TDs against them over the ground and through the air. 

 

Tampa is visiting Atlanta and the game is carrying the second highest expected total of Week 6. Tampa ranks in the top 5 for most PPR points allowed to all positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE). Atlanta is exactly the same, except for pts allowed to TE. So, yeah, get your goo ready and load up this one! Atlanta has the 2nd highest implied total of Week 6. Tampa already has 4 defensive back on IR and currently they have two starting SBs listed as Questionable. As for Atlanta, they have two starting defensive linemen listed as questionable. I am definitely looking at this game as one to stack. Tampa’s corners are horrific. According to PFF, there is only one starting corner in Week 6 with a lower grade than Brent Grimes; statistically, he will see the most of Calvin Ridley. Still, Sanu and Julio also have great matchups. Heck, Sanu will mainly see MJ Stewart who has allowed an 88% catch rate to opposing WRs. On the other side, Mike Evans will draw Desmond Trufant, the best of the Falcons corners, although he is not what he used to be. Winston is a sneaky play here. Also remember, the Falcons have given up the most RB receptions every year since 2015, year in, year out.

 

Pitt at Cincinnati carries the 3rd highest expected game total of Week 6. Keep in mind, Big Ben is on the road. Dalton typically does not fare well versus this divisional rivalry. In 14 games, he only has 3 wins with 17 TDs and a whopping 13 INTs. Last year, in the 2 games against the Steelers, he only averaged 187 passing yards a game. That said, Uzomah could be an interesting play as the Steelers rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy pts allowed to PPR TEs. On the other side, Conner had a big week in Week 5. JuJu is 2nd in red zone attempts, and Brown, after complaining about not getting enough looks, dominated with a jaw-dropping 45% target share in Week 5. 

 

The Rams are traveling to Mile High Stadium. Vegas has LA pegged as the 3rd highest scoring team of the week.  Plus, they are favored, on the road, to win by a full TD. Enough said, you’re playing Gurley. For their WRs, keep an eye on the concussion protocol for Cooks and Kupp. A major waiver wire pick up is Josh Reynolds this week, as it is likely one, or both, of the aforementioned WRs will not be able to suit up. This could even boost Gerald Everett as well.  The Broncos will face a negative game script and need to pass. While Lindsay is lighting it up, E. Sanders has been getting it done on volume, D. Thomas is a boom/bust. Really, Denver might be looking to play Chad Kelly at QB before too long. That said, if you look at the season, Sanders leads in targets and target share, D. Thomas is 2nd, but Sutton is on the rise. The Rams will run, and Denver will be forced to throw and do so often. The question is, how much do you trust their QB situation?

 

New England is home to KC and no surprise, this is expected to be the highest scoring game of the Week. The total pts scored, according to the prognosticators in Vegas, peg this one at nearly 60 frigging pts. James White and Sony Michel are absolute studs. In fact, White leads the team in target share, both on the season and in Week 5. KC’s pass defense ranks 28th against opposing RBs. As for Sony, even though he was injured to start the season, he is currently 3rd in NFL red zone attempts. Now, that is an area of the field the Patriots should get familiar with against the Chiefs. You want pieces of this team. They are heating up, so I am looking to buy. Same goes for KC as Mahomey continues to rewrite the record books. Both teams are top 10 in softest defenses against opposing TEs. While New England is fairly stout against the run, they can give it up to opposing WRs. In fact, so far this season, there have been 7 different WRs to accumulate at least 8 targets in a game. This one will be the chalk as almost everyone expects an ole’ fashion shootout.

 

 

 

 


 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

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