Week 24
February 16, 2019
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I remember seeing a small-to-mid industry article pass my TL a few weeks ago about how the Rooney Rule should forma… https://t.co/MNyR6yfSWq


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@friscojosh @CDCarter13 We just need to get him one more like and he will be back.


10:19 PM, Feb 16, 2019

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@FedEx Sorry for even considering another carrier.


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@UPSHelp So my TIME-SENSITIVE delivery wasn't at my designated Access Point because "the delivery driver must've pi… https://t.co/7qh6OVaEXF


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Dynasty go-to's: @DynastyWarZone @GOATdistrict @DynastyTradesHQ https://t.co/pNA8DC0SCc


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Vintage Photos Reveal the Gritty NYC Subway in the 70s and 80s https://t.co/nSiVpvZxHJ


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@ScottFish24 CBS store?


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@DFSDiez She was at a bridal expo, so a few have been life insurance companies or timeshares


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If my fiancé or mother call me again this week about how we won free airline tickets or a free honeymoon, I might just lose my mind.


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RT @CPatrickNFL: Green Bay Packers WR, Golden Tate


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RT @theFFanalysts: Damarea Crockett (5'11", 225) #Mizzou: -An intriguing mix of frame, vision, & strength -Potential goal-line vultur… https://t.co/nUKqMuz5sL


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RT @ffdynasty_ztp: Kelvin Harmon #2019NFLDraft Profile. #NFL #fantasyfootball #NFLDraft #ACC #NCState https://t.co/qhDLTT66Og


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My mom was a teacher her whole life... I can remember every teacher that helped shape my mind. This entitled idio… https://t.co/aUUkgYBsdq


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As a Nick Chubb owner. This sux! https://t.co/2x8eV6Tn0g


07:02 PM, Feb 11, 2019

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Ah yes. The Browns continuing a fine tradition of creating a positive culture and team dynamic. https://t.co/UfqdIHe3nr


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RT @jetswhispers: ESPN's Adam Schefter announced the Jets are finalizing deal with Gregg Williams to become their defensive coordinator.


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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 6 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 6 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/11/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Vegas Implied Point Total Fantasy Football week 6

 

The Vikings are home and carry the highest spread of week 6. They are favored by 10.5 over the visiting Cardinals. Cook has been banged up this year and could certainly miss Week 6. If so, Latavius Murray should get plenty of action, as the Vikings should clearly face a positive game script. The Cardinals have 2 starting defensive linemen listed as Questionable: Markus Golden and Robert Nkemdiche, as both failed to suit up last week. Arizona has surrendered the most PPR points to opposing RBs this season with backs totaling 9 TDs against them over the ground and through the air. 

 

Tampa is visiting Atlanta and the game is carrying the second highest expected total of Week 6. Tampa ranks in the top 5 for most PPR points allowed to all positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE). Atlanta is exactly the same, except for pts allowed to TE. So, yeah, get your goo ready and load up this one! Atlanta has the 2nd highest implied total of Week 6. Tampa already has 4 defensive back on IR and currently they have two starting SBs listed as Questionable. As for Atlanta, they have two starting defensive linemen listed as questionable. I am definitely looking at this game as one to stack. Tampa’s corners are horrific. According to PFF, there is only one starting corner in Week 6 with a lower grade than Brent Grimes; statistically, he will see the most of Calvin Ridley. Still, Sanu and Julio also have great matchups. Heck, Sanu will mainly see MJ Stewart who has allowed an 88% catch rate to opposing WRs. On the other side, Mike Evans will draw Desmond Trufant, the best of the Falcons corners, although he is not what he used to be. Winston is a sneaky play here. Also remember, the Falcons have given up the most RB receptions every year since 2015, year in, year out.

 

Pitt at Cincinnati carries the 3rd highest expected game total of Week 6. Keep in mind, Big Ben is on the road. Dalton typically does not fare well versus this divisional rivalry. In 14 games, he only has 3 wins with 17 TDs and a whopping 13 INTs. Last year, in the 2 games against the Steelers, he only averaged 187 passing yards a game. That said, Uzomah could be an interesting play as the Steelers rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy pts allowed to PPR TEs. On the other side, Conner had a big week in Week 5. JuJu is 2nd in red zone attempts, and Brown, after complaining about not getting enough looks, dominated with a jaw-dropping 45% target share in Week 5. 

 

The Rams are traveling to Mile High Stadium. Vegas has LA pegged as the 3rd highest scoring team of the week.  Plus, they are favored, on the road, to win by a full TD. Enough said, you’re playing Gurley. For their WRs, keep an eye on the concussion protocol for Cooks and Kupp. A major waiver wire pick up is Josh Reynolds this week, as it is likely one, or both, of the aforementioned WRs will not be able to suit up. This could even boost Gerald Everett as well.  The Broncos will face a negative game script and need to pass. While Lindsay is lighting it up, E. Sanders has been getting it done on volume, D. Thomas is a boom/bust. Really, Denver might be looking to play Chad Kelly at QB before too long. That said, if you look at the season, Sanders leads in targets and target share, D. Thomas is 2nd, but Sutton is on the rise. The Rams will run, and Denver will be forced to throw and do so often. The question is, how much do you trust their QB situation?

 

New England is home to KC and no surprise, this is expected to be the highest scoring game of the Week. The total pts scored, according to the prognosticators in Vegas, peg this one at nearly 60 frigging pts. James White and Sony Michel are absolute studs. In fact, White leads the team in target share, both on the season and in Week 5. KC’s pass defense ranks 28th against opposing RBs. As for Sony, even though he was injured to start the season, he is currently 3rd in NFL red zone attempts. Now, that is an area of the field the Patriots should get familiar with against the Chiefs. You want pieces of this team. They are heating up, so I am looking to buy. Same goes for KC as Mahomey continues to rewrite the record books. Both teams are top 10 in softest defenses against opposing TEs. While New England is fairly stout against the run, they can give it up to opposing WRs. In fact, so far this season, there have been 7 different WRs to accumulate at least 8 targets in a game. This one will be the chalk as almost everyone expects an ole’ fashion shootout.

 

 

 

 


 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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