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Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons is poised to have a solid week on FanDuel and DraftKings - DFS

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 20 DFS Advice (Conference Championship Playoffs 2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 01/20/17

Stagg Party's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 


Pillar: Matt Ryan - DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $9,200   [GB@ATL]

Starts crying…. Matt Ryan…. That’s my quarterback man. That is MY quarterback… Stops crying to immediately resume press conference. Ryan is the quarterback I want to play on this slate, and will ride or die with him finishing as the top overall scorer on the weekend. Ryan’s team has a huge implied point total, will be in the friendly confines of a dome, and gets to take on one of the worst secondaries in the league on a team that can hold up against the run. Ryan had a great game the last time these two teams played and his cast of pass catchers is a bit healthier than that of Rodgers’.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Jared Cook - DraftKings - $5,100 / FanDuel - $6,400 [GB@ATL]

Jared Cook suddenly looks like the far and away best tight end option on the slate with his recent involvement. Cook has seen a boatload of targets over the last six weeks and we have now seen more to his game. They have started to use Cook down the field as well as in the redzone and Aaron Rodgers is starting to forgive him when he makes his inevitable bone headed play. With nearly all of the Packers receivers banged up, Cook is the healthiest he has been all season long. Cook might be the chalkiest play of them all, but if you project him to out pace the other tight ends then it’s easy to fire him up.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: LeGarrette Blount - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $6,500 [PIT@NE]

LeGarrette Blount let a lot of people down last week, which could be good because of recency bias. Blount still saw a decent number of carries and was used near the goalline as the lead back. With Dion Lewis putting the ball on the ground twice last week, Blount could also be in line for a few extra carries throughout the game. The type of backs that Pittsburgh have struggled with this season are the big boys who can power through their undersized linebackers and secondary. Let me tell you the four running backs who have gone over 100 yards this season: Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Isaiah Crowell, and Ezekiel Elliott. Each of these guys tips the scales at over 220 pounds and are known as power runners. 

 

Fade: NO ONE - DraftKings - $3,000 / FanDuel - $5,000   [NFL@NFL]

Seriously, trying to take down a GPP this week requires some off the board plays no one can be argued as a strong fade.

 

Stack of the Week: Matt Ryan and Taylor Gabriel  [GB@ATL]




 

Houdini's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs 

 

 

Pillar: Aaron Rodgers – Draft Kings $8,100 / Fan Duel $9,600 [GB@ATL]

The Packers are going to need Aaron Rodgers to put up a lot of offense against the Falcons if the Packers are going to win this game. Green Bay is lacking a steady ground attack and that means Rodgers should throw more than 40 attempts again this week. In the regular season the Falcons were 30th against quarterbacks, allowing 18.7 fantasy points per game, and Aaron should easily eclipse that mark this week. Don’t get cute at quarterback and go with Rodgers.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: LaGarrette Blount – Draft Kings $4,400 / Fan Duel $6,500 [NE vs. PIT]

Blount is at a great price in Draft Kings and is still a value in Fan Duel. LaGarrette did basically nothing last week with just 31 rushing yards, but he is in line for a lot more looks this week. Dion Lewis stole the show last week, but he did fumble twice, which should give Blount more opportunities this week. The Steelers have also been victimized by bigger running backs, and the Patriots should look to ride Blount hard and heavy and in the second half of this game.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Tevin Coleman – Draft Kings $4,800 / Fan Duel $6,300 [ATL vs. GB]

I love Tevin Coleman this week against the Packers. Tevin is a big play waiting to happen, and this game is going to feature a ton of offense with Coleman helping to pick up the slack as a receiver this week. This is a game where both Freeman and Coleman should go off, and I even like playing both of them together in this matchup. With the offense flying in this game, I want as much of it as I can get.

 

Fade: Ben Roethlisberger – Draft Kings $5,800 / Fan Duel $8,000 [PIT@NE]

Draft Kings is pricing him to make you play him, but don’t. Simple as this: Why would you play the road quarterback in New England with a Super Bowl birth on the line!!!

 

Stack of the Week:  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman [GB@DET] 




 

Mo’s DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Matt Ryan- DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $9,200 [GB@ATL]

Ryan is my favorite QB on the short slate. All three of his wide receivers have a favorable matchup according to PFF. The Green Bay secondary is atrocious. Obviously, this is the game to stack as it opened with nearly a 60 point over/under. So far on the season, Atlanta has hit the over 14 times and Green Bay has done it 12 times. Ryan has tossed at least 300 yards, which does get you the bonus on Draft Kings, seven different times this season. You have to go back to Week 14 of the 2015 season to find a game he did not put up a TD.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Randall Cobb- DraftKings - $5,600 / FanDuel - $6,900 [GB@ATL]

Cobb is $1,000 less than Adams on Draft Kings. Remember, Adams has the high ankle sprain that hobbled him in the past. In fact, out of the starting Green Bay WRs, Cobb is the only one not listed on the injury report. So, Jordy and Janis could only get in a partial practice so far. Neither Adams nor Allison have been able to go at all so far. That is huge. Rodgers really uses his practice time to develop chemistry and timing during the week as they perfect the game plan. That really is working in Cobb’s favor. Because Adams has been so involved, I think many fans will over look his injury. Cobb will be the one to benefit, as will you if you slid him into your DFS lineup. Cobb will face Brian Poole. According to PFF, on the season, Atlanta has allowed the 2nd most FF Points to opposing slot receivers.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: LeGarrette Blount - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $6,500 [PIT@NE]

Blount should be under-owned this week. There is likely going to be recency bias as the man did not score last week. Keep in mind, that was only the second time this season he failed to score at home. Also remember, he was sick last week and missed two days of practice. While he will be under-owned, his teammate, Lewis, will be over-owned as folks will chase that box score. But it is doubtful that Lewis will get another special teams TD, and his red zone score will likely go back to Blount. Remember Blount lead all RBs with red zone attempts as well as rushing TDs. So, playing Blount over Lewis could really vault you over a larger percentage of the field. The team is expected to score north of 28 points. You know they will be in the red zone on more than one occasion and Blount should be the New England back to take advantage.

 

Fade: Dion Lewis  - DraftKings - $5,300 / FanDuel - $7,000 [PIT@NE]

The Patriots are expected to rack up the second most points in the Conference Championships. That, combined with his output last week, Lewis could very well be one of the most owned players. However, I am not chasing last week’s box score. It is certainly doubtful he gets another special teams score. Now that Blount is healthy and back at practice, he will likely grab the red zone work, as he has all season long. Blount has by far, the most red zone carries in the NFL. He leads all backs with rushing TDs. Those facts are for a reason, the Patriots are not about to change what got them there. I will still have 10% ownership in Lewis, but I certainly want to be very under-weight with him, as the field will go overboard. Use that to your advantage.

 

Stack of the Week:   Matt Ryan / Julio Jones / Devonta Freeman / Taylor Gabriel




 

ØC's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 


Pillar: QB, Matt Ryan – ATLvsGB – Draft Kings $7,700 / Fan Duel $9,200

Matt Ryan, the front runner for the MVP award will show everyone why he should be so at home against the 27th total ranked defense and the 31st ranked pass defense against fantasy quarterbacks, . Also, Ryan has averaged 30 FF points per game in the last two home contests with no interceptions since Week 13. He’s not playing out of his mind like Rodgers has been forced to. He’s followed Shanahan’s direction and has successfully used the entire offense instead of focusing on one weapon, like Julio Jones. Ryan has throw touchdowns to 12 different players over the season, a record. Matty Ice also put up 24.4 FF points against Green Bay back in Week 8. There is nothing here telling you Ryan isn’t a great option for a slightly cheaper price.

 

Mid Price Core: RB, Devonta Freeman – ATLvsGB – Draft Kings $7,200 / Fan Duel $8,000

While the Packers are better against the rushing attack, Freeman still has double digit fantasy points in the last four games. Since the Falcon’s bye in Week 11, Freeman has nine rushing touchdowns (which doenst include the rushing and receiving TD against the Packers earlier this season). Tevin Coleman will undoubtedly take some work away, but that hasn’t stopped Freeman from amassing over 1000 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns this season. This offense is too powerful for one or two players. Atlanta can absolutely produce 5-6 top three fantasy players in each position.

 

Sleeper: WR, Chris Hogan – NEvsPIT – Draft Kings $3,900 / Fan Duel $5,500

When it comes to the Patriots, nothing is ever a guarantee. They can switch their game plan on a whim depending on how much the other team has farted that day. One game it can be a pounding ground game with LeGarrette Blount, and the next day Brady is catching TD passes from Edelman. As the Steelers do have a good defense (top 10 in most categories), ill look outside the box for a sleeper play. Hogan will receive lesser defensive coverage and already put up 95 receiving yards on the superior secondary of Houston. $3,900 is one of the cheapest options you can go with this week with a high ceiling. He has a thigh injury already said to not be bad enough to keep him out of the game, but as usual, check on his status early on Sunday.

 

Fade: RB, LeVeon Bell – PIT@NE – Draft Kings $10,300 / Fan Duel $9,500

Belichik and the Patriots defense are great at one thing, taking away the best part of your team. Ben Roethlisberger has 8.1 and 14.9 FF points respectively over the last two playoff games with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He is not a threat. Antonio Brown has been dealing with social media distractions all week plus not he’ll get Malcolm Butler on his ass the entire game. He’s the best receiver in the league and could see plenty of double coverage without another outside threat or TE on the Steelers to deal with. This leaves LeVeon Bell. I see stacked box after stacked box forcing Pittsburgh to use him in the pass game exclusively. Add in home field advantage, and I just don’t like it, especially for such a massive price.  

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

Follow us on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/pyroman1ac

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