Week 20
January 19, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons is poised to have a solid week on FanDuel and DraftKings - DFS

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 20 DFS Advice (Conference Championship Playoffs 2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 01/20/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 


Pillar: Matt Ryan - DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $9,200   [GB@ATL]

Starts crying…. Matt Ryan…. That’s my quarterback man. That is MY quarterback… Stops crying to immediately resume press conference. Ryan is the quarterback I want to play on this slate, and will ride or die with him finishing as the top overall scorer on the weekend. Ryan’s team has a huge implied point total, will be in the friendly confines of a dome, and gets to take on one of the worst secondaries in the league on a team that can hold up against the run. Ryan had a great game the last time these two teams played and his cast of pass catchers is a bit healthier than that of Rodgers’.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Jared Cook - DraftKings - $5,100 / FanDuel - $6,400 [GB@ATL]

Jared Cook suddenly looks like the far and away best tight end option on the slate with his recent involvement. Cook has seen a boatload of targets over the last six weeks and we have now seen more to his game. They have started to use Cook down the field as well as in the redzone and Aaron Rodgers is starting to forgive him when he makes his inevitable bone headed play. With nearly all of the Packers receivers banged up, Cook is the healthiest he has been all season long. Cook might be the chalkiest play of them all, but if you project him to out pace the other tight ends then it’s easy to fire him up.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: LeGarrette Blount - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $6,500 [PIT@NE]

LeGarrette Blount let a lot of people down last week, which could be good because of recency bias. Blount still saw a decent number of carries and was used near the goalline as the lead back. With Dion Lewis putting the ball on the ground twice last week, Blount could also be in line for a few extra carries throughout the game. The type of backs that Pittsburgh have struggled with this season are the big boys who can power through their undersized linebackers and secondary. Let me tell you the four running backs who have gone over 100 yards this season: Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Isaiah Crowell, and Ezekiel Elliott. Each of these guys tips the scales at over 220 pounds and are known as power runners. 

 

Fade: NO ONE - DraftKings - $3,000 / FanDuel - $5,000   [NFL@NFL]

Seriously, trying to take down a GPP this week requires some off the board plays no one can be argued as a strong fade.

 

Stack of the Week: Matt Ryan and Taylor Gabriel  [GB@ATL]




 

Houdini's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs 

 

 

Pillar: Aaron Rodgers – Draft Kings $8,100 / Fan Duel $9,600 [GB@ATL]

The Packers are going to need Aaron Rodgers to put up a lot of offense against the Falcons if the Packers are going to win this game. Green Bay is lacking a steady ground attack and that means Rodgers should throw more than 40 attempts again this week. In the regular season the Falcons were 30th against quarterbacks, allowing 18.7 fantasy points per game, and Aaron should easily eclipse that mark this week. Don’t get cute at quarterback and go with Rodgers.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: LaGarrette Blount – Draft Kings $4,400 / Fan Duel $6,500 [NE vs. PIT]

Blount is at a great price in Draft Kings and is still a value in Fan Duel. LaGarrette did basically nothing last week with just 31 rushing yards, but he is in line for a lot more looks this week. Dion Lewis stole the show last week, but he did fumble twice, which should give Blount more opportunities this week. The Steelers have also been victimized by bigger running backs, and the Patriots should look to ride Blount hard and heavy and in the second half of this game.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Tevin Coleman – Draft Kings $4,800 / Fan Duel $6,300 [ATL vs. GB]

I love Tevin Coleman this week against the Packers. Tevin is a big play waiting to happen, and this game is going to feature a ton of offense with Coleman helping to pick up the slack as a receiver this week. This is a game where both Freeman and Coleman should go off, and I even like playing both of them together in this matchup. With the offense flying in this game, I want as much of it as I can get.

 

Fade: Ben Roethlisberger – Draft Kings $5,800 / Fan Duel $8,000 [PIT@NE]

Draft Kings is pricing him to make you play him, but don’t. Simple as this: Why would you play the road quarterback in New England with a Super Bowl birth on the line!!!

 

Stack of the Week:  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman [GB@DET] 




 

Mo’s DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Matt Ryan- DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $9,200 [GB@ATL]

Ryan is my favorite QB on the short slate. All three of his wide receivers have a favorable matchup according to PFF. The Green Bay secondary is atrocious. Obviously, this is the game to stack as it opened with nearly a 60 point over/under. So far on the season, Atlanta has hit the over 14 times and Green Bay has done it 12 times. Ryan has tossed at least 300 yards, which does get you the bonus on Draft Kings, seven different times this season. You have to go back to Week 14 of the 2015 season to find a game he did not put up a TD.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Randall Cobb- DraftKings - $5,600 / FanDuel - $6,900 [GB@ATL]

Cobb is $1,000 less than Adams on Draft Kings. Remember, Adams has the high ankle sprain that hobbled him in the past. In fact, out of the starting Green Bay WRs, Cobb is the only one not listed on the injury report. So, Jordy and Janis could only get in a partial practice so far. Neither Adams nor Allison have been able to go at all so far. That is huge. Rodgers really uses his practice time to develop chemistry and timing during the week as they perfect the game plan. That really is working in Cobb’s favor. Because Adams has been so involved, I think many fans will over look his injury. Cobb will be the one to benefit, as will you if you slid him into your DFS lineup. Cobb will face Brian Poole. According to PFF, on the season, Atlanta has allowed the 2nd most FF Points to opposing slot receivers.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: LeGarrette Blount - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $6,500 [PIT@NE]

Blount should be under-owned this week. There is likely going to be recency bias as the man did not score last week. Keep in mind, that was only the second time this season he failed to score at home. Also remember, he was sick last week and missed two days of practice. While he will be under-owned, his teammate, Lewis, will be over-owned as folks will chase that box score. But it is doubtful that Lewis will get another special teams TD, and his red zone score will likely go back to Blount. Remember Blount lead all RBs with red zone attempts as well as rushing TDs. So, playing Blount over Lewis could really vault you over a larger percentage of the field. The team is expected to score north of 28 points. You know they will be in the red zone on more than one occasion and Blount should be the New England back to take advantage.

 

Fade: Dion Lewis  - DraftKings - $5,300 / FanDuel - $7,000 [PIT@NE]

The Patriots are expected to rack up the second most points in the Conference Championships. That, combined with his output last week, Lewis could very well be one of the most owned players. However, I am not chasing last week’s box score. It is certainly doubtful he gets another special teams score. Now that Blount is healthy and back at practice, he will likely grab the red zone work, as he has all season long. Blount has by far, the most red zone carries in the NFL. He leads all backs with rushing TDs. Those facts are for a reason, the Patriots are not about to change what got them there. I will still have 10% ownership in Lewis, but I certainly want to be very under-weight with him, as the field will go overboard. Use that to your advantage.

 

Stack of the Week:   Matt Ryan / Julio Jones / Devonta Freeman / Taylor Gabriel




 

ØC's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 


Pillar: QB, Matt Ryan – ATLvsGB – Draft Kings $7,700 / Fan Duel $9,200

Matt Ryan, the front runner for the MVP award will show everyone why he should be so at home against the 27th total ranked defense and the 31st ranked pass defense against fantasy quarterbacks, . Also, Ryan has averaged 30 FF points per game in the last two home contests with no interceptions since Week 13. He’s not playing out of his mind like Rodgers has been forced to. He’s followed Shanahan’s direction and has successfully used the entire offense instead of focusing on one weapon, like Julio Jones. Ryan has throw touchdowns to 12 different players over the season, a record. Matty Ice also put up 24.4 FF points against Green Bay back in Week 8. There is nothing here telling you Ryan isn’t a great option for a slightly cheaper price.

 

Mid Price Core: RB, Devonta Freeman – ATLvsGB – Draft Kings $7,200 / Fan Duel $8,000

While the Packers are better against the rushing attack, Freeman still has double digit fantasy points in the last four games. Since the Falcon’s bye in Week 11, Freeman has nine rushing touchdowns (which doenst include the rushing and receiving TD against the Packers earlier this season). Tevin Coleman will undoubtedly take some work away, but that hasn’t stopped Freeman from amassing over 1000 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns this season. This offense is too powerful for one or two players. Atlanta can absolutely produce 5-6 top three fantasy players in each position.

 

Sleeper: WR, Chris Hogan – NEvsPIT – Draft Kings $3,900 / Fan Duel $5,500

When it comes to the Patriots, nothing is ever a guarantee. They can switch their game plan on a whim depending on how much the other team has farted that day. One game it can be a pounding ground game with LeGarrette Blount, and the next day Brady is catching TD passes from Edelman. As the Steelers do have a good defense (top 10 in most categories), ill look outside the box for a sleeper play. Hogan will receive lesser defensive coverage and already put up 95 receiving yards on the superior secondary of Houston. $3,900 is one of the cheapest options you can go with this week with a high ceiling. He has a thigh injury already said to not be bad enough to keep him out of the game, but as usual, check on his status early on Sunday.

 

Fade: RB, LeVeon Bell – PIT@NE – Draft Kings $10,300 / Fan Duel $9,500

Belichik and the Patriots defense are great at one thing, taking away the best part of your team. Ben Roethlisberger has 8.1 and 14.9 FF points respectively over the last two playoff games with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He is not a threat. Antonio Brown has been dealing with social media distractions all week plus not he’ll get Malcolm Butler on his ass the entire game. He’s the best receiver in the league and could see plenty of double coverage without another outside threat or TE on the Steelers to deal with. This leaves LeVeon Bell. I see stacked box after stacked box forcing Pittsburgh to use him in the pass game exclusively. Add in home field advantage, and I just don’t like it, especially for such a massive price.  

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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