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June 19, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons is poised to have a solid week on FanDuel and DraftKings - DFS

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 20 DFS Advice (Conference Championship Playoffs 2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 01/20/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 


Pillar: Matt Ryan - DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $9,200   [GB@ATL]

Starts crying…. Matt Ryan…. That’s my quarterback man. That is MY quarterback… Stops crying to immediately resume press conference. Ryan is the quarterback I want to play on this slate, and will ride or die with him finishing as the top overall scorer on the weekend. Ryan’s team has a huge implied point total, will be in the friendly confines of a dome, and gets to take on one of the worst secondaries in the league on a team that can hold up against the run. Ryan had a great game the last time these two teams played and his cast of pass catchers is a bit healthier than that of Rodgers’.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Jared Cook - DraftKings - $5,100 / FanDuel - $6,400 [GB@ATL]

Jared Cook suddenly looks like the far and away best tight end option on the slate with his recent involvement. Cook has seen a boatload of targets over the last six weeks and we have now seen more to his game. They have started to use Cook down the field as well as in the redzone and Aaron Rodgers is starting to forgive him when he makes his inevitable bone headed play. With nearly all of the Packers receivers banged up, Cook is the healthiest he has been all season long. Cook might be the chalkiest play of them all, but if you project him to out pace the other tight ends then it’s easy to fire him up.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: LeGarrette Blount - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $6,500 [PIT@NE]

LeGarrette Blount let a lot of people down last week, which could be good because of recency bias. Blount still saw a decent number of carries and was used near the goalline as the lead back. With Dion Lewis putting the ball on the ground twice last week, Blount could also be in line for a few extra carries throughout the game. The type of backs that Pittsburgh have struggled with this season are the big boys who can power through their undersized linebackers and secondary. Let me tell you the four running backs who have gone over 100 yards this season: Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Isaiah Crowell, and Ezekiel Elliott. Each of these guys tips the scales at over 220 pounds and are known as power runners. 

 

Fade: NO ONE - DraftKings - $3,000 / FanDuel - $5,000   [NFL@NFL]

Seriously, trying to take down a GPP this week requires some off the board plays no one can be argued as a strong fade.

 

Stack of the Week: Matt Ryan and Taylor Gabriel  [GB@ATL]




 

Houdini's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs 

 

 

Pillar: Aaron Rodgers – Draft Kings $8,100 / Fan Duel $9,600 [GB@ATL]

The Packers are going to need Aaron Rodgers to put up a lot of offense against the Falcons if the Packers are going to win this game. Green Bay is lacking a steady ground attack and that means Rodgers should throw more than 40 attempts again this week. In the regular season the Falcons were 30th against quarterbacks, allowing 18.7 fantasy points per game, and Aaron should easily eclipse that mark this week. Don’t get cute at quarterback and go with Rodgers.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: LaGarrette Blount – Draft Kings $4,400 / Fan Duel $6,500 [NE vs. PIT]

Blount is at a great price in Draft Kings and is still a value in Fan Duel. LaGarrette did basically nothing last week with just 31 rushing yards, but he is in line for a lot more looks this week. Dion Lewis stole the show last week, but he did fumble twice, which should give Blount more opportunities this week. The Steelers have also been victimized by bigger running backs, and the Patriots should look to ride Blount hard and heavy and in the second half of this game.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Tevin Coleman – Draft Kings $4,800 / Fan Duel $6,300 [ATL vs. GB]

I love Tevin Coleman this week against the Packers. Tevin is a big play waiting to happen, and this game is going to feature a ton of offense with Coleman helping to pick up the slack as a receiver this week. This is a game where both Freeman and Coleman should go off, and I even like playing both of them together in this matchup. With the offense flying in this game, I want as much of it as I can get.

 

Fade: Ben Roethlisberger – Draft Kings $5,800 / Fan Duel $8,000 [PIT@NE]

Draft Kings is pricing him to make you play him, but don’t. Simple as this: Why would you play the road quarterback in New England with a Super Bowl birth on the line!!!

 

Stack of the Week:  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman [GB@DET] 




 

Mo’s DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Matt Ryan- DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $9,200 [GB@ATL]

Ryan is my favorite QB on the short slate. All three of his wide receivers have a favorable matchup according to PFF. The Green Bay secondary is atrocious. Obviously, this is the game to stack as it opened with nearly a 60 point over/under. So far on the season, Atlanta has hit the over 14 times and Green Bay has done it 12 times. Ryan has tossed at least 300 yards, which does get you the bonus on Draft Kings, seven different times this season. You have to go back to Week 14 of the 2015 season to find a game he did not put up a TD.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Randall Cobb- DraftKings - $5,600 / FanDuel - $6,900 [GB@ATL]

Cobb is $1,000 less than Adams on Draft Kings. Remember, Adams has the high ankle sprain that hobbled him in the past. In fact, out of the starting Green Bay WRs, Cobb is the only one not listed on the injury report. So, Jordy and Janis could only get in a partial practice so far. Neither Adams nor Allison have been able to go at all so far. That is huge. Rodgers really uses his practice time to develop chemistry and timing during the week as they perfect the game plan. That really is working in Cobb’s favor. Because Adams has been so involved, I think many fans will over look his injury. Cobb will be the one to benefit, as will you if you slid him into your DFS lineup. Cobb will face Brian Poole. According to PFF, on the season, Atlanta has allowed the 2nd most FF Points to opposing slot receivers.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: LeGarrette Blount - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $6,500 [PIT@NE]

Blount should be under-owned this week. There is likely going to be recency bias as the man did not score last week. Keep in mind, that was only the second time this season he failed to score at home. Also remember, he was sick last week and missed two days of practice. While he will be under-owned, his teammate, Lewis, will be over-owned as folks will chase that box score. But it is doubtful that Lewis will get another special teams TD, and his red zone score will likely go back to Blount. Remember Blount lead all RBs with red zone attempts as well as rushing TDs. So, playing Blount over Lewis could really vault you over a larger percentage of the field. The team is expected to score north of 28 points. You know they will be in the red zone on more than one occasion and Blount should be the New England back to take advantage.

 

Fade: Dion Lewis  - DraftKings - $5,300 / FanDuel - $7,000 [PIT@NE]

The Patriots are expected to rack up the second most points in the Conference Championships. That, combined with his output last week, Lewis could very well be one of the most owned players. However, I am not chasing last week’s box score. It is certainly doubtful he gets another special teams score. Now that Blount is healthy and back at practice, he will likely grab the red zone work, as he has all season long. Blount has by far, the most red zone carries in the NFL. He leads all backs with rushing TDs. Those facts are for a reason, the Patriots are not about to change what got them there. I will still have 10% ownership in Lewis, but I certainly want to be very under-weight with him, as the field will go overboard. Use that to your advantage.

 

Stack of the Week:   Matt Ryan / Julio Jones / Devonta Freeman / Taylor Gabriel




 

ØC's DFS Picks Conference Championship Playoffs

 


Pillar: QB, Matt Ryan – ATLvsGB – Draft Kings $7,700 / Fan Duel $9,200

Matt Ryan, the front runner for the MVP award will show everyone why he should be so at home against the 27th total ranked defense and the 31st ranked pass defense against fantasy quarterbacks, . Also, Ryan has averaged 30 FF points per game in the last two home contests with no interceptions since Week 13. He’s not playing out of his mind like Rodgers has been forced to. He’s followed Shanahan’s direction and has successfully used the entire offense instead of focusing on one weapon, like Julio Jones. Ryan has throw touchdowns to 12 different players over the season, a record. Matty Ice also put up 24.4 FF points against Green Bay back in Week 8. There is nothing here telling you Ryan isn’t a great option for a slightly cheaper price.

 

Mid Price Core: RB, Devonta Freeman – ATLvsGB – Draft Kings $7,200 / Fan Duel $8,000

While the Packers are better against the rushing attack, Freeman still has double digit fantasy points in the last four games. Since the Falcon’s bye in Week 11, Freeman has nine rushing touchdowns (which doenst include the rushing and receiving TD against the Packers earlier this season). Tevin Coleman will undoubtedly take some work away, but that hasn’t stopped Freeman from amassing over 1000 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns this season. This offense is too powerful for one or two players. Atlanta can absolutely produce 5-6 top three fantasy players in each position.

 

Sleeper: WR, Chris Hogan – NEvsPIT – Draft Kings $3,900 / Fan Duel $5,500

When it comes to the Patriots, nothing is ever a guarantee. They can switch their game plan on a whim depending on how much the other team has farted that day. One game it can be a pounding ground game with LeGarrette Blount, and the next day Brady is catching TD passes from Edelman. As the Steelers do have a good defense (top 10 in most categories), ill look outside the box for a sleeper play. Hogan will receive lesser defensive coverage and already put up 95 receiving yards on the superior secondary of Houston. $3,900 is one of the cheapest options you can go with this week with a high ceiling. He has a thigh injury already said to not be bad enough to keep him out of the game, but as usual, check on his status early on Sunday.

 

Fade: RB, LeVeon Bell – PIT@NE – Draft Kings $10,300 / Fan Duel $9,500

Belichik and the Patriots defense are great at one thing, taking away the best part of your team. Ben Roethlisberger has 8.1 and 14.9 FF points respectively over the last two playoff games with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He is not a threat. Antonio Brown has been dealing with social media distractions all week plus not he’ll get Malcolm Butler on his ass the entire game. He’s the best receiver in the league and could see plenty of double coverage without another outside threat or TE on the Steelers to deal with. This leaves LeVeon Bell. I see stacked box after stacked box forcing Pittsburgh to use him in the pass game exclusively. Add in home field advantage, and I just don’t like it, especially for such a massive price.  

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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