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July 16, 2018
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LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 5

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 5 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 10/06/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 5 DFS



Pillar: WR, Dez Bryant  – FanDuel - $7,800 / DraftKings - $6,500

Dez Bryant has gotten through his tough slate of cornerbacks and now comes out on the rosy side. Taking on the Packers, where the team he caught it against, is as close to a revenge game as he gets at home. Dak has been playing great, but has missed Dez a number of times but going against the Packers has been a cure all for Dez. In three career regular season games Dez has averaged 11 targets 7 catches for 82.5 yards and has two touchdowns. The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, Dez compiled 9 catches on 12 targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Dez has yet to have a 100-yard game and has 18 in his career 101 regular season games, it is almost like he is due. The Packers have allowed each of A.J, Green and Julio Jones over 100 yards this season, and I will put some deniro on the line that Dez is next.

 

Sleepers: WR, Martavis Bryant – FanDuel - $5,700 / DraftKings - $5,000

Martavis Bryant has just been a hair off so far to start the season. He has missed two giant touchdown catches by just a foot, those are things that will end up correcting. He has also been involved in the redzone, as Bryant has been targeted in the end zone five times this season and has yet to convert a single one after being a dominant redzone performer previously in his career. His recent performance and the strength of the Jaguars corners have really pushed his price and his big play ability gives him a chance for a big score. While many are going to be scared off by the Jags, I am simply not one as the quarterbacks they have played this season have been a bag of caca.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: TE, Austin Seferian-Jenkins – FanDuel - $5,500 / DraftKings - $3,500

ASJ has gotten back involved in the offense after returning from his suspension and saw ten targets over the last two weeks. He has also been efficient with his targets catching nine of ten for 77 yards. Now in his third game back, ASJ gets a dreamy matchup against the Cleveland Browns who are allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have struggled defending the position for the last few seasons. In DraftKings scoring, three tight ends have scored 17.1 fantasy points or more against the Browns and for his current leisurely price, I am all in. The Browns have allowed guys named Jesse James and Tyler Kroft to put up two touchdown games, is Seferian-Jenkins next?

  

I’d Avoid: WR, A.J. Green – FanDuel - $8,300 / DraftKings - $8,200

Green has gotten back on track over the last two weeks hauling in fifteen passes on twenty targets for 174 yards and two touchdowns. This week, he faces the Buffalo Bills who have gotten off to a great start defensively. The Bills ability to get pressure this season has been great, and that has been the thorn in Dalton’s side to begin the season. Although Green should still have a nice game, he just seems to lack the upside of the other top receiving options because of the pace of play each of these teams have been working at. The Bengals defense has been improved as well, leaving me to believe that this will be a slugfest, which typically doesn’t help win tournaments. The Bills have allowed just 1 passing touchdown so far and have not let a receiver surpass the 100-yard mark, allowing me to fade Green this week.

 

 


ØC's Week 5 DFS


 

Pillar: QB, Aaron Rodgers – DraftKings $8,100 / FanDuel $9,500

Aaron Rodgers will play on the road against the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday. In DraftKings scoring, Rodgers has yet to post less than 20.5 FF points in any game. It’s this kind of consistency that can win you a contest, especially with Aaron as his ceiling could easily be 30-35 FF points. Dallas is also the 27th worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks and both Devante Adams and Ty Montgomery are on track to at least be available for the Packer offense this weekend. Flashback to the divisional playoff game between these two teams when Rodgers put up 355 passing yards and two touchdowns; I can easily see this happening again.

 

Sleeper: RB, Duke Johnson Jr. – DraftKings $4,900 / FanDuel $6,000

Duke has been on a roll these last two games, averaging 21.7 FF points in Draft Kings scoring. Johnson does 90% of his damage through the air, totaling 20 receptions and 207 yards with two total touchdowns, proving he should remain the #1 weapon in the Cleveland offense. Isaiah Crowell has been disappointing and rookie QB DeShone Kizer isn’t making any eye-popping throws, often dumping it down to Johnson out of the backfield. Duke always has an opportunity to break 20 FF points and at such a discount, he is a no-brainer against a faulty Jets defense.

 

Dart Throw: TE, Hunter Henry – DraftKings $3,800 / FanDuel $5,200

You wouldn’t normally consider Henry a “dart throw” per say, but the pure inconsistency of his fantasy performances is puzzling. Every other game thus far has resulted in a fantasy goose egg and with his first touchdown catch of the season last weekend, we should be in line for another big fat zero. “NOT SO FAST” as Lee Corso would say, the New York Giants are the worst defense against tight ends, allowing a floor of 12.7 FF points. I am not worried about the road game or Antonio Gates stealing targets. The season is already over for the Chargers, so why not try to develop the young guns?

 

I'd Avoid: RB, LeSean McCoy – DraftKings $7,800 / FanDuel $8,200

I have loved McCoy since he came into the league, but I despise how he’s being used this season. Rushing attempts of 22, 12, 14, and 20 are wildly inconsistent and nowhere near what he deserves as the best offensive talent for Buffalo. LeSean also has zero total touchdowns over the opening stretch of the season and Vulture Extraordinaire, Mike Tolbert, still lurks near the goal line. Now the Bills travel into a harsh Cincinnati environment against the 5th toughest rush defense in the league. McCoy is too rich for my blood this week.

 

Stack

QB, Aaron Rodgers

WR, Jordy Nelson

 

 

 

d-Rx's Week 5 DFS


Pillar: RB, Le'Veon Bell - FanDuel $9,500 / DraftKings $9,500

Point home team favorite which spells positive running game script, Vegas expects the Steelers to score 27 points. Jacksonville is so good at the pass, that teams funnel the run against their defense.


Sleeper: WR, Jaron Brown - FanDuel $4,500 / DraftKings $4,500

There are only 8 WRs that have more air yards than Jaron Brown, which he leads the team in air yards (up there with Diggs, Martavis, and has more than AJ Green). Only 3 teams are allowing more fantasy points per game than the Eagles, so I like what this guy is doing and what he can do in this specific matchup.

 

Dart Throw: WR, Aldrick Robinson - FanDuel $3,100 / DraftKings  $4,600

Marquise Goodwin has had 4 concussions in the last 14 months and is probably going to sit this one out. If he is indeed out, Aldrick will matchup against the Colts' Vontae Davis who according to PFF is the 3rd worst cornerback in the NFL. 


I'd Avoid: QB, Ben Roethlisberger - FanDuel $7,900 / DraftKings $6,400

The Jaguars are stout against the pass (the best so far actually), I know Big Ben is solid at home, but I think they run the hell out of Le'Veon Bell in this game.

 

Stack:

Le'Veon Bell & Pittsburgh Defense

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 5 -

 

ØC (2-2 | 422.9 pts) vs. d-Rx® (2-2 | 420.72 pts)

 

ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition - week 5 

 

  

FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017

 

FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 4 weeks 

 

 

 

 

DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017


DraftKings Points Allowed thru 4 weeks 

 

 

 

  

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