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Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate


On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.


02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11


The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.


02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left


New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.


02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz


Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.


02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids


The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.


02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs


The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.


02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.numberfire.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings - 2012

Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings - 2012

Posted by d-Rx on 06/14/12

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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tiers - tiered fantasy football ranking sheets

 

 

 

Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings - 2012

 

A quick overview of what tiered ranking sheets are: On one piece of paper you will have 4 columns, 1 for each position: QB, RB, WR and TE and within each column you will evaluate the value of players within sub tiers for each position. Think of each tier as a class ranking, Tier 1 is the best player or players in your view at that position and when you go to Tier 2, you are saying there is a drop off from the previous group and how many fantasy points they can score, and this second tier group. Really you are classifying every player at each position against the value of the other players you can draft at that same position. You can have as many sub tiers as you see fit, it's your call as long as those tier breaks are telling you something. The beauty of this approach is not just listing guys, you can do that anywhere - it's that you can compare where your highest rated guy at each position stands in one glance, because it's all on the same sheet. If you see a guy you have ranked high and names of players beneath that player on your list are getting checked off, you know - wow, the highest rated guy on my RB TIER sheet is still available, I should probably grab that guy for my next pick, because he presents the highest value in my mind's eye.

 

Please check out the first version of my TIERED RANKINGS FOR THE 2012 SEASON by clicking here

+++

 

Last August, leading up to the 2011 NFL season, I wrote a piece on this subject of TIERS in a ground-breaking piece that I called Tiers For Fears. I got a lot of flack for that name from my Pyro® partners, so I'm changing my second incarnation on the subject - to Tiers Of Joy. Wait, I am, what?! I've been brainwashed, this is what my partners want to call it this time around, and because I was in a docile mood I said ok, but good lord this title sounds like the title of a Tatum Channing & Amanda Seyfried straight to Netflix chick flick. Oye, let's just not call it anything, and focus in on the fact that constructing detailed tiers is the best way to walk out of your fantasy football draft with the best team this year. 

 

This is the third year we have been heavily promoting TIERED RANKING SHEETS as a must-do approach to achieving the best fantasy football draft results. I've been leading the charge on getting this drafting strategy out to our audience, like Hugh Hefner's bedside Viagra jar, it'll get your blood flowing. It's hands down the best way to walk out of your draft with the team that everyone in your league is talking about, and will give you the control to walk away with the team you actually pre-determined that you wanted. Injuries happen and sometimes your love affairs don't work out, just look at the divorce rate in America for heavens sake, but if you do the work you need and set your tiers up in a detailed and well organized manner, you will have the depth at your backup spots if anything should go wrong… and for the most part, they tend go wrong at some point.

 

I'll start this out by saying (in a Daniel Stern 'The Wonder Years' narrator voice) I started playing fantasy football in 1988, and the first player I ever drafted was Jerry Rice, fresh off of his record-breaking 22 TD season in a strike shortened 12 game MVP season. From that eye-opening draft until just 4 years ago, I would come into every draft with a legal pad filled with pilot pen written notes about my favorite players, maybe some notes on when to go for who, lists of sleeper picks and guys I wanted to stay away from, my favorite targets would have heavily drenched circles around their names and other players would have a big star next to them, just like something out of trapper keeper in any jr. high school. I would usually have a Fantasy Football Index magazine open to the blue page with their TD-only or Yardage/TD rankings "cheat sheets" with more notes and stars next to those, maybe even a highlighter adding to the confusion. During the draft I would keep track of things and the players I was targeting between the magazine and my notes. For the most part, it was all fine and dandy, I did pretty well, always had a formidable team (except for a depressing season or two; cough, cough) and won a few championships along the way.

 

Hindsight being 20/20, it's obvious to me now that I would have had a far better fantasy football record and had more plaques on our league trophies had I used the tiered scoring system I am talking about here from the very start of my career.

 

Can't look back in the rear-view mirror and have regrets, so you must move forward with your loaded gun of newfound knowledge. The most important thing about TIERS is that you have a bird's eye view of what you want for your team versus what is available at each position when the draft is happening and you are in real-time. If a run of TEs is happening, and you want one of the top guys, your sheet can tell you who to grab; but even more importantly, tiers allows you to jump off on trends and grab the highest rated player you may have at another position that is bound to be the subject of the next run that happens. Be the trend starter, not the trend follower. You need to have an organized method to keep up with what's happening in the draft and what other people are in need of, who they seem to be targeting, the best way for that is paying close attention to the real time draft room results. Even if you are at the draft with your homies, if there isn't a draft board, you need to have that information at the tip of your fingers. It's almost your main focus draft night, what's happening... you have the TIERS, so that part is done and ready for you to utilize, focus on who's got what on their team, and who needs what to help fill it. This will help you grab a guy that would be gone next time around, instead of taking a guy early you could have a couple rounds later. THIS FALLS UNDER THE KNOW YOUR LEAGUE (listen to this podcast here) PARADIGM!

 

Your tiers all being on one sheet right in front of you, helps you be in control in the heat of the moment. If you are turning pages of the magazine and trying to compare a couple guys you are considering while you are on the clock, you'll rush it - you'll panic and you will most likely make the wrong pick. I've done this literally hundreds of times, I speak from years of experience on this fact. Championship teams are rarely created while you rush thru the information and are doing game log stat comparisons while it's your pick! Put the time in before, get it right - get it to where you feel like they are the correct assumptions to get your rankings within the tiers spot on, and you'll be amazed at how fun and successful your draft will go. It's not rocket science! Nothing I preach is, it's just preparation.

 

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. I had Tim Tebow, Victor Cruz and Cam Newton all higher on my board than most people last year, and my tiers reflected that, so when I was late in the draft, and it was time to grab my 6th WR, I'm prepared to get lucky by taking a flyer on the upside of Victor Cruz over the marginal output I would have been given by taking a subpar starter like Josh Morgan. Take a chance in your mid to late tiers, be willing to make a ballsy pick, because that call could be the difference maker on a championship caliber team. Getting a guy you know will have 650 yards and 6 TDs will not bring you a crown.

 

The reason why tiers are the best is they give you the most control in the heat of the moment. You are like a Hawk in the sky surveying the land below you, you are Ed Harris in the Truman Show running the show when you arrive at your FF draft with your well researched and analyzed TIER SHEETS in tow. Houdini always says it "do the homework", work hard before hand on your tiers, when you think they are done, compare every guy within 5 people of one another at each position in your rankings and ask:

 

WOULD I DRAFT THE UPSIDE OF TITUS YOUNG RIGHT HERE OR SHOULD I GO FOR THE STABILITY OF ANQUAN BOLDIN HERE?

 

Compare the guys in close tiers and ask the question, "would I take player A in my draft and feel better about it than going with player B, who's maybe a safer pick?" Decide whether upside or consistency is important to you on this pick. But if you do that comparison on a number of guys and really think it thru at the granular level prior to when your pick is on the clock, that pick is going to be a pretty simple one to make when the time comes and you are drafting.

 

When there is a run happening in my draft, the first thing I do is look at my tiers and try to see if there is someone at a different position than it appears to be a run on - and try to swoop up the best value and go against the grain. I don't advocate getting tricky and trying to be too sneaky at all, but most of the times trendy people regret what they were drawn to after the fact. 

 

This may seem unimportant, but when you create really tight tiers leading up to the draft, it's like memorizing your lines or studying hard for a big test (not cramming), you are going to be more successful. We've all said it and heard it: "I've barely studied at all for this draft, oh well, I rule at this anyway"… only to kick ourselves in the arse for the entire season for being lazy while we have no shot at a playoff birth by week 6. From this point forward, do yourself a favor and don't be that guy. Become a Champion, not a league donor. Put the work in, craft your tiers deligently and try to tear them down, and continually refine them, if you really do this - I promise amazing results.

 

Food for thought on why TIERS are the way to go and I mention some do's and don't that can help you along the way:

 

-Your tier sheet will have all your favorite players at every position on 1 easy to see all at once page.


-If you check off all the players that are getting drafted by other teams, you can see guys you like better still available higher up on your list.


-Do the who would I draft this guy or that guy test on every player at every position that you consider a close call prior to draft night.


-Don't do a cram job with your tiers, let them breathe, start early and refine till you nail it prior to your draft.


-On draft day if you pick a guy that you have lower on your tier than an available guy at the same position - you failed. Stick to the tiers to a T.


-Tiers allow you to see trends, but you also need to have a draft chart, so you know what position needs the teams near you may have. 


-Tiers are a great means to finding gems in the second half of the draft, FYI- get a little ballsy at the end.


-"Need based drafting" is best achieved with solid TIERED RANKING SHEETS in any draft.


-Take a chance! With tiers you need to put guys you really want on your team higher than orders would put them.


-Upside is important, don't be afraid in your research to overvalue a guy you think is due, and primed for a good year.


-You can have fun at your draft and drink a lot of beers and eat more slices of pizza than usual because you already did the legwork!


-If you can print out on a 11x17 piece of paper, it gives you a plenty of room for important notes.


-Know who you want to pick with your first pick without looking at your tier sheets, you still want to envision your first few picks.


-Last year my 8-10 pick in my main league were Wes Welker, Steve Smith and Marshawn Lynch… I owned up to my tiers.


-Before you touch your tiers, do the research… learn the information and look at the data to define the true value of guys and their current situations.


-Make sure you take my tiers system and make it your own, move players around based on your beliefs - don't just take my word for it.


-Tiers allows you to see your determined drop off at each position so you can target the right guy at each pick before that drop happens.


-Be confident with your tiers and you will prosper.


-Be smart with not going to early on TIER 1 tight ends, but TIERS can help you grab the second best tight end instead of the 10th best WR.


It's pretty simple, I've always fashioned myself a solid fantasy football owner, but with this system in place and the homework being done… it's unstoppable. In the 4 season since I started using this detailed tier system for my drafts, I have: won 1 championship, lost in two championships, had the most points in my league twice (if AP28 didn't get hurt last year 3 times), and had the best overall record in my 10 man league twice… it's been a nice run. One that will continue this season because I have already done my first TIER SHEET in June and will continue to refine it (for myself and for you guys) until draft day.

 

Just listen to me here, this shit works. Much love! //d-Rx®

 

 

We do a great weekly fantasy football podcast: http://pyromaniac.buzzsprout.com

We are active on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac

We tweet: http://twitter.com/pyroman1ac

 

 

 

For more awesomeness, please listen to our podcast on Tiers by clicking play below:

 

 

My Last Years 2011 Tiers Video: