Week 15
December 16, 2017
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Stefon Diggs

Minnesota Vikings

Diggin' It and Thielen It


The Vikings have played five out of their last six games on the road. They return home this week to face a banged-up Bengals defense and Kyle Rudolph is out. Stefon Diggs has played in four home games this year. He has hit 27.7 and 40.3 on DK in two of them.

Fantasy Goo: Diggs has never played a game without Rudolph in the line-up, so we don’t really know how this will affect his targets. Cincinnati has been without both starting CB’s, but may get Dre Kirkpatrick back this week. I have Diggs as a WR2/Flex this week with Thielen being a solid WR1, must start.


12/15/17, 05:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Robert Woods

Los Angeles Rams

Back in Action


Seahawks Weeks 1-9 (With Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 2nd
Explosive pass rate allowed:19th
Weeks 11-14 (Without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 22nd
Explosive pass rate allowed: 24th

Fantasy Goo: Robert Woods comes back this week, so I’m moving Watkins way down. Watkins production went up about 70% across the board with Woods out. Kupp’s production went up with Woods out as well, but even with Woods in the line-up he was second on the team in targets. Woods might need to knock some rust off after being out for three weeks so I have Woods and Kupp in the WR3/Flex range, and feel safe with starting either one.


12/15/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jag's Starting JAG's


Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette missed his third straight day of practice today due to his quad injury. No practice all week.

Fantasy Goo: I expect Yeldon and Ivory to split the touches if Fournette doesn’t play, neither seems to be worth starting, but Houston has given up five rushing TD’s in the past three games (one to a QB).


12/15/17, 05:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Howard

Chicago Bears

Here Comes the BOOM!


Detroit is allowing 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game over the past five weeks, the most in the league, they have also allowed a rushing touchdown in eight straight games. Jordan Howard is tied for the most runs of 10 or more yards (30) on the season. Howard has had 12 100-yard rushing games in his first two seasons and he wasn’t even the starter the first four games last year.

Fantasy Goo: Howard is really boom-bust, he has yet to pair together fantasy RB1 weeks this year. He had a huge game last week and his match-up this week is just too sweet to think that he won’t be able to break this trend.


12/15/17, 05:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

In the Clear


Zach Ertz has cleared the concussion protocol and will play this week.

He’s pretty much ranked as the number three TE across the industry, but I think he lacks the boom upside we might think he has against the Giants. His production with Foles, back in 2013, was only slightly lower than his production this year. In the first nine games the Giants gave up a TD to a TE in every game. In the last four games the Giants have only given up one, to Jason Witten, who has historically torched the Giants, it was his only catch of the game. They even managed to keep Kelce out of the end-zone, I believe a couple of OPI’s were involved there and Kelce did get 109 yards receiving though. I believe Ertz is a prime candidate for 5/50/1, but I don’t expect him to win you your week or be worth paying up for in DFS.


12/15/17, 05:11 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles

Not Skipping a Beat


Carson Wentz is out for the season, and maybe some of Next season with a torn ACL. Over their first 24 games Foles has more TD’s, fewer INT’s, and more yards that Wentz has in his first 24 games. Foles was a Pro Bowler who threw 27 TD & 2 INT with the Eagles in 2013. The last time Nick Foles faced the Raiders, he threw for 7 TDs.

Fantasy Goo: I’m not saying there won’t be an adjustment period and I’m not trying to say the Eagles are better-off without Wentz, but Foles is a very capable back-up and if he can stir-up that 2013 magic the Eagles should be fine. Normally I’d say wait a week before starting Foles or any of the skill position players on the Eagles, but with it being week 15 and the match-up being a weak Giants defense, I’m starting them all as you usually would.


12/13/17, 03:59 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Lamar Miller

Houston Texans

Miller a Solid Cash Play on DFS


Miller will face the 49'ers, who according to Football Outsiders ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA.

Fantasy Goo: In the last 3 weeks, Miller is 6th in total carries. In cash games, you want opportunity. Considering the 49'ers run one of the fastest paced offenses in the league, his carries, already in the top 10 in recent weeks, should see an increase.


12/10/17, 11:14 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Gio Free Square


Gio is gets the starting role today as there as Mixon is out.

Fantasy Goo: The man is only $3100 on Draft Kings. The Baengals are home and 6 point favorites. The game script could easily favor the ground game, which means Gio should get plenty of touches to surpass 3X value.


12/10/17, 10:57 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Still in Concussion Protocol


Eagles still want to look at TE Zach Ertz and his concussion on Sunday, but he is considered doubtful for game vs. Rams even though he is listed as questionable.

Fantasy Goo: Trey Burton has been a big name all week, going for 4 receptions for 42 yards after Ertz’s exit last week. Burton is a versatile athlete, but not a premier TE like Ertz. His good numbers came against Denver which is giving up the second most points to the TE position this year. Philly faces the Rams this week who are sixth best in fantasy points allowed. I'm not considering Burton a good stream this week.


12/10/17, 10:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ameer Abdullah

Detroit Lions

Pain in the Neck


Detroit Lions RB Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable) is not expected to play today, source said, though it's more for play than injury reasons. Detroit is trying other players to improve the run game.

Fantasy Goo: This isn’t surprising given Abdullah’s disappointing performances over the past year and more.
Tion Green led the team with 51 rushing yards in his debut last week, and figures to be the Lions' ball-carrier Sunday in Tampa. Pass-catcher Theo Riddick will see reps as well and I expect that he has a safer floor especially in PPR.


12/10/17, 10:05 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Primed for Monday Return


Hogan has been out the past four weeks and has basically caused me a playoff berth in one of my dynasty leagues. If you’re still in it I’d get him into the line-up. With Gronk out Hogan should see a solid number of targets.


12/10/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

It's A Trap


Source says, if Cooper can cut at full speed and start and stop in pregame workout, they will use him on a limited basis or “pitch count.” Calls it a “very dramatic turnaround” from what team was expecting 48 hours ago.

Fantasy Goo: Total decoy move, I’m not starting him even if he is healthy enough to play. Cooper went for 11/210/2 when he faced the Chiefs in Week 7, so it is tempting to put him in, but you’ve got to figure that the Raiders want him in there just so the Chiefs have to play coverage his way and leave Crabtree in single coverage.


12/10/17, 10:01 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Todd Gurley

Los Angeles Rams

Lower Expectations This Week


Todd Gurley has just 1 TD over his last four games, but still has finished as RB6, RB16, RB8, and RB7 in those games. The TD came in the RB16 week. Insane usage AND efficiency from Gurley.

Fantasy Goo: He’s been the most consistent RB1 for the entire season, which is a nice turn-around from a disappointing 2016. He faces the Eagles this week who are second-best in fantasy points allowed to the RB position this year. I think we have to start him, but expectations must be lowered. He’s a fade in DFS this week.


12/09/17, 12:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Josh Gordon

Cleveland Browns

Balls Flying Everywhere


Per @rotounderworld, 70% of DeShone Kizer's pass attempts have been catchable balls, the third-lowest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. Winds expected near 20 mph in Cleveland this week.

Fantasy Goo: I would not consider starting Kizer at any point this year, but the key question here is will he be able to get the ball anywhere near Josh Gordon. He was only able to catch 4 of the 11 balls thrown in his direction last week, but he was going against one of the top corners in the league. He was still able to rack up 85 yards, and had over 200 air-yards, so we can be confident the opportunity will be there. If I had him anywhere I would most likely start him and will probably have him ranked as a mid-range WR2.


12/09/17, 12:53 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andy Dalton

Cincinnati Bengals

Red Rocket Time


Andy Dalton’s finishes last 3 weeks: QB9, QB12, QB6. Over the last 3 wks he is QB 7.
This week he faces Chicago whose pass defense over the past 3 games is allowing a QBR of 103, a 68% completion percentage, and 6th highest passing percentage for 1st downs.

Fantasy Goo: Dalton is a viable streamer this week, but I hesitate to rank him in the top 12. If you’re in the playoffs you’re probably just riding with what got you there, but if you’re stuck with a questionable match-up Dalton is a solid option. Also consider that while Chicago’s defense has looked good most of the year, their best games have been at home, this game is in Cincinnati.


12/09/17, 12:50 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Sore Knee Opens Door for Peterman


Nathan Peterman has taken all the first-team reps and it would be utterly shocking if he’s not the starter in a game the Bills must win if they hope to entertain any further thoughts about staying alive in the AFC wild-card playoff chase.

Fantasy Goo: This is a dream match-up, but I wouldn’t consider starting Peterman after his last performance (5 Int’s). If Taylor is able to start we should probably pump the breaks on him as well. The match-up is great, but his knee is the issue holding him back, if he loses his rushing numbers he loses his fantasy upside.


12/09/17, 12:45 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.democratandchronicle.com


Kenyan Drake

Miami Dolphins

Love the Drake


Per PFF, Percentage of Touches With At Least One Missed Tackle Forced:
Kenyan Drake: 25.7% (4th-best), Jay Ajayi: 15.7% (25th-of-50)

Fantasy Goo: Damien Williams is out so Drake should see 20+ touches, even in negative game-script he’ll get catches out of the backfield. When we are looking for a starting RB the first thing to look at is opportunity, and it’s definitely there this week.


12/07/17, 08:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

The Belichick Shuffle


Rex Burkhead has scored a touchdown once every 13.2 touches. Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown once every 13.3 touches.

Fantasy Goo: Burkhead has seen as many touches as Lewis over the past two weeks and is getting goal-line carries, against Miami this week I’ll consider them both RB2’s.


12/07/17, 07:55 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devin Funchess

Carolina Panthers

Momentum vs Match-Up


Since Kelvin Benjamin was traded, Devin Funchess has averaged 18.4 PPR PPG. That would be good enough for the WR5 on the full season.

Fantasy Goo: Funchess will be facing Xavier Rhodes this week, Rhodes has been slowed by injuries over the past few weeks, but seems to be coming back to health. I’m certainly not considering him as a WR1 this week and if you’re in the playoffs you probably have other options, but if you don’t go with what got you there.


12/07/17, 07:52 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Mark Ingram

New Orleans Saints

Pair of Aces


The Panthers allowed more RB1 games in Week 13 (2) than they had the rest of the season combined (1).

Fantasy Goo: The Saints running game is for real, Kamara and Ingram are both must-starts. They could shred a middle-of-the-road run defense like Atlanta.


12/07/17, 07:21 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Pair of Aces


The Panthers allowed more RB1 games in Week 13 (2) than they had the rest of the season combined (1).

Fantasy Goo: The Saints running game is for real, Kamara and Ingram are both must-starts. They could shred a middle-of-the-road run defense like Atlanta.


12/07/17, 07:21 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings - 2012

Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings - 2012

Posted by d-Rx on 06/14/12

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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tiers - tiered fantasy football ranking sheets

 

 

 

Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings - 2012

 

A quick overview of what tiered ranking sheets are: On one piece of paper you will have 4 columns, 1 for each position: QB, RB, WR and TE and within each column you will evaluate the value of players within sub tiers for each position. Think of each tier as a class ranking, Tier 1 is the best player or players in your view at that position and when you go to Tier 2, you are saying there is a drop off from the previous group and how many fantasy points they can score, and this second tier group. Really you are classifying every player at each position against the value of the other players you can draft at that same position. You can have as many sub tiers as you see fit, it's your call as long as those tier breaks are telling you something. The beauty of this approach is not just listing guys, you can do that anywhere - it's that you can compare where your highest rated guy at each position stands in one glance, because it's all on the same sheet. If you see a guy you have ranked high and names of players beneath that player on your list are getting checked off, you know - wow, the highest rated guy on my RB TIER sheet is still available, I should probably grab that guy for my next pick, because he presents the highest value in my mind's eye.

 

Please check out the first version of my TIERED RANKINGS FOR THE 2012 SEASON by clicking here

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Last August, leading up to the 2011 NFL season, I wrote a piece on this subject of TIERS in a ground-breaking piece that I called Tiers For Fears. I got a lot of flack for that name from my Pyro® partners, so I'm changing my second incarnation on the subject - to Tiers Of Joy. Wait, I am, what?! I've been brainwashed, this is what my partners want to call it this time around, and because I was in a docile mood I said ok, but good lord this title sounds like the title of a Tatum Channing & Amanda Seyfried straight to Netflix chick flick. Oye, let's just not call it anything, and focus in on the fact that constructing detailed tiers is the best way to walk out of your fantasy football draft with the best team this year. 

 

This is the third year we have been heavily promoting TIERED RANKING SHEETS as a must-do approach to achieving the best fantasy football draft results. I've been leading the charge on getting this drafting strategy out to our audience, like Hugh Hefner's bedside Viagra jar, it'll get your blood flowing. It's hands down the best way to walk out of your draft with the team that everyone in your league is talking about, and will give you the control to walk away with the team you actually pre-determined that you wanted. Injuries happen and sometimes your love affairs don't work out, just look at the divorce rate in America for heavens sake, but if you do the work you need and set your tiers up in a detailed and well organized manner, you will have the depth at your backup spots if anything should go wrong… and for the most part, they tend go wrong at some point.

 

I'll start this out by saying (in a Daniel Stern 'The Wonder Years' narrator voice) I started playing fantasy football in 1988, and the first player I ever drafted was Jerry Rice, fresh off of his record-breaking 22 TD season in a strike shortened 12 game MVP season. From that eye-opening draft until just 4 years ago, I would come into every draft with a legal pad filled with pilot pen written notes about my favorite players, maybe some notes on when to go for who, lists of sleeper picks and guys I wanted to stay away from, my favorite targets would have heavily drenched circles around their names and other players would have a big star next to them, just like something out of trapper keeper in any jr. high school. I would usually have a Fantasy Football Index magazine open to the blue page with their TD-only or Yardage/TD rankings "cheat sheets" with more notes and stars next to those, maybe even a highlighter adding to the confusion. During the draft I would keep track of things and the players I was targeting between the magazine and my notes. For the most part, it was all fine and dandy, I did pretty well, always had a formidable team (except for a depressing season or two; cough, cough) and won a few championships along the way.

 

Hindsight being 20/20, it's obvious to me now that I would have had a far better fantasy football record and had more plaques on our league trophies had I used the tiered scoring system I am talking about here from the very start of my career.

 

Can't look back in the rear-view mirror and have regrets, so you must move forward with your loaded gun of newfound knowledge. The most important thing about TIERS is that you have a bird's eye view of what you want for your team versus what is available at each position when the draft is happening and you are in real-time. If a run of TEs is happening, and you want one of the top guys, your sheet can tell you who to grab; but even more importantly, tiers allows you to jump off on trends and grab the highest rated player you may have at another position that is bound to be the subject of the next run that happens. Be the trend starter, not the trend follower. You need to have an organized method to keep up with what's happening in the draft and what other people are in need of, who they seem to be targeting, the best way for that is paying close attention to the real time draft room results. Even if you are at the draft with your homies, if there isn't a draft board, you need to have that information at the tip of your fingers. It's almost your main focus draft night, what's happening... you have the TIERS, so that part is done and ready for you to utilize, focus on who's got what on their team, and who needs what to help fill it. This will help you grab a guy that would be gone next time around, instead of taking a guy early you could have a couple rounds later. THIS FALLS UNDER THE KNOW YOUR LEAGUE (listen to this podcast here) PARADIGM!

 

Your tiers all being on one sheet right in front of you, helps you be in control in the heat of the moment. If you are turning pages of the magazine and trying to compare a couple guys you are considering while you are on the clock, you'll rush it - you'll panic and you will most likely make the wrong pick. I've done this literally hundreds of times, I speak from years of experience on this fact. Championship teams are rarely created while you rush thru the information and are doing game log stat comparisons while it's your pick! Put the time in before, get it right - get it to where you feel like they are the correct assumptions to get your rankings within the tiers spot on, and you'll be amazed at how fun and successful your draft will go. It's not rocket science! Nothing I preach is, it's just preparation.

 

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. I had Tim Tebow, Victor Cruz and Cam Newton all higher on my board than most people last year, and my tiers reflected that, so when I was late in the draft, and it was time to grab my 6th WR, I'm prepared to get lucky by taking a flyer on the upside of Victor Cruz over the marginal output I would have been given by taking a subpar starter like Josh Morgan. Take a chance in your mid to late tiers, be willing to make a ballsy pick, because that call could be the difference maker on a championship caliber team. Getting a guy you know will have 650 yards and 6 TDs will not bring you a crown.

 

The reason why tiers are the best is they give you the most control in the heat of the moment. You are like a Hawk in the sky surveying the land below you, you are Ed Harris in the Truman Show running the show when you arrive at your FF draft with your well researched and analyzed TIER SHEETS in tow. Houdini always says it "do the homework", work hard before hand on your tiers, when you think they are done, compare every guy within 5 people of one another at each position in your rankings and ask:

 

WOULD I DRAFT THE UPSIDE OF TITUS YOUNG RIGHT HERE OR SHOULD I GO FOR THE STABILITY OF ANQUAN BOLDIN HERE?

 

Compare the guys in close tiers and ask the question, "would I take player A in my draft and feel better about it than going with player B, who's maybe a safer pick?" Decide whether upside or consistency is important to you on this pick. But if you do that comparison on a number of guys and really think it thru at the granular level prior to when your pick is on the clock, that pick is going to be a pretty simple one to make when the time comes and you are drafting.

 

When there is a run happening in my draft, the first thing I do is look at my tiers and try to see if there is someone at a different position than it appears to be a run on - and try to swoop up the best value and go against the grain. I don't advocate getting tricky and trying to be too sneaky at all, but most of the times trendy people regret what they were drawn to after the fact. 

 

This may seem unimportant, but when you create really tight tiers leading up to the draft, it's like memorizing your lines or studying hard for a big test (not cramming), you are going to be more successful. We've all said it and heard it: "I've barely studied at all for this draft, oh well, I rule at this anyway"… only to kick ourselves in the arse for the entire season for being lazy while we have no shot at a playoff birth by week 6. From this point forward, do yourself a favor and don't be that guy. Become a Champion, not a league donor. Put the work in, craft your tiers deligently and try to tear them down, and continually refine them, if you really do this - I promise amazing results.

 

Food for thought on why TIERS are the way to go and I mention some do's and don't that can help you along the way:

 

-Your tier sheet will have all your favorite players at every position on 1 easy to see all at once page.


-If you check off all the players that are getting drafted by other teams, you can see guys you like better still available higher up on your list.


-Do the who would I draft this guy or that guy test on every player at every position that you consider a close call prior to draft night.


-Don't do a cram job with your tiers, let them breathe, start early and refine till you nail it prior to your draft.


-On draft day if you pick a guy that you have lower on your tier than an available guy at the same position - you failed. Stick to the tiers to a T.


-Tiers allow you to see trends, but you also need to have a draft chart, so you know what position needs the teams near you may have. 


-Tiers are a great means to finding gems in the second half of the draft, FYI- get a little ballsy at the end.


-"Need based drafting" is best achieved with solid TIERED RANKING SHEETS in any draft.


-Take a chance! With tiers you need to put guys you really want on your team higher than orders would put them.


-Upside is important, don't be afraid in your research to overvalue a guy you think is due, and primed for a good year.


-You can have fun at your draft and drink a lot of beers and eat more slices of pizza than usual because you already did the legwork!


-If you can print out on a 11x17 piece of paper, it gives you a plenty of room for important notes.


-Know who you want to pick with your first pick without looking at your tier sheets, you still want to envision your first few picks.


-Last year my 8-10 pick in my main league were Wes Welker, Steve Smith and Marshawn Lynch… I owned up to my tiers.


-Before you touch your tiers, do the research… learn the information and look at the data to define the true value of guys and their current situations.


-Make sure you take my tiers system and make it your own, move players around based on your beliefs - don't just take my word for it.


-Tiers allows you to see your determined drop off at each position so you can target the right guy at each pick before that drop happens.


-Be confident with your tiers and you will prosper.


-Be smart with not going to early on TIER 1 tight ends, but TIERS can help you grab the second best tight end instead of the 10th best WR.


It's pretty simple, I've always fashioned myself a solid fantasy football owner, but with this system in place and the homework being done… it's unstoppable. In the 4 season since I started using this detailed tier system for my drafts, I have: won 1 championship, lost in two championships, had the most points in my league twice (if AP28 didn't get hurt last year 3 times), and had the best overall record in my 10 man league twice… it's been a nice run. One that will continue this season because I have already done my first TIER SHEET in June and will continue to refine it (for myself and for you guys) until draft day.

 

Just listen to me here, this shit works. Much love! //d-Rx®

 

 

We do a great weekly fantasy football podcast: http://pyromaniac.buzzsprout.com

We are active on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac

We tweet: http://twitter.com/pyroman1ac

 

 

 

For more awesomeness, please listen to our podcast on Tiers by clicking play below:

 

 

My Last Years 2011 Tiers Video: