Top 10 Burning Questions for the 2012 Season-  08/01/12

 

Top 10 Burning Questions for the 2012 Season

 

We’re less than  weeks away from the season opener in New York—technically, New Jersey—and as we slog through one of the hottest summers in recent memory, it’s time to consider some of the hotter topics in the NFL/fantasy football world. Since this is the 2012 season, we felt it’d only be appropriate to do 12 instead of the traditional 10, but 12’s kind of a weird number, so 10 it is(1).

 

 

1.  Is Arian Foster the #1 pick in fantasy drafts this season?

 

Two seasons ago, Arian Foster, the brahma bull(2) of the Texans’ offense, led all running backs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receiving yards (1616, 16, 604) and became the biggest surprise of 2010. Last season, with expectations significantly higher, those numbers were a bit lower (1224, 10, 617), but they were still good enough for 5th in rushing yards, 7th in rushing touchdowns, and 3rd in receiving yards, respectively. Very well done for someone who missed 2 games to a nagging hamstring injury and 1 game to rest(3).  But what about this season?

 

Considering that the 2 games he missed to injury were in weeks 1 and 3 and that he rushed for 285 yards and 3 TDs in the playoffs, it’s safe to say that the hamstring injury’s no longer an issue and he has a clean bill of health. Foster’s 604 carries over the past two years put him near the top of the carries list for the past two seasons, meaning a significant amount of wear, but it’s nothing his yet to be 26 year-old body can’t handle.

 

The Texans are returning 9 of their other 10 guys on offense. Guard Mike Brisiel left to the Oakland Raiders, but his likely replacement, the similarly built Rashad Butler, should be able to hold his section of the line and give Foster plenty of daylight.  The Texans’ also have a favorable schedule. They’re only playing 5 games against a top ten rushing defense and two of those are against familiar division rival, Jacksonville.

 

So, what’s the verdict?

 

Arian Foster has the tools, the track record, the team, and the schedule to be the top producing running back in the fantasy game. That of course, is unless he suffers an injury or he has an unforeseen, Larry Johnson-esque(4) drop in production.

 

But, does potentially being the top running back warrant spending a #1 pick on him? Wouldn’t you be better off using that pick on a quarterback who racks up more points? Yes and no, respectively. 

 

Yes, Arian Foster warrants a number one pick. Unless your league uses a very unorthodox scoring system, rushing TDs are one of the most valuable commodities in the fantasy game. Most years, the top running back in the league averages a little over 1 RuTD/ Gm (last year, league leader LeSean McCoy had 17 total for an average of 1.06). Foster only had 10, but let’s keep in mind the 3 games he missed. Had he played in those games, which included two against the Titans and Colts, the 24th and 29th ranked defenses against the run, Foster could’ve added at least 3 or 4 more TDs to that total.

 

And it’s not just the RuTDs. Given his 94.2 RuYa/Gm and 47.5 RecYa/Gm averages from 2011, penciling in Foster for 1600 RuYa, 700 RecYa, and 2 RecTD in 2012 isn’t farfetched. This would give him a line of about 1600 RuYa, 70 RecYa, 14 RuTD, and 2 RecTD. That’s a better line than Ray Rice’s, LeSean McCoy’s, and MJD’s from last season and a comparable one to his own from 2010. 

 

As for taking a quarterback at number one instead. Before you make that click, consider that last season there were 10 quarterbacks who threw for 4,000+ yards, 5 who threw for 30+ TDs (also 2 who threw for 29), and 6 who had a QBRating of over 95 (4,000+ yards, 30+ TDs, and a QBRating of over 95 being considered elite(5)).  At running back though, there were only 7 running backs who rushed for 1200+ yards, four who ran for 12+ TDs, and 5 who had 450 RecYa or more. Simply put, the drop off from the very top to the middle of the pack is much greater at the running back position.

 

That means, that if you have the #1 pick and you use it on the top quarterback (Aaron Rodgers), by the time you choose your second player, you could, realistically, end up having to draft Darren McFadden as your number one running back. McFadden’s not a bad running back, but he’s a 3rd tier one at best. The difference between him and Foster would be about 400 RuYa, 6 or 7 RuTD, and 350 RecYa. That’s the equivalent of 4 or 5 games of 1st tier production.

 

Now, if you use that #1 pick on the top running back and wait to draft your quarterback, you could, realistically, end up drafting Matthew Stafford or Drew Brees, two 2nd tier guys, and lose, at most, only about 200 PaYa and 5 PaTD. Worst case scenario, you get a Matt Ryan and end up losing about 400 PaYa and 8 PaTD(6). It’s a sizable number of points, but still significantly fewer than what you’d lose by passing on Foster.

 

 

2.  Maurice Jones-Drew—Can fantasy owners expect a repeat of his 2011 performance?

 

 

MJD might not have been the top performing running back in fantasy, but he was the NFL’s leading rusher with 1606 yards, besting his previous mark by almost 300 yards. It came as a surprise to some, but if you look at the data, it really shouldn’t have.

 

In the three seasons since he stopped sharing carries with Fred Taylor, MJD’s been ranked 1st, 8th, and 5th in carries and 1st, 5th, and 4th in yards, and his 4.7 yards per carry were good enough for 5th among all running backs with 200 carries or more, better than Arian Foster’s 4.4. He’s been getting the rock often and he’s run it up and downfield consistently for significant gains each time. The only knock against him numbers-wise is his less than stellar production in the red zone the last two seasons, scoring only 8 RuTDs in 2011 and 5 RuTDs in 2010. That was a severe drop from his career high 15 and even the 13 of his rookie year.

 

Team wise, the Jaguars are giving MJD enough to repeat his performance. They’re returning everyone on the line, full back Greg Jones, and tight end Marcedes Lewis. They’re also bringing in solid wideout Laurent Robinson from the Dallas and drafted former college phenom Justin Blackmon out of Oklahoma State.

 

The addition of those two new wideouts along with one more year of seasoning for quarterback Blaine Gabbert, gives the Jaguars’ offense a more legitimate passing game. Last season, Gabbert only connected on 50.8% of his passes. Gabbert should better that mark this season and if it doesn’t, backup Chad Henne is there to try and do so.  The improved passing game should help him out in the red zone as defenses play the pass more often.

 

So what’s the verdict?

 

MJD’s been very consistent with his yards. His supporting cast is much improved, taking a lot of pressure off the run. And his schedule features one fewer game against a top 10 running defense. Even with all that, the likelihood of him posting up 1600+ yards is unlikely. The Jaguars offense stabilizing means they won’t need to rely on MJD as much as they did last season, translating into fewer carries, fewer targets, and a diminished yardage total. His RuTDs should increase, but the increase won’t be astronomical. Owners should not look to draft MJD above other premiere backs like Foster, Rice, McCoy, or Peterson.

 

 

3.  Is Jimmy Graham the #1 Tight End in 2012?

 

The 2011 season saw one of the NFL’s longest-lived records, most receiving yards by a TE, broken not once, but twice. Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots and Jimmy Gaham of the Saints both broke Kellen Winslow’s 31 year-old record of 1290 RecYa and ended up with 1327 and 1310 RecYa, respectively. Gronk coupled those RecYa totals with 17 (another new record) RecTD and 90 catches. Graham with 10 RecTD and 99 catches for Graham.

 

Unlike Gronk who was an All-American tight end at two levels, set school records in college, and had a double-digit RecTD total his rookie season, Graham came out of nowhere. While at the University of Miami, he played only one season of college football and that was as a grad student. His undergrad years were spent as a forward on the basketball team. He had 356 RecYa and 5 RecTD in 2010, his rookie season, but that was hardly an indication that he would break a 30 year-old record.

 

Though Gronk and Graham were the clear tier 1 tight ends in the game, Gronk’s extra 7 RecTDs and 17 extra RecYa on 9 fewer catches easily made him #1. But, what about this season? Does Superstar Jimmy Graham take the top tight end title from the Incredible Gronk(7)?

 

The Saints offense returns [almost] as high-powered as last year. Back is quarterback Drew Brees, with a new $100 million contract, and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Gone is wideout Robert Meachem who left via free agency and signed with the Chargers. His loss will certainly make the Saints’ passing game less prolific, as they’ll only have 3 receivers with 500 or more yards, as opposed to the 4 they had before(8).

 

Though Meachem’s loss is bad for the Saints overall, it isn’t necessarily bad for Jimmy Graham. Meachem had 60 passing targets last year and considering how much the Saints offense is built around its passing, it’s unlikely that those 60 targets will become 60 carries instead or that  Meachem’s replacement Devery Henderson will get 60 more targets. What’s more likely to happen is that those targets will be distributed amongst the current receivers. Since Graham had 22.5% of the Saints total passes, chances are he’ll see most of those targets, probably somewhere between 17 and 20 of those potential 60. Even if the distribution is equal, that means about 12 more targets for Graham this season. Assuming he is as targeted as he was last season, with the added bonus, Graham might be getting somewhere around 162-165 targets. That should put him all the way at the top of the tight ends list by far (considering that last year the second most targeted tight end had 23 fewer targets than Graham) and it should rival even some of the top wide receivers.

 

Graham will definitely be getting the chances, but as we learned from last year, being the most targeted doesn’t always you’re the most productive. Number 2 wideout Wes Welker had more RecTDs, RecYa, and catches than number 1 wideout Roddy White, and number 3 guy Calvin Johnson had more than both of them. It was the same thing with Graham. Though he was the most targeted tight end, the number 3 most targeted tight end, Gronk still had more RecTD and RecYa, though he did have fewer catches.

 

The only thing that keeps me from thinking that Gronk will do the same thing again is the fact that unlike the Saints’ receiving corps, the Patriots’ added two more, pretty good receivers in Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Lloyd. Having those two there along with the already present Welker, Branch, and Hernandez will certainly mean fewer targets for Gronk. And, if they don’t throw it to him as much, he can’t catch it as much. And if he can’t catch it as much, he can’t score as much. And if he doesn’t score as much, he’s not ranked as highly. Meaning, Superstar Jimmy Graham is the #1 guy going into 2012.

 

 

4.  Will Brandon Marshall jump back into the top-tier WR range now that he’s playing with Jay Cutler again?

 

When Jay Cutler was traded to the Bears in 2009, everyone from Howard to 131st St was ecstatic. They made t-shirts, they made posters, they made videos. I remember seeing a cartoon somewhere on the internet that had a faux exhibit at the Field Museum that had the remains of a football player and a plaque that read “Good Quarterback.” The tour guide was telling the group that there had been no live specimens of that type had been seen in the Chicago area for decades. It was a happy time. Finally, the Bears had a quarterback.

 

Being my not so prone to hype self, though, I knew that having a quarterback only went so far. Because, as long as it’s been since a live “Good Quarterback” specimen has been seen in Chicago, the same is true of a live “Good Wide Receiver.” And if history’s any indication, a good quarterback has a really tough time winning if he doesn’t have at least one good wideout.

 

So what did the Bears do? They brought in Brandon Marshall, the oft in trouble with the law, gets stabbed by his ex-wife, smacks people in nightclubs(9), 3-time Pro Bowler, hoping his reunion with Jay Cutler will solidify their receiving corps.

 

It’s hard for him not to. Putting it nicely, the Bears’ receiving corps isn’t very good.  Last season, Chicago was 24th in the league in receiving yards. And it’s not because Jay Cutler missed 6 games, because the season before that, the Bears were also ranked 24th. The season before that, Cutler’s first in Chicago, they were ranked 16th. Rankings for RecTDs were only slightly better, but still in the bottom half of the league.

 

Outside of Johnny Knox, who had 960 and 727 RecYa for the last two seasons, no Bears receiver has had more than 600 RecYa in the last 2 seasons. They also haven’t had a 1,000 yard receiver in 10 years, the longest streak in the NFL. Marshall on the other hand, had 1014 and 1214 RecYa in the last 2 seasons and has had at least 1,000 every season he’s played except his rookie one. With Johnny Knox recently added to the physically unable to perform list, Marshall becomes the undisputed number one receiver on the team, though he likely would’ve been even playing next to a healthy Knox.

 

But, what matters is not whether he’ll be the number one receiver on the Bears, that was supposed to be a given, it’s whether he’s a top-tier wide receiver now that he’s back with Cutler.

 

If history’s any indication, it’s very likely that he will. In his two full seasons with Cutler, Marshall had 206 Rec, 2590 RecYa, and 13 RecTD. Not only that, he was also the leagues most targeted receiver with 182 targets in ’08 and 170 in ’07. The 2008 season was, arguably, both guys’ best.

 

Clearly, Cutler and Marshall had a good rapport. And, if you believe Marshall’s dip in production in Miami (he only had 3 RecTDs in 2010) and Cutler’s in Chicago (he led the league in INTs in 2009 and was under 3300 PaYa in 2010) aren’t just coincidental, it’s safe to assume the two play best when they play together. Marshall will have someone to throw him the ball a lot and throw it deep, allowing him to use his superb strength and speed to beat corners downfield. Cutler will have someone whom he trusts to get open, come down with the ball, and muscle some extra yards.

 

The only thing that can Axl Rose(10) this reunion is the Bears’ new Achilles heel, the offensive line. Part of the reason Cutler was able to get the ball to Marshall so many times was that he had a good line helping him stay vertical. In his three seasons with Denver, Cutler was sacked 51 times. In 2010 with the Bears, he was sacked a league-leading 52 times. And that was with 6-time Pro Bowler Olin Kreutz under center and Roberto Garza 3 years younger. This year’s offensive line is not as good as that one, so chances are Cutler will see his fair share of the turf from close up.

 

Even with the porous line, for Brandon Marshall going from having Chad Henne or Matt Moore as his quarterback to Jay Cutler is a huge improvement. If he was still able to have over 80 receptions and over 1,000+ RecYa with those guys, he’s sure to improve by at least 20 catches and 300 RecYa, giving him a line of about 100 catches, 1,500 RecYa, and 8 or 9 RecTD and likely putting him amongst the top 3 receivers in the league behind Megatron and Larry Fitzgerald.

 

 

5.  Andy Dalton-Sophomore Slump or Top-16 Quarterback?

 

Lost in the midst of Cam Newton’s phemonenawesome rookie season, was Andy Dalton’s solid season. The former TCU quarterback threw for just under 3,400 yards and did the unlikely by improving his yardage totals from his senior season in college by more than 500 yards. Though not spectacular, his 20 PaTD were equal to Joe Flacco’s and only 1 less than Newton’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. Dalton was far from being among the elite, but he was also far from being among the bottom of the barrel. Not bad for a rookie.

 

But, he won’t be a rookie this season. Can he improve on his rookie numbers, the way he did coming out of college?

 

I think so. Why? Well, the Bengals come into the season with a stronger offensive squad. Number 1 wideout A.J. Green returns after having a Pro Bowl season. So does tight end Jermaine Gresham. Former Cincinatti Bearcat, Armon Binns makes the journey south from Nippert Stadium and brings his ability to make tough plays in traffic as the Bengals’ number 2 receiver. He’ll be a rookie, but his skill set and size make him at least as big a threat as former number 2, Jerome Simpson. The offensive line has also been much improved with the addition of Travelle Wharton from Carolina and first-round draft pick Kevin Zeitler from Wisconsin. And of course, let’s not forget the addition of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who gives the Bengals a much better option at running back than Cedric Benson whose 3.5 and 3.9 yards/carry were the 2nd-lowest in the league among running backs with 200 or more carries.

 

While the addition of Binns, Wharton, and Zeitler are clear boons to Dalton, the addition of BenJarvus could have a potential downside. While the advantage is obvious, taking pressure off the passing game by forcing defenses to play the run more, the disadvantage is a little more subtle. Green-Ellis’s yards/carry average of 3.7 was even lower than Benson’s as was the amount of carries he had. He’s not a premier running back when it comes to getting yards, so he’s unlikely to take too many attempts away from Dalton. What he will do though, is take away shots into the end zone.

 

Unlike, Benson who had 6 and 7 RuTD in the last two seasons, respectively, Green-Ellis had 13 and 11, good for 2nd and 4th-best in the league. Putting it plainly, he’s a monster in the red zone. And that was with Tom Brady at quarterback. It’s very likely that head coach Marvin Lewis will opt for Green-Ellis most of the time the Bengals get near the goal line, taking a few of those PaTD opportunities away from Dalton.

 

Still, it’d be safe to expect a 3700 PaYa, 25 PaTD, 12 INT line. The only thing that’s a bit worrisome is Dalton’s less than stellar 58.1 completion percentage, which was 22nd in the league. That number should improve however, and with it the rest of his numbers. He won’t be an elite quarterback, but he’ll easily be in the top 14 or so, comparable to Matt Schaub or Joe Flacco.

 

 

6.  Julio Jones vs. Roddy White—who’s the better fantasy pick?

The following match is scheduled for the first two or three rounds of the fantasy draft. Introducing first. In the red corner. The established veteran. Measuring 6’1” and weighing in at 201 lbs. From the University of Alabama-Birmingham, “Rapid” Roddy White.

 

Introducing next. In the blue corner. The rising sophomore. Measuring 6’3” and weighing in at 220 lbs. From the University of Alabama, “Jumpin’” Julio Jones (11).

 

Now, let’s go to the tale of the tape.

 

Tale of the tape:

 

 

 

 

Analysis:

If there are two better number 1 and number 2 wideouts on the same team in the NFL, I don’t know them. In a perfect world, you’d be draft both guys, but chances are you won’t. So, which one should you go with?

 

Last season, Julio Jones justified the Falcons trading up to get him at number 6 overall with a fantastic rookie season. Despite only playing in 13 games, he wasn’t far from the 1,000 RecYa mark, missing it by less than 50. His 8 RecTDs were good enough for 5th (tied with a bunch of other guys including Roddy White).

 

Most impressive though was his 7.9 YAC, which make him the league-leader amongst receivers with more than 30 catches. Jones wasn’t easy to bring down once he caught the ball. In 7 of his 13 games, he caught a pass for at least 30 yards or more (it would’ve been 8, but he only caught a 29 yarder in week 15). That’s just as many games as Brandon Marshall, a guy known for being really tough to tackle and 4 more games than Roddy White.

 

It would seem as though the more physically gifted Jones, coming back another year wiser, with a clean bill of health, and presumably playing in all 16 games, has the clear edge on White. But, that’s not entirely true.

 

As fast as Jones is and as good as he is getting away from potential tacklers, being a good wide receiver isn’t just about those things. Coming down with the ball is more important than anything. In this, White has the advantage, even if he did drop a few passes last season (that’s mostly a function of him being the league’s most targeted receiver). In his last 5 seasons, he’s had over 80 catches each year, including 100+ the last two seasons.

 

Almost as important was White’s chemistry with his quarterback, Matt Ryan. Despite having Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones to throw to, White was still targeted on 30.13% of Matt Ryan’s throws. There was a drop of only less than 1% from 2010 to 2011, meaning that even with Jones lining up next to him, he still was Ryan’s go to guy, and that’s something that isn’t likely to change much. Look for White to be the most targeted guy on the Falcons again this season.

 

 

The Decision(12):

 

With a likely line of about 100 catches, 1300 RecYa, 8 RecTD, to a likely line of about 80 catches, 1400 RecYa, and 10 RecTD, I score this one a majority draw(13).

 

If you’re a fan of consistency, go with Roddy. The numbers for the last 5 seasons are almost the same every season. There’s been no dip. If you’re a fan of upside, go with Julio. His physical prowess and ability to break away on long runs makes him a likely hero on many weekends. Watch out for those where he’s a dud, though, ‘cause they can be real bad. I’m talking 2 catches for 30 yards and no TDs bad. Still, he has so much damn upside that we at Pyro can’t help but feel good about his potential.

 

 

7.  Can Shonn Greene finally put together a premier fantasy season?

 

Probably not. Why? Tim Tebow.

 

Though Rex Ryan claims Tebow’s going to be used mostly out of the wildcat, the fact is that the he would be stupid not to use Tebow in the red zone, especially in short yardage situations. In his career, Tebow has 10 RuTD when he’s 10 or fewer yards from the goal line. Greene only has 7. Last season, despite being a full-time quarterback, Tebow had one more RuTD near the goal line than Greene did.

 

And that was the “small” version of Tebow, the one listed at 236 pounds. The recently bulked-up Tebow, currently listed at 249 pounds, should be able to power through a defense better than anyone else in the Jets backfield. His newly acquired size along with the threat of him passing(14), should cause just enough hesitation for Tebow to sneak in a few RuTDs.

 

As unfortunate as it sounds, losing potential stats is nothing new for Greene. When he was a rookie, he lost some to Thomas Jones. When he was a sophomore, he lost some to LaDainian Tomlinson. And now, as fourth year guy, he’s going to lose some to Tebow. It’s the circle of Greene’s life with the Jets. So, pencil him in for about 1,000 yards again, but look for his touchdown total to diminish by at least two RuTDs that he can hardly afford to miss.

 

 

8.  Did the Rams improve enough on offense to get Sam Bradford back into the fantasy conversation?

 

Nope. The Rams are returning essentially the same offensive squad they had last year. The only different faces are Pro Bowl center Scott Wells who came over from Green Bay and Brian Quick from Appalachian State.

 

Wells will be a steady presence on the line and help keep Bradford upright, but he’s hardly a super impact player. Brian Quick from Appalachian State (15), has potential, but with Danny Amendola back from injury and the other two average receivers that make up the Rams’ receiving corps, he may not get enough targets to make much of a difference.

 

Though the Rams made a splash in the offseason by getting a great new head coach,(16) they didn’t do get enough on-field talent to improve, at least not on the offensive side. Sam Bradford is doomed for another season comparable to his rookie one, with about 3,300 PaYa, 19 PaTD, 15 INT, and a sub 60% completion percentage.

 

 

9.  Will Fred Jackson come back from a broken leg and be the Fred Jackson of old?

 

When you’re 31 years old few people outside of 6 year-olds think you’re old. That is of course, unless you’re an NFL running back. Turning 31 is like seeing the checkered flag. Last lap. The race is almost over.

 

That’s why, when you turn 31 the season after you break your leg, many treat it like the tread coming off your front tire at 150 mph. But is it really that bad?

 

In Fred Jackson’s case, no. Why? Because, not all leg injuries are equal, not even all fractures.

 

Jackson broke his fibula, the thinner bone that together with the tibia, makes up one’s shin, and though it’s bad, it’s not as bad as it sounds. You see, the fibula is not a load-bearing bone, meaning it doesn’t sustain any weight and is relatively free of stress from general movement, like walking or standing (17). It’s also relatively free of the stress that usually comes from playing the running back position, like accelerating off the line or making cuts. It’s not like breaking bones in one’s ankle, foot, or knee which are both weight-bearing and more affected by the stress put it on it by playing running back. An injury to one of those bones also tends to require surgery a lot more often. Jackson’s injury didn’t require any surgery, only time and rest.

 

Because the injury wasn’t too severe and because it doesn’t really affect running back motions, it shouldn’t be much of a factor in Jackson’s performance. Reggie Bush broke the same bone in 2010 and came back in 2011 to post his first 1,000+ RuYa season. Willie Parker did too, and in the two games before he went down with a shoulder injury, he rushed for 243 yards and 3 TDs. Granted, everyone’s body reacts differently, even to the same injury, but if they were able to come back, there’s no reason Jackson shouldn’t too.

 

The biggest concern though is that unlike Bush and Parker who were 26 and 28, respectively, when they returned from those injuries, Jackson is 31. Like I mentioned earlier, running backs tend not to age very well past 30. But, just like all fractures are not equal, neither are all 31 year-old running backs.

 

The reason most running backs tend to decline after 30 is that by the time they get there, they have an assload (18) of total carries. Take Jamal Lewis and Barry Sanders, who both retired at age 30, for example. Each had 2,542 and 3,062 total carries respectively by age 30. Even Thomas Jones, who wasn’t always a number one back had 1949 carries by the time he was 30. Fred Jackson though, only has 817 total carries, far fewer than those guys did. That’s thousands of tackles, piles, and bumps fewer than those other 30 year-olds, meaning his body has taken an amount of football punishment more comparable to 25 year-old Rashard Mendenhall (19).

 

F-Jax will be fine and healthy this season. I would say he would post the same kind of numbers he did last season but...

 

 

10.  If F-Jax returns from his broken leg in form, where does that leave C.J. Spiller?

 

C.J. Spiller, the guy who filled in for Fred Jackson after his injury, will likely take a good amount of carries away from Jackson. In the 6 games Jackson was out, Spiller rushed for 446 yards and 3 TDs. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers and not quite as impressive as Jackson’s, but  considering that the Bills reduced the number of rushes per game after Jackson went down, they’re still pretty solid.

 

Spiller also ran for 20 or more yards on a single carry in 3 of those 6 games. That kind of elusiveness will surely be attractive to head coach Chan Gailey (20) and could result in Spiller getting the ball more in plays to the outside and down the open field.

 

One thing I don’t see happening though, is Spiller becoming the number one back. Jackson’s size advantage and short yardage abilities (8 of his 20 career RuTDs were scored from within 5 yards of the goal line) will keep him as the number one back. Best case scenario, Spiller becomes Jackson’s handcuff and the two share about equal duty in a more rush-heavy offense. More likely though, we see Spiller spell Jackson after difficult rushes or come in during splitback/dual halfback formations, the way MJD did for Fred Taylor in Jacksonville.

 

Like it was with Taylor though, the bulk of the carries, will still be Jackson’s. And, as a result, he’ll likely have more RuYa and RuTD. How many though? Considering that his career high for both is 1062 and 6, respectively and that he’ll lose some carries to Spiller, even if Jackson returns to his 2011 form, he likely won’t end up with more than 1050 RuYa and 7 RuTD. As for Spiller, pencil him in for about 500 RuYa and 3 RuTD.

- 08/01/12