Week 20
January 21, 2018
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Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Vegas landscape for week ten - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 10

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/10/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals.

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a higher scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, that is to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack.

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.

 

 

Vegas Implied Point Total for Week 10

 


If you are looking to stack players from a specific game, gaze no further than Dallas/Atlanta. It actually opened over 50, but with the Zeke suspension back on, the total points expected now rests at 49.5. Still, it is the highest game of the week. Because the spread is only 3, favoring the home team of Atlanta, I expect both teams to do well. You certainly want to keep an eye on Dez Bryant’s status, but Terrance Williams could be a nice pivot play as he has been looking great as of late. In the last three weeks, Williams is second on the team for WR targets and actually has more receiving yards than Dez. According to Football Outsiders, no other team ranks worse against #2 WRs than Atlanta. Certainly Dak Prescott is a great play. Using Football Outsiders Weighted Defensive metric, the Falcons rank 29th. On the other side of the ball, Freeman is a great price on most DFS sites. This season, 3 RBs have racked up over 100 rushing yards against the Cowboys, and 4 different backs have amassed at least 50 receiving yards against them. Sanu is another nice pivot away from a Julio. Dallas is 27th against #2 WRs. In fact, they have allowed double-digit fantasy days to 6 different #2 WRs so far this year. Sanu has 3 TDs in the last 5 games and has scored in each of the last two weeks.

 

The highest implied team total for the week 10 slate goes to the Rams, and why not. They have been racking up the points. Vegas expects them to score just over 28 points this week. I do like the Goff / Woods stack. Afterall, look at what Hilton did to that aging secondary last week. I half expected on of their corner backs to pull a Red Fox and have a heart attack right there on the field. “I’m coming to see you Elizabeth!”. In the last 3 weeks, Houston is tied for the most FF Pts per game to opposing WRs. I love his ceiling. Also on the Rams and of particular note for full point reception leagues, take a look at Cooper Kupp. PFF notes the best matchup for Rams receivers goes to Kupp, who will matchup with Kareem Jackson. (He is actually tied along with Antonio Brown for best matchup). Kareem, nay, Mr. Jackson because he’s nasty, has the dubious distinction of coming in at CB #95 according to PFF. In PPR formats, Kupp should be solid, but I still like Woods for his ceiling. Finally, with the largest opening spread of the week, Gurley should see plenty of opportunity. Although Houston is far more susceptible to WRs, Fournette and Hunt both ripped off triple digit rushing days against the Texans.

 

The Lions are favored by nearly double digits over the visiting Browns. Detroit has an implied team total of nearly 27 points. You have to love Stafford at home. Watson, Dalton, and Brissett have all racked up 20 point fantasy days against the Cleveland secondary. Tate should get plenty of targets in this one. In the last 3 weeks, the former ND player has a total of 21 receptions and is 12th in receiving yards in that stretch. The Lions should get more offensive looks this game considering the Browns run at the second fastest clip in the NFL.

 

The Steelers are home to Indy in Week 10. Not only is there nearly a double-digit spread in favor of Pittsburgh, but they are expected to score just over 26 points. I don’t have any problem paying up for Bell in DFS this week. He leads the NFL for team touch percentage. The man is touching the ball 56% of the time. What is not to like against a Colts team who have surrendered the most rushing TDs in the league. Plus, Indy is allowing the most yards per passing attempt. Antonio Brown is absolutely in play this week against a very soft secondary. Remarkably, 16 different WRs have put up double-digit Draft Kings performances against the Colts. I expect Brown to be number 17. Vontae Davis has the name but no longer the game. PFF has Brown tied for the best matchup this week.

New England is a Vegas favorite. The Pats are slotted to put up nearly 27 points and hold a 7 point spread over the visiting Broncos. Brady will look to test their D that came off the rails last week. Considering the rushing woes of the Broncos, Tom Brady and company should get more looks than normal against a fledgling offense with Brock Osweiler under center.

 

The Saints are expected to score 25.5 on the road against Buffalo.  In the last 5 weeks, the Bills have surrendered the 5th most Draft Kings points to opposing RBs. I would not be opposed to equal shares of Kamara and Ingram.

 

Finally, for a defensive play, I like the Bears who are home to a struggling Packers team. This is the lowest Over/Under on the slate. Chicago is fairly cheap on the DFS sites. Hundley has one career game with a completion percentage above 55%. Then, because a RB/DEF stack is generally an attractive way to roll, I like Jordan Howard. The Packers have given up the 5th most fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks. Howard is averaging just north of 25 touches per game since Trubisky took the helm. You know that is exactly within Coach Fox’s wheel house.

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. I am not counting the KC pick from last week as that call was made when Zeke was deemed out. I just want that on the record. So my totals so far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 3-0-1

2 team parlays Against the Spread: 1-3

 

For Week 10

2 team parlays:

TEN (-4.5) and OVER 40.5

LAC (+4.5) and OVER 41

           

Straight Bets

MIA (+9)

SF (+2.5)

BUF (+3)

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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