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July 19, 2018
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LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Vegas landscape for week twelve - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 12

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/22/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.


 

Week 12 Vegas Implied Point Total and Detail Chart

 

 

Some of my best memories are watching the Lions on Thanksgiving. The game however, is the conduit. Sure, my DFS picks this year will add to the day’s festivities. However, with the ever tick of time’s clock, I appreciate the good feelings with friends and family. So, relish the good stuff on this day of Thanks. Some may have to look past an opinionated relative, or deal with gridlock and the eternal trials of travel… But look beyond. As time goes on, the experiences of today become tomorrow’s joyous memories. So, happy Thanksgiving, cherish the good goo!

 

 

MIN @ DET(+3) - O/U 44.5

23.75   20.75

Detroit is one of two home underdogs on a Thanksgiving day slate of three. This is the lowest scoring game of the slate according to Vegas. I think Detroit is a very solid bet against the spread, they are getting 3 points and they are home. Last week, Detroit was one of only three teams that surpassed their implied team total seven times this season. Well, they did it again last week. Heck, there have only been two occasions when Detroit failed to score 24 points this entire season. That said, I think Stafford has the highest ceiling of the holiday slate of QBs. Now, one of those two times they did not put up 24 points, was against the Vikings back in Week 4. Stafford has more completions against the Vikings than any other team. Now, they have not allowed a 100 yard WR this season, the Lions score a lot of points by spreading the wealth. Rostering Stafford gives you access to all the potential TDs on the team. The Vikings have allowed the 11th most DraftKings points to opposing gun-slingers the last 3 weeks. Golden Tate is a great cash play. Ironically, Marvin Jones  has been targeted just as much in the last 3 weeks. If Xavier Rhodes is out, I like Jones in GPP. Although, Rhodes was listed as a full practice participant Monday and Tuesday. While I am not a huge fan of the ground game versus the Vikings, Ameer Abdulla did put up 94 yards in their Week #4 meeting. Thus far, that is the most yards suffered to an opposing back by the Vikings.

 

For Minnesota, this game does have shootout potential. Case Keenum could benefit and is in GPP consideration. There will be a lot of people on Theilen after last week’s performance. He should draw a tough matchup in Quandre Diggs. For the Vikings, Stefon Diggs will likely get the Slay ride and is a fade candidate as well. Treadwell has the best matchup against Nevin Lawson but keep in mind Treadwell’s lack of production till now. I like Rudolph in cash. Detroit is notorious for giving it up to TEs and Football Outsiders ranks them 29th in that department this season. In the last 6 weeks, Rudolph is averaging over 7 targets a game.  Of course, the Vikings ground game offers some cash game appeal. I like McKinnon as a pivot off Murray who has been more productive of late. But, this could be a negative script for the Vikings. In which case, they will look to pass, and McKinnon’s role will be vital if they are down.

 

 

LAC @ DAL(+1) - O/U 48

24.5     23.5

The highest scoring game of the slate; this would be the one to game stack. The Chargers are also road favorites and Rivers will make a nice cash option for QBs. Keenan Allen will likely be the highest owned WR. You could look to get leverage against the field by fading him in GPP. He is a great cash game option. I like Hunter Henry as well. Dallas will still be without Lee, the heart of their defense. Mike Williams has the second most Charger targets for a WR in the last three weeks. He is a high draft pick the organization would like to see get going, especially around the red zone. Gordon is sure to be the highest owned RB and for good reason.  A solid cash play. He is 4th for red zone attempts. Ekeler really did not get any work until the 2nd half last week, so I am not as scared off. I do like Ekeler in GPP as well. I even stacked them last week. This is an option as this game has the best potential for a shootout.

 

While Prescott while likely see depressed ownership, a bounce-back performance could be possible and would give you leverage off a field likely on mainly one or two other QBs. The last three weeks, the Chargers have given up the 7th most rushing yards to QBs. Of course, in that span, they have allowed the 2nd most draft Kings points to opposing RBs. Alf is one of the few healthy Dallas back and could be in for a haul of carries. Rod Smith went from getting 6 targets two weeks ago, to 0 last week in a game that required a passing script from the Cowboys. His role is anything but solidified. Witten is a great option, I could see him shining in the national spotlight. Dez is so volatile, love his ceiling potential in GPP, but I will not be overweight on him by any means. As always with short slates, in tournaments, you will need a low-cost guy to put up some numbers. That could be Terrance Williams who actually has more yards than Dez in the last three games.

 

 

NYG @ WAS (-7.5) - O/U 45

18.75   26.25

Starting with the Giants, the only one I see exposure to would be Engram of course. He is 6th in DraftKings points in the last 3 games. He makes up the whole team, especially if Shepard is out, who very well could be. He has not practiced all week. Darkwa looked solid last week. However, will they be able to stay within a neutral game script? If not, his usage comes into question. Also, his health, the man has been limited in practice so far this week.

As for Washington, Cousins is sure to be the highest owned cash QB. Samaje Perine was 6th in DraftKings points last week. Vegas is certainly telling us he should get the usage again as the Redskins have the highest spread of the slate at 7.5, and the home field advantage. Pryor is out of the passing game now, as is Chris Thompson. This should open up some room for fantasy production, but from whom? My money is on Crowder. He leads the team in targets for the last 5 weeks. While I like Crowder’s floor, Doctson has the ceiling and could be a nice GPP play if Cousins goes off. In larger tournaments, when you are looking for a cheap WR to stack with cousins, Ryan Grant could be your guy. He had his best DraftKings day last week with 14.9 points.

 

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

 

Straight bets Against the Spread: 6-3-2

 

For Week 12:

            DET (+3)

            BUF(+10)

 

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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Tons of movement this week so pay extra attention to our Week 11 of Pyromaniac Mo's Vegas Piece and how Vegas spreads can help you with fantasy football and DFS selections for players on teams that are likely to score the most points. Check it out!