Week 15
December 16, 2017
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Stefon Diggs

Minnesota Vikings

Diggin' It and Thielen It


The Vikings have played five out of their last six games on the road. They return home this week to face a banged-up Bengals defense and Kyle Rudolph is out. Stefon Diggs has played in four home games this year. He has hit 27.7 and 40.3 on DK in two of them.

Fantasy Goo: Diggs has never played a game without Rudolph in the line-up, so we don’t really know how this will affect his targets. Cincinnati has been without both starting CB’s, but may get Dre Kirkpatrick back this week. I have Diggs as a WR2/Flex this week with Thielen being a solid WR1, must start.


12/15/17, 05:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Robert Woods

Los Angeles Rams

Back in Action


Seahawks Weeks 1-9 (With Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 2nd
Explosive pass rate allowed:19th
Weeks 11-14 (Without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 22nd
Explosive pass rate allowed: 24th

Fantasy Goo: Robert Woods comes back this week, so I’m moving Watkins way down. Watkins production went up about 70% across the board with Woods out. Kupp’s production went up with Woods out as well, but even with Woods in the line-up he was second on the team in targets. Woods might need to knock some rust off after being out for three weeks so I have Woods and Kupp in the WR3/Flex range, and feel safe with starting either one.


12/15/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jag's Starting JAG's


Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette missed his third straight day of practice today due to his quad injury. No practice all week.

Fantasy Goo: I expect Yeldon and Ivory to split the touches if Fournette doesn’t play, neither seems to be worth starting, but Houston has given up five rushing TD’s in the past three games (one to a QB).


12/15/17, 05:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Howard

Chicago Bears

Here Comes the BOOM!


Detroit is allowing 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game over the past five weeks, the most in the league, they have also allowed a rushing touchdown in eight straight games. Jordan Howard is tied for the most runs of 10 or more yards (30) on the season. Howard has had 12 100-yard rushing games in his first two seasons and he wasn’t even the starter the first four games last year.

Fantasy Goo: Howard is really boom-bust, he has yet to pair together fantasy RB1 weeks this year. He had a huge game last week and his match-up this week is just too sweet to think that he won’t be able to break this trend.


12/15/17, 05:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

In the Clear


Zach Ertz has cleared the concussion protocol and will play this week.

He’s pretty much ranked as the number three TE across the industry, but I think he lacks the boom upside we might think he has against the Giants. His production with Foles, back in 2013, was only slightly lower than his production this year. In the first nine games the Giants gave up a TD to a TE in every game. In the last four games the Giants have only given up one, to Jason Witten, who has historically torched the Giants, it was his only catch of the game. They even managed to keep Kelce out of the end-zone, I believe a couple of OPI’s were involved there and Kelce did get 109 yards receiving though. I believe Ertz is a prime candidate for 5/50/1, but I don’t expect him to win you your week or be worth paying up for in DFS.


12/15/17, 05:11 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles

Not Skipping a Beat


Carson Wentz is out for the season, and maybe some of Next season with a torn ACL. Over their first 24 games Foles has more TD’s, fewer INT’s, and more yards that Wentz has in his first 24 games. Foles was a Pro Bowler who threw 27 TD & 2 INT with the Eagles in 2013. The last time Nick Foles faced the Raiders, he threw for 7 TDs.

Fantasy Goo: I’m not saying there won’t be an adjustment period and I’m not trying to say the Eagles are better-off without Wentz, but Foles is a very capable back-up and if he can stir-up that 2013 magic the Eagles should be fine. Normally I’d say wait a week before starting Foles or any of the skill position players on the Eagles, but with it being week 15 and the match-up being a weak Giants defense, I’m starting them all as you usually would.


12/13/17, 03:59 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Lamar Miller

Houston Texans

Miller a Solid Cash Play on DFS


Miller will face the 49'ers, who according to Football Outsiders ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA.

Fantasy Goo: In the last 3 weeks, Miller is 6th in total carries. In cash games, you want opportunity. Considering the 49'ers run one of the fastest paced offenses in the league, his carries, already in the top 10 in recent weeks, should see an increase.


12/10/17, 11:14 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Gio Free Square


Gio is gets the starting role today as there as Mixon is out.

Fantasy Goo: The man is only $3100 on Draft Kings. The Baengals are home and 6 point favorites. The game script could easily favor the ground game, which means Gio should get plenty of touches to surpass 3X value.


12/10/17, 10:57 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Still in Concussion Protocol


Eagles still want to look at TE Zach Ertz and his concussion on Sunday, but he is considered doubtful for game vs. Rams even though he is listed as questionable.

Fantasy Goo: Trey Burton has been a big name all week, going for 4 receptions for 42 yards after Ertz’s exit last week. Burton is a versatile athlete, but not a premier TE like Ertz. His good numbers came against Denver which is giving up the second most points to the TE position this year. Philly faces the Rams this week who are sixth best in fantasy points allowed. I'm not considering Burton a good stream this week.


12/10/17, 10:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ameer Abdullah

Detroit Lions

Pain in the Neck


Detroit Lions RB Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable) is not expected to play today, source said, though it's more for play than injury reasons. Detroit is trying other players to improve the run game.

Fantasy Goo: This isn’t surprising given Abdullah’s disappointing performances over the past year and more.
Tion Green led the team with 51 rushing yards in his debut last week, and figures to be the Lions' ball-carrier Sunday in Tampa. Pass-catcher Theo Riddick will see reps as well and I expect that he has a safer floor especially in PPR.


12/10/17, 10:05 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Primed for Monday Return


Hogan has been out the past four weeks and has basically caused me a playoff berth in one of my dynasty leagues. If you’re still in it I’d get him into the line-up. With Gronk out Hogan should see a solid number of targets.


12/10/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

It's A Trap


Source says, if Cooper can cut at full speed and start and stop in pregame workout, they will use him on a limited basis or “pitch count.” Calls it a “very dramatic turnaround” from what team was expecting 48 hours ago.

Fantasy Goo: Total decoy move, I’m not starting him even if he is healthy enough to play. Cooper went for 11/210/2 when he faced the Chiefs in Week 7, so it is tempting to put him in, but you’ve got to figure that the Raiders want him in there just so the Chiefs have to play coverage his way and leave Crabtree in single coverage.


12/10/17, 10:01 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Todd Gurley

Los Angeles Rams

Lower Expectations This Week


Todd Gurley has just 1 TD over his last four games, but still has finished as RB6, RB16, RB8, and RB7 in those games. The TD came in the RB16 week. Insane usage AND efficiency from Gurley.

Fantasy Goo: He’s been the most consistent RB1 for the entire season, which is a nice turn-around from a disappointing 2016. He faces the Eagles this week who are second-best in fantasy points allowed to the RB position this year. I think we have to start him, but expectations must be lowered. He’s a fade in DFS this week.


12/09/17, 12:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Josh Gordon

Cleveland Browns

Balls Flying Everywhere


Per @rotounderworld, 70% of DeShone Kizer's pass attempts have been catchable balls, the third-lowest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. Winds expected near 20 mph in Cleveland this week.

Fantasy Goo: I would not consider starting Kizer at any point this year, but the key question here is will he be able to get the ball anywhere near Josh Gordon. He was only able to catch 4 of the 11 balls thrown in his direction last week, but he was going against one of the top corners in the league. He was still able to rack up 85 yards, and had over 200 air-yards, so we can be confident the opportunity will be there. If I had him anywhere I would most likely start him and will probably have him ranked as a mid-range WR2.


12/09/17, 12:53 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andy Dalton

Cincinnati Bengals

Red Rocket Time


Andy Dalton’s finishes last 3 weeks: QB9, QB12, QB6. Over the last 3 wks he is QB 7.
This week he faces Chicago whose pass defense over the past 3 games is allowing a QBR of 103, a 68% completion percentage, and 6th highest passing percentage for 1st downs.

Fantasy Goo: Dalton is a viable streamer this week, but I hesitate to rank him in the top 12. If you’re in the playoffs you’re probably just riding with what got you there, but if you’re stuck with a questionable match-up Dalton is a solid option. Also consider that while Chicago’s defense has looked good most of the year, their best games have been at home, this game is in Cincinnati.


12/09/17, 12:50 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Sore Knee Opens Door for Peterman


Nathan Peterman has taken all the first-team reps and it would be utterly shocking if he’s not the starter in a game the Bills must win if they hope to entertain any further thoughts about staying alive in the AFC wild-card playoff chase.

Fantasy Goo: This is a dream match-up, but I wouldn’t consider starting Peterman after his last performance (5 Int’s). If Taylor is able to start we should probably pump the breaks on him as well. The match-up is great, but his knee is the issue holding him back, if he loses his rushing numbers he loses his fantasy upside.


12/09/17, 12:45 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.democratandchronicle.com


Kenyan Drake

Miami Dolphins

Love the Drake


Per PFF, Percentage of Touches With At Least One Missed Tackle Forced:
Kenyan Drake: 25.7% (4th-best), Jay Ajayi: 15.7% (25th-of-50)

Fantasy Goo: Damien Williams is out so Drake should see 20+ touches, even in negative game-script he’ll get catches out of the backfield. When we are looking for a starting RB the first thing to look at is opportunity, and it’s definitely there this week.


12/07/17, 08:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

The Belichick Shuffle


Rex Burkhead has scored a touchdown once every 13.2 touches. Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown once every 13.3 touches.

Fantasy Goo: Burkhead has seen as many touches as Lewis over the past two weeks and is getting goal-line carries, against Miami this week I’ll consider them both RB2’s.


12/07/17, 07:55 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devin Funchess

Carolina Panthers

Momentum vs Match-Up


Since Kelvin Benjamin was traded, Devin Funchess has averaged 18.4 PPR PPG. That would be good enough for the WR5 on the full season.

Fantasy Goo: Funchess will be facing Xavier Rhodes this week, Rhodes has been slowed by injuries over the past few weeks, but seems to be coming back to health. I’m certainly not considering him as a WR1 this week and if you’re in the playoffs you probably have other options, but if you don’t go with what got you there.


12/07/17, 07:52 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Mark Ingram

New Orleans Saints

Pair of Aces


The Panthers allowed more RB1 games in Week 13 (2) than they had the rest of the season combined (1).

Fantasy Goo: The Saints running game is for real, Kamara and Ingram are both must-starts. They could shred a middle-of-the-road run defense like Atlanta.


12/07/17, 07:21 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Pair of Aces


The Panthers allowed more RB1 games in Week 13 (2) than they had the rest of the season combined (1).

Fantasy Goo: The Saints running game is for real, Kamara and Ingram are both must-starts. They could shred a middle-of-the-road run defense like Atlanta.


12/07/17, 07:21 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Vegas landscape for week thirteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 13

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/01/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams. 


Week 13 Implied Point Total Vegas



 

NE @   BUF(+9)           O/U = 49

29        20

This game not only opened up as the highest scoring game on the slate, but the Pats have the highest implied team total for Week #13. The Pats fire it up against this divisional rivalry. Gronk has faced them 11 times and has 11 TDs. Tom Brady has 66 TDs against them. In fact, Brady has scored more TDs against the Bills than any other team. He has 20 more against the Bills than the Jets despite playing NYJ two more times. His 66 represents 10 more TDs than he has against the Dolphins despite playing Miami in one more game. While the Bills are stout against opposing WRs, in fact Football Outsiders ranks them #1 against “other WRs” (meaning not a team’s #1 or #2 wide out), in the past 4 games, they have allowed 4 WR TDs. Brandin Cooks is 6th in the league in Air Yards.  Both New England backs are in play. In the last 3 weeks, Burkhead is averaging 14.1 DraftKings points on just 39 looks. His explosiveness has been on display and has a high ceiling. Dion Lewis might be the safer floor play on Draft Kings. He has averaged 14.2 DK points per game in that span on 45 looks. Keep in mind, the Bills have surrendered 10 rushing TDs in the past 5 weeks. Heck, there are only 2 other teams that have allowed over 10 rushing touchdowns to be scored all season long. That, plus the positive game script really favors the New England ground game.

 

Buffalo will likely need to pass to stay in this game, as they are expected to lose by 7. This makes Tyrod interesting, but risky. He should have all day to pass as the Pats defensive line has the worst Adjusted Sack Rating according to Football Outsiders. This should give him plenty of time to pass, or better yet, to scramble for yards. The Pats have been far better against opposing QBs as of late. In their last 5 games, they have seen the likes of Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Derek Carr yet the best DK score anyone has put up in that time is just 17 points. Still, every QB that has faced New England has managed at least 200 passing yards, 1 TD, and double digit DK points. New England ranks 29th against the rush according to Football Outsiders. Plus, they rank 29th against opposing backs out of the backfield. In fact, only San Francisco has allowed more RB receiving yards per game. In the last 5 weeks, LeSean McCoy is tied for the 7th most DK points on a per game basis. He is usually a solid cash play. The man has the 4th most carries this season and the 7th most targets for running backs. Opportunity is the name of the game in DFS cash plays, especially on DK where the man has the 7th most receptions as well. If Charles Clay is healthy, he has been Tyrod’s favorite target over the season. However, he is Questionable for Week 13 and has only practiced in a limited fashion thus far. Kelvin Benjamin is Doubtful. So, in the past two games, Zay Jones has been the guy. In that span he has 15 targets and just over 100 yards. He has scored 2 TDs in the last 3 games and his floor for targets in that time is 7. Still, Zay is nothing more than a GPP play. Still, the Pats are 2nd in DK points allowed to opposing WRs over the course of this season.

 

PHI @  SEA (+6)         O/U = 48

27        21

The second highest scoring game according to Vegas is the Eagles at the Seahawks. 48 points is the over under with road Eagles expected to do the majority of the scoring, putting up 27 points to just 21 for the home Seahawks. The 27 implied Eagle points is the 3rd highest for the week. Philly ranks #1 in the NFL for points scored, 31.9 per game. They are 6 point favorites with good reason. Their opponents are scoring the 3rd lowest points per game. So, if this holds true, Philly will have a positive game script and should rely on the ground game. While the coaching staff was talking up Ajayi two weeks ago, it has been Blount since then. I will likely be under weight on him and that would be in GPP only. On the season, Seattle is 11th against the rush according to Football Outsiders. However, they are really banged up on defense. Still only 2 backs have gone for over 60 yards against them on the season. The last one to do so was in Week #3. PFF gives Zach Ertz the 3rd best TE matchup this week. In the Seahawks last 7 games, they have allowed really good days to some mediocre TEs: 4 for 98 yards to Higbee; 6 for 60 and a TD to Engram; 6 for 72 to Vernon Davis; 5 for 64 and a TD to Gresham; and 31 yards and even a TD to the ukulele playing Levine Toilolo… I know Levine Toilolo, and let me tell you, Zach Ertz is no Levine Toilolo. This Eagles team has failed to put up 26 points just once this year. Considering the amount of scoring opportunities they should have, plus the fact that Ertz has the 2nd most Red Zone TD receptions in the league, I like him in cash. Ertz has the 3rd best Weighted Opportunity ranking in the league. Alshon Jeffery is 10th in that category for WRs. He has the 5th most air yards. For that reason, plus the fact they are expected to score nearly 4 TDs and have been doing so nearly all season, I like Jeffery as well, but in GPPs. Well I love what Wentz has been doing, he is expensive. I could see paying down a bit for QB this week. Plus, if the Vegas line holds true, and this team is indeed up and just using Blount as a clock chewing weapon, he might not have as high of a ceiling.

Seattle is at home where Wilson has only lost 8 times. Still, the Philly D is just too good. Plus, Wilson is the 3rd highest priced QB on DK. It is going to be hard to pay $7,100 for Wilson when you can get Rivers at home against the Browns fro $100 less. Heck, why not go cheap with Hundley against the Gawd awful Bucs secondary. Hundley is just $2000 less than Wilson. However, I will still grab some Wilson in GPP formats as Seattle does not have a ground game. Besides, according to Vegas, they will be playing from behind and need to rely on his arm. So the potential is there, but probably not for a ceiling play against this D. Their secondary, Mills, Darby, Robinson, carry some of the highest grades from PFF. Philly has absolutely the best Adjusted Sack rate. So I will likely be under weight on Wilson and hope to use that as leverage against the field. Now, Jimmy Graham can be considered in cash only because of his streak. The man has the most red zone targets for any pass catcher and the most red zone TDs. Graham has scored a TD in 6 of his last 7 games. He is in cash consideration. I am not touching the Philly ground game. They have several viable pass catchers for GPP formats in both Richardson and Baldwin. In fact, Baldwin has the best matchup.

 

CLE @ LAC (-13)        O/U = 42.5

14.75   27.75

The Chargers have the 2nd highest implied team total on the slate, 27.75. You have to love Philip Rivers at $7,000. Cleveland has allowed 6 different QBs to score over 18 DK points this season. This list includes Keenum, Brissett, and Dalton twice. They have allowed 3 multi-TD days to their last 4 opponents. Surprisingly, they are very solid against #2 WRs. That really just leaves Keenan Allen, and why not, he has the 2nd most DK points in the last 3 weeks. This could be a nice stack. Because the Chargers also carry the highest spread of the week, they are expected to win by 13 points, this is Melvin Gordon game if I ever saw one. Gordon only has 4 games on the season where he did not cross the goal line. While the Browns are fairly solid on paper against the rush, we saw last week, because their offense is so horrendous, they continually leave their opponents with great field position. Football Outsiders ranks 35 QBs for Defensive Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This stat is excellent for comparing QBs to an average replacement level QB. Well, Kizer ranks 35th. He continually gives opposing teams golden opportunity after opportunity to get into scoring position. Gordon has the 4th most attempts inside the red zone. I do like him for cash consideration.

 

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 7-4-2

 

For Week 13:

SF (+3)

GB (+1)

LAR (-7)

PIT (-5.5)

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

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