Week 3
September 19, 2018
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Anthony staggs

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@CTowersCBS Yeah, also the scheme has changed in order to keep him healthy, short quick throws. I wonder what perce… https://t.co/W5eM8jpRFt


04:50 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@CTowersCBS Fair enough, I will look more into it, but it is definitely affecting his fantasy viability. Thanks.


04:48 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@CTowersCBS Hmmm I guess I don't know the average and range of completion percentage on those throws.


04:45 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@CTowersCBS This is sort of surprising to me after reviewing the air yards data which has him at a 71% completion p… https://t.co/DaX0vjfsND


04:39 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @benbbaldwin: Here's @SeanFromSeabeck on the Seahawks and doubling down on ignoring what we can learn from the data (on… https://t.co/sWFFw1ehol


04:35 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @PeoplezPen: Week 2 Totals #NFL Passing Yards: 8,915 Passing Attempts: 1,173 Completions: 814 Percentage: 69.4% YPA: 7.60 Rush… https://t.co/4oV1UVdFUu


04:09 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @PyroStag: Here is the 2018 breakout of receiving yards allowed by position for each defense so far. #PartyFFavors https://t.co/OI45XqabUX


04:07 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @PyroStag: Big props to @FF_Wheeler who has started off the season as the #2 overall ranker on the season, keep it up dude! https://t.co/pcJDKFBeIp


03:12 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @FantasyPros: Week 2 expert accuracy results are up. 1) @ScoutFantasy 2) @mrhill9169 3) @scott_pianowski 4) @RotoSuperstar 5)… https://t.co/nosxyYaGNh


03:11 PM, Sep 19, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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Dan Bailey is now on the Vikings... pick him up as your kicker. Great player that purposefully landed in the perfect situation.


04:05 AM, Sep 19, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Golladay is 4th in air yards behind Julio, Hopkins, and Antonio Brown


01:19 AM, Sep 19, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@JohnBoschFF Definitely more fun this way!


04:21 PM, Sep 18, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@JohnBoschFF Definitely more fun this way!


04:21 PM, Sep 18, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


I know Kelce owners are nervous. But I am buying. Yes Mahomie has not had a track record of using TEs, but thru 2 w… https://t.co/uGv07pczB7


01:25 AM, Sep 18, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Kenny Golladay getting 21% of his team's target share and 1 of onely 4 WRs who have over 300 air yards through 2 ga… https://t.co/xielDMw1tf


01:22 AM, Sep 18, 2018

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Mo

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Chris Thompson and James White, both in the top 4 for air yards for RBs. Plus, they are 2 of just 5 backs getting a… https://t.co/gNseZ3WFBp


01:19 AM, Sep 18, 2018

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Mo

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@PaulCrane7 Do yourself a favor and check this podcast out!


12:42 AM, Sep 18, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @JABergman: As we all expected through two weeks... https://t.co/aBm1aBpyBk


08:00 PM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @JABergman: As we all expected through two weeks... https://t.co/aBm1aBpyBk


08:00 PM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @JustinFreeman18: Case Keenum: good without Fisher Nick Foles: good without Fisher Jared Goff: good without Fisher Todd Gurley: good… https://t.co/5L9QQ0YAz0


07:52 PM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @JustinFreeman18: Case Keenum: good without Fisher Nick Foles: good without Fisher Jared Goff: good without Fisher Todd Gurley: good… https://t.co/5L9QQ0YAz0


07:52 PM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @PlayDraft: Eli Manning could learn something from Vontae Davis here at halftime.


12:16 PM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @PlayDraft: Eli Manning could learn something from Vontae Davis here at halftime.


12:16 PM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @MikeClayNFL: Imagine knowing a month and a half ago that a 49ers back would be leading the NFL in rushing, a Bronco and Steeler… https://t.co/Y8RVTbRBDV


02:50 AM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @MikeClayNFL: Imagine knowing a month and a half ago that a 49ers back would be leading the NFL in rushing, a Bronco and Steeler… https://t.co/Y8RVTbRBDV


02:50 AM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @Pat_Thorman: On 11 carries, Matt Brieda averaged 7.5 rushing yards before initial contact. On 31 carries, Derrick Henry and Dio… https://t.co/KyGsUNu9G6


01:15 AM, Sep 17, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @Pat_Thorman: On 11 carries, Matt Brieda averaged 7.5 rushing yards before initial contact. On 31 carries, Derrick Henry and Dio… https://t.co/KyGsUNu9G6


01:15 AM, Sep 17, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@rafanaka desculpa. eu nao falo ptg mto bom. hahaha. But yeah, as I said, starting RBs this deep, it really comes… https://t.co/FRY2vNyAka


04:23 PM, Sep 16, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@rafanaka desculpa. eu nao falo ptg mto bom. hahaha. But yeah, as I said, starting RBs this deep, it really comes… https://t.co/FRY2vNyAka


04:23 PM, Sep 16, 2018

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Waz

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@FFDynastyDan Only grabbed him in three. Kind of digging his matchup this week. Thanks for caring though! <3


04:17 PM, Sep 16, 2018

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Waz

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@FFDynastyDan Only grabbed him in three. Kind of digging his matchup this week. Thanks for caring though! <3


04:17 PM, Sep 16, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@rafanaka Oi Rafael! Td bem? If it's between the two, I'd give Hines the start. Although, I do like Mack this week… https://t.co/2TSib92IeZ


04:17 PM, Sep 16, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@rafanaka Oi Rafael! Td bem? If it's between the two, I'd give Hines the start. Although, I do like Mack this week… https://t.co/2TSib92IeZ


04:17 PM, Sep 16, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@EdRod03 She always called me a wizard.


12:00 AM, Sep 15, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@EdRod03 She always called me a wizard.


12:00 AM, Sep 15, 2018

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Vegas landscape for week fourteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 14

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/08/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.

 

Vegas Implied Point Total Week 14

 


The IND/BUF and the DET/TB games both opened OFF and are still not taking bets as of 12-8-17

 

PATS implied total – 30.25, favored by 12  

New England, is a Vegas darling. For week #14, they play on Monday night, which you will want to keep in mind when selecting your slates on DFS. In their last 7 meetings, this matchup has surpassed the over/under 5 times. Not only that, in their last 7 games overall, Miami has gone over the spread. The Dolphins are allowing the 8th most points per game this NFL season. For fantasy purposes, it is hard to find a better D to face. In the last 5 weeks, opposing QBs facing the Dolphins have put up the 5th most DK points on a per game basis; the 3rd most DK points to opposing backs; the 2nd most to TEs. Remember Gronk is suspended for this game. I am not taking any fliers on the other Patriots TEs. So keeping all this in mind and looking at what Vegas tells us, the Pats will largely have a positive game script. So, this puts both RBs in play, although Dion Lewis gets the majority of carries. Still, Burkhead has been downright explosive. In their last 4 games, each RB has put up 3 different double digit fantasy performances. On the season, Lewis has 23 red zone looks while Burkhead has 18. Each back has 6 RZ looks in the last 3 weeks each. Just two weeks ago, Burkhead put up 19.3 to 12.3 for Lewis when they played Miami. So, I can see playing both guys in DFS.  Both are more of a GPP play. Heck, I will even have a double stack or two employing both backs and perhaps even the man himself, the big daddy Tom. Brady has 11 TDs in his last 4 meetings with Miami. He put up 22.7 DK points against them in Week #12. Keep in mind, usually the second meeting within a season is not as fruitful as the first as coaches have tape and can scheme a bit better. Finally, in the Pats last 4 games, 50% of the time, all three players, Brady, Lewis, and Burkhead managed double-digit draft Kings days.

 

 

Philly implied total = 25, facing the Rams, implied total = 26

If you are looking to Vegas to get a feel for a possible game stack, this is the one. This is the only matchup expected to finish north of 5o points, 51 to be exact. Sure the Pats/Miami has an over/under of 48.5, but Miami is only expected to score 2 TDs and change. Amazingly, these two teams are tied for the most points scored per game for this entire NFL season (30.1 each). On the season, each team has surpassed 30 points 8 different times so far. Heck, the Eagles have done it in 6 of their last 8 games. Keep your eyes peeled for Ertz news. He was concussed last week, failed to practice on Wednesday, and he got in a limited practice on Thursday. Trey Burton has been the TE to step up in Ertz’s absence. He could represent a great value on Draft Kings at just $2,900. The Rams have been tough against the position however, only allowing two TEs to amass 50 yards or more this season. This game will likely be a neutral game script, so it is hard to tell which position will go off. But with two implied team totals so high, the action is there. The easiest way to get exposure to scoring is through the QB position. However, Wentz is the most expensive QB on Draft Kings. Alshon Jeffery is 5th in air yards for the season. Pretend receivers caught every ball thrown to them and stopped right there, no yards after catch. That is basically what air yards represents. Jeffery is tied for 21st for Average Depth of Target per pass to WR. Not only that, he is 17th for WR targets. Air Yards is great for highlighting a receiver that is getting the attention just has not broken out. Well, Jeffery has been making up for lost time. In the last 5 games, he has 5 TDs. In the last 5 weeks, there have been 5 instances of a WR putting up 100 yards and/or scoring a TD against the Rams. Nelson Agholor had a monster game last week. His 27.1 Draft Kings points marks a career best. But he is far more volatile. Before last week, his best performance of 20.6 was followed up with a 7.9 DK performance against KC, a secondary that, on the season, is the 2nd worst against the position. Still, Agholor’s DK price is just $5,200, or $1,100 below Jeffery’s.

 

As for the Rams, Gurley is a great cash play this week. Considering you will basically get a free square with Gio Bernard, you can certainly afford Gurley’s price tag of $8,100. The Rams offensive line is ranked 5th best by Football Outsiders for Adjusted Line Yards, which is a fantastic stat used to calculate how good a line is for their running back. Alas however, there is always a rub. It just so happens that Philly ranks #1 for defensive Adjusted Line Yards. But, like the band Alabama sang, “You Can’t Keep a Good Man Down”, Gurley is a stud that rises above such defenses. Currently, no other running back is averaging more Draft Kings points per game than Mr. Todd Gurley. Robert Woods is Doubtful and has failed to practice so far this week. Watkins has certainly benefited in his two week absence. Sammy has 4 double-digit performances in the last 4 weeks. He has the higher ceiling and I like him in GPP only. Cooper Kupp can be considered in cash. Kupp is averaging nearly 8 targets per game in the last 6 weeks. But, I say “considered” because he will likely draw Patrick Robinson, the Eagles best CB. As always, nabbing a QB on a team expected to be in a shoot-out is a great way to get exposure to the majority of the scoring. Goff is the 3rd most expensive QB on draft Kings. At $6,600, he is $500 less than Wentz. In the last 5 weeks, Goff is Draft Kings 2nd best QB. He would be the QB I would back between the two. But a word to the wise, there are several cheaper QB plays this week, but with value guys like the aforementioned Gio, and Josh Gordon at just $5,500, and even Jermaine Kearse, who has put up back to back performances north of 26 DK points, is hard to ignore at just $4,800. Remember, Kerley is out. There are plenty of mid to low range priced players to choose from in Week #14

 

Pit implied total = 25.5 and are 7 point favorites

While there is not much that needs to be said about Le’Veon Bell, here are some things to remember. This is not on the main slate for Draft Kings as it is the Sunday night game. While Pitt is on the road, which does not favor Big Ben, it most certainly does Bell. For his career, he averages 4.0 ypc and has 9 TDs total at home. On the road, his ypc jumps to 4.61 and has racked up 22 TDs. The Steelers are favored by a TD despite being on the road. That means they should be playing with a lead for most of the game and relying on the ground game.

 

KC is home with a 26 point implied total, favored by 4.5 over Oakland

Alex Smith might have silenced some recent critics last week. This week, he can certainly continue such a performance against a fledgling Oakland D. In the last 5 weeks, only 5 teams are surrendering more DK points to opposing QBs than the Raiders. Oakland has 2 defensive players listed as Doubtful. Oakland is 22nd in D-line Adjusted Line Yards. This should give Smith time to find his downfield pass catchers. 17 WRs have put up double–digit DK days against Oakland this season. That list includes 3 different KC wide receivers from their earlier meeting this season. In that Week #7 game, Tyreek Hill amassed 25.2 DK points. His 36.5 DK performance last week is a career high. According to Football Outsiders, Oakland is dead last against opposing WR #1’s. I love a Smith/Hill stack this week. In GPP, I will even roll a tri-fecta by adding Hunt. He did have 87 yards in their previous meeting. Again, I am not playing him in cash, but will toss out a GPP triple stack. Why stop there. You want to get crazy, let’s get crazy. The Voltron stack, 4 players from one team. Oakland has always been notoriously bad against opposing TEs. Now, arguably, they face the league’s best in Travis Kelce. It seems he is immune to poor offensive play, which is just another reason he is a solid cash play this week. I will toss out one other solid cash play at the TE spot – Jason Witten.

 

Chargers are home with a 26.25 implied total. They opened as 6.5 favorites over the visiting Redskins

 

This game should have a positive game script for the Chargers. This makes Melvin Gordon another solid cash play at the RB spot. Gordon is tied for the 4th most carries among RBs this season. Out of the 6 RBs that have logged over 200 carries thus far, his points per opportunity in PPR is second highest (.46). Phillip Rivers is also in cash consideration. At $6,800, he is the 2nd most costly QB on the main slate. I do generally like to pay down at the QB position, and Prescott, at just $5,600 is tempting, plus you could even go lower with just $4,900 on Kizer. In cash, I think it is between Smith and Rivers. The Chargers QB put up over 31 DK points 2 weeks ago and just over 20 last week. He will face a Washington D that has allowed 5 different QBs to go for over 20 DK points this season. I know they have Norman, but he does not go in the slot, where Rivers will look for his favorite target in Keenan Allen. Allen, in the last 5 weeks, is averaging the 2nd most DK points for a WR. How good is that you ask? Well, his 5 week average is just .7 behind Antonio Brown on a per game basis. Hunter Henry is coming off his two best games of the season. The Redskins have allowed 10 different TEs to either score and/or go for over 90 yards this season.

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 10-5-2

For Week 14:

CHI (+6.5)

CLE (+3)

DAL (-3.5)

KC (-4)

NYJ (-1.5)

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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