What to do now...-  11/11/11

What to do now…

Many of you have reached the point in your season where the trade deadline has passed and your team still needs some tweaking.  You may either be stuck with underperforming high draft picks or have been hit hard by injuries.  It is important to not give up and make sure that you are looking at the waiver wire, free agents and injury situations around the league.  I am going to give you insight into some players that may hit the waiver wire, be free agents, or are underperformers I still believe in. 

QB

Tim Tebow – I am really not a huge Tebow fan, and I do not believe that he is a good NFL Quarterback.  That being said he does score a lot of fantasy points.  Since starting against San Diego in week 5 Tebow has put up (18, 25, 14, and27) points in standard ESPN scoring leagues.  He has not thrown for more than 172 yards in any game, although he has thrown 5 TD’s to 1 INT, not to mention the fact that he has rushed for 278 yards and a TD.  Tebow is the starter for the rest of the season and it looks like the Broncos are going to run a college style offense with a lot of QB option.  In standard leagues where rushing yards and TD’s are worth more to a QB it is imperative to grab Tebow if he is a free agent or hits waivers.

Matt Ryan – Ryan has fallen out of favor with most fantasy owners this year with his lackluster performance.  He came back to life last week with a 275 yards and a 3 TD game matching his high points on the season scoring 27pts.  The previous performance was a 4 TD game he had in week 2 against the Eagles which he followed up with 5 games in a row of throwing only 1 TD.  He might be on waivers right now and if he is I like his chances to score a lot more points the rest of the way.  He still has a bruising running game with Michael Turner and now Julio Jones is healthy and WOW!!! did he ever show up last week making two amazing touchdown plays.  Ryan has 5 games left at home and only 3 on the road and he plays much better at home.  Look for the Falcons and Ryan to regain some of that form they had last year.

RB

Reggie Bush – Bush has been a player that has been drafted way above his value for many years and has burned so many owners that had him that he frequently hits the waiver wire or is a free agent in your league.  Daniel Thomas is the main back in Miami and should be, as watching Bush for all these years the one thing we is know is that Reggie is not an inside the tackles type of runner.  Over the past 4 weeks he is averaging 12 run attempts and 3 receptions a game.  This is the best way for Bush to be successful.  He is definitely part of what the Dolphins want to do on offense, when they are able to run it.  Bush is still a dynamic player who can make huge plays and having Thomas working the heavy load on the inside should allow Bush to be able to create on the edge and be a better Fantasy back than he has ever been…although that is not say much.

Willis McGahee – McGahee came back from missing a week due to broken hand and all he did was rush for 163 yards and 2 TD.  When you look at the type of offense that the Broncos are employing right now, it is clear there are only two viable Fantasy starters and they are Tebow and McGahee.  Tebow is not going to throw for 300 yards in a game anytime soon and instead they plan to run the option and that means McGahee is going to get a lot of runs.  Since Tebow became the starter he has seen his carries increase each game to his 20 carries last week.  Expect McGahee to be a solid play the rest of the way and if you have Broncos receivers don’t expect any huge games.

Roy Helu – Helu made a big impression last week when his 14 receptions broke the Redskins Franchise record for formerly held by Art Monk with 13.  We know that Tim Hightower is out for the season and Ryan Torain is often injured and Mike Shanahan likes to use every running back he has and falls in and out of love with these guys.  Between Helu and Torain it is clear that Shanahan is favoring Helu as he drafted him this year and has younger legs than the injury prone Torain.  Look for the Redskins to find out exactly what they have in Helu the rest of the way.  With his ability to catch and the fact that Beck is checking down and Fred Davis is being double covered means that Helu is going to get a lot of chances.  I am not expecting another 14 catch game, but you should be expect him to get 5-6 a game and he is still a decent runner as he is averaging  4.5 yards per rush on the season.

WR

Torrey Smith – Smith is the deep the threat for the Ravens and made a huge TD catch last week against the Steelers, his first since his 3 TD game in week 3 where he also had 152 yards receiving.  He has been pretty much what you would expect from a rookie receiver with a lot of speed, but not the best hands, but he has been improving.  He has been benefited greatly by the fact that Lee Evans can’t get on the field he is developing a rapport with Joe Flacco.  For the rest of this season he is their deep threat and hopefully the dramatic TD catch he had after a horrible drop will be the confidence builder that he needed. 

Laurent Robinson – Robinson has a great opportunity for at least the next 2 weeks, but more likely 4 weeks, while Miles Austin recovers from reinjuring his hamstring.  Over the last 2 games he has had 5 catches and a TD in each game.  Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are going to be the main targets in the offense, but are also more likely to draw double teams and Robinson is quietly developing a nice rapport with Tony Romo.  Also looking at the fact that Austin reinjured his hamstring there is no telling for sure that when he does come back he will be at full strength or may be used more as a decoy which is another benefit for Robinson.  It is clear that even when Austin returns Robinson will be the third receiver for the Cowboys over Ogletree and they have a favorable schedule with Buffalo, Washington, Miami and Arizona in their next 4 games.

Brandon Marshall – Marshall had been underperforming since his strong week 1 performance and had gone without a TD since week 2 until breaking that streak last week and having a 100 yard receiving game.  Since the Dolphins bye in week 5 Marshall has averaged 6 catches a game and over 80 yards receiving.  Matt Moore is looking for Marshall more than any other receiver on the team and that trend will continue.  If Daniel Thomas can stay healthy that will allow Miami to run a more balanced offense which could mean more big plays for Marshall.  I also expect Marshall to make a run to improve his numbers and he should find the endzone more regularly than he has so far this season.

TE

Heath Miller – Over the last 3 games Miller has had 16 catches for 217 yards and a TD.  He is the safety blanket for Big Ben and has seen at least 6 targets each of the last three weeks.  Miller has been a forgotten man at the TE position this year, but is primed to continue to score points from here on out.  He is threat around the goal line and should continue to get good matchups in the middle of field with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown drawing coverage away from him.  He is a proven player in the league and while you will not get the top end games that Jermichael Finley can give you, at this point in the season he is a great waiver or free agent pick up that can help your team down the stretch.

Jake Ballard – Nobody knew who this guy was at the beginning of the season, but he is a legitimate part of the Giants high octane offense.  Like Heath Miller he is not going to score you any huge games, but if you need consistent points each week this could be your guy and he is probably available.  Over his last 4 games he has had 16 catches for 275 yards and 2 TD.  The Giants are going to continue to rely on their passing game with Bradshaw nursing a foot injury and Ballard is not going to draw any double coverage with the talent around him.  Ballard should continue to post similar numbers the rest of the season.

The main point is that while your trading deadline may have passed, it is important to pay attention to trends and to situations around the NFL.  You never know when an injury is going to happen and the next potential point scorer gets his chance to make his mark on the league.  When in doubt on deciding whether to hold onto a struggling player you picked up in week 2 or pick up someone off the free agent list it is important to look at how they have performed over the last month as a greater indication of what you can expect the rest of the way.  Check back next week for more moves to help you win your Fantasy League.

by Houdini

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- 11/11/11