April 22, 2018


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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Young Guns II

Young Guns II

Posted by d-Rx on 12/15/12

by   The Archer


More Articals


young guns II main graphic, rookie QBs in the NFL 2012






Just before the start of this season I wrote an article, Young Guns, in which I examined the 5 rookie quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, RG III, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill) and made my predictions on how their rookie seasons would end up.    I can honestly say that I was very impressed at this group as a whole, but the talent at the top really made an impact on Fantasy and the NFL this season. 


All 5 of the rookie quarterbacks have started all 13 games for their respective teams this season, with differing results.  In this article I am going share my preseason prediction and then my revelations from 13 games from each of these guys.  Let’s get right into these Young Guns.



andrew luck pyro character

Prediction - Andrew Luck – Luck has been called the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, and interestingly enough he will be replacing Manning in Indianapolis this season.  The normal pressure that would come replacing Manning has been diminished a bit since they suffered through horrible quarterback play last season.  Luck knew he was going to be the starter as soon as he signed his contract.  Luck is going to be plagued by inconsistent play in his first season.  He does not have a lot of help at the running back position with Donald Brown and will need to throw the ball a lot this season as the Colts figure to be behind in most of their games, especially against NFC North who they match up with this season.  Luck will have veteran help in the form of Reggie Wayne, but other than that he has 2 rookie tight ends and a concussed Austin Collie.  Luck is going to have some bright moments this season, but it will be a learning process.  Expect Luck to be more of the traditional rookie quarterback who will throw about the same amount of interceptions as touchdowns.  In keeper formats he is a must have at the quarterback position.    


Revelation – Luck has done a marvelous job in leading his Colts to an impressive 9-4 record.  As I predicted, Luck has been inconsistent on the season with 18 TD to 18 INT, although he has added 5 rushing TD.  Luck has shown his ability to be a dominant quarterback with six 300-yard passing games on the season, including a rookie record 433-yard performance in week 9 against Miami.  Luck has had some issues on the road this season throwing 8 TD to 13 INT in 6 road games so far this season.  That compares to the 10 TD and 5 INT he has thrown at home, although Luck has averaged 306 yards passing per game on the road, compared to 279 yards passing per game at home. Luck has taken a young team and is going to lead them into the NFL playoffs in his first season, another first for a first overall quarterback draft pick.  Luck has taken a bunch of young wide receivers, and Reggie Wayne, and formed them into a formidable receiving corps.  Luck has a veteran’s ability to have poise in the pocket and has led his team back in the 4th quarter more than once this season.  The Fantasy production we saw out of Luck was impressive and inconsistent, but for where he was drafted he made an impact this season.  Going forward Luck is going to be a force to be reckoned with.  



 RGIII pyro character

Prediction - RG III – RG III is the sexy pick this season to be this year’s Cam Newton.  He has an amazing arm and has the ability to run as well, which has everyone in fantasy ready to crown him as the next big thing.  RG III has the benefit of going to a team that does have more weapons than Luck has in Indy.  Garcon was a great addition through free agency and RG III should lean on him as well as Fred Davis.  There is a running game for RG III, but no one, not even those on the Redskins, knows who it will be from week to week.  RG III can run which is going to be his best asset in fantasy this season.  If you are in a league that does not have bonuses for 300-yard games, then RG III and his ability to run for 50 yards and score a TD will increase his fantasy value.  I don’t expect him to dominate the league with his arm as a pocket passer, but of all the rookies he has the best chance to make an impact due to his ability to run and should get at least 5 rushing TD this season.  


Revelation – I can say that I was right that he had the best chance to make an impact this season, but I was way off on just how impactful he would be.  Like Andrew Luck, RG III has thrown for 18 TD on the season and rushed for 6 more, although unlike Luck, RG III has only thrown 4 INT on the season.  The ability for such a dynamic player to be able to secure the ball for his team is why his Redskins are still making a playoff push. RG III is the dual threat as he has only thrown for 2,902 yards and has only had three 300-yard passing games, but has rushed for 748 yards on the season. The 24 TD to 4 INT is a rate that would make any Fantasy owner happy and then you think about all the big scoring plays he has made on the season and if you didn’t draft him, you wish you did.  RG III has had the biggest impact of any of this year’s rookie quarterbacks.  He has led countless Fantasy teams to the playoffs, but is now dealing with Grade 1 MCL sprain.  That is always the risk from a running quarterback, but RG III can also throw and throw accurately.  Next season this guy will be gone by the 2nd round in every draft.



 brandon weeden pyro character

Prediction - Brandon Weeden – Weeden earned his job by being someone not named Colt McCoy.  Weeden was taken in the first round by the Browns and is being given the keys to the car, which appears to be a 1982 Buick LeSabre station wagon.  Weeden’s best weapon on the team is fellow rookie Trent Richardson, who is dealing with a knee issue after off-season surgery and a subsequent clean out.  The fact is that Weeden is in a tough division and does not have the weapons in the receiving game that give him a lot of hope for fantasy this season.  Greg Little is the number 1 one option at receiver and they will be relying on second year tight end Jordan Cameron who had all of 6 catches his rookie season.  Weeden is destined to have the typical rookie season and I expect more interceptions than touchdowns and in my mind is a rookie to avoid this season.


Revelation – Weeden, like Luck, was surrounded by a lot of rookies on the offense, which did not help him early on, but as the season moved on we learned that he had a real deep threat in rookie Josh Gordon.  Weeden did prove me right as he has 13 TD to 15 INT on the season thus far.  Weeden was not able to throw for more than 2 TD in any game, and threw for 2 TD five times on the season.  Weeden threw for three 300-yard games, but was held under 250 yards 8 times on the season.  Weeden had a good run in weeks 2-7 where he threw for an average of 277.5 yards per game and threw 9 TD to 6 INT.  After that, Weeden was not much of a factor, but he did show that he is a much more capable quarterback than Colt McCoy.  Going into next season Weeden should not be viewed as a top 12 quarterback, but if they give him some more weapons in the offseason, he could be a sleeper candidate for next year. 



 ryan tannehill pyro character

Prediction - Ryan Tannehill – Tannehill seems destined to the same fate as Weeden.  He does not have any help at the wide receiver position as all of his receivers are going undrafted in 10 team and in most 12 team drafts.  That is very bad sign.  His running game is not proven with Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush.  Thomas dealt with injuries last season and has not looked good this preseason.  Bush is still a risk for injury himself, but seems like he will be the biggest benefactor to Tannehill starting, with his ability to make catches out of the backfield.  This is a real tough situation for Tannehill to step into and he was not supposed to be in this position as he was supposed to back up David Garrard until he suffered an injury in the preseason.  Tannehill needs some help at the skill positions and will not be viable until he gets some. 


Revelation – Tannehill had the most disappointing season of all the rookies, but he was not even supposed to be the starter.  Tannehill has only managed to throw 8 TD on the season compared to 12 INT.  Tannehill did and does not have much help around him on offense and it showed with Tannehill only throwing for one 300-yard game on the year.  It is hard to get excited about his season with his lack of weapons at the wide receiver, when you consider all of his wide receivers went undrafted in most Fantasy leagues this season.  Tannehill needs to get some help for him to have a positive outlook for next season, but he seems to be the quarterback in the worst situation.  Tannehill threw for under 250 yards 10 times on the season to this point.  With no playmakers theFantasy present and future does not look good for Tannehill.  



russell wilson pyro character 

Prediction - Russell Wilson – Wilson is the least likely rookie quarterback to be starting this season.  Wilson was a third round draft pick and seemed to be well behind Matt Flynn who was brought in as a free agent.  Then training camp and the preseason started and Seattle realized that Flynn was smoke and mirrors, while Wilson was proving himself.  Wilson was a winner in college and looks to bring that confidence to the NFL.  He is another quarterback who runs the ball if necessary and likely will get many opportunities this season.  Wilson has a chance to be the third best option of the rookie quarterbacks this season and could push Andrew Luck for second if he runs the ball as much as I think he will.  Wilson does not have very good receivers, but he is an accurate passer and will stick with the shorter passing game this season.  In my opinion, Wilson will not have a 300 yard passing game this season, but the running potential makes him a nice deep flyer this year.  


Revelation – The start of the season was a shaky one for Wilson as he was averaging 163 yards passing over his first 5 games and had 5 TD to 6 INT.  Then as I predicted his winner mentality and leadership took over as he gained confidence being the starter.  Over his last 8 games Wilson has averaged 209 yards passing a game, but has thrown 15 TD to only 3 INT.  Like RG III, Wilson has shown an amazing ability to not turn the ball over.  Although unlike RG III, Wilson has not rushed for a TD on the season and did not run as much as I expected him to at the outset of the season.  All of these stats indicate a quarterback with potential to be something as he develops.  As far as Fantasy this season Wilson started to become more consistent down the stretch, but the lack of yardage is a killer in a league that has become pass happy.  Wilson still needs more weapons in the passing game, but looking to next season with an offseason to develop more he could move up those charts next season. 




Overall this has been an amazing season for these Young Guns, and their successes should make other NFL teams feel more comfortable handing over the keys to a rookie going forward.  The thing that sticks out to me more than anything is the real success these players had in the NFL this year.  There is a possibility that Luck, RG III and Russell Wilson are all playing in the playoffs this season, which would be unheard of.  The experience that would give those players would benefit them greatly next season. I think it is also safe to say that we are going to have to wait a long time  to see another group of Young Guns like this posse. 




BY HOUDINI (email me)