Week 20
January 19, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Young Guns II

Young Guns II

Posted by d-Rx on 12/15/12

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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young guns II main graphic, rookie QBs in the NFL 2012

 

 

YOUNG GUNS II

 

 

Just before the start of this season I wrote an article, Young Guns, in which I examined the 5 rookie quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, RG III, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill) and made my predictions on how their rookie seasons would end up.    I can honestly say that I was very impressed at this group as a whole, but the talent at the top really made an impact on Fantasy and the NFL this season. 

 


All 5 of the rookie quarterbacks have started all 13 games for their respective teams this season, with differing results.  In this article I am going share my preseason prediction and then my revelations from 13 games from each of these guys.  Let’s get right into these Young Guns.

 

 

andrew luck pyro character

Prediction - Andrew Luck – Luck has been called the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, and interestingly enough he will be replacing Manning in Indianapolis this season.  The normal pressure that would come replacing Manning has been diminished a bit since they suffered through horrible quarterback play last season.  Luck knew he was going to be the starter as soon as he signed his contract.  Luck is going to be plagued by inconsistent play in his first season.  He does not have a lot of help at the running back position with Donald Brown and will need to throw the ball a lot this season as the Colts figure to be behind in most of their games, especially against NFC North who they match up with this season.  Luck will have veteran help in the form of Reggie Wayne, but other than that he has 2 rookie tight ends and a concussed Austin Collie.  Luck is going to have some bright moments this season, but it will be a learning process.  Expect Luck to be more of the traditional rookie quarterback who will throw about the same amount of interceptions as touchdowns.  In keeper formats he is a must have at the quarterback position.    

 

Revelation – Luck has done a marvelous job in leading his Colts to an impressive 9-4 record.  As I predicted, Luck has been inconsistent on the season with 18 TD to 18 INT, although he has added 5 rushing TD.  Luck has shown his ability to be a dominant quarterback with six 300-yard passing games on the season, including a rookie record 433-yard performance in week 9 against Miami.  Luck has had some issues on the road this season throwing 8 TD to 13 INT in 6 road games so far this season.  That compares to the 10 TD and 5 INT he has thrown at home, although Luck has averaged 306 yards passing per game on the road, compared to 279 yards passing per game at home. Luck has taken a young team and is going to lead them into the NFL playoffs in his first season, another first for a first overall quarterback draft pick.  Luck has taken a bunch of young wide receivers, and Reggie Wayne, and formed them into a formidable receiving corps.  Luck has a veteran’s ability to have poise in the pocket and has led his team back in the 4th quarter more than once this season.  The Fantasy production we saw out of Luck was impressive and inconsistent, but for where he was drafted he made an impact this season.  Going forward Luck is going to be a force to be reckoned with.  

 

 

 RGIII pyro character

Prediction - RG III – RG III is the sexy pick this season to be this year’s Cam Newton.  He has an amazing arm and has the ability to run as well, which has everyone in fantasy ready to crown him as the next big thing.  RG III has the benefit of going to a team that does have more weapons than Luck has in Indy.  Garcon was a great addition through free agency and RG III should lean on him as well as Fred Davis.  There is a running game for RG III, but no one, not even those on the Redskins, knows who it will be from week to week.  RG III can run which is going to be his best asset in fantasy this season.  If you are in a league that does not have bonuses for 300-yard games, then RG III and his ability to run for 50 yards and score a TD will increase his fantasy value.  I don’t expect him to dominate the league with his arm as a pocket passer, but of all the rookies he has the best chance to make an impact due to his ability to run and should get at least 5 rushing TD this season.  

 

Revelation – I can say that I was right that he had the best chance to make an impact this season, but I was way off on just how impactful he would be.  Like Andrew Luck, RG III has thrown for 18 TD on the season and rushed for 6 more, although unlike Luck, RG III has only thrown 4 INT on the season.  The ability for such a dynamic player to be able to secure the ball for his team is why his Redskins are still making a playoff push. RG III is the dual threat as he has only thrown for 2,902 yards and has only had three 300-yard passing games, but has rushed for 748 yards on the season. The 24 TD to 4 INT is a rate that would make any Fantasy owner happy and then you think about all the big scoring plays he has made on the season and if you didn’t draft him, you wish you did.  RG III has had the biggest impact of any of this year’s rookie quarterbacks.  He has led countless Fantasy teams to the playoffs, but is now dealing with Grade 1 MCL sprain.  That is always the risk from a running quarterback, but RG III can also throw and throw accurately.  Next season this guy will be gone by the 2nd round in every draft.

 

 

 brandon weeden pyro character

Prediction - Brandon Weeden – Weeden earned his job by being someone not named Colt McCoy.  Weeden was taken in the first round by the Browns and is being given the keys to the car, which appears to be a 1982 Buick LeSabre station wagon.  Weeden’s best weapon on the team is fellow rookie Trent Richardson, who is dealing with a knee issue after off-season surgery and a subsequent clean out.  The fact is that Weeden is in a tough division and does not have the weapons in the receiving game that give him a lot of hope for fantasy this season.  Greg Little is the number 1 one option at receiver and they will be relying on second year tight end Jordan Cameron who had all of 6 catches his rookie season.  Weeden is destined to have the typical rookie season and I expect more interceptions than touchdowns and in my mind is a rookie to avoid this season.

 

Revelation – Weeden, like Luck, was surrounded by a lot of rookies on the offense, which did not help him early on, but as the season moved on we learned that he had a real deep threat in rookie Josh Gordon.  Weeden did prove me right as he has 13 TD to 15 INT on the season thus far.  Weeden was not able to throw for more than 2 TD in any game, and threw for 2 TD five times on the season.  Weeden threw for three 300-yard games, but was held under 250 yards 8 times on the season.  Weeden had a good run in weeks 2-7 where he threw for an average of 277.5 yards per game and threw 9 TD to 6 INT.  After that, Weeden was not much of a factor, but he did show that he is a much more capable quarterback than Colt McCoy.  Going into next season Weeden should not be viewed as a top 12 quarterback, but if they give him some more weapons in the offseason, he could be a sleeper candidate for next year. 

 

 

 ryan tannehill pyro character

Prediction - Ryan Tannehill – Tannehill seems destined to the same fate as Weeden.  He does not have any help at the wide receiver position as all of his receivers are going undrafted in 10 team and in most 12 team drafts.  That is very bad sign.  His running game is not proven with Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush.  Thomas dealt with injuries last season and has not looked good this preseason.  Bush is still a risk for injury himself, but seems like he will be the biggest benefactor to Tannehill starting, with his ability to make catches out of the backfield.  This is a real tough situation for Tannehill to step into and he was not supposed to be in this position as he was supposed to back up David Garrard until he suffered an injury in the preseason.  Tannehill needs some help at the skill positions and will not be viable until he gets some. 

 

Revelation – Tannehill had the most disappointing season of all the rookies, but he was not even supposed to be the starter.  Tannehill has only managed to throw 8 TD on the season compared to 12 INT.  Tannehill did and does not have much help around him on offense and it showed with Tannehill only throwing for one 300-yard game on the year.  It is hard to get excited about his season with his lack of weapons at the wide receiver, when you consider all of his wide receivers went undrafted in most Fantasy leagues this season.  Tannehill needs to get some help for him to have a positive outlook for next season, but he seems to be the quarterback in the worst situation.  Tannehill threw for under 250 yards 10 times on the season to this point.  With no playmakers theFantasy present and future does not look good for Tannehill.  

 

 

russell wilson pyro character 

Prediction - Russell Wilson – Wilson is the least likely rookie quarterback to be starting this season.  Wilson was a third round draft pick and seemed to be well behind Matt Flynn who was brought in as a free agent.  Then training camp and the preseason started and Seattle realized that Flynn was smoke and mirrors, while Wilson was proving himself.  Wilson was a winner in college and looks to bring that confidence to the NFL.  He is another quarterback who runs the ball if necessary and likely will get many opportunities this season.  Wilson has a chance to be the third best option of the rookie quarterbacks this season and could push Andrew Luck for second if he runs the ball as much as I think he will.  Wilson does not have very good receivers, but he is an accurate passer and will stick with the shorter passing game this season.  In my opinion, Wilson will not have a 300 yard passing game this season, but the running potential makes him a nice deep flyer this year.  

 

Revelation – The start of the season was a shaky one for Wilson as he was averaging 163 yards passing over his first 5 games and had 5 TD to 6 INT.  Then as I predicted his winner mentality and leadership took over as he gained confidence being the starter.  Over his last 8 games Wilson has averaged 209 yards passing a game, but has thrown 15 TD to only 3 INT.  Like RG III, Wilson has shown an amazing ability to not turn the ball over.  Although unlike RG III, Wilson has not rushed for a TD on the season and did not run as much as I expected him to at the outset of the season.  All of these stats indicate a quarterback with potential to be something as he develops.  As far as Fantasy this season Wilson started to become more consistent down the stretch, but the lack of yardage is a killer in a league that has become pass happy.  Wilson still needs more weapons in the passing game, but looking to next season with an offseason to develop more he could move up those charts next season. 

 

 

 

Overall this has been an amazing season for these Young Guns, and their successes should make other NFL teams feel more comfortable handing over the keys to a rookie going forward.  The thing that sticks out to me more than anything is the real success these players had in the NFL this year.  There is a possibility that Luck, RG III and Russell Wilson are all playing in the playoffs this season, which would be unheard of.  The experience that would give those players would benefit them greatly next season. I think it is also safe to say that we are going to have to wait a long time  to see another group of Young Guns like this posse. 

 

 

 

BY HOUDINI (email me)