It was obviously a disappointing season for the Centaur, Michael Turner, but far from unexpected. After lugging around the punishment that comes with a 376-carry season in 2008, the statistics (The Curse of 350+ Carries) clearly foresaw the fate that awaited him in 2009. That’s not to say he didn’t fight the odds with everything he had, as can be seen by the 831-yard, 10-TD output he put forth in the first nine games of the Falcons season, but 350+ carries is eventually going to catch up to you no matter who you are. That being said, Turner did well enough to prove to his fans that the numbers he amassed in 2008 wasn’t a fluke and that he still has plans to make the Chargers pay for making him sit behind LT21 for the first four years of his career.
2010 will see Turner two years removed from the overload the Falcons put on his back in 2008. Couple this with the fact that he’s only 28-years old and it’s reasonable to think that it’s well within his reach to provide another top-of-the-line season for fantasy owners. In the past, Turner was referred to as the “Swedish Meatball” due to his gigantic body structure, but that handle really has no authenticity to it at all. In truth, he actually has a size 34 waist (which is quite slim in America today), but needs to buy size 42 jeans because it’s the first size up that fits over his monstrous legs (don’t ask us how we know this). My point is that Michael is in incredible shape, so don’t be scared off by his injury in 2009 and have confidence drafting him to your fantasy team as your #1 RB in 2010.
~ Turner will be healthy coming into the 2010 season
~ Unlike 2009, Atlanta has a relatively easy rushing schedule this year
~ Both WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez demand enough attention to make sure the defense doesn’t stack the middle of the field
~ How will Turner respond to coming off an injury-plagued season?
So one of the things that freaks us out about Turner is all those carries from 2008. 370+ is unsustainable. Here's what happens to RBs the year following a heavy workload - we went with 350+ for this one to show a rounded result, and went back 15 years. As we saw, Turner's carries and yards decreased by over half in 2009, which fits right in with this trend. Only two RBs over the last 15 years were able to string together two years of top production after toting the ball 370+ times - Edge and LT. And only another couple were able to follow up 350+ carry seasons with a similar result the next year. We know he's a year removed from the load, and we still love his possibilities this year, but Turner buyers... you've been warned.
Michael signed a six-year, $34.5 million contract in March of '08 that included $15 million guaranteed. Here is how the remainder of the deal plays out: