The Ravens finished 2008 ranked 11th in points scored (385) but don’t get too carried away with that stat as their defense (Ranked 2nd) creates a very short field for the offense and they only ranked 18th in total yards.  They have a young but very promising QB, but won’t figure to pass as much as they did under the Billick regime.   They just lost one of their WRs to retirement (Derrick Mason) and are paying for not addressing their WR situation in the off-season instead sticking with what they know best– defense and offensive lineman.  They drafted an offensive tackle with their first pick of the draft followed by three defensive players , then  a TE, another RB on a team loaded at that position. They also signed all-pro center Matt Birk.  No action on the WR front where they were already thin.   This strategy has worked well for this organization since moving from Cleveland 13 seasons ago (six post-season wins including a Super Bowl in 2000-2001).  The years they’ve struggled since then have been when employing QBs with names like Jeff Blake, Kyle Boller, and Tony Banks.  With Joe Flacco emerging as their guy for the next decade or more, Baltimore is making the right moves for their organization, but not for their fantasy skill positions.   Expect pedestrian aerial numbers and another RBBC in 2009.

The Ravens led all teams in rushing attempts last season in order to build confidence in rookie signal caller, Joe Flacco.  As long as the Ravens can continue to play shutdown defense, we see no reason that their #1 ranking in rush attempts is in danger – especially if Mason does not decide to un-retire.  With Rice, McClain, and McGahee all back in camp, expect another split duty scenario with McClain moving back to FB but continuing to hoover some goal-line carries and Rice to play a more prominent role this year.  McGahee had off-season knee and ankle surgery which explains away his no-show in spring “voluntary” practices.

Without Mason, they no longer have the pass catchers on staff to be prolific through the air, but again,  don’t seem to care as they completely ignored the WR position in the draft and weren’t serious bidders for any of this year’s free agent wide-outs.  Derrick Mason was as steady as they come but until he un-retires, they are looking at starting Demetrius Williams opposite Mark Clayton this season.  Todd Heap is past his prime at the ripe age of 29 given all of the injuries he’s sustained over the years, but the Ravens signed LJ Smith this past off-season.   

The Ravens have two viable fantasy starters on their team, and of ‘em is there Defense/Special Teams.   The other is Mark Clayton, and we think he could be in for a career year.  Expect an almost equal dose of running the football with good field position, clock management, and stellar defense – especially in light of Mason’s retirement announcement (we are convinced he will be back, though).  

If you draft one of the Ravens’ RBs, you really need to draft the others.  Ray Rice should be the first to go, and you would then have to burn your next round on McGahee, and then a late rounder on McClain.

Joe Flacco - He is no more than a backup fantasy QB, but it’s not for lack of talent.  He doesn't have the offensive firepower in the receiving game to be a fantasy starter and also needs more experience.  Also, as long as Baltimore continues to play lights out defense, their passing attempts will remain among the 5-7 lowest teams in the league.  Joe can be picked up in the last rounds of fantasy drafts.  

Ray Rice – Multiple sources report that he showed up to camp having added ten pounds of bulk across the chest and legs.  The knock on him was that he was too small to handle NFL beatings, despite carrying the ball a ton for Rutgers in his last two seasons.  He was effective in limited duty in 2008 - especially catching balls out of the backfield.  Rice will be the Ravens' RB1 and should see the majority of this RBBC.   His upside is limited by the Cam Cameron RB committee philosophy, but if McGahee is gimped again, he could be looking at fantasy points on par with McClain's from '08 (more total yards, less TDs).  He has the talent to explode with enough carries.  Upside galore with this pick.   
 
Willis McGahee - He posted career worst numbers in yards and attempts in 2008 but was dinged up for much of the season.  He has averaged 1,048 yards rushing and 1,230 total yards over his five year career.  Five years?  Seems like he’s been around longer than that (yes, we know he was drafted but didn’t play in 2003).   He had 33% (194) of the RB touches in 2008 and with Lorenzo Neal gone, McClain should return to FB (which is what they drafted him as).  McGahee had off-season ankle and knee surgery so will be able to dodge most off-season activity and will be listed 2nd on the depth chart behind Ray Rice.  He is super talented, but never seems to ingratiate himself with his coaches.  He will split carries with Rice and lose some goal-line carries to McClain. 

Le’Ron McClain - He had 902 yards rushing and 10 TDs including 20+ carries in five straight games to close the season.  He only had 13 carries for 15 yards in his last two NFL playoff games against Pitt and Denver.  He showed up to OTAs 20 pounds heavier than last season.  With Lorenzo Neal gone, McClain will return to FB.  His coaches are trying to debunk the myth of McClain not sliding over to FB, but we would then like to know who is going to be the leading blocker out of the backfield?  We understand McClain will be used more than Neal as a ball carrier, but he won't be seeing the touches that he did in '08.  Even if he mimics his TD totals, his yards will be in the shitter.

Mark Clayton – Clayton has four years logged in the league, two of which he caught balls from noodle-arm/dick,  Kyle Boller - who should not be employed as a signal caller in this league.  In 2006 with McNair under center, Clayton rattled off his only fantasy starter season registering 939 yards and five TDs good for #3 WR value.  Last year, with rookie Flacco calling the game, Clayton's numbers were better than they ever were with Boller (695 yards and four total TDs), but the Ravens called the fewest pass plays in the league and that balance could change with Flacco feeling more comfortable.  Clayton had bomb TDs of 47, 53, and 70 yards in '08 from Flacco's cannon arm.  Clayton's game is all vertical.  He's also entering the final year of his contract and won't be renewed until the Ravens can see what he does with this year with his sophomore QB.

Derrick Mason - He announced his retirement after the news of Steve McNair (RIP) being shot and killed by his guma in July, but switched his decision a few weeks later.  Mason has averaged 85 catches per game over his last eight seasons and gone for over 1,000 yards in seven of them - he is among the most consistent WRs in fantasy over the last 10 years.  He had more receiving yards then all the other WRs combined on the team last season.  He should be drafted as no more than a  #3 fantasy WR.  He has only gone for 100+ yards and a TD in the same game once in the last three seasons.   He is 35 and was playing under a contract that expires at the end of 2009.

Todd Heap - His best years are behind him given the myriad injuries to hamstring (2007 missed 10 games total), ankle (2001 and 2004 missed 14 games total), and now his back (2009).  He played in all 16 games in 2008 but posted career lows in per game stats in yards and TDs.  The LJ Smith signing is telling.  Heap should only be drafted when your buzz is peaking (20th round or later).

Analysis:  This is a decent line that should improve with the Matt Birk signing.  Another year together for the other four starters should help too.

Analysis:  Harbaugh was impressive in his first year as HC.  He took a lot of pressure away from Joe Flacco by pounding the run and letting his defense help win games.  Look for small decline in the large rushing numbers from last year with Flacco getting more comfortable, but don’t get too excited.  They will earn their W’s on the ground again.

Incoming

C  Matt Birk was signed 

TE  L.J. Smith was signed.

QB  John Beck was signed.

CB  Domonique Foxworth

Outgoing

C Jason Brown was signed by the Rams.

FB Lorenzo Neal

WR Terrence Copper

LB Bart Scott

CB Chris McAlister

QB Kyle Boller was signed by the Rams.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest