During a game between the Jags and the Bears back in ‘01, the play-by-play announcer, Dick Enberg, sent the feed down to Bonnie Bernstein who was about to interview Dick Jauron at halftime.  Bonnie, obviously with a lot of “Dick” on her mind, proceeded to yelp out in a surprised voice, “Two Dicks, Wow!”  And so the Bills’ 2009 season is forecasted.  Dick #1 (Jauron) tries to lead a team with no real previous identity into what will be his final season if they don’t win 10 games and go to the playoffs.  And behind Dick #2, we have Terrell Owens who enters camps as the favorite to steal all of the media attention and once again destroy a locker-room that probably needs it (nothing personal against the Bills players).  The TO signing is a deal with the devil, no doubt.  As to which “dick” will have more power over the team as the year progresses, your guess is not as good as ours – but we’re guessing Dick #2.  There is no avoiding the influence Owens has on a team, its attitude, its locker room, and its solidarity.  How Terrell Owens goes, so goes his team, and we’ve seen how that one ends three times now. 

Since Jauron took over the Bills back in 2006, they’ve been one of the worst fantasy teams in the league.  The offense has averaged a mere 18.5 pts/game over that three-year period, though last year they did jump up to 21 pts per game from 15.8 in 2007.  The addition of Terrell Owens will open things up, so you can expect to see the Bills to keep climbing.  They actually had a higher pass-to-run ratio last year at 52% (because they were playing from behind so often), and we believe that trend will continue with Owens and Lee Evans combining to make one of the best WR duos in the league. 

The Bills’ rushing attack is solid with the combination of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.  Lynch will start the season suspended (three games), but Jackson is a very capable back who averaged more YPC and receptions than Lynch did last year. 

The Bills got off to a hot start in 2008 winning five of their first six games and  averaging almost 25 pts/game, but their lack of explosiveness caught up to them as they ended up with a 7-9 record.  This was equal parts strength of schedule (they beat all losing teams in those first five wins) and inexperience.  Trent Edwards enters only his third year; that should not be forgotten – given all of the fire-power in Buffalo (Owens, Evans, Lynch and Jackson), he has potential. 

Terrible #2

Despite that no coach will openly cater (or even admit it) to any player, we are willing to bet that the first order of business in ’09 is for Jauron to call a healthy dose of “TO”-centric play calling to placate their resident douche.  Folks do your best, when sitting at that loud bar watching nine games at once on Sundays, to tune in to Bills games as much as possible, because if Trent Edwards and Dick Jauron are not able to get him the ball, Mt. St. Terrellens is going to erupt, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

Lining up opposite of him will be the most under-rated WR in the league, Lee Evans.  He is a burner who can nab the deep ball and take it to the house at any time.  Lee has suffered under inept QB play since entering the league and any double teams he has seen in the past are officially over.  He will benefit the most from TO’s arrival.

Edwards entering his third year with one of the best WR duos in the league will open up more holes for Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.  The Bills, also not believing their ugly-mugged starting RB can stay out of trouble, saw the need to go out and ink another backup, Dominic Rhodes, to a two-year deal.     
  
The playbook will feature more of whatever is working no matter what philosophy Jauron and his OC Turk Schonert were previously inclined to favor; both will be looking for new work if the Bills don’t go to the playoffs this season.  So if Edwards is having success airing it out, expect the team to continue with that so they can avoid any eruptions.  We expect the team to be attempting more total plays as they move the ball more consistently.

Trent Edwards – This 3rd year QB out of Stanford is nothing special so far, but he did show signs of improvement last year.  He will have much better targets to choose from than in his previous two years, so we expect him to throw up a few good games over the fantasy season.  Even with TO and Evans, though, he’s still only a backup fantasy QB at this point, but should be among the first few backup QBs selected just based on the upside that TO brings.  We have ranked in our top 15 QBs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Bills have the most intelligent QB combo in the league with Edwards coming from Stanford and Fitzpatrick coming from Harvard.  Ryan Fitzpatrick finished last in pretty much any QB stat that matters in ’08 and if Edwards goes down, we can’t wait to see TO run a few routes with him under center.

Marshawn Lynch – He'll be suspended for the first three games this year due to an off-season gun-toting/pot-smoking incident.  When he comes back, he'll have Jackson and Rhodes to split carries with, though he'll definitely get the bulk of the load.  Missing three games, looking at the load split with Jackson in '08, and the off-season signing of Dominic  Rhodes are all really terrible signs.  Toss in that Buffalo ranks 3rd (the lower the number, the more difficult) on our Strength of Schedule analysis, and you have the makings for a larger than normal bust.  We are avoiding this ugly stick.

Fred Jackson – He had better rushing and receiving YPC averages than Lynch last season and will start the season in the backfield given Lynch’s suspension.  Two of the three matches are going to be tough (NE and NO), so Lynch may be able to pry the job back when he returns.  Jackson is an essential handcuff to Lynch and shouldn’t be drafted too far after him. 

Dominic Rhodes – He signed a two-year deal with the Bills in the off-season and is nothing more than waiver-wire fodder in the event of multiple injuries to the Bills backfield. 

Terrell Owens – We have taken shots at this guy at every opportunity within this site, but for all of his uber-narcissistic “Me Me ME-O” toxic bull-crap, he remains one of the most prolific fantasy WRs the game has ever seen.  His numbers should suffer this year due to the system and QB he’ll be playing in/with however.  Trent Edwards is officially the biggest challenge of his career, as despite being an asshole of epic size and scope, he has made good career moves - QB-wise - going to Philly and then Dallas from San Francisco.  TO currently sits just outside our top-15 WRs, but that could change in either direction as training camp and the pre-season play out.

Lee Evans – He is the most underrated (and under-used) WR in recent NFL history, and a force like Owens lining up opposite him bodes well for his fantasy value.  No more double-teams for Lee, and in one-on-one coverage, Evans is really tough to cover.  His hands are outstanding and his speed is off the charts.  Evans is a fantasy starter and should be targeted among the first 30 WRs. 

Josh Reed – TO’s arrival officially ends this guy’s name being called in the last rounds of fantasy drafts.  He is nothing more than waiver-wire fodder in the event Evans or TO goes down to injury.

Derek Schouman – Whoever the starting TE on the Bills figures to be, he will harbor no fantasy value as basically the 3rd or 4th receiving options after Me-O, Evans, Lynch/Jackson, or Reed.  Schouman is not draft-worthy.

Shawn Nelson –  Whoever the starting TE on the Bills figures to be, he will harbor no fantasy value as basically the 3rd or 4th receiving options after Me-O, Evans, Lynch/Jackson, or Reed.  Nelson is not draft-worthy either.

Total 2008 Points = 124

Analysis:  This line was not very good last year and they don’t look a whole lot better this year.  The run game was average, but there were a bunch of sacks via the inexperienced Trent Edwards.  Jason Peters was a two time Pro Bowler in his early career and they traded him to the Eagles this off-season.     

Analysis:  Dick Jauron and Turk Schonert have not had much success passing the ball yet, but the bombastic Terrell Owens could have something to say about that.  Jauron has always been a ball control, no mistakes, and win with defense guy - Not very exciting for Fantasy Fans, but he is fired if the Bills don’t go to the playoffs this season.

Incoming

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed.

C Jeff Hangartner was signed and should start.

WR Terrell Owens was signed.

OG Seth McKinney signed on.

RB Dominic Rhodes was signed.

Outgoing

OG Derrick Dockery was cut and signed on with the Redskins.

TE Robert Royal was cut.

C Duke Preston signed on with the Packers.

OT Jason Peters was traded to the Eagles.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest