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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

2009 Schedule

  • Week 1

    BUF (24) @ NE (25)

    09/14/09

  • Week 2

    TB (20) @ BUF (33)

    09/20/09

  • Week 3

    NO (27) @ BUF (7)

    09/27/09

  • Week 4

    BUF (10) @ MIA (38)

    10/04/09

  • Week 5

    CLE (6) @ BUF (3)

    10/11/09

  • Week 6

    BUF (16) @ NYJ (13)

    10/18/09

  • Week 7

    BUF (20) @ CAR (9)

    10/25/09

  • Week 8

    HOU (31) @ BUF (10)

    11/01/09

  • Week 9

    bye

  • Week 10

    BUF (17) @ TEN (41)

    11/15/09

  • Week 11

    BUF (15) @ JAC (18)

    11/22/09

  • Week 12

    MIA (14) @ BUF (31)

    11/29/09

  • Week 13

    NYJ (19) @ BUF (13)

    12/03/09

  • Week 14

    BUF (16) @ KC (10)

    12/13/09

  • Week 15

    NE (17) @ BUF (10)

    12/20/09

  • Week 16

    BUF (3) @ ATL (31)

    12/27/09

  • Week 17

    IND (7) @ BUF (30)

    01/03/10

Offensive Depth Chart

A Tale of Two Dicks

During a game between the Jags and the Bears back in ‘01, the play-by-play announcer, Dick Enberg, sent the feed down to Bonnie Bernstein who was about to interview Dick Jauron at halftime.  Bonnie, obviously with a lot of “Dick” on her mind, proceeded to yelp out in a surprised voice, “Two Dicks, Wow!”  And so the Bills’ 2009 season is forecasted.  Dick #1 (Jauron) tries to lead a team with no real previous identity into what will be his final season if they don’t win 10 games and go to the playoffs.  And behind Dick #2, we have Terrell Owens who enters camps as the favorite to steal all of the media attention and once again destroy a locker-room that probably needs it (nothing personal against the Bills players).  The TO signing is a deal with the devil, no doubt.  As to which “dick” will have more power over the team as the year progresses, your guess is not as good as ours – but we’re guessing Dick #2.  There is no avoiding the influence Owens has on a team, its attitude, its locker room, and its solidarity.  How Terrell Owens goes, so goes his team, and we’ve seen how that one ends three times now. 


 

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Game Plan

Since Jauron took over the Bills back in 2006, they’ve been one of the worst fantasy teams in the league.  The offense has averaged a mere 18.5 pts/game over that three-year period, though last year they did jump up to 21 pts per game from 15.8 in 2007.  The addition of Terrell Owens will open things up, so you can expect to see the Bills to keep climbing.  They actually had a higher pass-to-run ratio last year at 52% (because they were playing from behind so often), and we believe that trend will continue with Owens and Lee Evans combining to make one of the best WR duos in the league. 


The Bills’ rushing attack is solid with the combination of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.  Lynch will start the season suspended (three games), but Jackson is a very capable back who averaged more YPC and receptions than Lynch did last year. 


The Bills got off to a hot start in 2008 winning five of their first six games and  averaging almost 25 pts/game, but their lack of explosiveness caught up to them as they ended up with a 7-9 record.  This was equal parts strength of schedule (they beat all losing teams in those first five wins) and inexperience.  Trent Edwards enters only his third year; that should not be forgotten – given all of the fire-power in Buffalo (Owens, Evans, Lynch and Jackson), he has potential. 


Terrible #2


Despite that no coach will openly cater (or even admit it) to any player, we are willing to bet that the first order of business in ’09 is for Jauron to call a healthy dose of “TO”-centric play calling to placate their resident douche.  Folks do your best, when sitting at that loud bar watching nine games at once on Sundays, to tune in to Bills games as much as possible, because if Trent Edwards and Dick Jauron are not able to get him the ball, Mt. St. Terrellens is going to erupt, and it ain't gonna be pretty.


Lining up opposite of him will be the most under-rated WR in the league, Lee Evans.  He is a burner who can nab the deep ball and take it to the house at any time.  Lee has suffered under inept QB play since entering the league and any double teams he has seen in the past are officially over.  He will benefit the most from TO’s arrival.


 

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2009 Fantasy Outlook

Edwards entering his third year with one of the best WR duos in the league will open up more holes for Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.  The Bills, also not believing their ugly-mugged starting RB can stay out of trouble, saw the need to go out and ink another backup, Dominic Rhodes, to a two-year deal.     
  
The playbook will feature more of whatever is working no matter what philosophy Jauron and his OC Turk Schonert were previously inclined to favor; both will be looking for new work if the Bills don’t go to the playoffs this season.  So if Edwards is having success airing it out, expect the team to continue with that so they can avoid any eruptions.  We expect the team to be attempting more total plays as they move the ball more consistently.


 

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QB

Trent Edwards – This 3rd year QB out of Stanford is nothing special so far, but he did show signs of improvement last year.  He will have much better targets to choose from than in his previous two years, so we expect him to throw up a few good games over the fantasy season.  Even with TO and Evans, though, he’s still only a backup fantasy QB at this point, but should be among the first few backup QBs selected just based on the upside that TO brings.  We have ranked in our top 15 QBs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Bills have the most intelligent QB combo in the league with Edwards coming from Stanford and Fitzpatrick coming from Harvard.  Ryan Fitzpatrick finished last in pretty much any QB stat that matters in ’08 and if Edwards goes down, we can’t wait to see TO run a few routes with him under center.


 

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RB

Marshawn Lynch – He'll be suspended for the first three games this year due to an off-season gun-toting/pot-smoking incident.  When he comes back, he'll have Jackson and Rhodes to split carries with, though he'll definitely get the bulk of the load.  Missing three games, looking at the load split with Jackson in '08, and the off-season signing of Dominic  Rhodes are all really terrible signs.  Toss in that Buffalo ranks 3rd (the lower the number, the more difficult) on our Strength of Schedule analysis, and you have the makings for a larger than normal bust.  We are avoiding this ugly stick.

Fred Jackson – He had better rushing and receiving YPC averages than Lynch last season and will start the season in the backfield given Lynch’s suspension.  Two of the three matches are going to be tough (NE and NO), so Lynch may be able to pry the job back when he returns.  Jackson is an essential handcuff to Lynch and shouldn’t be drafted too far after him. 

Dominic Rhodes
– He signed a two-year deal with the Bills in the off-season and is nothing more than waiver-wire fodder in the event of multiple injuries to the Bills backfield. 


 

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WR

Terrell Owens – We have taken shots at this guy at every opportunity within this site, but for all of his uber-narcissistic “Me Me ME-O” toxic bull-crap, he remains one of the most prolific fantasy WRs the game has ever seen.  His numbers should suffer this year due to the system and QB he’ll be playing in/with however.  Trent Edwards is officially the biggest challenge of his career, as despite being an asshole of epic size and scope, he has made good career moves - QB-wise - going to Philly and then Dallas from San Francisco.  TO currently sits just outside our top-15 WRs, but that could change in either direction as training camp and the pre-season play out.

Lee Evans – He is the most underrated (and under-used) WR in recent NFL history, and a force like Owens lining up opposite him bodes well for his fantasy value.  No more double-teams for Lee, and in one-on-one coverage, Evans is really tough to cover.  His hands are outstanding and his speed is off the charts.  Evans is a fantasy starter and should be targeted among the first 30 WRs. 

Josh Reed – TO’s arrival officially ends this guy’s name being called in the last rounds of fantasy drafts.  He is nothing more than waiver-wire fodder in the event Evans or TO goes down to injury.


 

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TE

Derek Schouman – Whoever the starting TE on the Bills figures to be, he will harbor no fantasy value as basically the 3rd or 4th receiving options after Me-O, Evans, Lynch/Jackson, or Reed.  Schouman is not draft-worthy.

Shawn Nelson –  Whoever the starting TE on the Bills figures to be, he will harbor no fantasy value as basically the 3rd or 4th receiving options after Me-O, Evans, Lynch/Jackson, or Reed.  Nelson is not draft-worthy either.


 

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Kicker

buffalo-kicker


Total 2008 Points = 124



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Bills Defense

buffalo-defense

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Offensive Line

Buffalo Offensive Line Rank


Buffalo Trenches


Analysis:  This line was not very good last year and they don’t look a whole lot better this year.  The run game was average, but there were a bunch of sacks via the inexperienced Trent Edwards.  Jason Peters was a two time Pro Bowler in his early career and they traded him to the Eagles this off-season.     


 

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Offensive Scheme

Buffalo Offensive Scheme


Analysis:  Dick Jauron and Turk Schonert have not had much success passing the ball yet, but the bombastic Terrell Owens could have something to say about that.  Jauron has always been a ball control, no mistakes, and win with defense guy - Not very exciting for Fantasy Fans, but he is fired if the Bills don’t go to the playoffs this season.


Buffalo Offensive Coordinator


 

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Major Off-Season Moves

Incoming


QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed.


C Jeff Hangartner was signed and should start.


WR Terrell Owens was signed.


OG Seth McKinney signed on.


RB Dominic Rhodes was signed.


 


Outgoing


OG Derrick Dockery was cut and signed on with the Redskins.


TE Robert Royal was cut.


C Duke Preston signed on with the Packers.


OT Jason Peters was traded to the Eagles.

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2009 Buffalo Bills Draft

 


buffalo bills 2009 draft

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Strength of Schedule

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  


Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:


80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    


15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.


5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 


If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 


 


Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest


Strength of Schedule

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Breaking News

Buffalo Bills hire Chan Gailey as head coach expand +

The Buffalo Bills announced today that they have hired Chan Gailey to be their next head coach.

Pyro's Take:

This isn't likely to go over too well in Buffalo, but at least they're getting a guy with experience. Gailey has been coaching for the last 38 years in a wide variety of settings, so the ineptitude of the Bills won't be anything he hasn't dealt with before. He will also take over the offensive coordinator position for a Bills team that hasn't ranked above the bottom eight for seven years running.

Trent Edwards put on injured reserve expand +

Bills quarterback Trent Edwards (ankle) was put on injured reserve Tuesday, thus ending his 2009 NFL season.

Pyro's Take:

One step closer to the world catching a full game glimpse of the bad boy known as Brian Brohm.

Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick out, Brian Brohm in expand +

Bills quarterbacks Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick both suffered ankle injuries in the loss to the Patriots last weekend and are highly unlikely to suit up for the game against the Falcons this week. QB Brian Brohm will get the start in their place if neither can go.

Pyro's Take:

Hmmm... good news or bad news? Brohm is nothing to write home about, but both Edwards and Fitzpatrick are about as bad of a QB tandem as it gets, so pick your poison. Whatever the case, Terrell Owens and Lee Evans take a hit to their fantasy value this upcoming weekend.

Owens active and ready to take on Moss expand +

Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens is active for the game against the Patriots today.

Pyro's Take:

Should be a real interesting matchup between Owens and Moss. Two of the most dominant receivers of all-time going head-to-head is gonna be a lot of fun to watch. They're both worth starting on your fantasy team, Moss as a WR1, and Owens as maybe a WR3.

Owens misses practice again expand +

Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens (illness) missed his second straight practice and is being listed as questionable on the team's Week 15 injury report.

Pyro's Take:

We're guessing Owens will play, but with Ryan Fitzgerald sucking so bad as of late, he probably shouldn't be used as more than a low-end WR3 or flex on your fantasy team this weekend.

TO can see playing two to three more years expand +

When asked about his playing future in an interview by Jay Glazer of FOX Sports, Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens said he thinks he will play two to three more years.
“Realistically I could see at least two to three,” said Owens. “I want to be able to walk away from this game under my own power and when I feel it’s time to walk away..."

Pyro's Take:

If put in the right situation with the right QB, Owens could still have an impact on some team's offense... just not the Bills. If he were to be able to behave himself, he would be a perfect hired gun for a team in need of an attention-drawing receiver such as the Chicago Bears.

Lynch practice in full Wednesday expand +

Bills running back Marshawn Lynch went through a full practice today after sitting out the second half of the game last week with a shoulder injury.

Pyro's Take:

Lynch will play this week, but can barely be used as a flex on your fantasy football team as Fred Jackson continues to eat into his touches and playing time.

Owens, Evans like Fitzpatrick over Edwards expand +

Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens said on Thursday that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should have remained the starter after the bye, and fellow wideout Lee Evans seconded the statement.
"He has a lot more experience. There are some situations where he'll be able to buy time with that experience. There will be some times where he can assess the defense and really take some shots down the field. We're looking forward to the opportunity with Ryan," said Owens.

Pyro's Take:

Fitzpatrick may have the starting job over Edwards, but that doesn't make him fantasy football material. He's had just two TD passes to four interceptions and a QB rating of 49.8 in the four games he's played in thus far, which hardly makes him a good option in any situation.

Trent Edwards goes into backup role expand +

Bills quarterback Trent Edwards is being benched this weekend in favor of backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrtick according to interim head coach Perry Fewell.

Pyro's Take:

Neither QB is worth having on your fantasy football team at this point.

Bills fire coach Dick Jauron after 3-6 start expand +

After plodding along to a 3-6 record and struggling all season long, the Buffalo Bills have decided to fire head coach Dick Jauron on Tuesday. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell is expected to be named as the interim head coach.

Pyro's Take:

Jauron was 24-33 since taking over for the Bills in 2006, and now stands with a 60-82 record over his career as an NFL head coach. As Bears fans know all too well, this move should have been made long ago... like maybe right after his first game when they should have realized what a mistake they made by hiring him in the first place.

Trent Edwards back to the bench? expand +

After quarterback Trent Edwards' mistakes and overall performance last week, the Buffalo Bills are expected to go back to QB Ryan Fitzgerald as their starter this Sunday against the Jaguars.

Pyro's Take:

This is like trading a stick of gum for a plastic spider-ring... neither one is worth more than a nickel.
Forget about us even mentioning fantasy football with these two schmoes.

TO active and starting against the Titans expand +

Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens has been declared active and will make his usual start on Sunday.

Pyro's Take:

Owens has become barely playable at the flex position on your fantasy football team, but with the Titans D being a bit porous, Owens can probably be used today.

Trent Edwards active and returns to starting role expand +

Bills quarterback Trent Edwards (concussion) is active and will return to his starting role under center against the Titans today.

Pyro's Take:

He wasn't playable on your fantasy football team before his concussion, and nothing has changed since.

TO back practicing Friday expand +

Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens (hip) was back practicing in the morning on Friday and looks likely to play this weekend against the Titans.

Pyro's Take:

Owens strained his hip on Tuesday and has barely practiced this week, but we highly doubt he'll miss the game this Sunday. He's a possible flex play on your fantasy football team, but if you have another option, we'd strongly consider using it.

Owens misses second straight practice expand +

Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens (hip) missed a second straight day of practice on Thursday.

Pyro's Take:

Owens is getting up there in age, so injuries tend to linger a little longer than usual. Our guess is that he plays, but he's barely worth a flex play on your fantasy football team at this point.