Buffalo Bills - 2014 Preseason #FF Preview 

There is a long list of things I never thought I would utter. “Mr. Bieber, can I have your autograph”;  “That’s it, there’s just TOO MUCH cowbell!” ; and finally, “What time are the London Bills playing?”. In the world of fantasy, it is easy to lose sight of reality, what is really important. Sometimes a city means more to a team than an address, a simple stadium location. Sometimes, an athlete can mean more to a town than just a poster. And sometimes, a player can be just the kind of guy that can unit a whole community. Jim Kelly, who is battling his second fight with mouth cancer, is just that kind of guy. Kelly reminds us to keep things in perspective. At a time when it is easy to be turned off by some of the antics of supposed role models, Kelly is the real deal in Buffalo. He spoke about keeping the Bills in Buffalo as well as the support he has received from the community. Keep fighting the good fight Jim.
We love you.

The new gunslinger in town is EJ Manuel. Although his rookie campaign showed some inconsistent passing, it also showed some raw talent. He played in 10 games last year. He completed 58.8% of his passes. He threw 11 TDs and 9 Interceptions.  All in all, his passer rating was 77.7. That does not inspire confidence. But, keep in mind he was a rookie, with an offensive line that ranked near the bottom for pass blocking (29^th). Manuel says he feels 100% healthy going into the 2014 season after struggling to stay on the field last year. His goal is to play smarter. A definite sleeper pick at the quarter back position, Manuel could be one of the next big running QBs. Not only that, Buffalo is brimming with just the kind of young talent that can boost an inexperienced quarterback. Another thing going for this young scrambler is the competition. Last year, Buffalo’s strength of schedule for the pass was 16^th. Buffalo comes in with the 2^nd easiest pass schedule this year. There O-line will need all the help it can get as only three other teams gave up more sacks than the Bills last year. Buffalo spent 3 of their 7 draft picks on offensive lineman in order to beef up pass protection. Not only will the new faces on the line help to improve Manuel’s performance in his second year, he has the legs to extend the play. There are a lot of factors in Manuel’s chance for fantasy success. Not only does he have a cherry of a passing schedule, he has dynamic trio in the backfield, and an incredibly talented group of receivers.

Read This: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000240169/EJ-Manuel-18-yard-touchdown-pass-to-Robert-Woods

Arguably the most gifted athlete in the draft, Sammy Watkins is indeed a freak. The Bills traded up for the chance to land him at the number four spot. Any time an organization makes moves to land a player, you know they will give him every opportunity to shine. Watkins put up some impressive numbers his last year at Clemson. He gained 1,464 receiving yards in 2013 on 101 catches. He went for over 90 yards in 9 different games. He scored 12 receiving TDs. What is amazing is where he caught the ball. 45% of his receptions were grabbed behind the line of scrimmage on screen plays. He then went on to average an amazing 9.7 YAC (yards after the catch). Perhaps the most explosive guy in space from this year’s draft, Watkins is a gifted route artisan with the ability to run a number of different patterns with precision. Watkins could be one of the most talented rookies in this year’s class. For more about this year’s rookies, check out Pyro’s  “3 Hours of Nothing but Rookies” Podcast.

Watkins joins a young, talented receiving core that boasts the 4^th best schedule for the position. Two rookies from last year hope to make strides entering their sophomore seasons.  Marquise Goodwin, who should backup to Watkins, snagged 17 balls for 283 yards last year. The slot receiver for the Bills is Robert Woods. He had 40 receptions, 587 yards, and 3 TDs in 2013. Finally, Mike Williams will be looking to rebound from Tampa Bay. Williams burst onto the NFL scene in 2010 with 964 yards and 11 TDs. He followed that up two years later with 996 yards and 9 TDs. Last year saw him hobbled by injuries. Williams is looking to rebuild his young career in Buffalo. The Bills will have a chance to put up some numbers in the passing game as long as Manuel takes strides this season. While I like Watkins in dynasty leagues, these receivers could end up cannibalizing one another. Keep your eyes on the preseason to see wear the chemistry develops.

One of last year’s biggest disappointments was undoubtedly C.J. Spiller. Without question, this 2013 first round pick was closer to Clark Kent than he was Superman. Spiller fell far short of expectations, leaving owners leery. Interestingly enough, his counterpart, Fred Jackson, was almost a mirror image in the stat. department. In fact, Spiller finished as the number 15 back when it came to total rushing yards (933), right behind him at 16, you guessed it, Fred Jackson (890). Spiller averaged 4.6 per tote, juxtaposed with Jackson who earned 4.3. So why did Spiller owners come away cursing draft day where as Jackson owners had that minty fresh feeling all season? Value -that plus the fact Spiller eked out only 2 touch downs and Jackson 9. I am betting Spiller is more of the player we saw in 2012 where he ran for 1,244 yards and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. The Bills have the 10^th best run schedule this coming year. Spiller can score from anywhere on the field. Although Jackson still has value as a 10^th round pick in a 12 team league, keep in mind he is 33 years old. Not only that, the Bills acquired Bryce Brown who ran for 341 yards on 75 carries for the Eagles last year. Brown’s presence means less action for Jackson. Both Spiller and Jackson are in the final year of their contracts. Don’t get me wrong, Jackson still has value for a 10^th rounder. Last year, the old man averaged the 4^th best fantasy points per game average for running backs. In 2014 however, Jackson may not receive as many opportunities he did last year. Because Spiller should only touch the ball 15 times a game if they want to maximize his performance, someone else needs to pick up the slack. That someone else could very well be Bryce Brown, who has a lot less tread on the tires. I would rather be the guy who gets off the sinking ship too early as opposed to too late with Jackson. This could be the year gamble on Spiller, especially if you can get him in the 5^th round.  Here is an interesting stat. Spiller was approximately the 27^th best fantasy running back last year when it came to points. He only scored 2 TDs. Pyro looked at percentages from last year. We asked - where do guys build their points? Touch downs are entirely too hard to predict or rely on. Yardage is a better indicator of a player’s value. Out of all of C.J. Spiller’s total fantasy points from last year, 75.7% came from yards on the ground. That was the fourth highest percentage for running backs. Keep in mind, last year was a down year for him. If he had just three more touchdowns, he would have been in the top 20 for fantasy running back scoring. In comparison, only 47.9% of Fred Jackson’s fantasy value was tied to rushing yards. Do you want to bet on Jackson getting into the end zone 9 times?  I want guys that amass points through yardage. Looking at the last five games of the 2013 season, Spiller gained 420 yards rushing (5^th best for that span), whereas Jackson only amassed 305. Again, yardage is a better indicator of consistency and performance. You want to draft guys that are not touch down dependant, simply because it is too hard to repeat scoring from year to year. We have crunched the numbers, you can find the “Touchdown Dependency Chart” on this year’s draft kit.

PICK UP A COPY OF OUR DRAFT KIT http://www.pyromaniac.com/op_eds/2014-pyro-ff-draft-kit-v2

The Bills have two tight ends to discuss. Last year, Scott Chandler had 53 receptions for 655 yards and 2 TDs. He only averaged 4.72 fantasy points per game. Chandler is a name that only comes into play in 16 team leagues. However, with such depth at the position, chances are you will be able to find a better option. Tony Moeaki is a guy who will never see his full potential due to injury. He is on the bubble to make the team, but should be the backup this year.

Several members of last year’s 7^th best fantasy defense will not be on the roster for opening day. Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, will most likely be suspended for the start of the 2014 season for two incidents: one involves synthetic marijuana, and the other drag racing. Mmmm, when have you ever told a pothead to slow down because they were moving was moving too fast? Anyway,  Kiko Alonso, a rising force to be reckoned with, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Finally, pro bowl strong safety, Jairus Byrd, was lost to free agency. However, they have a strong depth of line-backers and a healthy mix of veterans and young talent. The Bills will be changing their scheme under new defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz. The Lions, under the power of the Schwartz, was a bit of a rudder-less ship last year. Rick Moranis as Dark Helmet could have controlled the locker room better than old Schwartz.

The Lions, despite having a wealth of young talent on the defensive side of the ball, finished 26^th in fantasy last year with Schwartz at the helm.  He has some big shoes to fill in Buffalo now that Mike Pettine is running things in Cleveland. The Bills D should still be a top five talent. The bonus here is value. You will be likely to get them with the last pick in your draft as some of the fantasy douche canoe sites do not even have them rated in their top 12. The Bills will undoubtedly get a boost from their divisional opponents.  They play the Dolphins and the Jets twice. Statistically, both offenses were in the bottom 25% for yards per game last year, neither offense averaged 20 points per game.  The meager offensive talent the Bills will face should help Schwartz’s D. If that doesn’t work, the devastating taunt of “Our coordinator can beat up your coordinator” will undoubtedly do the trick. We all remember Harbaugh running for the hills after Schwartz came after him with the eye of the tiger.

By Mo

ANDRE REED FINALLY GETS HIS RESPECT

Andre Reed is the Rodney Dangerfield of NFL wide receivers...he gets no respect. Reed spent 15 of his 16 seasons in Buffalo and posted some amazing numbers for the Bills, yet he is not mentioned enough as one of the best receivers of his era. It took until now, 2014, for Andre Reed to get his due and make it into the Hall of Fame. Congratulations! I will examine his career and demonstrate why he was one of the best receivers of his era, and why it is travesty it took this long for him to get the honor he deserved. 

Andre Reed and his no respect goes all the way back to his college days. Reed did not attend one of the college football factories, and instead played for the University of Pennsylvania at Kutztown. He was a dominant force in college, demonstrating great speed and the ability to make a tough catch in traffic. Although, he fell to the fourth round in the 1985 draft, where he was selected 86^th overall by the Bills. This was due to the college he went to, as well as the fact that he did not have the prototypical size for what general managers were looking for in receivers, at 6’2” and 190 pounds.

Rodney Dangerfield: With my dog I don't get no respect. He keeps barking at the front door. He don't want to go out. He wants me to leave.

When Andre got to Buffalo he became the best receiver in Bills history. The most impressive feat Reed had was that he was so durable and consistent during his 15 years as a Bills receiver, most of which was spent in the slot. #83 lived over the middle and was not afraid to stick his nose into traffic to make a catch. The era in which Reed played was one that favored running attacks over passing games. When Andre Reed played the NFL looked very different than it does today, and Jim Kelly provides the perfect evidence.

Kelly was the leader of the Bills K-Gun offense, and was known as one of the best passing quarterbacks of his day. Although, you would not know that if you went back and looked at Kelly’s stats. Jim Kelly never had a season with more than 4,000 yards passing and only two seasons with more than 3,500 yards. Kelly did throw for more than 3,000 yards eight times in his career. If Kelly had played into today’s era, he would definitely have been a candidate to throw for over 5,000 yards.

Rodney Dangerfield: A girl phoned me and said, "Come on over. There's nobody home." I went over. Nobody was home!

Not only did Andre play in an era where the passing game was dwarfed by the running attack, he played with a ton of other talented players on the offensive side of the ball that limited his overall touches. The Bills had one of the greatest running backs of the day in Thurman “Thurmal” Thomas who was an absolute dual threat running back. Thomas had over 40 catches in a season six times, and more than 25 catches ten times. Then there all the other receivers that Reed had to fight against for attention.

 The Bills were one of the most dominating teams in the NFL during Reed’s time there. A big reason for this was the fact that Reed never had to do it alone. The Bills had plenty of other receivers that Jim Kelly could spread the ball around to: James Lofton, Quinn Early, Chris Burkett, Bill Brooks, Don Beebe, Pete Metzelaars and Eric Moulds. Even with all of these receivers stealing catches from Reed, he was still able to post great and consistent numbers.

Rodney Dangerfield: I remember I was so depressed I was going to jump out a window on the tenth floor. They sent a priest up to talk to me. He said, "On your mark..."

Reed had four 1,000-yard receiving seasons in his Bills career, but had more than 739 receiving yards 12 times. Andre was just as consistent with receptions having 90 catches once, but more than 60 catches nine times and more than 50 grabs 13 times. Reed was a consistent source of production throughout his entire 15-year career with the Bills, and showed just how durable and great he was.

When you compare Reed’s numbers versus the rivals of his day his numbers do stack up. Of the receivers that played in his era that have made the Hall of Fame, Reed’s numbers are very comparable to James Lofton, Art Monk and Steve Largent. His yearly consistency was just as good as all of these players with seven seasons over 900 yards receiving, which was more than Monk, the same as Lofton and two less than Largent. Reed was a more prolific in his receptions than both Largent and Lofton, both of whom never had 80 or more catches in a season, which Reed did three times. When it comes to ability to score touchdowns, Reed was better than Monk (79) and Lofton (75) with 87 scores in his career. Largent bested him with 100, but Largent did not have many other receivers to steal targets away from him as Reed did.

Rodney Dangerfield:  When I was a kid I got no respect. The time I was kidnapped, and the kidnappers sent my parents a note they said, "We want five thousand dollars or you'll see your kid again."

Andre finished his career with 951 catches for 13,198 yards and 87 touchdowns. Those numbers rank him 11^th all-time in receptions, 12^th in touchdowns, and 13^th in yardage. In terms of receptions Reed finished in the top 25 amongst receivers eight times, top 10 five times and top five twice. As for yardage he finished top 25 nine times, top 10 three times and top five twice. Reed may have played in the slot, but he scored touchdowns with frequency, and finished top 25 eight times, top 10 four times, and top five once. What he did for the Bills during his 15 years was even more amazing.

With all the talent the Bills had on their roster during Reed’s time, he still led the team in touchdowns and catches 10 times and in receiving yards nine times during his 15 years with the team. While Reed dominated for the Bills, he still gets no respect as one of the greatest receivers of his day. Reed was the leading receiver on a team that went to four straight Super Bowls. He also made seven Pro Bowls and was named an All-Conference player four times in his career.

Rodney Dangerfield: I was making love to this girl and she started crying. I said, "Are you going to hate yourself in the morning?" She said, "No, I hate myself now."

There is no doubt in my mind that Andre Reed was one of the greatest receivers of his generation. If Reed did not have all the other great complimentary players around him he would have posted bigger individual numbers, but Reed was never about individual accomplishment. He was a consummate team player and team leader in that regard. The reason the Bills were as successful as they were, was due to the unselfish nature of the guys on offense, and that started with Andre Reed. So when you go back and think about Reed, don’t you think it is time to give him credit as a player that posted awesome numbers while also being a great team player, on a great team? Give the man his RESPECT!!!  HOF!!!  Worthy!!! Worthy!!! Worthy!!!          

CHART OF THE BEST WRS OF ANDRE REED'S ERA (like every single one of 'em)

VIEW THIS CHART FULL-SIZE

ANDRE REED HIGHLIGHTS

RODNEY ON CARSON

By Houdini

Eric Moulds will always be one of my favorite wide receivers ever!!!  Moulds was a fantastic receiver for the Buffalo Bills from 1996-2005 and was their big play threat.  Moulds did not have the benefit of a great quarterback throughout his career, but was a dominant receiver and helped me win a fantasy title with his 1998 season. 

Moulds was a player that was seldom used in his first 2 seasons, sitting behind Andre Reed and Quinn Early, but he made a splash in 1998.  Moulds made the mystical third year wide receiver jump and had a breakout season.  Moulds finally got playing time and showed his big play ability with a monster 20.4 yards per reception. Rob Johnson was his quarterback to start the season, but after a 1-3 start he was lifted for Doug Flutie.  Flutie was just what Moulds needed to show how dominant he could be. 

With Rob Johnson under center he had 18 receptions for 314 yard and 1 TD in 5 games.  That was still an impressive 17.44 yards per catch, but there was still a lack of TD production.  Doug Flutie was the starter the next 11 games and Moulds exploded.  Moulds had 49 receptions for 1,054 yards and 8 TD, for an amazing 21.51 yards per reception and nearly 100 yards a game. In a week 7 win at Carolina, Flutie hooked up with Moulds for 2 TD bombs in a 145-yard performance.  Moulds was then held under 100 yards for the next 4 games and scored only 1 TD, but starting in week 12 went on a mad run. 

Moulds had 8 receptions for 177 yards and a TD in a week 12 loss to New England, and followed it up with his best performance of the regular season.  The next week, against the Cincinnati Bengals, Moulds caught 6 passes for 196 yards, including 2 big TD bombs from Flutie, the signature of their on-field chemistry.  Moulds showed his long catch ability again in the final game of the regular season with 2 receptions for 90 yards and a TD.  Moulds, though, would save his best for last.  

The Bills would have to travel to division foe Miami for a playoff match-up, and while Moulds had scored a TD in each of the 2 games they played that season, the Dolphins had held him to 140 total yards in those games.  Moulds showed early that he was the only receiver on the Bills that was ready to play this game and Doug Flutie looked to him early and often.  The two finally hooked up on a 32-yard TD pass early in the 3rd quarter to answer a quick Miami score and tie the game at 14.  Moulds would continue to find big holes in the Dolphins secondary on the way to an NFL post-season receiving yard record.   Moulds would finish a brilliant performance with 9 receptions for 240 yards and 1 TD in a tough 24-17 loss. 

Moulds would have trouble getting continuity with the constant quarterback controversy between Doug Flutie and Rob Johnson through the 2000 season.  It did not get much better for Moulds in 2001 when Alex Van Pelt tried his hand at quarterbacking.  Finally, for Moulds, Drew Bledsoe arrived in 2003 and remained his starter for the rest of his time in Buffalo.  Moulds was never able to put up great back to back seasons, but from 1998-2005 Moulds would put up a great season every other year.  

Moulds had his best season in 2002, when Drew Bledsoe arrived.  Moulds had 100 receptions for 1,292 yards and his career best 10 TD.  Moulds had become a more consistent receiver that year, but this season was also the first season he averaged less than 13 yards a catch (12.9 YPC) since his second season in the league and he would never top that mark again in his career. 

Moulds was a pure excitement player to watch and to have on your fantasy team (if you bet on a breakout or a comeback season).  It would have been interesting to see what kind of stats Moulds would have put up with Jim Kelly as his quarterback.  As it stands Moulds was one of the most exciting players of his era and the fact that he was able to produce with inconsistent play from the quarterback position is a testament to his skill and ability.

By Houdini

Frank Reich is not a name that comes to mind when you think of great quarterbacks.  Frank Reich was a player who had lightning strike twice. Reich was the quarterback responsible for orchestrating the biggest comeback in college football and NFL post-season history.  If Frank Reich were in the old west his name would have been “The Comeback Kid”.  

Frank Reich was the backup to quarterback Jim Kelly for the Bills in 1992.  Reich had to take over for the Playoff run after Kelly was injured in the final game of the season.  The Bills were a team known for their K-Gun offense, although they would be without the K for their wildcard matchup with the Houston Oilers, another high-powered offensive team. 

Hall of Famer Warren Moon and a trio of deadly receivers, Haywood Jeffires, Ernest Givens and Curtis Duncan led the Oilers.  The Oilers would have to leave the comfort of the Astrodome and head to Rich Stadium and play in the nasty elements.  The moment the game started it looked like the Bills were the dome team, while the Oilers looked quite comfortable in the cold.  Moon was nearly flawless; completing 19 of 22 passes for 220 yards and 4 TD.  The Oilers had a commanding 28-3 lead at the half.

The second half did not start out any better for Reich and the Bills.  On the Bills first drive of the second half Reich was intercepted when his pass went off his tight end, Keith McKeller’s, hands and Bubba McDowell returned the interception 58 yards to pay dirt.  Thurman Thomas was also injured on this drive and would not return to the game: Oilers 35 Bills 3. Reich was starring down a 32-point deficit with just under a half of football to play, but he had been here before.    

In college Reich was the backup to quarterback Stan Gelbaugh for the Maryland Terrapins.  The Terps were playing the unbeaten Miami Hurricanes, led by quarterback Bernie Kosar.  Kosar and the Canes jumped all over the Terps and led 31-0 at the half.  Reich came in to relieve Gelbaugh and preceded to lead the Terps back to a 42-40 victory.  This was the largest comeback in college football history at the time.  Reich was now in a similar situation facing a 32-point deficit and team that had all the momentum in the game. 

The Bills would get good field position on their next possession and drove 10 plays for a TD run by Kenny Davis.  Half of the third quarter was now gone and the Bills were still down 25 points.  The Bills needed a spark, and Steve Christie kicked and recovered an onside kick.  Four plays later Reich hit Don Beebe on a 38-yard TD cutting the deficit to 18 and taking less than a minute off the clock.  Reich had Rich stadium rocking and believing and now it was the defenses turn to step up. 

On the next drive the Bills defense finally stood strong and forced the Oilers to punt for the first time in the game.  The Oilers had dominated the time of possession in the first half, but with the defensive TD to start the second half their starters stood on the sidelines in the cold for over 30 minutes before getting onto the field, and starting to look like a dome team out in the cold. 

The Bills took over at their own 41-yard line and Reich completed big passes to James Lofton and Kenny Davis before connecting with Andre Reed for a 26-yard TD.  The Bills now trailed the Oilers 35-24 with all the momentum of the crowd and a quarter left to play. 

Houston started on their next drive and disaster struck.  Moon threw a pass intended for Webster Slaughter that went off his hands and was intercepted by Henry Jones and returned to the Houston 23-yard line.  Reich was not able to get a first down and the Bills decided to go for it on 4th and 5.  Reich showed his “Comeback Kid” savvy as he hit Andre Reed for a TD.  Reich had just cut a 32-point deficit down to 4 in 6:52 of game clock: Oilers 35 Bills 31.  The Bills had stormed back into the game. 

The pace of the game slowed down in the fourth quarter, but the magic was still behind the Bills.  The Oilers had finally put together an offensive drive and were going for a field goal to extend their lead, but the snap was fumbled and recovered by Darryl Talley.  Reich began to orchestrate a beautiful drive down field with a nice combination of pass and run plays.  Reich finished the drive hitting Andre Reed on a 17-yard TD pass: Oilers 35 Bills 38.  The Bills had taken their first lead of the game with 3:08 left in the game.  Reich was happy, but there was still a lot of time and Warren Moon on the other side.

Moon responded and drove the Oilers 63 yards downfield to put them in field goal range.  Al Del Greco nailed a 26-yard field goal to tie the game and send it to overtime.   The Oilers got the kick and on their first drive of overtime Warren Moon threw a pass to Ernest Givens, but was intercepted by Nate Odomes and after a penalty on the Oilers, during the return, the Bills had the ball at the Oilers 20-yard line.  Reich then ran 2 running plays and held the ball as Steve Christie kicked the game winning field goal to advance the Bills to the AFC championship. 

Reich had just completed the greatest comeback in NFL post-season history.  Reich is one of those players in the history of sports that was able to catch lightning in a bottle.  Reich was not a great quarterback and would never have a moment in his career that would come close to this one.  The amazing feat for Reich is that he did in college as well, under just as strange circumstances as a backup quarterback.  So in my mind he will never be a backup, instead he will always be “The Comeback Kid”. 

              1    2     3    4   OT  Total
Oilers    7    21    7    3    0     38
Bills       3    0    28    7    3     41

By Houdini