Franchises like the Cincinnati Bengals fascinate us.  We love to watch people that don’t know what they’re doing…do stuff.   Whether it’s inviting a major distraction into training camp, making the wrong decisions about personnel or draft picks, or deciding not to pay a guy who deserves to be paid; it’s all worth the price of admission.  Crank up the merry-go-round and what not, because the circus is back in town.  We wouldn’t call the Bengals the greatest show on earth, but neither is this:




It looks as if Japan is leading an arena rock/hair band revival and we approve!

The Cincinnati Bengals have agreed to allow HBO Hard Knocks into their training camp this season and this can only mean a lot of penalties, turnovers, and general sloppy play from them in 2009.   You would think Marvin Lewis would have been completely against HBO infesting their pre-season given that his job has got to be on the line this season.   He still doesn’t seem to get it…

“HARD KNOCKS will give Bengals fans a tremendous opportunity for an inside look at their team,” says Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis. “And for NFL fans across the country, it will provide another expertly produced program on how an NFL team operates behind the scenes. As for our players and coaches, the presence of HBO and NFL Films on a daily basis during the preseason will bring a heightened sense of excitement and intensity to the jobs we are all doing to get ready for a great year.”

You forgot “as well as present an enormous distraction, promote idiocy among the clowns on the team, and set a tone of general lightheartedness.”   He doesn’t handle the team well without the distraction of Hollywood after every pass, catch, carry, tackle, and drill.  Can’t you see it? Ochocinco is already hard at work – not preparing for football – but planning a whole host of pranks he can play in order to look like a fool in front of the cameras.  Poor Palmer, he doesn’t deserve all of this. 

Did the loss of Carson Palmer really matter much last year?   They were 0-5 by the time he went on the IR and the offense had only generated six total TDs in those five games.  The Bengals front office has done a poor job of building this franchise, and instead, continue to remain true to their colors by exercising poor judgment in free agent signings and draft picks, and not plunking down for guys that do bring the wins (Housh).   Marvin Lewis has not done anything that resembles impressive to keep this team progressing to new levels, either.  

Ryan Fitzpatrick was the worst QB in the league by any metric applied in 2008.  Their running game was anchored by Cedric Benson, who didn’t really stand a chance, but has yet to justify his 4th overall 2005 draft billing.  

The offensive line is the biggest question mark that this team is faced with as three ’08 starters won’t be back in ‘09.  They cut Levi Jones after giving up 5.5 sacks in 11 games, they let Stacy Andrews go to the Eagles via free agency after letting up 9.5 sacks good for 30th among Right Tackles,  and center Eric Ghiaciuc was also released as he ranked 27th among centers giving up four sacks.   Typical of Bengal management, they didn’t, for one second, stop to think that many of these sacks could have been due to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s inability to wing the ball past 10 yards with any degree of accuracy.  This same unit allowed Palmer to be sacked only 17 times in 2007 good for 2nd fewest sacks allowed in the league – and the Bengals were 8th overall in pass attempts.   They now appear to be starting rookie Andre Davis at right tackle, undrafted second year guy Kyle Cook at Center, and the left tackle spot is currently unsettled.  Palmer seems to be a man on a mission this off-season, but if this line can’t give him some time, it’ll be last season’s nightmare all over again.

Palmer is back and all better from his elbow injury and will not be short on targets with Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry spreading the field.  Teams will make Benson beat them every Sunday and bring an onslaught of blitz packages to try and stop Palmer from getting into a groove to start the season.  Benson owners should circle weeks 1 (Denver 27th ranked rush D in ‘08), 2 (Green Bay 26th), 4 (Cleveland 28th), 6 (Houston 23rd), 11 (Oakland 31st), 13 (Detroit 32nd), and fantasy super bowl week 16  (Kansas City 30th).  That is a fairly easy schedule.  Benson has more fantasy value than ever before in his lame-duck career.  

Carson Palmer -  The o-line appears to be in shambles (save for rookie Andre Davis), his most dependable target is gone (Housh), and he is coming off of a serious elbow injury that forced him out of 10 games last season, yet we still love him.  Look, when Palmer is healthy, he is a fantasy beast averaging 4,000 yards and 28.6 TDs from 2005-2007 which ranks top five in both categories.  Recently signed Laveranues Coles has to be going nuts to finally have a QB with a strong and accurate arm to throw him the ball.   There is another more obscure reason, though.  Chris Henry...he has Moss-like abilities, but was overly immature when he entered the league in 2005.  As a third WR, he is a lot to account for alongside Ochocinco and Coles, and we are convinced that he has grown up enough to manage not to end up in the Cincinnati police blotter.  If he does, and if this line can buy Palmer enough time to drop back, this will again be a top aerial attack in the league.    

JT O’Sullivan – “Just Turnovers” O’Sullivan is a journeyman backup QB that is not worthy of drafting.  Could be a good pickup if Palmer goes down and you truly ignored backing up your QBs in the draft. 

Cedric Benson – We are Chicagoans, and outside of fantasy football, will rip this guy a new icehole at any chance afforded us.  But we must maintain our bias - and we feel that Benson is going to generate some big ROI this year.  Like Palmer, the O-line is the only thing holding him back.  If this line can find some early chemistry, there is no reason that Benson should not pick up the momentum from last season and find some holes to run through given the talent level at QB and the three WR slots.  Rudi Johnson, Chris Perry, and Kenny Watson are three no-namers that produced strong YPC and total fantasy numbers with a healthy Palmer.  Benson is more talented than each of those guys - but not by much. 

Kenny Watson – Kenny Watson was a critical late season pickup in 2007 when Rudi Johnson was all gimped out.  We see no issue with handcuffing him to Cedric Benson with a late round pick.  We hear that Brian Leonard is the leading candidate to backup Benson, but he’s a slow white dude, so we remain suspicious.   
 
Brian Leonard – He is white, slow, and worthless.  Do not draft him as a handcuff.  If he is available on the waiver wire, do not pick him up until he rips two 100+ yard games off against teams not named the Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns.  Strike that, if you can afford the pickups, if Brian Leonard or any RB in the league is ever available and slated to start vs. the Chiefs or the Browns, go ahead and burn the pickup and bench your RB2 without a second thought.

Chad Johnson – We are seeing this guy ranked way too low by our competitors. Throw last season's numbers out the window, CJ should return to #1 or high #2 WR status in '09.  Palmer targeted CJ more (159 average) from 2004-2007 than any other QB targeted his receiver during that time.   CJ averaged 93 catches 1,379 yards and 8.25 TD over those four seasons.  It was odd that Ochocinco did not generate more trade interest in the off-season (barely even a 2^nd rounder in return was offered), but we suppose name changes and other bizarre behavior is enough to scare owners... which is why CJ only belongs in Cincinnati - where bizarre behavior seems to be as acceptable as teen pregnancies in the Palin household.  

Laveranues Coles -  He will assume Housh’s Z-flanker possession role and will be a strong  #3 WR with potential to return #2 WR numbers in ’09.  The list of QBs Coles has worked with thus far in his career is Battlefield Earth bad.  Coles could be in line for the finest fantasy season of his career.  We have him ranked in the top 25 WRs.  Housh was a top 10 fantasy WR in most formats in ’06 and ’07, and top 20 in ’05, so there is upside to Coles current billing.

Chris Henry – He’s a sleeper pick for the upcoming season.   He has all-pro talent with an all junior-high mentality.  However, based on numerous off-season reports and even a few sound-bites from Carson Palmer, Henry may actually be starting to realize that he is a grown man and there is life beyond whatever projects he grew up in.   His reps will largely be dictated by whether or not Ochocinco pulls his head out of his ass.  Henry boasts an unbelievable one TD for every 5.6 receptions since entering the league.   He has caught two TDs for every five games played – incredible given that he has only started a handful of games.  We only see Henry as breaking through substantially if an injury happens to either Coles or OchoCinco.  As the third option on a 4000 yard passing QB, he still could provide strong backup numbers.  If we end up with Coles or Ocho, we are making Henry one of the first three “handcuff” WRs off the board in about the 10-12th rounds.   If we don’t end up with either Cinci starter, but Henry is sitting there in the 14th-16th rounds, we’d grab him there, too. 

Jerome Simpson – Carson Palmer took a couple of opportunities to tout the efforts of the younger WRs over the summer and mentioned Simpson a couple times.  It would take at least two injuries to WRs for this guy to make a fantasy impact.  He’s a waiver wire guy.

Reggie Kelly – He finished 45th overall among TE in fantasy output.  Cincinnati has not had a fantasy worthy TE in many years.

Chase Coffman - He is a Rookie receiving TE who is not a good blocker, but has great hands and can catch the ball in tight coverage.  He's an enormous target and should be an excellent Red Zone threat for the Bengals... relatively speaking. 

Total 2008 Points = 78

Analysis:  They added Andre Smith in the draft which should help, and they have decent talent, they just really struggled offensively last year without Carson.  If Palmer plays healthy this year, they could really rebound.

Analysis:  Marvin Lewis and company should be back to their old tricks if Palmer comes back healthy.  Watch for them to move the ball with the pass and the running numbers should improve with his presence.

Incoming

WR Laveranues Coles

QB J.T. O'Sullivan

DT Tank Johnson

S Roy Williams

RB Brian Leonard

Outgoing

OT Stacy Andrews (Eagles)

QR Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills - wow do we hope Edwards goes down)

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Seahawks)

C Eric Ghiaciuc (Chiefs)

RB Chris Perry (Free Agent)

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest