These two tourism films tell it all about the Mistake by the Lake.

 
In 2008, the Browns finished 26th in rushing offense, 31st in passing offense, scored the least amount of points in the entire league besides the Bengals (with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center), and did not add any one player of real fantasy value in the off-season.  The Browns also have a new Head Coach in Eric Mangini after ousting Romeo Crennel, and a new Offensive Coordinator in Brian Daboll who has no experience at the position.  Combine all this disarray with the loss of their other viable offensive threat, TE Kellen Winslow, and you’re looking at…oh yes…a Cleveland Steamer.  

We can now file the 2007 season, when the Browns finished 12th in the league passing, under the category of Fluke.  What once looked like a promising situation at the QB position has quickly turned into a glob of well-traveled intestinal waste.  The 6’6” Derek Anderson that surprised the fantasy world with 29 TDs and almost 3,800 yards in 2007 came crashing back down to earth last year.  Brady Quinn is looking like he should have spent even more time in that “green room” on draft day. 

Eric Mangini is known for playing a conservative-style offense, playing not to lose a lead and maximizing the time the opposing team’s defense is on the field – or better put, he likes to run the ball.  The Jets ended up in the lower half of the league in passing attempts, yards, and TDs from ’06-’08, and that was with two QBs who were much more talented than either Anderson or Quinn (Pennington and Favre). 

We’d love to tell you that there is something you could hang your hat on this coming season in terms of the Browns passing game, but we can’t.  The trend of being 23rd or worse in the league in passing over the last decade (save for ‘07) will continue.  You have to go all the way back to 1991 to find a Browns team that finished in the top-10 in passing, ala side-armed bankrupt bandit, Bernie Kosar. 

If there was one bright spot that we could focus on for this astounding mound of porcelain-bound Brown-town offense, we’d tell you about it… but there isn’t one, so we’ll just give you the thick and thin of this runny Brown mess.

The focus of the Browns running game is Jamal Lewis, who will be turning 30-yrs old before the season starts.  Granted, he has rushed for over 1,000 yards in seven of the last eight seasons, but made NFL history for being one of the only RBs to rush for 1,000+ yards without a single 100-yd rushing game in a season.  Also, it seems the 2,600+ touches he has amassed over his career are beginning to take their toll as he has averaged 3.6 YPC or less in three of the past four years now. 

The Browns are light on credible backups.  Jerome Harrison has shown a lot of promise in limited carries but his size suggests that he is not much more than a 3rd down or change-of-pace RB.  The next guy would be 2009 6th-round draft pick James Davis, who is really just a smaller Jamal Lewis without as much talent.  Noah Herron was recently signed as well, but he’s terrible.

Browns fans should really be used to this sort of rushing impotence by now; they haven’t had a top-10 rushing attack since 1986 and haven’t had consecutive top-10 finishes since the 70’s.  This team will most likely be playing from behind for most of the season, so unless Mangini changes his philosophy of passing more in the first half to try and gain a lead, you could see a lot more of Harrison this year due to his versatility and pass-catching ability, and possibly more plays called for WR Josh Cribbs out of the backfield as well.

Brady Quinn – The Browns drafted Quinn in the 1st round of the 2007 draft with the expectation that he would become their starter immediately.  2005 6th round draft pick Derek Anderson had different plans.  He beat Quinn out for the job in ’07 just long enough to dupe the Browns  into paying him a like a top ten starter, then decided to give the job back to Quinn middle of last season.  Quinn got hurt three games into his big shot.  Whichever of these steam-cleaners wins the job is just barely worth a roster spot.
 
Derek Anderson – Mangina will probably award starting honors to Quinn to get in good with the Browns’ brass, but then Quinn will get injured or just suck hard enough for Anderson to get his shot.  These two should be drafted within about 10-12 picks of each other toward the tail end of the evening when the heartburn of pizza and twelve beers start to set in. 

Jamal Lewis – Jamal has the right amount of touches and is the right age to start breaking down for good this season.  This guy rushed for over 2,000 yards (2003) after tearing his ACL in 2001, so we have much love for this bruiser, but we also have much respect for biology and arithmetic.  Given the sad state of affairs under center, we have Jamal ranked just inside the top-35 RBs.  His upside is limited playing on this team (and considering his mileage).

Jerome Harrison – Mangini is comparing Harrison to Leon Washington.  He’s great coming out of the backfield on 3rd downs, has proven effective in picking up blitzes, and has a nice rushing average in limited carries.  Leon Washington managed to be fantasy relevant as a bye-week plug-in last season.  Given Lewis’s age, we would blow a late round flier on this kid.  Finally, Harrison is in the final year of his rookie deal, so he will be extra motivated to turn heads this season. 

James Davis – Davis is a big, strong rookie who runs hard and has good vision but like Lewis, is a two-down back that doesn’t have breakaway speed.  He could see some action this year spelling Lewis from time to time, and is another back you have to take a look at about half-way through your 11th beer on draft night.

Braylon Edwards – Edwards seems to be biding his time while until he perfects his version of Blue Steel.  He leads the league in dropped passes over the last four years.  That said, contract years do wonders for concentration levels, and it’s not like Edwards can get any worse (877 yards and three TDs in ’08).  After finishing 3rd overall (every fantasy format) in 2007, he has proven that he has the upside to warrant a higher draft pick than his ’08 season would suggest.  He just barely cracks our top-20 WRs. 

Josh Cribbs – Cribbs is one of those Devin Hester types where you’re not quite sure if he should simply concentrate on being a return specialist, or if he’s just so talented that you have to get the ball in his hands one way or another.  The Browns have him doing a little bit of everything, but not one single thing enough to make him fantasy draftable.

Brian Robiskie – Rookie Robiskie might have the inside edge to start opposite Edwards.  He has incredible hands, runs nice routes, and is a nice complement to Edwards’ game.  He could be the possession WR the Browns’ have lacked for a few years now.  His prospects for a good fantasy season this year are minute, but keep him in mind as a sleeper in the last couple of rounds.

Steve Heiden – Heiden is penciled in as the starter right now due to his blocking ability and experience in the Browns system, but Robert Royal could easily take that spot at some point.  Whoever ends up with the job, neither are fantasy viable and should be nowhere near your fantasy radar screen.

Total 2008 Points = 108

Analysis:  They had a decent year protecting their QB, but John St. Clair should hurt those numbers.  The running game was weak.  Joe Thomas will continue to grow, but this line is suspect.

Analysis:  Eric Mangini likes to run the football, but he leans more towards a balanced offense based on the numbers the Jets put up under his guide.  Brian Daboll has no experience at OC so the waters are a bit murky here.  Mangini preaches game plans to be “game-specific”, meaning, take what the defense will give you.

Incoming

HC Eric Mangini comes over from the New York Jets.

TE Robert Royal was signed.

OG Floyd Womack was signed and should start.

OT John St. Clair was signed.

RB Noah Herron was signed.

WR David Patten was signed.

Outgoing

QB Bruce Gradkowski was cut.

QB Ken Dorsey was cut.

TE Kellen Winslow was traded to the Buccaneers.

WR Joe Jurevicius was cut.

RB Jason Wright was signed by the Cardinals.

TE Darnell Dinkins was signed by the Saints

OT Kevin Shaffer was signed by the Bears.

OG Seth McKinney was signed by the Bills.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest