The Broncos were bull-dozed this past off-season as Mike Shanahan’s impressive 14-year tenure in Denver was brought to an end.  Owner Pat Bowlen needed a change, and he’ll be getting a large one with the inexperienced-beyond-his-years Josh McDaniels.  McDaniels is fresh from riding Bill Belichick’s coattails for the last three years.  His first order of business was to alienate franchise QB Jay Cutler.  Success!  McDaniels openly courted Matt Cassel (whose career he takes all of the credit for), and Cutler took offense.  If we were a prima-donna QB in the NFL, we’d have had the same reaction. 

Cutler threw tantrums until he was eventually traded to Chicago, and the fantasy fallout from this (and the coaching changes in Denver) will be expansive.  We know the WR corps will suffer with Kyle Orton in place of Cutler, but what else?  How about that vaunted rushing attack that flourished under Mike Shanahan?  Does the infamous blocking scheme that has enabled Denver RBs since Terrell Davis to be so successful leave with Shanny?  Does the RBBC approach leave with him as well?  Can Orton complete over 60% of his passes?  What does the future hold for McDaniels?

We’re not suggesting that McDaniels will be dead in Denver anytime soon.  We just wanted to look at Gabrielle Anwar for a couple of minutes.  She really is the “bee’s knees”. 

After looking for nine long years to find a franchise QB to replace Elway (10 playoff appearances- and five Super Bowls- two wins), they finally landed their franchise guy in Jay Cutler in 2006.  It took McDaniels exactly three months to run him out of town.   The end result was okay, though, as GM Xanders shrewdly turned a QB with one foot already out the door into two first round draft picks, a third rounder, and Kyle Orton.  Or was it?

According to Bears GM Jerry Angelo, "it's all about the quarterback" (a point he hammered home clearly with his re-financing of the Bears draft for the next two years).  We could op-ed this to death, but let's just say that he's not all wrong in that statement.  If you don't have a #1 ranked defense, without a game-changer under you are not winning a Super Bowl.  McDaniels's love affair with Cassel is as near-sighted as it gets and pretty typical of a 32 year old coach in over his head.  

What about Cutler?  Is he a game-changer? He is four years old in the league and already broke Denver’s single season passing yards record with 4526 yards in 2008.  One more season in Denver would have seen him slide into 2nd place in passing yards in franchise history…in only his 4th season (he only played five games in his rookie year).   Brian Griese is currently in third place.     It’s not easy to find a franchise QB.  Kyle Orton and his cadre of flavor-savers and neck-beards is probably not one.  They may have done well to turn Cutler into three high draft picks, but stud QBs are few and far between in this league.   We don’t necessarily love this trade for either team at the end of the day, especially not in 2009.

During three seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Patriots, McDaniels (Belichick) employed a healthy balance between the run and pass.  Well, that’s not totally accurate, as in ‘07, they got a little carried away passing the ball (56.5% of all plays) so they could crush the previous QB TD record.   But in 2006, the Pats passed on 527 of 1,026 plays or 51.3% of the time, and in 2008, they passed 534 times of 1,047 plays or 51% of the time.  Look for Denver to have a higher ratio of passes than that, perhaps anywhere from 55-58% pass-heavy, as they will be playing from behind a lot more than the Pats ever were in 2006 and 2008… and they won’t be a threat to any passing TD records, either.
 
Orton will struggle in a brand new (and highly complex) offense, and Marshall and Royal will, too.  According to Wes Welker of the Patriots offensive scheme:

"Back in '07, Randy and I were in our first year here, and I don't know about Randy, but I was worried about where the hell I was supposed to line up a lot of that season.  Now, with so many touches over the last two years, the offense is second nature to us. This is a complicated offense, and getting to know it takes time.”

Randy Moss had this to say:

"This offense is complicated. To be point blank, they don't want dummies in this offense. You have to be somewhat intelligent to be able to go ahead and run this offense because one play you could be here; the next play you could be there. You have to be versatile to be able to change positions and be good."

Yes, they both still rolled, but Tom Brady was already well-versed in the system; that, and he’s the best QB in the game.  Orton has a woman-arm.

As far as their running game, McDaniels will be installing a new offensive scheme, which also means a new blocking scheme.  No one has gotten production out of RBs like Shanny over the past 14 years, so while the RBBC may be a thing of the past as Shanny exits, so too could be their stellar team rushing average.

###### Insert Denver Rushing Chart ######

This team should struggle across the board.  We are bumping the receiving corps down a bunch.  Knowshown Moreno can still be a guy that is worth taking a chance on early given Denver’s long success running the ball, but again, that had a lot to do with the scheme and little to do with the RB talent, so it’s tough to accurately predict.  It’s worth noting that the only other team that has had a lot of success with third-rate talent in the NFL is the New England Patriots over the last couple of years. 

Kyle Orton - He has a weak arm with terrible accuracy, and will struggle in a brand new complex offensive scheme.  Orton threw for 2,972 yards and 18 TDs last season with what amounts to one of the worst receiving corps in the league (Chicago).  He’ll have better receivers this year, but the new system and surroundings will off-set that upgrade.  He’s a bright guy, so if he can master a portion of the playbook, maybe he can maintain last year’s TD total and increase his yards a bit.  Also, despite Brandon Marshall’s surly behavior in the off-season, he actually went out of his way to pay Orton a compliment.  We have him ranked just inside the top-25 QBs.

Chris Simms – He has a stronger arm than Orton, but lacks mobility and NFL experience.  He has five more INTs than TDs in his career, and spent three of his four years in the league warming the bench.  He’s not a viable backup – fantasy or otherwise - and should not be drafted in leagues with fewer than 16 teams.  If Orton gets injured and he rolls for three TDs two weeks in a row, maybe blow a pickup on him, but then make sure not to whine too loudly when you start him and he drops a 150-yard, zero TD, two INT performance on your chin.  

Knowshon Moreno – He is a gifted runner and will be starting by Week one.  He doesn’t have mind-blowing speed, but his instincts are the best this draft class had to offer, and we believe Denver scored a big win with this guy.  Denver has produced at the RB position no matter what the talent level, although that was in Shanny’s chop-block scheme.  Knowshon is the most talented RB in Denver since Clinton Portis.  The Broncos signed seemingly every free agent RB available in the off-season (Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, JJ Arrington), but have since cut Arrington, and while the RBBC seems to be alive and kicking in a post-Shanny Denver world, we see Knowshown getting the bulk of the carries and producing top-20 RB numbers.
 
Correll Buckhalter - He could be a decent handcuff to Moreno, but has been hugely injury prone his entire career.  He missed all of 2002 with an ACL, as well as 2004 and 2005 with a torn patellar tendon.  His numbers are decent at 4.5 YPC on 476 carries, with 18 TDs and 10.9 YPR on 85 receptions.  He’s on the wrong side of 30, but has the mileage of a 23 year old, so age isn’t really his problem; his gimpy knees are.  Draft him in one of the last rounds as insurance to Moreno.  We have him inside the top 65 RBs.  
 
Lamont Jordan – Oakland had high expectations for Lamont after his impressive numbers as Curtis Martin’s backup in New York, but he never lived up to them and has had only one decent year (2005) as a full-time RB.  He seems to add value to an NFL team as long as his carries are kept to around 100 total.  He is fantasy waiver-wire fodder this season.

Brandon Marshall – A DUI and a pending court date for a multitude of domestic battery charges and he doesn’t understand why the Broncos aren’t offering him a contract extension.  Hmmm.  He had no problems producing WR1 numbers with Jay Cutler targeting him an average of 176 times over the last two seasons, but Kyle Orton and coaching changes are enough to make us hedge a little on him.  He is in a contract year, though.  We have him ranked just inside the top 20 WRs, but trade talks persist, so this is likely to change.  Pay close attention to the Newsbreakers and/or the Daily Pill for any updates to this situation.

Eddie Royal – He was a nice surprise in ’08, but the 2nd option on a team led by QB Kyle Orton has us lukewarm on his ’09 prospects.  Royal has sticky hands and caught most everything within his reach as a rookie.  He will likely be used similarly to Welker’s role on the Patriots in McDaniels scheme.  It’s hard to envision the Broncos attempting another 620 passes (2008) this season with Kyle Orton under center.  We have him ranked inside the top 35 WRs, but we'll be paying close attention to how Orton progresses in McDaniels highly complex scheme. 

Jabar Gaffney – He has played in McDaniels’ system three straight years now, and that’s about the best compliment we can pay him.  He has never produced fantasy-worthy numbers and will be the 3rd option on an offense that should struggle.  Catchy on the waiver-wire Jar-Jar.

Tony Scheffler - He will not get the opportunity he has had in the past playing in McDaniels’ scheme that features so many three and four receiver sets.  Cassel threw passes with no TE lined up 23.2% of the time last season compared to 19.65% for Cutler.  Cutler threw in two-TE sets 17% of the passing downs vs. Cassel only 9.4% of the time.  He is yet another guy that “doesn’t fit” into the new coach’s scheme, and Daniel Graham, who played in New England in 2006 is familiar with it.  The Broncos also spent a 2nd round pick on North Carolina’s Richard Quinn.  We have him ranked as a backup just inside the top 20 TEs.

Total 2008 Points = 114

Analysis:  The Denver Broncos have been beating teams up in the run game for years.  There blocking schemes seem to work wonders for any RB.  Shanahan leaving will likely impact this.  3 starters will be playing for contracts, so that should help.  Expect the sack numbers to rise with the departure of Jay Cutler. 

Analysis:  Josh McDaniels comes over from New England and shook things up right away by chasing Jay Cutler out of town.  He runs a West Coast derivative that features a lot of 3 and 4 wides.  He will look to run the ball and play it safe in the passing game.  OC Mike McCoy has no history, so expect McDaniels to be the primary offensive game planner.

Incoming

HC Josh McDaniels comes over from the New England Patriots.

RB Corell Buckhalter was signed.

WR Jabar Gaffney was signed.

RB J.J. Arrington was signed.

RB Lamont Jordan was signed.

QB Chris Sims was signed.

QB Kyle Orton was acquired in a trade with the Chicago Bears

OT Brandon Gorin was signed.

Outgoing

C Tom Nalen retired.

TE Chad Mustard retired.

WR Cliff Russell was cut.

RB Anthony Aldridge was cut.

TE Nate Jackson was cut.

OT Eric Pears has signed on with the Raiders.

RB Cory Boyd was cut.

QB Jay Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears.

QB Patrick Ramsey has signed on with the Titans.

QB Darrell Hackney was cut.

FB Andrew Pinnock was cut

RB Selvin Young was cut.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest