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The Houston Texans’ “lone-star“ has been rising for the last few years.  Gary Kubiak was brought into Houston three seasons ago to move a fledgling expansion team out of the cellar of the league.  Success.  Most every move he and GM Rick Smith (hired at Kubiak's suggestion) have made has been pure gold.  Kubiak is finally getting some recognition for something besides holding John Elway’s jock-strap for his nine-year NFL QB career.  Over this time, they have turned around a 2-14 (2005) Texan team to an 8-8 team on the brink of the playoffs.  More importantly, they have turned a team that used to boast just one fantasy starter (Andre Johnson) into a team that generates no fewer than five (including their kicker Kris Brown) on a week-to-week basis.  Through a healthy mix of solid drafting and key free agent acquisitions, the Texans are firing on all cylinders.

With not so much as a trace of talent at the RB position on staff, Gary Kubiak made the unpopular and ballsy decision in 2006 to draft Mario Williams over the “upside”-laden Reggie Bush.   Seventeen Bush knee surgeries and a Williams 8th ranking in sacks (2008) later, Kubiak is a legend in at least our eyes (we had Bush tabbed as a bust given his inability to rush effectively in-between tackles).  Credit must be given to Kubiak’s time in Denver for having that type of gumption; he and Mike Shanahan made it work with pretty much any RB that cycled through Mile High.  Anyways, Kubiak also walked away from that same ’06 draft with two other franchise cornerstones in LB DeMeco Ryans and Pro-Bowl TE Owen Daniels. 

On the free agent front,  Kubiak and Smith have had an equally sharp eye for talent bringing in starting WR Kevin Walter (2006) and QB Matt Schaub (2007).   While neither is going to be starting in the Pro Bowl anytime soon, they are fantasy upgrades over their predecessors (David Carr, Jar-Jar-bar Gaffney, and Corey Bradford). 

The Texan passing game has improved leaps and bounds over the last two years going from (total yards) 27th in 2006 to  11th in 2007,  and finally 4th last season.  The team passed 555 (ranked 7th in pass attempts) of 987 plays or 56.2% of their plays which was just about even with 2007’s split.  It is interesting to note that Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan will be officially taking over play-calling duties from Kubiak for 2009.  Shanahan called the plays in a 2008 week 17 win against Chicago and for however mundane that may sound, check this stat:  He called a number of fade patterns to better utilize Andre Johnson’s size in “and goal” downs.  The team entered week 17 having the worst red-zone offense in the league but scored three red-zone TDs (one on a AJ fade!) and a total of 31 points in the win over the Bears.   Johnson can be used in so many ways down near the goal-line and it’s looking like the younger Shanahan will be pursuing every avenue to do so.

The ground game has improved only recently with their thieving of Steve Slaton in the third round of the 2008 draft.  Slaton fell on draft boards due to a poor Combine showing, questions about his size and durability, and his inability to follow-up on his mercurial sophomore year numbers in college.  It didn’t help his case that he decided to leave school after his junior year, either.   With very little changing on the offensive line between 2007 and 2008, Slaton improved every facet (yards, TDs, YPC, rush attempts) of the Texan ground game on his way to 1282 rush yards on 268 carries (4.8 YPC) and nine TDs.  He also showcased his receiving abilities with 50 catches for 377 yards and a score. 

There are a few issues to keep in mind as you look at the Texans’ upcoming fantasy season.

1) Their schedule is much more forbidding this year than it was last year (see our Strength-of-Schedule) with potential fantasy play-off matches vs. Seattle (week 14), St. Louis (week 15), and        Miami (week 16).  

2)Young Shanahan managed an even split in the one game he called week 17 against the Bears in 2008  even after going down 10-0 early in the game.  He called 36 runs and 36 passes.  We’re not prepared to forecast his tendencies off of one game, but he could go a bit more conservative, especially if the ground game continues to improve – and moreover to keep Schaub healthy.

3)Their defense improves with the addition of Cardinals DE Antonio Smith and added LB depth with former pro-bowler Cato June. 

Matt Schaub –He is about three missed games from locking up the nickname “Glass Joe” which we have been saving for him.  His pro-rated stats over 16 games last season come out to 4426 yards and about 22 total TDs which is good for an 8th ranking in a basic fantasy scoring format (6 pt TDs and 1 pt per 20 yards).  There is risk with this guy.  We are ranking him in the top twelve QBs, and he has the upside to provide far greater returns than that.

Steve Slaton – He is a  RB1 in all formats.  The only concern on this guy, as voiced by his head coach, is his smallish stature.   While he was catching everything in sight and hugely effective running the ball with his 4.8 YPC average, he struggled in short yardage.  Slaton showed up to camp with almost ten pounds of added bulk and had this to say,  "I had a little problem with third-and-short, and that’ll hopefully help me move the pile a little bit more".   We are high on every key player in the entire Texans’ offense and Slaton should be the first one of ‘em selected in your draft.  

Chris Brown – If he was a more important fantasy guy and white, we would have already doled out the “Glass Joe” nickname to this cat.  He gets injured more often than Elijah Price; he is decidedly “breakable”.   When he plays he is able to produce (4.3 YPC over his injury-laden career).  He is incapable of carrying a full load, but he wouldn’t be a terrible handcuff in the last round of the draft, assuming you don’t have more pressing needs to address. 

Andre Johnson - He is the most gifted all-around WR in the league and one of the best teammates a franchise could hope for.  He’ll finish his career as a Texan.  If Schaub can ever get it together to stay healthy and on the field for 16 games, ‘Dre will lead the league in every fantasy football format.  He was able to stay productive with Sage Rosenfels on the field last season, but Dan Orlovsky could struggle if Schaub goes down again in a new offense; something to keep in mind as you evaluate Andre against guys like Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Randy Moss.  It’s worth the risk, though.  We are going back and forth with him as the 2nd or 3rd WR overall.  Check his profile page right before your draft.   
 
Kevin Walter - Must be nice playing opposite a beast like Andre Johnson.  Kevin Walter has talent, but not top 20 fantasy WR talent like his numbers in 2008 suggest.  Doesn’t matter, though, he’s playing opposite ‘Dre.  Expect similar numbers out of Walter as teams continue to double team Johnson and also worry about Daniels and Slaton.  Because of his limited upside, we can’t rank him close to where he finished last season.  He is a fantasy starter in 12 or more man leagues.  We have him ranked right around the top 35 WRs.

Andre Davis – He is one of the few advisable WR handcuffs in the league.  He stepped in for ‘Dre quite admirably in 2007 catching 23 balls for 441 yards and three TDs in a seven game stretch.  He does not hold value beyond ‘Dre going down, so if you have the roster space and are sitting on ‘Dre as your #1 WR, take a flier on this guy in the last round and leave him buried on your roster and drop him if anyone better surfaces post draft.

Owen Daniels – He enters his fourth year in the league and should be considered as a starting TE in any format.  His contract situation is interesting.  He turned down a contract offer that would have made him the 2nd richest TE in the league – likely due to the amount of guaranteed dollars in the deal.  He has signed a one year tender of $2.792 million, and negotiations are ongoing.  The Texans burned  4th and 5th round picks on TEs (Anthony Hill and James Casey) in anticipation of this becoming a larger problem.   We suppose if no deal is struck, Daniels will have added motivated for his ’09 campaign. The only trend with this guy that is bothering us is that his TD count has decreased in each of his three seasons.  We aren’t sweating it too much as his targets have increased each year and the TDs should come if Schaub can stay healthy.   With Andre Johnson commanding so much attention, Daniels should have a great year.  You should target Daniels within the  top seven TEs and we are chewing on bumping him up from that.

Total 2008 Points = 124

Analysis:  Returning five starters who all played 16 games last year is a large bonus.  They slipped in the pass block game last year but made up for it in the rushing attack.  Pitts and Brown are thoroughbreds headed for Pro Bowls eventually.  Two members playing for contracts should help as well.  This is a very good unit on the rise.

Analysis:  Gary Kubiak spent 11 years (1995 -2005)in Denver as the Offensive Coordinator and guru of the dominant running attack.  He brought with him Alex Gibbs who was the Assistant Head/Offensive Line Coach in Denver from 1995 to 2003 to fill this same role and now he has hired Mike Shanahan’s son to run his game plan every Sunday.  Houston will be among the most productive fantasy football offenses on the ground and in the air.

Incoming

RB Clifton Dawson

FB Boomer Grigsby

QB Dan Orlovsky

S John Busing

DT Shaun Cody

LB Buster Davis

G Adrian Jones

LB Cato June

DE Antonio Smith

Outgoing

S C.C. Brown (N.Y. Giants)

CB Demarcus Faggins

RB Ahman Green

LB Morlon Greenwood

C Bryan Pittman

QB Sage Rosenfels

OT Ephraim Salaam

RB Darius Walker

DE Anthony Weaver

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest