The big changes in Indy’s off-season have nothing to do with North Philly’s newest  slumlord exiting stage left, but instead with coaching staff changes and their ground game.   Tony Dungy opted for his first retirement and the QBs coach from Tampa, Jim Caldwell, was hired in his place.  The Colts had an immediate need of addressing their weak 31st ranked ground game and they did so with a 1st round selection of UConn’s Donald Brown.   The departure of Marvin Harrison should actually translate as a positive insofar as Manning should find some motivation in proving that his career was less defined by Marv vs. the other way around.  It also gives Anthony Gonzalez an opportunity to step into the full-time #2 WR slot and show why the Colts burned a first rounder on him in 2007.  All in all, the Colts quietly made enough changes to improve their standing in the fantasy football community and should improve in all areas on offense from ‘08.  

... that Marvin is a slumlord?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3827402

Can we get some consensus on the following statement:  Anyone who refers to themselves as the “Talented Mr. Roto” and uses words like “studliness” in their analysis should be beaten mercilessly.  Let us know.

Let’s take a closer look at the Colts draft.   UConn’s Donald Brown was a no-brainer pick where they got him.  He is an explosive runner and the led the nation in rushing in 2008 with 2,083 yards albeit at a smaller program (UConn is not known for churning out NFL studs).   He is effective between the tackles and has the ability to turn the corner with decent speed clocking the 40 yard dash in 4.51 seconds.  He’s going to need to grow a pair at the next level and start blocking better and this is perhaps the only thing that could limit his carries in ’09.  He is a definite upgrade over Addai, though.  Austin Collie should emerge as the third receiver on the team and could make an immediate impact.  He finished his college career at BYU going for 11 straight 100+ yard games.  

On defense, notable additions include USC’s  DT Fili Moala (2nd round) who should help shore up Indy’s 24th ranked rush defense as should Michigan’s DT Terrance Taylor (4th round) who is a project with questionable work ethic but is considered an excellent run stuffer.   All told, the Colts addressed their needs nicely with the draft while remaining largely silent in the free agent game.   They were 12-4 last season and did not lose any players critical to their success; Marvelous was washed up and the $6 million they saved will serve them in better ways. 

Look for new coach Jim Caldwell and rookie Offensive Coordinator Clyde Christensen to give Manning the same flexibility he has had throughout his career to constantly audible and mess with opposing defense’s minds.   Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown are the best candidates to break out and return the highest ROI on draft day. 

You will have to draft Manning within the first three QBs and it’s going to be worth it to do so.  There is not a more consistent fantasy QB in the history of the NFL.

Peyton Manning – It’s tempting to pigeon-hole Manning as being past his prime, but not accurate.  While his numbers have trended downward in passing yards , total TDs, and yard per attempt over the last three seasons, those numbers correspond directly with the eroding skill set of his former #1 WR Marvin Harrison.  His accuracy has actually slightly increased over the same timeframe, though, and we’re confident that he will continue to his dominance well into his 30’s.   The Colts attempted the largest percentage of pass plays in ‘08 (61.3% of total plays called) since Manning joined the franchise.   Their ineffective RBBC (Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai) played a large part in that discrepancy and they addressed this deficiency with their  1st round pick by selecting UConn’s Donald Brown.   Harrison is gone and Anthony Gonzalez is the official #2 WR opposite Reggie Wayne.   The Colts have an easy go of it vs. pass defenses this season ranking 4th on our Strength of Schedule.  Manning is as consistent as they come and should still be drafted among the first three QBs.

Jim Sorgi – This guy has Gary Kubiak written all over his career.  We haven’t seen enough of this guy to assess whether or not he is a viable handcuff for Peyton Manning; and we probably won’t as Manning has yet to miss a game in his career.  He’s only tossed one INT in 156 career attempts while throwing six TDs!  It’s a start.  He’s waiver wire fodder unless you land Manning and have absolutely no interest in what’s left on the board.

Donald Brown - He should emerge as the #1 RB this season for the Colts.  He might already be a better back than Addai who looks to be more a product of the system than anything else.  He will split carries to start the season but, as Addai wears down, could be in for a full load.  He toted the ball 367 times for over 2,000 yards and 18 TDs for UConn in ’08 proving he is capable of full-time duty.  However, his skills catching balls out of the backfield are pedestrian at best.  We have him ranked just inside the top 35 RBs. 

Joseph Addai -  Had minor off-season knee surgery and is coming off his worst season as a pro.   He will be splitting carries with rookie 1st round draft pick Donald Brown.  While the Colts don’t figure to call such a hefty dose of passing attempts (61.3% of total plays called) again in ‘09, the RBBC situation is enough to reckon Addai to fantasy backup RB status and really should be probably the handcuff to Donald Brown.   He barely cracks our top 40 RB rankings.

Reggie Wayne – ’08 was an off year for the entire Colt offense, relatively speaking, and Wayne was not spared as he followed up his career-best numbers in 2007 (1,510 yards and 10 TDs) with numbers that weren’t worthy of #1 fantasy WR status (1,145 yards and six TDs).  Anthony Gonzalez should be able to step up in his 3rd season and take some of the attention away from Wayne.  The Colts have a weak schedule vs. the pass this year (4th ranking on our Strength of Schedule), so we like him to rebound nicely.  Wayne is a top ten fantasy WR.  
  
Anthony Gonzalez - He improved on his rookie season of 37 catches and 576 yards going for 57 catches 664 yards, but gave up a lot of targets to the lingering Marvin Harrison last season.  He is a break-out candidate for ’09 (having nothing to do with the fact that he enters his third year).   He was the fourth receiving option last season and this year he will battle TE Dallas Clark to be the 2nd.

Dallas Clark – He is coming off career highs in targets, receptions, and yards in ‘08.  His TDs were down from his ’07 campaign but that has more to do with the Colts overall offensive struggles.  He is a top five fantasy TE and will benefit greatly from Marvin Harrison’s departure.  His best years are in front of him.  He is the unequivocal #4 ranked TE this season.

Total 2008 Points = 103

Analysis:  Indy has done a supreme job historically of building chemistry in the trenches and we’re also sure Peyton Manning has a lot to do with the low turnover of this unit.   We never doubted for a second that Polian wouldn’t lock up Saturday for the rest of his career as he remains the lynch pin of this line.  This all said, while we hold the weak Indy RBBC largely responsible for the poor rushing numbers in ’08, this line deserves scorn for it as well. 

Analysis:  Jim Caldwell was a QB coach so he could be more prone to unleash vs. Dungy typically conservative approach to a game-plan.   Clyde Christensen slides over from WR coach to man the O-coordinator spot for the first time in his career. The Colts passed more than normal last year and look for that to balance out a bit as first rounder Donald Brown should provide more pep than Dominic Rhodes did. 

Incoming

Jim Caldwell moves from Offensive Coordinator to Head Coach

G Brandon Barnes

LB Adam Seward

Outgoing

HC Tony Dungy stepped down from his head coaching job.  Let’s see how much he mattered.

LB Buster Davis 

RB Clifton Dawson 

CB Keiwan Ratliff

DT Darrell Reid 

RB Dominick Rhodes 

P Hunter Smith

WR Marvin Harrison

P Mike Dragosavich

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest