What could Paris Hilton and the Jacksonville Jaguars possibly have in common - besides both having train-wreck seasons in 2008?  Probably not much, unless any of the Jags have herpes.  Watching season one of Paris’s “My New BFF”, we hear, was not unlike having teeth pulled while being water-boarded with electrodes attached to your taint.   The Jaguars must have been feeling similar pain and frustration after having lost five of their offensive linemen (including three starters) and flipping an 11-5 record in ’07 to 5-11 in ‘08.  Paris, on the other hand, well…





Now extrapolate that 24 second clip over 10 to 12 half-hour episodes in which she is auditioning people to be her “new bff”.   Do you know what “BFF” stands for?  We didn’t either so we googled it.  It stands for “best friend forever”.   You seeing red, too?

At any rate, it is now easier to understand what Jag nation was feeling last season going from a team found on many “expert’s” Super Bowl contender lists, to the cellar.  

Starters G Vince Manuwai and G Maurice Williams were lost for the entire season in the middle of the first quarter of week one.  C Brad Meester missed six games, back-up  OT Richard Collier was shot 14 times ending his career, and then G Chris Naeole who they signed mid-season was injured in pre-game warm-ups before playing a down.    The Jags also lost a few key ingredients on defense in the 2007-2008 off-season:

    • Traded starter DT Marcus Stroud to Buffalo for draft picks,
    • Lost S Sammy Knight to free agency (Giants)
    • Lost DE Bobby McCray to free agency (Saints)

They replaced these losses through the 2008 draft, which clearly did not work out as they dropped from the 7th (2007) to the 17th ranked defense last year.   On offense, the holes were obviously not as wide and their team rushing average slipped from 4.6 YPC in ’07 (ranked 3rd) to 4.2 YPC in ’08 (ranked 14th). 
 
David Garrard’s stat line was the only benefactor of the collective team struggles as he registered career highs in attempts and yards as they played most of the season from behind.  MJD was given a much larger percentage of the load in 2008 as the team began to move away from Fred Taylor, which translated to 52 more touches (30 carries) but on significantly less team rushing attempts.

The Jags were mindful of their problems and went out and inked aging OT Tra Thomas to a free agent deal this past off-season.  He’s old and isn’t a sure bet to start given the impressive camps that 2009 rookie selections OT Eugene Monroe and OT Eben Britton are experiencing.  Both rookies are known for the pass-blocking and less for their run-blocking, however with OGs Maurice Williams and Vincent Manuwai back from injury, the running game will improve.

The Jags oddly did not make many moves on the defensive of the ball.  They selected Temple DT Terrance Knighton in the 3rd round but he is considered to be a project.  No major free-agent signings means this defense could struggle again, and MJD, Holt, and Garrard owners should be loving that.

David Garrard – The Jags played from behind for much of last season as they lost three starting and two backup offensive linemen.  This explains away the huge spike in pass attempts (up 68 from 2007) and his career-best passing yards by over 1,000 yards (3,620 total for 10th overall).    Garrard was the 9th ranked fantasy QB (basic format) in '08 but the Jags will attempt to get back to groundin' and poundin' the football.  Garrard did toss 18 TDs on only 325 attempts in '07 (was injured four games), and he is a mobile QB running for 507 yards and three TDs over the last two seasons.  This defense could struggle again in the absence of any decent free agent acquisitions.  The addition of Torry Holt is perhaps the biggest reason to be bullish on Garrard.  He has never had a decent WR to play catch with.

Maurice Jones-Drew – If he can make the successful transition from part-time to full-time guy he will lead the league in fantasy output for RBs.  The Torry Holt addition finally gives Garrard a legitimate target after having long suffered with one of the weakest WR corps in the league.  Here's a stat for you to chew on - the Jags lost three starting offensive linemen to injury in 2008, attempted 96 fewer carries than in 2007 (because they were constantly playing from behind) and MJD still punched in 14 total TDs and registered 1,389 total yards....splitting carries with Fred Taylor.  MJD will get a larger percentage of carries with only two inexperienced RBs behind him on the depth chart.   If their defense can keep games closer, he is looking at a 340-350 touch season.  243 touches was his previous high.   Decent fantasy playoff matchups vs. the Dolphins, Colts, and Pats in weeks 14, 15, 16 respectively. 

Rashad Jennings – He is projected to be a 7th round steal.  He's a big bruiser RB who is coming out of a very obscure college program (Liberty Flames?).   He will probably be MJD’s primary backup and could produce a nice return should anything happen to him.

Chauncey Washington – He holds the USC record for most academic ineligible seasons by a RB.  From that alone, we can deduce that he probably won’t be in the league much longer.  Morons don’t seem to have much of a shelf life in the NFL.   His 2.3 YPC on four carries does reveal some potential – at least more than you have.

Torry Holt – We think most people are making the mistake of writing him off.  He should be good for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs this season.  Rams' Marc Bulger is now one of the worst QB in the league and Holt has still been able to produce with him over the last two seasons.  If Matt Jones can average 63.41 yards per game in the Jags' offense  in '08 which is 1,014 over 16 games, we feel we are being conservative with our estimates.  Holt, at 33 years old, is much more capable than a Matt Jones.  Holt has missed two games in his 10 year career.

Mike Walker – He was drafted in the third round in ’07 but was injured in camps and did not play.  He was injured again in ’08 and used sparingly.   The Jags basically dump the poo-stained WR corps they have employed for the last three seasons and Walker finds himself in a starting role opposite Holt.  Now he just has to stay healthy.  This guy has some sleeper potential. 

Marcedes Lewis – He won’t see enough looks to warrant much more than weak backup TE status.  He has improved his yards, receptions, and YPC average in each of his first three seasons in the league, though.  The Jags just won’t pass as much in ’09.

Total 2008 Points = 90

Analysis:  Jacksonville had a pretty rough go of it last year with the OL and they still posted respectable numbers in the running game,, finishing 18th overall in rushing attempts and averaging 4.2 per.  They’re top backup lineman Richard Collier was shot in early September and they lost both starters Vincent Manuwai and Maurice Williams to injury in week 1.  Tough to pick up the pieces when that happens, but they came out with fight in ‘em every Sunday and posted decent numbers.  As far as pass protection, they ranked 23 in the league in percentage for sacks per attempt. 

Analysis:  Dirk Diggler, I mean Koetter, arrived on the scene in Jacksonville fresh from being dumped by his wife for Dennis Erickson (someone apparently has too much time on their hands).  Seriously, though, Koetter was more or less driven out of Tempe and quickly landed a gig with the Jags.  The Jags enjoyed an 11-5 season in 2007 pounding the ball only to completely implode in 2008 due to losing, count ‘em, FIVE offensive linemen - including three starters - to injury.  Starters G Vince Manuwai and G Maurice Williams were lost for the entire season, C Brad Meester misses six games, back-up  Tackle Richard Collier was shot 14 times ending his career, and then G Chris Naeole who they signed mid-season was injured in pre-game warm-ups before playing a down.    

Incoming

OT Tra Thomas was signed in the off season.  This helps provide some much needed help for the decimated line.  Let’s see what the aging veteran has left. 

Outgoing

WR Matt Jones was cut based on his fascination with altered states of mind.

RB Fred Taylor was cut.  This helps clear the way for the explosive young back MJD.

WR Jerry Porter was cut.  We were not even aware he was in Jacksonville, what a pathetic finish to a disappointing career.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest