It’s one thing to completely overhaul a franchise from top to bottom in the off-season.  It’s entirely another to have it result in a division title and 11-5 record.  We aren’t going to do a full re-hash of all the off-season moves that were made leading up to the ’08 season.  They are nicely defined in this wiki page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Miami_Dolphins_season
 
Big Tuna is a genius.  Highlights from the above link include: 
    • Securing a verbal commitment from 1st overall OT Jake Long BEFORE the draft started to avoid a holdout.  
    • Inking the only decent QB on the market before other serious suitors got involved.
    • Assuming a fake organizational title so he could secure permission to hire Jeff Ireland. 
 
It’s not that Jeff Ireland was integral to the ‘Fins success – he wasn’t – but the move just wreaks of Big Tuna - that sly bastard.   No one moves with his precision, or extracts such high results out of marginal players like him.   He has many detractors who claim that he has no loyalty and doesn’t stick around long enough to see things through.  Scoreboard, pal.   He is among the best football minds in the history of the game.  Tuna should strongly consider pulling another one of his disappearing acts, though, for 2008 will be a tough act to follow.  If Tuna and co. don’t have some more tricks up there sleeve, the Dolphin fan-base could be in for a letdown.   The Swiss cheese schedule is gone for 2009, they don’t have 11-5 talent, and won’t be taking anyone by surprise with the “wildcat” formation.

After being dumped by the Jets in favor of Favre, Pennington received a half dozen calls, among which was one from his old coach who made him the 18th overall pick in 2000.   The ‘Fins QB situation has been a punch-line since Marino retired in 1999 and Parcells wasn’t about to make a go of it with Cleo “Ima” Lemon.   He swiftly moved to sign Pennington to a very fair two year deal for $7.9 million.  Pennington chose to reunite with Parcells over pursuing other potential offers (Vikings) from franchises that appeared to be in much better shape.   Pennington’s loyalty to Tuna paid huge dividends as he turned in one of the finest seasons (NFL MVP Runner-up) of his career and was one of the keys to Dolphin success last season.  

It’s a close 2nd to the Super Bowl Shuffle. 

The “wildcat” formation took team’s by surprise (hello, Patriots week three), but well-coached teams like the Pats weren’t fooled a second time (week 12 in LandShark Stadium) and they ended up getting a little payback with a final score of 48-28.  Belichick for sure had his penis measuring tape out during that one.  This is will be a trend going forward...not the penis measuring, but that teams have had a full off-season to study and prepare to defend the “wildcat” formation.  
 
The Dolphins finished last season 11th overall in rushing (118.6 yard per game) and made those yards count by finishing 9th in rushing TDs with 18 total.  They were tied for 14th in YPC at 4.2 and that number is worse than it looks.  In order for the “wildcat” formation to be effective, you need to be able to run the ball effectively out of a basic formation.   When you look inside the numbers, leading RB Ronnie Brown had 304 rushing yards for a 5.33 YPC and scored five TDs in the Wildcat, and rushed for 612 yards on a 3.90 YPC and scored five TD in a base formation. The “wIldcat” is a great bonus but you need be able to run the ball out of a basic formation which the team did not do well last year.   Bill Parcells and Tony Sporano thought it was a big deal, too, and fired offensive line coach Mike Maser.  The O-line should be improved this season.   Jake Grove over Samson Satele is a huge upgrade center. OG Donald Thomas missed 15 games with a season ending foot injury and will be back, but will miss the start of training camp with a torn pectoral muscle.   Jake Long enters his 2nd year and will continue to improve.  Better coaching and off-season moves should translate favorably to the Miami rushing attack.

The Dolphins had the easiest schedule in the league last season.  They beat two winning teams (Patriots and Jets) and their other nine wins came against teams with a combined record of 49 wins and 94 losses.  From a fantasy perspective, they faced three of the four worst rush defenses (Oakland, KC, and St. Louis).  In those three games they had 100 carries for 539 yards or 179.66 rushing yards per game.   If you remove those three games, the ‘Fins are looking at 348 carries for 1,358 yards and a 3.9 YPC average. 

Pennington likes to spread the love around the pass catching corps in Miami.  The RBs combined for over 740 yards in the air, TEs for over 900 yards, and the three top WRs contributed over 1,900 yards.  Expect more of the same from the passing game due to the lack of stars.  

Chad Pennington –He is the most accurate passer in NFL history with a career completion average of 66%.  He has been accused for being injury-prone and having a noodle arm throughout his career (both valid).   He shook both issues in ’08 ranking tied for 6th (with Romo and Warner) in YPA at 7.7 yards and started in all 16 games.   Pennington is one of the stronger backup fantasy QBs.  He enters a contract year and is not in the ‘Fins future plans.  Henne will be given reps in the pre-season but won’t beat Pennington out for the gig this year.   We, like the rest of the world are showing no love to Pennington in our rankings.  He is a backup just inside our top 20 QBs.

Chad Henne – He is the future for Miami under center and will be given an opportunity to compete with Pennington.  He won’t win and we can’t advocate him as a handcuff due to his inexperience and the team’s weak pass catching options.

Ronnie Brown – He enters a contract year and will be a sure bet to “show up to camp in the best shape of his career”.  Anyone with the presence of mind to sell high on him in ‘08 were most likely well rewarded as anything you got in return would have bested  the one TD he posted in his final seven games.  Brown has proven that he is talented in limited duty but incapable of carrying a full load – and this goes back to his days at Auburn splitting carries with another injury-prone NFL pussbag, Cadillac Williams. Contract years bring out the best in NFL stars.  This would be the year to draft Brown as a low end RB2 or among the first fantasy backup RBs. 
 
Ricky Williams - He is a very nice complement to Ronnie Brown.  Add the two together (salaries and all) and you have a rock solid 2,048 total yards and 15 TDs costing you roughly $7 milllion per year.  Not bad.  Given his yearlong foray into being a marijuana barista or whatever he was doing in 2004, he has low mileage on his legs for a 32-year old.  This should be his last season in Miami and he will be auditioning for his next contract on every carry.  He is a must-handcuff with Ronnie Brown.

Ted Ginn Jr –He started slow but put up 661 yards and two TDs over the last 10 games in ‘08.  We can’t quite put him in the sleeper bucket yet, as we are only projecting him to be a backup WR at this point.  Pennington just doesn’t have the arm to take advantage of Ginn’s game, so he has one more year before we can make him a starter.  We expect similar yards, and if he can even double his TDs (to four), he could return you starter-worthy value on draft day.  
 
Greg Camarillo – Inked a $6 million contract in November of 2008 and three days later tore his ACL in a game vs. the Pats and was placed on the IR.  Lucky bastard.  It’s tough to comeback from that in under a year.   Leave him for the waiver-wire. 

Anthony Fasano – He put up 454 yards and seven TDs in his third year (2008) ranked him 9th (basic format) in TE production and marked his best statistical output .  Let’s start a new bullshit theory “The third year TE breakout rule”.   Parcells knew what he was doing when he traded for him before last season with the Cowboys.  He is a good candidate to maintain this production given the poo at WR for the ‘Fins.  Fasano owners should expect a similar numbers again in ’09 as the Dolphins offense, along with Chad Pennington, like to incorporate the TE.  Fasano is in a contract year. 

Total 2008 Points = 103

Analysis:  This is a transformed unit.  The Jack Long pick appears to have paid huge dividends.  They also signed Center  Jake Grove (Oakland Raiders) in March ‘09.  They have this unit locked up for a few more seasons at least, so this line will continue to gel.  

Analysis:  Miami has been a revolving door for offensive Coordinators as of late.  They have had a different OC the last five years and seem to have finally found a keeper in Dan Henning.   Henning has maintained an even balance between the run and pass over his career.  He dusted off the “Wildcat” formation in ’08 and the Dolphins enjoyed one of the more improbable turnarounds in league history going from 1-15 in ’07 to an AFC East leading 11-5; with the only notable changes to the offensive unit being  QB (Pennington) and Tackle (Jake Long).    The ‘Fins won’t be catching teams off guard again with the “Wildcat” formation, so expect the creativity to continue.

Incoming

C Jake Grove joins an O-Line on the rise from Oakland.   

Outgoing

C Samson Santele heads for Oakland.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest