The Patriots are doing their best impression of the 2003-2004 Los Angeles Lakers by bringing in nearly-spent veterans Fred Taylor, Joey Galloway, and CB Shawn Springs for a little more octane on both sides of the ball.   Karl Malone, Gary Peyton, and Bryon Russell were able to get the Lake-show past the Spurs (and T-Wolves during Garnett’s career year) but ran out of steam in the finals losing to the Pistons.  We’re not sure how it will pan out for Belichick and Co. but from a fantasy perspective they were solid moves that should help both the aerial and ground assaults in Boston. 

Belichick’s decision to let Cassel go in a trade was equal parts trust in Brady’s knee recovery, money concerns, and the fact that he may know what we suspect – that Cassel just isn’t that special.  It doesn’t take a lot to be a successful passer with Randy Moss as a primary target.  


 
Enjoy, KC.  We love Dwayne Bowe, but a Randy Moss he is not.  Belichick took a 2000 6th round pick in Tom Brady and turned him into a legend.  This is not to take away from Tom Brady in any way, but we just aren’t worried about the Cassel loss.  If Brady goes down again, Kevin O’Connell will struggle at first like Cassel did, but with the excellence around him, will be just fine within three or four games.

The Pats like to throw the ball…no matter what.  Even with losing Brady, the team attempted 51% of their plays through the air (534 of 1,047 plays which ranked 12th overall).  These numbers were down significantly from the record-shattering ’07 season in which they attempted 586 passes but still prove that as long as Moss and Welker are around as meal tickets, they will throw with whoever is under center.    While teams like Atlanta and Baltimore scaled back significantly with the passing game with first year signal callers under center in ‘08, the Pats made adjustments to their aerial attack.  In 2008, 57% of New England’s passing yards were after the catch (vs. 42% in ’07) as they used screens or short check-offs vs. the vertical game with an inexperienced Cassel.  The vertical game should return intact this season with the addition of speedy Galloway and Brady’s health.

The Patriots enjoy spreading the field with three,four, and five WR sets and leverage Brady smarts, quick trigger,  and accuracy. They also love to run their offense out of the shotgun.  Brady has consistently involved everyone in the offense thoughout his career.  In 2007, despite the gaudy numbers Moss and Welker registered, the 3rd (Donte Stallworth) and 4th (Jabar Gaffney) combined for 1,146 yards and eight TDs.  Brady threw TDs to eight different guys as well.

The Pats actually managed to improve their team rushing average in ’08 (4.4 YPC) despite the loss of Brady with largely the same mix of average or below average RBs.  Sammy Morris was featured more as everyone else went down with injury.    They finished the season 6th in rushing yards per game at 142.4, and were 4th overall with 21 rushing TDs.  This cannot be effectively explained away except to say that the Patriots are the most dynamically coached team in the league.  Sammy Morris was their leading RB.   It didn’t matter who was lining up in the backfield – except for Maroney who played only three games and averaged 31 YPG and 3.3 YPC.  He was nursing a broken bone in his shoulder, and while he is a supreme puss bag, he is a talented rusher when healthy.
 
Randy Moss alone adds to the running game as you can't cheat in the box and safeties have to play way back.   On Minnesota, Michael Bennett, Ontario Smith, Mewelde Moore, and Moe Williams are just a hand full of sub-par NFL RBs that have been fantasy worthy plays alongside Moss.  When he left, the team rushing average dropped from 4.7 YPC in 2004 to 3.9 YPC in 2005 with few changes to the RB staff.   Since arriving in New England in 2007, the rushing YPC has increased from 3.9 in 2006, to 4.1 YPC in ’07, to 4.4 YPC in ‘08.

Tom Brady – The Stetson man is ready to ride again.  The knee is fine.  He may start the season with some rust, but the talent that made him a 3x Super Bowl champion and other-wordly fantasy QB legend in ’07 will comeback to him by the end of the 2nd quarter of week one.   Belichick may not be going for it on 4th down with a lead and a division title wrapped late in the season like in ‘07, but a healthy Brady with Moss and Welker = a top three QB pick in the fantasy draft.  We would be lying, though, if we didn’t admit that an ACL/MCL double surgery plus subsequent scopes to clean out a nasty infection doesn’t scare us.  But how can you justify taking anyone ahead of him in the absence of any negative reports?  One thing is for sure, Belichick is famous for his ability to keep team news out of the spotlight.  Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

Kevin O'Connell  - He is penciled in as Brady’s backup.   He is a good athlete running a 4.61 40 yard dash at the Combine.  He spent the entire season as the QB2 behind Cassel and those practice reps are better than nothing.  He is a must- handcuff to Brady as is any QB in the league who gets to play with Moss and Welker.   He should be among the top two NFL backup QB selected in your fantasy draft (Leinart is the other).

Fred Taylor – He averaged over 5.0 YPC in 2006 and 2007 and dropped to 3.9 YPC in ’08.  The Jags lost five offensive lineman including three starters in ’08 – MJD’s average slipped, too –Fred still has some carries left in him and is the best fantasy RB option on the Pats’ staff.   It will be a nice change for him that defenses have to keep their LBs and Safeties in check with the WRs spread out wide; this didn’t happen on the Jaguars.  He will be starting by week one but will split carries with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk (on third downs), and Maroney.  As odd as this may sound, Freddie is a sleeper candidate starting his 12th year in the league.   Target him later in drafts, as his carries should stick at around 200 with another 18-20 receptions, and TDs in upper single digits. 
 
Sammy Morris – He is a good handcuff to Fred Taylor and should see about 100 or so touches as part of a three and potentially four-headed RBBC.  He posted career bests in all categories that matter in ’08 as Patriot RBs dropped like loads on a Naughty America set.

Laurence Maroney – He has gone from 1st round pick in the 2006 to a contender to replace Ellis Hobbs in kick-returning duties this season.  Whatever made him talented at the college level has not translated to the pros.  He is a dancer at the line of scrimmage and is as tough as generic dental floss.  His status atop depth charts this summer is purely diplomatic.  He won’t be by the time he sits out a few practices with injuries to his shoulder, knee, groin, and vagina.  He never carried a full load in college, why should we ever expect him to in the pros, much less on the Pats?  He is a late round flier guy at best.

Kevin Faulk – He is a third down back and has never been fantasy relevant. No need to plan for him.

Randy Moss – We’ve heard people question Moss’s age over this past off-season.  Moss should be the first or second WR off of draft boards this summer.  Period.   He’s 32.  That is not old for a WR.  If he’s lost a step, he’s made up for it in work ethic since arriving to the Patriots and being surrounded by winners.  Moss is not a saint, but is the most prolific WR in the league (and among the most in history) and has the best QB in the league.    We don’t feel Fitz has the potential to blow it out like Moss did in ’07, and Moss probably doesn’t either.  You shouldn’t go wrong with either of them if you can land ‘em.   We have Andre Johnson, Larry Fitz, and this Moss character neck and neck and neck as the top three WRs.  

Wes Welker – It’s hard not to be a fan of this working-class WR.  He is impossible to defend and is the best complement to Randy Moss.  Welker is deserving of his two All-Pro honors and will continue to shine in a passing offense built for him.   He will rarely, if ever, give you that blowout week that a WR in the top 15 should occasionally give you, but won’t drop a set of dog-balls on you, either.   He is a solid #2 WR for your fantasy team.

Joey Galloway – He is officially old at 37, but is one season removed from a 1,000 yard six TD season…with the Buccaneers who are famous for anything but putting talented QBs under center.  As the third WR option, he won’t be starter-worthy even if the Pats are able to recapture some of their glory from ’07, but is instead a solid handcuff to either Moss or Welker.  Target him as a WR5 in the later rounds of your draft.

Benjamin Watson – Took a nose-dive statistically as Cassel didn’t seem to be able to find him, but Brady spreads the wealth and will return Ben to fringe #1/#2 TE status.  We’d probably target Ben as a #2 TE this year, a.k.a. backup status, based on the fact that Brady is back from a missed season.   

Total 2008 Points = 148

Analysis:  This offensive line is in the league elite.  On the surface they look to be an over talented group but the four years of having the same line together really shines.  Kaczur was busted in April of 2008 with pain killers but was not suspended by the NFL.  If taking too many pain killers was worthy of suspension, much of the league would be in trouble.  Neal has a background in wrestling and martial arts and is a strong run blocker.  The other three are anchors and will continue to post solid numbers in the air and on the ground.  You can attribute the spike in sacks given up to Matt Cassel’s inexperience in decision making.  Getting Brady back should end that trend, very quickly.  In addition to having these 5 returning starters, NE signed/resigned a handful of lineman for depth… OT’s Damane Duckett and Wesley Britt, G Russ Hochstein, and C Al Johnson, and they also added via the draft.      

Analysis:  Josh McDaniels left the New England ranks to become Denver’s head coach, but it doesn’t matter.   At the time of this writing, Belichick was still toying with which puppet he would assign to the offensive coordinator title.  It is of zero significance.  Nothing is going to change except expect more passing with Brady back.

Incoming

RB Fred Taylor joins the New England running game.  He is aging, but Belichick has gotten production out of veterans before with Dillon and Morris.

TE Chris Baker comes onboard.  This may affect the production of Ben Watson.

WR Greg Lewis joins the Brady parade.  He is likely just another body to replace the loss of Jabar Gaffney.

WR Joey Galloway signed.  Galloway is old, but has been productive while healthy for the Tampa Bay offense.  If he can stay on the field and out of the trainer's room, he will be a nice addition to the strong WR corps.

Outgoing

WR Jabar Gaffney heads for Denver with his former OC Josh McDaniels.  This should have no effect on the NE air attack unless a slew of injuries happen.

QB Matt Cassel heads for Kansas City to be the starting QB for the Chiefs.  This could have a big impact on New England if Brady cannot return to form after his knee injury.

RB Lamont Jordan has signed with the Denver Broncos.  NE replaces the lost depth with Fred Taylor.

FB Heath Evans goes to the Saints.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest