The Brett Favre experiment can officially be deemed a failure.  He came to the Jets on a whim last season, got them to bounce their franchise QB, and led them right to the cusp of a post-season berth, only to have his gimpy shoulder prevent him from any late season heroics.  The impact he had on the team was convincing, though.  After a dismal 4-12 season in 2007, the Jets surged in 2008 to a 9-7 record and improved in virtually every facet of their game.  The passing game jumped from 25th in ’07 to 16th in ‘08.  The running game ranked 9th in ‘08, vs. 19th one year earlier.  The defense even bumped up from 18th to 16th in points allowed.
  
Favre “retired”, though, shortly after the ’08 season wrapped, and their top WR, Laveranues Coles, wisely bailed in free agency for the Bengals.  They have a new coach and scheme to implement around either a rookie QB (Mark Sanchez) or an uncoordinated QB (Kellen Clemens), so this team’s fantasy prospects appear to be murky, and that’s paying a compliment.  It will be a bumpy ride at first, but come draft day, there is some value to be had within this team, but it ain’t sexy. 

Titling this section “air assault” is a total misnomer; “offensive air ” better suits the situation.  This team will finish last in the league in pretty much every fantasy scoring passing statistic you can come up with, unless Ryan Fitzpatrick finds his way onto the field in Buffalo.  Their WRs are unproven, they have a rookie QB, and a brand new coaching staff and scheme.  

In his one and only season as a starter at the University of Southern California, Mark “Dirty” Sanchez tossed for 3,207 yards and 34 TDs and led his team to a 12-1 season and a Rose Bowl victory.  The Jets will look to the successes of two NFL teams that went to the playoffs with rookie signal callers (Baltimore and Atlanta) for cues on how to ease Sanchez into the NFL; this means the Jets will more than likely  finish with the fewest pass attempts in the NFL.  New coach Rex Ryan is a defensive minded guy, so even if you disregard that a rookie will be under center, one still would assume a heavier emphasis on running the ball.
 
There isn’t a weaker WR corps in the league.  Jerricho Cotchery is a decent WR2, but a WR1 he is not.  Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney have 33 NFL receptions combined, and Stuckey has 32 of ‘em.   Not one of these three guys is over 6’0” tall and the three have combined for 16 career TDs. 

It is intriguing to sift through the pros and cons of the Jets’ running game for 2009.  They ranked 5th as a team in yards per carry in ’09 behind an improved o-line (Alan Faneca and Damien Woody were new additions last season), and the lead-blocking of All-Pro crusher FB Tony Richardson.  The entire O-line comes back intact, and Richardson is coming back for one more year.  Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are pining for new deals but are under contract.  The best Jones can hope for is a gesture of good faith from the Jets in the form of a $$ raise to his current contract, and Leon Washington is likely to be offered an extension of some type.    All told, there are no key losses, and actually a gain in their bruiser 3rd round draft pick, Shonn Greene.

But how much did opposing defenses honoring Favre’s arm have to do with the ground game’s success in ’08? We will find out this season, but for now, in the absence of any empirical data, we are going to wager a guess of “a shitload” and call it a day.  Thomas Jones can expect eight in the box on every down he’s in the game.   Having one of the top run-blocking lines and an All-Pro FB leading the way will help, but with LBs and Safeties worrying less about what’s happening split out wide with no Hall of Fame QB under center (and no Coles), we could see the Jets’ rushing average take a tumble.

It’s going to be a long year for the entire Jets’ fantasy fleet.  We are avoiding everyone but TE Dustin Keller.  Thomas Jones will be drafted too high based on his gaudy ’08 numbers – we like the guy, but we like him to barely crack the top 20 fantasy RBs and there will be jabronis in your draft who bite early based on last year’s performance.  Is Sanchez the next Matt Ryan?  Probably not with those WRs. 

Mark Sanchez – Dirty is going to have it rough this season.  Stepping into the starting job with weak WRs and a new coaching staff that the veterans are not even familiar with is about the worst possible scenario for a rookie to be in.  However, he does have two dependable RBs in Leon Washington and Thomas Jones, and a strong offensive line.  The Jets will lead the league in rushing play percentage.  Sanchez should be drafted only in the last round, if at all.

Kellen Clemens – If Sanchez has it bad, then Clemens has it worse.  Clemens has completed only 52% of his passes over his career, and he has thrown 11 interceptions to only five touchdowns.  We already know he smells.  Un-draftable and should be out of the league in two years.

Thomas Jones – TJ is the most under-appreciated RB in pro football.  He is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL.  He has two more years left on his contract, but given his age, he is pining for a new one.  The Jets aren’t budging.  His choices are to holdout or show-up and deal.  A holdout would be pointless as the Jets’ posturing has been pretty clear cut – they drafted Shonn Greene in the 3rd round, so they are already planning for life after Jones.  It’s too bad because Jones, despite being 31, has some high quality years left running behind that offensive line.  He averaged 4.5 YPC for the highest of his career.  He has low mileage on his legs after being under-utilized in Arizona and Tampa the first four years of his career, so don’t let his age fool you.  Expect his touches to dip a bit with Greene stealing hand-offs in blowouts in either direction, and there could be a bunch of those with a rookie or Kellen Clemens under center.

Shonn Greene – Greene is a bruiser with a nose for contact, but not useful out of the backfield; probably a reason he dropped to the 3rd round.  It’s looking like the Jets future plans are for a true RBBC with Shonn doing the dirty work on 1st and 2nd downs and short yardage, and Leon Washington coming in on third and long and for a change of pace.  For 2009, expect the Jets to run Thomas Jones while games are within reach with Greene being used sparingly and more in blowouts.  He is a solid handcuff for Thomas Jones and should be planned for in rounds 14-17.

Leon Washington – Washington is a tiny little dude with some serious speed.  He averaged 5.0 YPC in '07 and 5.9 YPC in '08 in limited duty.  Up until now, he has spent the rest of his time kick/punt return duties where he consistently does damage.  He can expect the largest load of his career as the Jets should be attempting a ton of rushes with a rookie QB under center (no, Clemens won't last two games if he even wins the job).  He should be handcuffed to Jones once you have your starting lineup solidified.

Jerricho Cotchery – Jerricho is a solid receiver with the chance to prove himself as a WR1 this year.  He's the only legitimate target (besides Dustin Keller) that Sanchez has to throw to, so he will get plenty of looks.  The problem is that he has no support from the other receiver slot, so safeties and nickel backs will swarm his every move thus limiting his potential.  Even as a WR1 for the Jets, he's fantasy backup.

Chansi Stuckey – Great name, but he’s un-draftable.

David Clowney – Also great name, but also un-draftable.

Dustin Keller - He was a 1st round pick in ’08 and put up top-15 fantasy TE numbers in most formats.  He enters ’09 as a sleeper candidate.  Rookie QBs have a penchant to look for big intermediate route-running targets.  Keller is his guy.  Also, with Coles gone, there are no legitimate targets besides Cotchery.  Keller cracks our top ten TEs for the ’09 campaign. 

Total 2008 Points = 111

Analysis:  The NY Jets are returning all five starters and should build on a very solid year in 2008. 
 

Analysis:  Rex Ryan has taken over as the head coach for the NY Jets and will bring over some know how on Defense from Baltimore.  He has kept on Brian Schottenheimer to run his offense, but don’t be surprised to see a little more balance this year with the run.  He believes in the QB being a game manager and controlling the clock with the run.

Incoming

HC Rex Ryan comes over from the defensive side of the Ravens.

K Jay Feeley was re-signed.

Outgoing

QB Brett Favre retired; yeah, we’re waiting too.

TE Chris Baker was cut.

WR Laveranues Coles was cut and signed on with the Bengals.

OG Brandon Moore was cut.

RB Noah Herron was cut.

K Mike Nugent signed on with the Buccaneers.

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest