The Steelers are defending Super Bowl Champions.  How they accomplished that with a 29th ranked rushing attack, 17th ranked passing game, and ranking 29th in sacks given up will escape us forever.  They had a brutal 2008 schedule but they get a reprieve this year as they drew the NFC North and AFC West (cheese defenses such as KC, Denver, Oakland, Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago).  This should significantly help their anemic ’08 rush totals, however it may not do much to help their fantasy passing numbers given that there isn’t a lot of motivation for Tomlin to pass the ball when they are shutting down their opponents.  They also play Baltimore in week 16 – yuck.   They have three viable fantasy starters (their defense, Santonio Holmes, and Hines Ward), and it’s all backups after that.

They passed the ball 52.4% of their plays in 2008, but the bulk of those were in weeks 10-16 when their schedule got more difficult (Indy, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, Dallas, and Baltimore).  They threw an average of 36.7 passes per game in those games vs. 27.6 passes in the other nine contests.  With the easier schedule this season, there is potential for the latter trend to develop further into 2009 as they play nine games vs. teams with overall defenses ranked 20th or worse (Chi, GB, Det, Cle x 2, SD, KC, Oak, and Den).  Factor in the two they play vs. Baltimore (which tend to be low scoring affairs) and you have to consider that passing attempts could creep down or at best stay flat.  Ben did throw up a completely off-the-wall 7.9% TD ratio in 2007 on his way to 32 TDs on just 404 attempts, but history is against him ever repeating those gaudy numbers on so few passing attempts… check it:

An area that this team struggled with across the board in ‘08 was sacks.  Ben held onto the ball way too long as he tried to turn broken plays into something.  2008 was the first year he played all 16 games, but had to momentarily leave three different games due to being lit up (porous O-line – we get into it more below).  He’s a tough guy (he played the Super Bowl last year with cracked ribs), but we have to wonder how much more of this abuse his body can take.  We just don’t expect that a team will again win the Super Bowl allowing 49 sacks (ranked 29th) or 8.8 per pass attempt (also ranked 29th) to go along with a 29th rush and 17th pass offense.  We suppose their #1 ranked defense helped.

The Steelers’ ground game struggled in ’08 more than any season in recent franchise history.  After finishing in the top ten in rushing for the five years, including as high as 3rd in 2007, the Steelers plummeted to 29th overall with a 3.7 YPA.    The troubles started before the season did.  Check this mess -  The Steelers went with three new starters on their o-line with ORT Willie Colon and OG Kendall Simmons being the only full-time starters from the previous season.  C Justin Hartwig, OG, Chris Kemoeatu, and OLT Max Starks were all new faces to the starting line-up in 2008.  Once the season started it just got worse as Simmons went down for the season in week four and OG Darnell Stapleton took his place. Starks also ended up missing five games to injury.   The good news is that all five starters return in ’09 and all but Kemoeatu are in contract years.  There are few motivators more effective in life than the greenback.   They also added two O-linemen via the draft (2nd rounder OG Kraig Urbik who could start and then C A.Q. Shipley in the 7th). 

Injuries were a theme for the Super Bowl XLIII champs.  Willie Parker went down in week three and would miss  five of the next six games.  Highly touted rookie Rashard Mendenall then went down during week four and was lost for the season.  Mewelde Moore (of Vikings fame) and some dude named Gary Russell were all that remained until basically week 11.  Parker returned for good in week 11, and while he rushed effectively vs. the Chargers, he was totally ineffective in the following five games (this is when the Steelers took to the air).  

The ground game figures to get a lift from the aforementioned lighter schedule.  The team ranked 29th in rush YPA via their ’08 schedule and weak/decimated offensive line.  In ’09, nine of their games this season are against rush defenses ranked outside the top 20 including the 30th, 31st, and 32nd (KC, Oak, Det and the others are Cle x 2, Cinc x 2, Den, and GB)

Ben Roethlisberger - Ben could be a fantasy starter if he was on a team that attempted more passes.  His 2007 numbers were a complete anomaly and shouldn’t be expected as long as Mike Tomlin is around.  As it stands, Pitt’s defense is stout and the team will pound the ball with Parker, Mendenhall, and Moore.  Big Ben is nothing more than a fantasy backup, but among the first backups that will be drafted.

Charlie Batch – Not worth handcuffing.

Willie Parker – Pittsburgh is one of many teams employing a RBBC – just  as long as they don’t lose everyone in their backfield to injury like they did last season.  Willie will get the most carries, but will lose goal-line carries and third downs to Mendenhall.   He is not an effective pass-catcher and Tomlin isn’t crazy about his style.  The Steelers has a brutal schedule in ’08 and that eases up as they draw the NFC North and the soft  AFC West.  Parker enters the final year of his current contract and there have been no overtures from Steeler brass about an extension.  Parker a strong backup fantasy RB this season and is hovering inside our top 30 RB rankings.

Rashard Mendenhall – He was lost for the season in week four of ’08 and didn’t exactly light Three Rivers up in the limited action he saw.  He will assume short yardage and goal-line duties when healthy.  Beyond that he is a bit of an unknown as he only received full carries in his senior season at Illinois.   He should be handcuffed to Fast Willie Parker and can be had in rounds 10-12 or so.  

Mewelde Moore – He found his way onto the field as a starter due to the myriad injuries in Pittsburgh and actually played well over a four game stretch around mid-season.  If you can afford the roster space and are sitting on Willie and Rashard, go ahead and blow a last round flier on this putz.   

Santonio Holmes – He is a vertical threat that runs one of the nicest fly routes in the league.  We are ranking Holmes ahead of Ward (just slightly) because of his upside.  Ward is 33 and while he is a bone-crusher and one of our favorite NFL players, his upside is limited.   Holmes was dealing with the embarrassment of being caught with some herb mid-season so we are assuming that served as a distraction – those charges were also finally dropped in April.   Big Ben targeted him 114 times in ’08 (up from 84 in ’07), and he should be able to ride the momentum of his Super Bowl MVP crowning.    Holmes enters the 2nd to last year of his rookie contract so has plenty of motivation to post that breakout year everyone hoped for last year.  He should be drafted as a WR2 for your squad.   Take note of their schedule – the defending champs drew an easy one, and they could pass less because of it. 

Hines Ward – He brings it every year and will be the first to tell you that 33 isn’t old.  His mind-over-matter was enough to convince Steelers’ brass to ink him to a four year $22 million extension.   Pittsburgh is the only team that doesn’t boast a starting fantasy QB but two WRs worthy of fantasy starter status.  Ward will make a nice role player for you but don’t expect any upside with the selection.

Limas Sweed – He’s a big boy with a long way to go.  He struggled stepping in for Ward last year in the playoffs, granted it was the post-season and he was a rookie.   Rookie Mike Wallace is putting the pressure on him to fill that #3 WR slot vacated by Nate Washington.  He is not worth drafting, but could be a waiver wire pickup in the event of an injury.

Heath Miller – His per game targets, receptions,  and yardage have increased in each of the last three seasons.  He enters his 5th season (contract year but it’s expected that he will be extended) as a backup fantasy TE with some upside to eventually be a low-end starter.

Total 2008 Points = 117

Analysis:  For a Super Bowl Champion, the weak numbers they put up in the trenches last year are bizarre.  They have four of their five starters playing for contract, so an improvement would not be surprising.

Analysis:  Mike Tomlin and Steelers are running the ball well.  17th in the league in passing yards isn’t too bad, but they should improve with the skill players they put on the field.  They get it done when it’s needed.

Incoming

WR Shaun McDonald  

CB Keiwan Ratliff

Outgoing

OG Kendall Simmons (waived)

WR Nate Washington (signed with the Titans)

OT Marvel Smith (signed on with the 49ers)

QB Byron Leftwich (signed with the Bucs)

RB Gary Russell (waived)

LB Larry Foote

CB Bryant McFadden

FS Anthony Smith

OLB Arnold Harrison

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest