It was just 1.5 years ago that Vince Young was the darling of Tennessee after having guided the team to their first playoff berth in four seasons.  He was a pro-bowl (alternate) as a rookie.  All it took to unravel this mental midget was one poor outing, a sprained knee, and a few boos from his hometown fans.

"I was to the point where man, I didn't really want to play no more because of the fact that I was that hurt," Young said. "I was that hurt from the boos and all the different things that were going on. It was just so much for me — I didn't want to play no more." - Vince Young to ESPN in June 2009

Trim that bush, ya pussy.  They booed you?  Boo-hoo.  Vince’s disappearing act cost him a starting job and extended Kerry Collins’ career by a couple years and his bank account by over $15 million.  

Head Coach Jeff Fisher is really what makes this team click anyway, so it doesn’t seem to matter who is under center for the time being.  Fisher makes sure that the best players are on the field at all times, and that is both mentally and physically.  He had no problems benching Young for his AWOL act, and since Collins was able to come in and steer the ship, he stuck with him.  

Over the past three years, the Titans have ranked in the bottom five in the league in both passing  YPG and passing TDs, and actually ranked dead last in 2007 in passing TDs throwing only nine of them (three fewer than any other team in the league).  Their three year total of team passing TDs (35) resembles that of a top five fantasy QB…in one season.   There is plenty of room for improvement in 2009 as they made a few moves with the aerial assault in mind. 

First, they signed Nate Washington from the Steelers, who is a solid upgrade to anything they had on their squad in 2008 (Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Brandon Jones, etc).  They then selected Kenny Britt in the 1st-round of the draft.  The Titans have not drafted a WR in the first round since 1998 when they draft Biggie-sized bust, Kevin Dyson.  It’s not like these moves will do much to move Collins’ draft status much to the right as he is too old and in an un-friendly fantasy QB system. 

The second reason why we could see the Titans passing more often this year is due to the loss of Fat Albert Haynesworth.  Over the past two seasons, the Titans were 22-5 in games that Haynesworth played in and only 1-4 in games that he didn’t.   Albert really is a difference-maker as the Titans only gave up 14.3 points/game in 2008. When a team is giving up so few points, it makes it a lot easier to be able to concentrate on being a ball-control, rushing-style offense and they have the RBs to do just that. 

Over the past three years, the Titans have ranked in the bottom five in the league in both passing  YPG and passing TDs, and actually ranked dead last in 2007 in passing TDs throwing only nine of them (three fewer than any other team in the league).  Their three year total of team passing TDs (35) resembles that of a top five fantasy QB…in one season.   There is plenty of room for improvement in 2009 as they made a few moves with the aerial assault in mind. 

First, they signed Nate Washington from the Steelers, who is a solid upgrade to anything they had on their squad in 2008 (Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Brandon Jones, etc).  They then selected Kenny Britt in the 1st-round of the draft.  The Titans have not drafted a WR in the first round since 1998 when they draft Biggie-sized bust, Kevin Dyson.  It’s not like these moves will do much to move Collins’ draft status much to the right as he is too old and in an un-friendly fantasy QB system. 

The second reason why we could see the Titans passing more often this year is due to the loss of Fat Albert Haynesworth.  Over the past two seasons, the Titans were 22-5 in games that Haynesworth played in and only 1-4 in games that he didn’t.   Albert really is a difference-maker as the Titans only gave up 14.3 points/game in 2008. When a team is giving up so few points, it makes it a lot easier to be able to concentrate on being a ball-control, rushing-style offense and they have the RBs to do just that. 
Chris Johnson and LenDale White were the second most productive RB tandem in 2008 combining for 2,001 rushing yards and 24 TDs in 2008.  These totals were bested only by the Carolina Panthers’ tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, which should have ended the “Smash & Dash” nickname debate in its tracks.




You tell 'em, dough boy!

Fisher was methodical in how he used his tandem.  As the Titans sized up their opponents, CJ28 would see 62% of the first half carries, and when they had sufficiently wore down their opponents, he would incorporate a “heftier” dose of White giving him 51% in the 2nd half.  The closer the Titans get to the end-zone, the more they would use their chubby punisher.  In the red-zone, Johnson would only garner 39.1% of the carries over the year and even less at 26.3% once they got inside the 9-yard line.  White ended up with an astounding 15 TDs on the year with 14 of them coming inside the 10 yard line.  Johnson ended up with nine TDs with only four of them coming from inside the 9.  This is a potential red flag when considering CJ28 in 2009.

This well-balanced rushing attack isn’t without its flaws, though.  In the five games they had against the top seven rushing defenses, the Titans went  for only 305 total rushing yards, six TDs, and had an awful 2.4 yards/carry average.  In the other games, they boasted a 4.98 yards/carry average and amassed 18 TDs.  We suppose the Titans sit in the same boat as the rest of the league when it comes to this, but it shows that the Titans rush indeed can be stopped. 

Kerry Collins – This guy has more lives than Dennis Hopper.  He was able to capitalize on Vince Young’s infantile disappearing act after week one in 2008 by stepping in and guiding the Titans to a playoff berth, and has since signed a two year $15 million contract and heads into camp as the starter.   In fantasy drafts, one would have to be mighty desperate or in a 32 team fantasy league to funnel this guy into a starting lineup.  Collins is a low-end fantasy backup and should be drafted only in the final rounds, if at all.

Vince Young – Though Vince will start the year with a clipboard in his hand instead of the pigskin, he still holds the most worth when it comes to QBs on this team.  His passing game still leaves a bunch to be desired, but those legs of his are fantasy gold and if something should happen to Collins, or if the Titans get off to a rough start, Fisher would look to Young with little hesitation.  Young should be drafted higher than Collins based on potential, but not by much.

Chris Johnson – This 2008 1st-round pick out of East Carolina snuck up on everybody last year.  Everyone knew he was fast, but few expected the versatility he offered every Sunday.  He's a bit of a bonehead as he has been "tweeting" out to his followers looking for new TD celebrations as he wants to top the antics of both Terrell Owens and OchoCinco next year - always a bad sign.  Another bad sign is that CJ28 racked up 538 of his 1,228 yards in four games vs. the 21st (Bengals), 28th (Browns), 30th (Chiefs), and 32nd (Lions) ranked rush defense.  The Titan rush schedule is less forbidding in 2009. We like his touches to stick at around 300 and TDs should be in the low double figures.  CJ28 is a top ten fantasy RB this year.  Decent fantasy playoff matchups as he faces the Rams, Dolphins, Chargers in weeks 14, 15, 16 respectively. 

LenDale White – This tub of goo barreled in 14 of his 15 TDs last season from inside the 6-yard line running with 260 pounds of equal parts blubber and bone.  He showed up to OTAs having shed 30 pounds of lard and we question if this will cost him some power down in the red-zone.  At 200 carries and no potential for receptions out of the backfield, without another 15 TDs he will fall off of the fantasy map completely.  The Titan rush schedule is tougher in 2009 as they swap the swiss-cheese AFC West and NFC North for the NFC West and AFC East plus out-of-division games against Pittsburgh and San Diego.  He should be among the first handcuffs drafted (7-9th rounds in most drafts).   

Nate Washington – Washington is a really fast 6’1” receiver who is able to make the terrific catch at times, yet has been known to disappear when thrown into the spotlight.  Despite technically being the #2 guy on Tennessee, he holds more value on draft day than the “#1 guy”, Justin Gage, given that he is younger and has been stuck as the third WR option on a team (Steelers) that doesn’t pass as much as they run the ball.  Washington is a good late round flier pick.
 
Justin Gage – Gage is a big receiver standing at 6’4”, but he doesn’t possess the speed or elusiveness to do much with the ball after the catch.  He became the #1 receiver on the Titans over the past couple of years mostly due to the fact that they simply haven’t had anybody else worth mentioning.  He is barely draft-worthy now that a more talented Nate Washington is in the fold.  

Kenny Britt – He has the most upside of the Titan WRs, but will see nothing more than slot duties to start, and the third option on a team like the Titans means he’s waiver-wire fodder.

Bo Scaife – Scaife is a talented pass-catching TE who has gotten better each year he has been in the league.  The drafting of Jared Cook puts a bit of a damper on the future prospects of Bo on the Titans, but he should still be able to muster out a good backup fantasy TE year as Cook becomes familiar with the pro game.

Alge Crumpler – Alge had a great run but is at the tail-end of his career and will be basically useless in the fantasy world this year.  It’s really too bad, as we hate to see great names like that leaving fantasy war rooms around the country.  Crumpler is there to backup Scaife and also act as his mentor.  Crumpler will be a NFL coach within one year of his retirement.  He is good stock and knows the game well.

Total 2008 Points = 127

Analysis:  Tennessee’s success this year had a lot to do with the fact they dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They are returning five guys who all started 16 games last year and two of them will be fighting for contracts this year.  This is a very solid unit that gets it done with opening holes as well as protecting the quarterback.  Kevin Mawae is ancient but again made it to his 7th Pro Bowl.  Michael Roos and David Stewart were All Pro 2nd teamers as well.  Before heaping praise on the faux “Smash & Dash” tandem, give a nod to his #1 ranked offensive line.

Analysis:  Norm Chow almost figured out a way to Jeff Fisher fired.  Tennessee ranked 16th and then 22nd in points scored in the league.  Still, their offense lacked any creativity and after ’07, they had seen enough.  They brought back Mike Heimerdinger.  Mike had been the OC in Tennessee from 2000 to 2004 and now has re-taken the reigns on this running ground and pound machine.  He spent 1 year as the OC for the New York Jets in ’05.  You can see from 2008 what the approach is, but let’s take a quick peek at what he did in his other years. 

Incoming

QB Patrick Ramsey was signed

CB Demarcus Faggins was signed

WR-RS Mark Jones was signed

WR Nate Washington was signed

DT Jovan Haye was signed

Outgoing

CB-RS Chris Carr signed with the Ravens

OT Daniel Loper signed with the Lions

QB Chris Simms signed with the Broncos

CB Eric King signed with the Lions

WR Brandon Jones signed with the 49ers

DT Albert Haynesworth signed with the Redskins

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest